Football tonight

The Steelers have NOT established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL. One good season doesn't do this for me. They went 15-1 in 2004, but they were a 6-10 team in 2003. The 2005 season could be like the 2004 season for the Chiefs. The Chiefs went 8-8 in 2002, 13-3 in 2003, and 7-9 in 2004.

Football teams that take their greatness for granted will disappoint their fans. Are the Steelers up to this? I don't know. But ask yourself this: would we have had this kind of contract-holdout distraction one year ago?

I'm not convinced the 2003 record has much bearing on the Steelers' 2005 season, but I'm also not convinced the 2004 season does much to meaningfully predict the 2005 season. I guess any prediction should begin at zero, that is, at 8-8. What are the Steelers showing us right now to suggest they are better than an 8-8 team? Not much, but the same could be said for almost every team in the league. The only exceptions would be the ones that have posted winning season after winning season after winning season.

Another thing. Most of you have been over this before, so forgive me if this is tired stuff by now. Ben Roethlisberger is good, but he's not going to complete 66% of his passes over the course of his career. Dan Marino completed 59%. The all-time completion PCT record-holders are Steve Young (64%), Joe Montana (63%), and Troy Aikman (61%). I'm not predicting disaster for Big Ben, but teams will make adjustments - remember the New England playoff game - and it's not at all likely that he will be as effective in 2005. Even if he is really, really good - say a Hall-of-Fame QB - he's not going to live up to the 2005 standard.

For all we know, he'll be kicking a laundry cart after a 3-5 start. He has to play pretty well for what, another dozen seasons, before anyone should be serious with with Marino / Young / Montana stuff.

And as Scoop always notes, it's been part of Cowher's legacy to delight when expectations are low and disappoint when expectations are high. I'll be keeping my expectations pretty low.

I would not be shocked to see them go 7-9 in 2005. Eight or nine wins may be more likely, but I'd go with seven before I'd go with ten.

So I say, brace yourself, Steeler fans.

What are your thoughts?