Capping the Steelers-Colts game, part 1

The over/under is 47. In the average game, the teams combine for about 40-42 points. This big spread, medium-to-high over/under is typical for Colts home games this season. Unlike the Dome Rams of a few years ago, the Dome Colts have not had consistently enormous over/unders out of respect for their defense. They have not been predicted to win shootouts but to win blowouts.

In 2005, the Colts hosted four bad teams. The schlubs were Cleveland (the line was visitor +13.5, over/under 46.5), St. Louis (+13.5, 46.5), Houston (+17.5, 44.5), and Tennessee (+15.5, 50.5). (I am throwing out week 17.) We don't see many games with medium totals (44.5) and huge spreads (17.5) since they forecast scores like 31-13. That's a ballsy prediction. Anyone bettor who believes in parity or even the "any given Sunday" proverb should be all over those unlikely predictions. The Colts went 4-0 against those lousy teams, covered 2 of 4, and went over 2 of 4.

But so what; those were Homecoming games for Tony Dungy's team.

The Colts faced three quality opponents at home. They were Pittsburgh (+8.5, 45.5), Jacksonville (+8.5, 45.5), and San Diego (+7.5, 51.5). The Colts won two of three. They covered only once, and all three games went under.

So even when the Colts were firing on all cylinders, they were generally overrated as scoring machines. Even when they won and stifled the opponent's offense, they failed to score enough to drive the total over.

The Steelers covered six of eight on the road, and they were favored in all but two. In only one road game they failed to cover (the Indy game). The Steelers went under in every one of their road games, except the San Diego game, which went over by two points. The under must be a good bet when you like the Steelers to win. Knowing how they like to win games, it makes sense.

So without even capping the Steelers' chance of winning this straight up, I am liking the under. It makes sense. The Steelers D has been very good on the road, and the Colts' offense has been overrated at home.

I don't expect a high-scoring game. My guess is that there's maybe a sixty percent chance the score is at or below the 23-21, 21-17, 24-17 range.

In the next installment, I'll look more at winning and losing.