Saturday, June 26, 2004

Huzza Tom Vilsack

The Kerry people are looking at Iowa governor Tom Vilsack as a potential veep choice. Vilsack, raised in Pittsburgh, also appears to be something of a baseball fan. From a NYT bio running tomorrow:

His great-grandfather founded Iron City Beer, the Iowa governor's mansion has a "Pittsburgh room," and Mr. Vilsack says he wants to be buried in a Pirates shirt with Willie Stargell's number and signature on the front and Roberto Clemente's number on the back.
Right on, Governor Vilsack.

Huzza roster moves

In the car an hour or so ago, I heard Mac on the pregame show with the news that Vogelsong will pitch out of the bullpen for now. Burnett will stay up. The team has more patience than me with Josh Fogg & his Jimmy Haynes impersonation. That's a good thing I suppose; the GM has to be one of the most patient people in the organization.

Vogelsong will add a right-handed power arm to a bullpen that needs help. He's been pitching better lately. Here's hoping he comes through in the new role. Maybe he can do a creditable Brad Lidge impersonation for us.

Hooray for it looking like Burnett is here to stay with a chance to show us a dozen or more starts.

If the Bucs play their cards right, they can develop the organization's tremendous young starting-pitching depth into a $4M pitching staff. If they re-sign Kip Wells, I suppose that would be more like a $6M staff. Call these guys up one at a time, give them a half-season or more to show their stuff, and then fan them out around the various roles.

Another move that surprised me was Ward's transfer to the DL. Tony Alvarez gets another chance in his place. For more than a year I thought he was the future in CF. Tike Redman stepped it up with Mateo pushing him. Perhaps Alvarez can keep Redman honest too.

Alvarez is another right-handed outfielder. He hits for decent average, has moderate power, good speed, and while he doesn't walk much, he doesn't strike out much either. He turned 25 a month ago so time is on his side, too. Welcome back, Tony.

...Jeff Wallner of MLB.com reports the Vogelsong move now. Vogelsong's reaction is great, positive, upbeat, and both pitchers sound pleasantly surprised. Good solution to a nice problem to have.

..Bob Dvorchak's report indicates Vogelsong may be on standby to return to the rotation if/when the 'pen settles down and if/when Benson is traded.

...Rob Biertempfel also reports Vogelsong's role as long relief. He'll do some work that would otherwise go to Meadows or Torres.

Game 71, Oliver Perez at Aaron Harang

Ten games from the half-way mark, people. The season is flying by.

Of the Reds' big 3, only Sean Casey has done much against Oliver Perez in his brief career. Oliver threw a complete-game shutout against the Reds in late April.

Aaron Harang starts tonight against Kip Wells. Harang is coming off the DL. He was disabled for a sore right elbow in early June after two starts in which he gave up beaucoup hits and runs, and then he got roughed up in a rehab start for Louisville. The stiffness is gone from his elbow or was a few days ago when they cleared him to start, so he'll be throwing free and easy against our Bucs. Let's hope he fails to do anything about his 1.69 WHIP, his .325 BAA, or his 5.43 ERA. He's a huge guy (6'7", 240 pounds) but he doesn't strike out a ton (6.64 per 9 innings this year) and he gets an average groundball/flyball mix.

Craig Wilson has Harang's picture hanging in his locker. Jack Wilson and Randall Simon also have some hits off him.

Simon comes through in the clutch

From Bob Dvorchak's report on last night's game:

Rob Mackowiak got locked inside the lavatory in the visitor's dugout in the top of the eighth, with him due to bat. The door slammed behind him and wouldn't open. While maintenance men scrambled to find a key, Randall Simon grabbed a batting practice bat and whacked the door open after four or five tries.
Jeff Wallner at MLB.com adds this quote:
"I had to hit the door real hard to get Mack out of there," said Simon. "He was getting frustrated. He didn't know what to do."

Everyone who thinks Chulo isn't contributing, dwell on this tale for a minute. Such intangible clubhouse qualities don't come through in the statistics.

More on J.J. Davis.

Steve Novotney has a report on the decision. Rob Biertempfel has an entry in his notebook.

Bautista on waivers

Rule V secret agent Bautista is on waivers right now. Now that Tampa Bay is winning big and gunning for their first division championship, they've decided they can't carry him. He could be coming back.

Friday, June 25, 2004

Six-run seventh = six-buck fifth

Uhh. The bullpen has been a weakness lately.

Ray of light: Bobby Hill was first man off the bench to pinch-hit. He struck out against Danny Graves. I wonder if he can maintain his good pinch-hitting numbers if Mac starts calling on him first. Only one way to find out.

