Game 5: Pirates at Marlins

Paul Maholm and Mark Hendrickson at seven.

Game 4: Pirates at Marlins

Matt Morris and Scott Olsen at seven, in what could be another epic battle of the bullpens.

Game 3: Pirates at Braves

Zach Duke and Mike Hampton at seven.

Game 2: Pirates at Braves

Gorzelanny and Jurrgens at seven.

Undefeated

Pirates have the day off. They can bask in the glory of 1-0.

Game 1: Pirates at Braves

Snell and Glavine at 7.

HW Readers' Poll 2008

Only three more days, so last chance for season predictions. If you have a minute, please humor us in the comments:

1. How many games will the Pirates win in 2008?
2. Will the Pirates finish in last place? If not, who will?
3. 2008 whipping boy?
Any other predictions?

I'll start.
1. 66
2. We will.
3. Although my gut says Matt Morri$, it doesn't seem like he qualifies as a "boy", so I'll go with team player/enigma Ronny Ballgame.

Last year, I aced this thing. I predicted 67 wins (bested by seaks, who nailed 68), another basement victory, and that DL and Creech would be fired. This last prediction sparked the Great DL Debate of 2007, which ended with a pink slip for DL and six beers for me. I can't imagine a better outcome than that from these predictions. Not unless I predicted they'd play well and they did, which I won't predict because I don't see it. We will lose. A lot. Again. Same old reason : not enough talent, offense, pitching, and depth. Some will find that too negative, but it's just my honest prediction. It will take years for Coonington's hazmat crew to clean up the mess they waded into.

As for other predictions, Wiggy is back in the division. I see Wiggy bowling over a Bucco, either injuring Doumit or sliding untouched while Ronny drops the ball. Maybe both.

Pirates at Twins

Game at 1.

Pirates at Yankees

Tom Gorzelanny pitches today at 1pm.

Dejan Kovacevic foresees Sean Burnett hanging back. I disagree with the idea that the cut is "unkind," as the PG headline writer suggests. We all know that Spring Training stats do not mean much, and we also all know that the Pirates are going to use a whole bunch of pitchers this year, as they do every year; Burnett will get his chance soon enough.

Plus, as Kovacevic reports, Burnett and his wife are having a baby this week. It's not a good, but a great idea to leave him off the 25-man roster for another week or two or three. Congratulations, Sean Burnett.

Tigers at Pirates

Another game today at 1.

As you probably know by now, the Pirates made some moves to clarify the bullpen situation. As usual, Dejan Kovacevic and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette are the best places to get the lowdown. Jaret Wright and Byung-Hyun Kim are gone; Doug Mientkiewicz makes the team, as expected. Management did the right thing with Kim, for sure, so let's give credit, it's due. (Hands over some credit.)

They also get credit for picking up Yates at the annual end-of-March reliever fire sale. This required patience and faith; I think the previous GM would have acquired more "sure things" at high off-season prices when it became clear to many that the Pirates did not have a lot, on paper, for the bullpen. (Hands over some more credit.)

This leaves some uncertainty in the bullpen. As DK writes:

Removing Kim and Wright leaves six relievers - Franquelis Osoria, Sean Burnett, Phil Dumatrait, Evan Meek, Masumi Kuwata and Hector Carrasco -- for three openings. Huntington said he plans to make final decisions in that regard in the next two days.

If Osoria's a lock, as we've been hearing, it's five guys for two spots. Kuwata and Carrasco, I'd cut right away. Dumatrait and Meek I'd want to keep, so my decision would be to buy Burnett a fancy new suitcase and a fancy new cell phone. I'd tell him to keep the phone on and the suitcase packed, and I'd put him on the bus to Indiana. He goes down because he can, and he'll be back all quick like because teams always need good arms.

Twins at Pirates

Ian Snell makes his last spring start this afternoon.

The Pirates should also cut some guys and not cut some other guys.

Pirates at Rays

Matt Morris will stand up straight at 1pm today.

Dejan Kovacevic returns to the PG with this bullpen analysis. I'd a thought the Pirates would keep Dumatrait in a starting role, but it appears he must be kept on the roster or the Pirates lose him.

So the story today is the Pirates are looking at Capps (CL), Marte (LHP), Grabow (LHP), most likely Burnett, who has had a great spring (LHP), Osoria (RHP), Dumatrait (LHP), five starters, and then one more guy. Kovacevic thinks Kim (RHP) or Meek (RHP).

Burnett has been tougher on righties than lefties, as Kovacevic explains, so he could be counted in the RHP column.

If the choice is Kim or Meek, no doubt I'd take Meek. Kim has not been good, and he's not likely to be good in April. There's no point in looking beyond that point when considering not-looking-good veteran relievers. If the Pirates let him go, someone will likely grab him, and on the other hand, guys like this are often made available. There must be a few veteran relievers as good as Kim, and now on other teams, who are likely to get cut soon and made available to the Pirates.

Guys like Meek, on the other hand, are harder to come by. I would carry him and keep him so long as he pitched well, as he's doing now. If he becomes a mess, you give him back.

