Four and nine

Lots of stats in today's Stats Geek.

I thought the Bucs would improve this year. I've said I'll wait until they've played 19 or 21 games to evaluate the prospects of the season. The hole they've dug, however, is getting large enough to lie in. The chances of a mixed or positive outlook after 21 games are fading.

The pitching, overall, has been about what I expected. And it shows promise. Dave Williams looks good to me. Ollie should come around.

Obviously the problem is the hitting. Here are the numbers. Like I said, I don't like samples smaller than three weeks.

Lawton has been as we hoped - his .288 / .403 / .423 is almost best-case scenario.

Jack Wilson may come back to earth this year, but there's no way he finishes with a 426 OPS. Hidden vigorish there. Ditto with Wigginton and his 322 OPS and Ward with his 472 OPS.

What's no consolation, however, is that the team, as a whole, pretty much choked when the games mattered the most -- at the start of the season. This is no reason to fire McClendon. A mid-season manager change won't help. I find the prospect of one somewhat disgraceful and dishonorable.

I've always thought that it was more difficult to play well when your opponents were taking you seriously. When the Bucs got on a roll last year, what discounted the roll for me was the fact that they started as the laughingstock of the NL Central. They swept the Cardinals late last June in part because Tony LaRussa used the three-game series to rest Jim Edmonds.

Mac may be right, the Bucs might rip off five wins starting now. What I want to see, though, is not some winning from the bottom of the grave. I want to see some winning when the team is at .500, when the team is within a few games of first place. Until that happens, I'll be more and more of the opinion that many of our players just aren't fit to start for a winning team.

We have a number of starters who are getting what will be there only or last chance to play as a big-league starter. I'm sure they are making the most of this opportunity. If they don't get it done, they can't get it done.