Ruben Mateo was designated for assignment which means, if I understand this right - and nothing is more complicated than this stuff - (a) he's on waivers and it could take nearly a week for him to clear, or (b) the team needs written permission from him to send him to Nashville, and he's thinking about it. He's in his sixth season so he should be out of options. Players with five full years have the right to refuse an assignment to the minors - this is the "five" part of the five-and-ten rule for veteran players - but it's not clear to me if Mateo's 250 games over five and a half seasons qualify him as that kind of veteran. I doubt it. Either way, there's a good chance he won't play again for Nashville. Who would claim him off waivers right now? Kansas City? It's hard to believe someone wouldn't take a flyer on the centerfielder.

I don't know why the Pirates didn't expose him to more right-handed pitching to see if he could hit well enough to be a viable alternative to Tike Redman. That said, he came cheap, and the Bucs have a lot invested in J.J. Davis. And Tike Redman has been a better player later. It was a lose-lose situation for the front office.

Game 70, Kip Wells at Jose Acevedo

Here are the 2004 Reds. Half way through the season, they have three guys on pace for 100 RBI seasons: Sean Casey, Ken Griffey, and Adam Dunn. All three of those guys are left-handers so it's too bad we won't get a chance to hit them with Oliver Perez and Sean Burnett this series.

Tonight, if Adam Dunn comes to the plate with a big smile, maybe it's because he's 9 for 21 off Kip with four extra base hits. Those numbers don't indicate much, except that Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn vs. Wells, but I'd come to the plate with a smile if I was remembering all my extra-base hits.

Pitching-wise, the Reds have had excellent work from their bullpen. With a lead John Riedling, Todd Jones, and Danny Graves have been outstanding. The starters have been so-so.

The steady diet of right-handed starters continues for the Pirate lineup. Earlier in the week it looked like Aaron Harang would start, but now I see it's going to be Jose Acevedo, who has struggled for a month or so. He's a little guy for a pitcher (6'0", 185 pounds) with a much better K/BB ratio than Aaron Harang. His 5.31 ERA probably has something to do with the fact that he's given up 17 home runs in just under 80 innings. OUCH. That's not good. Project that over 200 innings and you'd have 43 dingers. Yeah, he's a league leader in that category. Only Matt Morris of the Cardinals has given more joyrides (23). FWIW, Milwaukee's Wayne Franklin led the bigs in HR allowed last year with 36. Acevedo has also given up 23 doubles; opponents are slugging .517 off him. Here's hoping he forgot to eat his Wheaties this morning.

Kip Wells is a power pitcher, of course, who gets a lot of fly balls, so we may see the all-hands outfield - if the Bucs have such a thing these days. Watch his pitch count tonight. If he can get through three innings in 45 or 50 pitches, that's progress; if he's thrown 80 after four, he's the mystery Kip we've been seeing all year.

Jack Wilson on being an All-Star

Steve Novotney interviewed Jack Wilson about the improbability of Wilson being elected an All-Star. There's no doubt about it: he deserves to be an All-Star this year. I've heard that at least a dozen times from play-by-play guys covering other NL teams in their broadcasts of non-Pirate games. Some will disagree, but it's fair to say that a lot of people think Wilson should represent the NL at short this year.

Wilson sees it as a small-market thing. He may be right, but I think he's laboring under a greater disadvantage, namely, the losing team disadvantage. Due to their long and distinguished history as a National League franchise, the Pirates are one of the more popular teams around the country. Most Pirate fans are slumbering with the "wake me when something good happens" look on their faces. (Exceptions can always be found, however.)

Pirate fans have never enjoyed teams of "lovable losers." Losing is not comfortable with us. Look at our mascot - since when has this team based its appeal on being cute? Even gutsy doesn't do it when it's not backed up with BOOTY I mean W's.

When the team starts to win more than they lose, many old fans will be back, and many new fans will join the crowd. When the Pirates put together back-to-back 90-win seasons, we can expect some of their better players to win All-Star elections. In the meantime, it sucks for Jack. But if you don't win with this franchise you can't expect the fans to get too sentimental about all the double plays you turn.

Tipping pitches

Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune has this dissertation on tipping pitches. Print a copy and give it to J.J. Davis. Maybe it will help as he studies the game from the bench.

Roster move today

J.J. Davis will join the team in Cincinnati and the Pirates will have to move a position player off the roster to make room. My guess is Ruben Mateo will head back to Nashville. I won't like it, but it makes sense that Davis would displace the last outfielder recalled.

...maybe not today. In his notebook, Joe Rutter explains they could keep Davis on the DL a bit longer, too.

Thursday, June 24, 2004

Burnett good

The Bucs just lost to Roger Clemens and Brad Lidge, but Sean Burnett was good tonight. 109 pitches got him through seven. Except for the high walk number (4), he was just as we expected - five hits, one K, no home runs. Burnett passed this test, on the road, against a lineup that includes more than one future HOFer. The best thing for Burnett's development would be to leave him in the rotation and see what he can do in 13 big-league starts. Something would have to give for this to happen.

Read Bob Dvorchak's report for more & better.

Joe Rutter's report suggests McClendon will make the decision on Burnett's immediate future after Friday night's game. Sounds like plan A will proceed if Wells is healthy and pitches well. Question, then: what the heck is plan A?