Finally, there should be a chance the Pirates start the year with only four starters. With all the rainouts and days off the team usually sees in April, it's possible the Pirates won't need a fifth starter for weeks. (EDIT: But not likely. As azibuck comments, unless a game is cancelled in Atlanta or Florida in week one, they will need a fifth starter on Sunday, April 6.) So the team could carry Meek and Kim. It's always possible that one of the other relievers will need some time on the DL, so if the team gives up one of those guys to carry a starter they don't use, that's somewhat unfortunate.

Rays and Yankees

The Pirates play the Rays today and the Yankees tomorrow.

In other news, Freddy Sanchez looks to be slow healing again, as Jenifer Langosch reports he was in more pain after playing.

And Paul Meyer gathers quotes about Evan Meek. It does not sound like he will be setting up for Matt Capps in 2008; my guess is we'll see Hector Carrasco doing the Jose Mesa in some of those eighth innings.

Reds at Pirates

Game at 1.

Pirates at Phillies

Grapefruit league game at 1.

We'll probably see some of those right-handed relievers.

Right-handed bullpen

So I guess the Pirates carry 12 pitchers, including one closer and five starters, with two left-handed setup guys, two right-handed setup guys, and two swingmen and/or mop-up guys in the bullpen. They may not need a fifth starter until mid-April, so they could start the season with an extra mop-up guy or a three-man right-handed setup team.

On the left-handed side, I expect Grabow and Marte, and Burnett (or Fossum) as a swingman.

On the right-handed side, I count eight guys for, at most, four jobs: Carrasco, Dessens, Kim, Kuwata, Meek, Osoria, and Wright. I have no idea how this will turn out. Osoria and Meek have achieved good results this spring, and they are young; Carrasco has pitched better than I expected, but he is an old man at 37. Dessens got a late start, and he looks more like a swingman or spot starter than a setup person. With Burnett doing well, it does not seem urgent to have him on the roster in early April. Kim and Kuwata have not pitched so well, and they seem to be competing for "guy with funky style" job -- if there is one of those. Jaret Wright has pitched five spring innings without a strikeout, and like Fossum, he does not look like someone to press into a setup job. Kim may also be someone to steer toward a AAA starting job or a swingman role. The Pirates have no shortage of these swingman/mop-up/seventh starter guys.

Did I forget anybody?

It looks to me, after half an hour's thought, that some two of Meek, Osoria, and Carrasco will get right-handed setup jobs. It also looks possible that all three could make the roster for Opening Day.

And all three have been pitching every third day, so maybe we'll see Osoria and Meek as the second and third pitchers in the next game.

Yankees at Pirates

Matt Morris will show good posture tonight.

Adam Sandler will DH and lead off for the Yankees.

Slot-busting

Getting the car repaired this morning, I read in a recent Sports Illustrated - can't find the text online - a piece by Jon Heyman about the Tiger's "slot-busting" draft strategy. Basically, they gamed the league's prohibition on paying "over slot" to scoop up the best talent in the draft. It cost more, but it's still cheaper than signing free agents. The example touted was Rick Porcello. (Biography, recent news.)

Obviously, this is what the Pirates have to do to compete. They can't afford top talent on the free agent market. They can't win championships without top talent. The only strategy that might bring top talent to this team will focus on the draft. There are other things that can be done. They can make smart trades, and they can be the team that best educates its young players. But the draft has to be the heart of it all. They have to get the best players available in every round.

And that means they will have to pay "above slot." Given Coonelly's job before he joined the Pirates, this issue has been, for me, one of the bigger tests for him. None of us believe Littlefield truly rated Moskos above Wieters in pure baseball terms. It appears that he picked Moskos to prove that he can eat shit and like it. It was a suck up move. "Oh yes, Boss, don't worry, there will be no conflict; we will not rock the boat; I don't know why the other 29 teams rate Wieters higher than Moskos; we don't; thank goodness we will avoid the dilemma that would be how to sign Wieters."

All that said, Moskos is also great, and he doesn't need to keep hearing it from the fans that he's not Wieters. But it's plain as the nose on your face that the Pirates need offense, and that they did not need another relief-pitching or even starting-pitching prospect with that pick.

Coonelly and Huntington are doing pretty well, I think, so far. The big test is not going to be the April win-loss record but what they do in the draft. Do they put the team first, or do they put the league first?

The team could also take a lesson from the Steelers: you want to be the team that young players most admire for draft prowess. Getting drafted by the Pirates should be a distinction, and not a curse or insult. Ask Danny Moskos. Since they are not winning games at the big-league level, all the Pirates can do to remedy their loathsome reputation with young players is pay them better than other teams -- and become known as the team that stops at nothing to get the best young players. Then Pittsburgh may not be the place to win a championship next year, but it would be one of the best places to go right out of the draft.

If not hiring players represented by Scott Boras is somehow good for the Pirates, then I would love to hear what Pirate-first arguments support that position.

Pirates at Reds

Game at 1. Paul Maholm and Freddy Sanchez will start.

Blue Jays at Pirates

For St. Patrick's Day, the Pirates will wear green capes in today's 1pm game.