The Bucs have gone 11-7 since last April 25 (and 9-5 so far this month). The numbers for that period are below. Here are some observations and thoughts that struck me as I looked at them for thirty minutes:
- They hit 24 home runs in this three-week period. Those with more than one: Daryle Ward 6, Jason Bay 5, Lawton, Castillo, Jack Wilson, Wigginton, Cota, 2 each.
- Jason Bay has been on a tear. 12 of his last 23 hits were for extra bases. Here's a list of some NL players who had more than half their hits go for extra bases in 2004: Russ Branyan, Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, Vinny Castilla, Jim Thome, Luis Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Brad Wilkerson, Ken Griffey Jr.
- Craig Wilson was doubling like crazy when he went on the DL.
- With six strikeouts in 65 at-bats, Darlye Ward has been making a lot of contact. Last year he struck out 45 times in 293 at-bats, and finished the year at .249 / .305 / .474. If he maintains the 90% contact rate, he could hit .300 this year, because when Ward hits the ball, he hits it hard. 11 of his last 21 hits went for extra bases.
- Neither Bay nor Ward are hitting at a rate that I would regard as unsustainable. Both players saw 47% of their hits go for extra bases in 2004. For both players, then, the lofty extra-base hit percentage is just a bit above what they showed they can do last year. Watch Ward's strikeouts. They are the difference between a .249 / .305 / .474 line and a .323 / .343 / .677 line.
- With seven strikouts in 42 at-bats, Jose Castillo does not look like a .300 hitter. But who cares? He doesn't need to hit .300 to be a major asset. He has five extra base hits and looks to be on his way to that breakout year we all predicted. Last year he struck out 92 times in 383 at-bats. If he maintains that 1-in-6 strikout rate and continues to show this decent amount of power, he'll finish the year with something like 25 doubles, 16 home runs, and a line like .275 / .325 / .440.
- Rob Mackowiak has shown improvement with the eye with degeneration in the bicep. Another Pirate who has cut down on the strikeouts, he whiffed eight times in his last 47 at-bats. That's better than last year, when he struck out 114 times in 491 at-bats (17% vs. 23%). On the season, he's somewhere in between, so some modest improvement appears to be real. What's not been there the last three weeks, though, is the power. Last year, 37% of Mackowiak's hits went for extra bases. Over the last three weeks, his hits have rolled to the wall at about half that rate. Now at .309 / .374 /.392 for the year, he appears to be morphing into Jason Kendall. Has Mackowiak been tapping the easy singles into the holes the opposing infield has given him? Even if this is the case, I doubt he can sustain the .319 batting average with that many strikeouts. (Last year, Jason Kendall hit .319 / .399 / .390 with only 41 strikeouts in 574 at-bats.) If a player reduces his strikeouts from 23% to 17%, he's going to add about twenty points to his batting average. The K reduction plus the six walks in the last 47 at-bats, then, suggest the possibility of real OBP improvement. Last year Mackowiak finagled 50 walks in 491 at-bats. He paired that with a low BA and only finished with a .319 OBP. If he continues to improve his command of the strike zone - striking out a bit less, walking a bit more - he could finish the year with a league-average OBP of .340. Or even higher if he can houdini a .300 BA like Jack Wilson did last year. But where is the power? I'd rather see a .330 OBP with a .420 SLG than a .350 / .395. These aren't All-Star numbers but they are great for a player with Mackowiak's defensive ability and flexibility.
- Jack Wilson is now hitting the ball as hard as he did in 2004 (38% of his last thirteen hits have gone for extra bases vs. 32% for all of 2004). He's striking out at the 2004 pace, too, so all he needs now is a little luck. I expect he'll hit .275 the rest of the way.
- We knew Ty Wigginton could hit if he was not a starter, or only an emergency starter. This is what he did with the Mets. We also knew he was streaky. Well, the Bucs have demoted him into a part-time player and he has gotten hot. I've been impressed to see McClendon resisting the urge to start him after every multi-hit game. In his current role, he has value. Will he lose his value if his role is expanded? This is a bird-in-the-hand issue. I'm happy with what he's giving us now. There will be no Free Ty Wigginton t-shirt campaign coming to PNC Park. That may be unfair, but he had his chance in April and blew it. Let him fight for PT Craig Wilson-style. It appears to be good for him.
- Cota has been an all-or-nothing thug at the plate. Dave Ross has hit like we expected when Littlefield acquired him for a three-bedroom home in Ohioville.
- Freddy Sanchez, Bobby Hill, and Tike Redman have been non-factors. There must be some hidden vigorish in there somewhere.
BayJa PIT 18 77 0.319 0.367 0.639 30
WardD PIT 16 67 0.323 0.343 0.677 25
WlsnC PIT 09 30 0.435 0.606 0.739 07
Lawtn PIT 18 78 0.260 0.313 0.411 20
Cstlo PIT 10 43 0.357 0.372 0.595 16
Mkwak PIT 17 53 0.319 0.396 0.383 11
WlsnJ PIT 17 65 0.217 0.277 0.383 12
Wggtn PIT 10 32 0.276 0.364 0.552 10
CotaH PIT 10 39 0.229 0.308 0.486 09
RossD PIT 09 26 0.208 0.241 0.333 05
Snchz PIT 12 31 0.200 0.226 0.267 04
Redmn PIT 15 34 0.156 0.200 0.250 06
Sadlr PIT 03 08 0.250 0.250 0.625 02
HillB PIT 11 25 0.130 0.192 0.130 05
Resto PIT 04 09 0.000 0.222 0.000 01
Amzga PIT 02 04 0.000 0.250 0.000 01
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