Dave Williams, PCL All-Star

Found a press release here.

Game 69, Sean Burnett at Roger Clemens

Roger Clemens is just your garden-variety Hall of Famer coming off two bad starts.

Bob Dvorchak reports Burnett's respect for Clemens in a recent notebook. Joe Rutter was all over that too. The old guy / young guy angle has been picked up by the wire services, too.

The Pirates used the same lineup the last three games. Why expect anything different? Maybe Mackowiak or Bay will need a day off to nurse some achy body part.

Of course, none of the Astros have seen Burnett. Berkman switch-hits and crushes righties and lefties alike. Elsewhere in the lineup, Craig Biggio has been pounding lefties this year; Ensberg, Bagwell, and Everett have been pretty impotent against them.

No Pirate has more than six at-bats against the Rocket.

Looking ahead, we see the Pirates will head to Cincinnati after tonight's game. For the Reds today, the Mets gift-wrapped an easy victory real pretty. Mike Cameron got naked in centerfield and delivered it singing-telegram style. Sean Casey left the game with an ache in his hammy. I'd never hope for an injury to the Mayor but it would be OK if he sits out this weekend's series.

Double play rates

According to BP's measure of double play rates, Simon is the second-worst Pirate in that department. The top double-play maker so far this year? Bobby Hill. (Scroll down to the bottom to see the worst in this department.) Hill has six GIDPs in twenty-three opportunities; Hill has six in eighteen.

I'm not sure this is the way to measure the damage a hitter does with his tendency to GIDP. An overall measure would subtract base hits in GIDP opps from GIDPs. Anytime you put the ball in play you risk the GIDP, and you have to put the ball in play to generate scoring. Hill has surely done more in the other twelve opps than Simon has in his other seventeen. At least their current hitting averages suggest that.

Still, let the record show that, by this (flawed) measure, Simon's not the worst Pirate in the GIDP department.

Castillo learning third

The great Ed Eagle reports today:

Rookie second baseman Jose Castillo, a converted minor league shortstop, will begin taking ground balls at third base during batting practice in the coming weeks. McClendon believes the 22-year-old has the potential to develop enough power at the plate to contribute offensively as a corner infielder. "I think he'll get stronger," said McClendon. "Projection is always a tricky thing, but I believe he will eventually hit for some power.""
The Bucs may be looking ahead and wanting more room at 2B and SS for Bobby Hill, Freddy Sanchez, Terry Shumpert, and Jeff Keppinger.

Mac on Chulo

Mac got in a good one about Simon, and Bob Dvorchak caught it:

McClendon had already decided that Vogelsong wasn't coming back for the seventh. His pitch count had reached 107, and McClendon had been itching to give his bullpen a lead to protect. So with two runners aboard, the manager sent up Randall Simon to pinch hit. Simon, who has underachieved at the plate, drew only his third unintentional walk of the season to set up Kendall.

"That might have been the biggest accomplishment of the night," McClendon said of the walk to Simon."

Bwa-ha-ha.

World Cup nonsense

We don't give too many damns about the World Cup of baseball and think it's contrary to the interest of MLB in all ways save their current & asinine & ultimately self-destructive bent on world conquest globalization. Look here for an "AP Exclusive" on the effect a March tournament would have on the Spring Training schedule. This is a PR disaster waiting to happen, and far stupider & annoying that having opening day at 5 a.m. in some other country.

Bullpen woes

Bob Dvorchak sums it up in his notebook. Note the physical problems: Meadows has a sore back; Johnston has a sore elbow. (2pm update: Johnston just went on the DL; Mark Corey is up in his place.) Grabow is already putting on career-high appearance numbers.

Who could stabilize the bullpen better than Josh Fogg?

Vogelsong should stay up

Joe Rutter writes about the coming roster move to resolve the current six-man rotation. Once these guys come up, if I directed this soap opera, they'd stay the rest of the season. If you want to evaluate players, you need good stats. Stats must be interpreted in context, and if the context is shaky and unstable, the stats don't mean as much. Better to isolate variables and see what you get that way.

Joe writes:

If Burnett stays, the Pirates could put Vogelsong in the bullpen. Or Burnett could return to Class AAA Nashville, with a reliever joining the Pirates. A decision might not be reached until after Kip Wells' start Friday in Cincinnati.

...

McClendon doesn't think sending Vogelsong to the minors is the answer.

"I believe Ryan Vogelsong will be better served working under (pitching coach) Spin Williams than having him go to Triple-A and have him dominate at that level," he said. "

Either one of those guys could be dynamite in the bullpen.

If a Benson trade is in the works, and we need to buy a little time to make it happen, why not bump Fogg to the bullpen for a few weeks and keep Burnett and Vogelsong rolling in the rotation? The team could more or less schedule Fogg to come in after Burnett since it's not likely Burnett will be pitching too many complete games. Fogg is not a big-ego crybaby and he would understand how this could help the team develop these young arms.