KHALIFA projections

That great comments thread on who is likely to improve versus who is likely to not improve inspires me to do my own survey.

Before I bust down the forty-man roster all fists-of-fury with the projections, I want to be clear about the meaning of my remarks. First, be it known that any baseball player can suddenly suck, overnight, just like that. It could be an injury, it could be Steve Blass disease, it could Rick Ankiel complex, it could D. Ward vs. the Buffet Table. Who knows. It can happen to anyone.

Second, I'll borrow some terminology from Nate Silver's PECOTA system. One of the best things about it, I think, is the Breakout - Improve - Collapse - Attrition breakdown. I regard the players this way. When I say Jose Castillo is a good breakout candidate, I'm not saying he will breakout. I don't know that. I'm saying he has as good a chance of breaking out as any other Buc. Castillo is not exempt from Be-it-known #1. He could be the second coming of Warren Morris. When I say that I think Ward is likely to improve, I don't mean he has no chance of Collapse or Attrition. He could suck more than ever. Or, a year from now, he could even be working the other side of the buffet table as a chef in the food-service industry (with his Jon Anand chef's hat). I make no guarantees. Even if Castillo only has, I'd guess, something like a 6% chance of being out of work six months from now, that's still a pretty likely - as in, wouldn't shock us in hindsight - scenario in the world of sport. We don't sit around kicking ourselves with questions like "What are the odds Jason Bay hits that home run?" after such 6-in-100 possibilities are realized. There is a tendency to regard what happened as though it were inevitable but that's never the case. Not in this gambler's mind at least. J.J. Davis could have played well last year. Oliver Perez could have continued to pitch only as well as he did in Spring Training. Shit happens man.

Third, more Buccos will improve than decline in 2005 because the team is young. That said, a lot of the downturn will be attributed, like Kip Wells's off year in 2004, to unexpected or unforeseeable injury. My projections - let's call them the KHALIFA (Kids Have A Lotta Improving Future Ahead) projections - do not account for injury or even factor in the slightest hunch I may or may not have that one of these guys will spend time on the DL.

With no further ado, here are the projections. Most players fall into one of five categories. There is "breakout" and then is "improve," which means more likely to improve than breakout. Much of that has to do with the suckiness of the 2004 performance. Rather than use "Collapse," which has traumatic connotatons, I'll use "Hold steady" and "Off year." "Attrition" means more likely to get cut from the team than likely to play enough to have an "off year." As I just said, in no sense does anyone's forecast rule out, guarantee, or even really predict any outcome. Rather the KHALIFA projections only suggest what I think is the most likely outcome. Never in my wildest dreams do I expect all of the most likely scenarios to be realized.

Pitchers

99 Bobby Bradley R/R 5-11 190 12/15/80
61 Sean Burnett L/L 5-11 190 09/17/82
27 Josh Fogg R/R 6-0 205 12/13/76
51 Mike Gonzalez R/L 6-2 200 05/23/78
39 John Grabow L/L 6-2 210 11/04/78
37 Mike Johnston L/L 6-2 225 03/30/79
46 Brian Meadows R/R 6-4 230 11/21/75
49 Jose Mesa R/R 6-3 235 05/22/66
62 Jeff Miller R/R 6-4 230 02/01/80
48 Oliver Perez L/L 6-2 200 08/15/81
43 Matt Peterson R/R 6-5 210 02/11/82
55 Mark Redman L/L 6-5 245 01/05/74
53 Ian Snell R/R 5-11 170 10/30/81
45 Cory Stewart L/L 6-4 210 11/14/79
16 Salomon Torres R/R 5-11 215 03/11/72
47 John Van Benschoten R/R 6-4 215 04/14/80
22 Ryan Vogelsong R/R 6-3 210 07/22/77
32 Kip Wells R/R 6-3 200 04/21/77
58 Dave Williams L/L 6-3 220 03/12/79

Breakout: Zach Duke, not mentioned, may be the only one worth considering here. Improve: Fogg, Gonzalez, Grabow, Torres, Wells, Redman, Vogelsong, Dave Williams. Steady: Fogg, Oliver Perez, Meadows. Off year: Don't see one coming. Attrition: Mesa. All the rest: I don't have much of a clue. Comment: Gonzalez is young and raw. Improvement seems likely, especially for a guy with his stuff. Grabow can only get better or get cut. I think better is more likely. Torres falls into this category because I think he'll keep his current level of effectiveness as he pitches more and more high-leverage innings. Kip Wells was an ace in 2003. I expect he's more likely to return to ace form than he is to just totally suck. Mark Redman had a crazy first year in the AL. Now he's back in the NL, I expect he'll be more like the guy he was in Florida. I'm still worried he'll put our defense to sleep but I see likely improvement over his 2004 numbers. Vogelsong reminds me of Brett Tomko. Just as Tomko stuck around and now turns in capable stretches, so do I think Vogelsong will stick around. He falls under the category of improve because his 2004 numbers make improvement almost certain if he avoids attrition. Dave Williams strikes me as someone who, like Josh Fogg, will get better with experience. He turns 26 next month. He's a kid and kids are more likely to get better than old men. Steady: Josh Fogg I have learned never to doubt. He was better in so many ways in the second half of 2004. Oliver Perez was so good in 2004, it seems unlikely he'll duplicate that in 2005. The idea of sophomore slump jumps out at you. Is he the next Dontrelle Willis? The answer is no, I think. For one, his stuff is just too amazingly good. And for another, last year wasn't his rookie season. I think he's likely to be too good for the words "off year" without necessarily duplicating 2004. Meadows is steady as they come. Attrition: The only guy who I think has a greater chance of getting cut for injury or sudden incompetence is Old Man Mesa. Because he's old. That said, who knows. I like the re-signing because I think it's smart to use the best relievers in the seventh and eighth innings. It's not smart to use an incompetent pitcher in any inning. He never looked incompetent to me in 2004, but I know he's an Old Man, so who knows. Hitters:

Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
11 Humberto Cota R/R 6-0 195 02/07/79
14 Ryan Doumit S/R 6-0 200 04/03/81
30 J.R. House R/R 6-0 210 11/11/79
56 Ronny Paulino R/R 6-3 230 04/21/81
34 Benito Santiago R/R 6-1 200 03/09/65
Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
50 Jose Bautista R/R 6-0 195 10/19/80
14 Jose Castillo R/R 6-1 200 03/19/81
35 Brad Eldred R/R 6-5 270 07/12/80
17 Bobby Hill S/R 5-9 175 04/03/78
12 Freddy Sanchez R/R 5-10 190 12/21/77
31 Daryle Ward L/L 6-1 240 06/27/75
19 Ty Wigginton R/R 6-0 225 10/11/77
2 Jack Wilson R/R 6-0 180 12/29/77
Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
38 Jason Bay R/R 6-2 200 09/20/78
29 Rajai Davis S/R 5-11 190 10/19/80
26 Chris Duffy S/L 5-10 185 04/20/80
50 Matt Lawton L/R 5-10 190 11/03/71
3 Rob Mackowiak L/R 5-10 190 06/20/76
64 Nate McLouth L/R 5-11 185 10/28/81
5 Tike Redman L/L 5-11 175 03/10/77
36 Craig Wilson R/R 6-2 220 11/30/76

Breakout: Jose Castillo. Improve: Ward, Wigginton, Mackowiak, all the kids who won't make the 25-man roster at the end of March. Steady: Hill, Bay, Craiggers. Off year: Jack Wilson, Matt Lawton. Attrition: Santiago, Tike Redman. Comments: If the Bucs had sent Jose Castillo to AA last year, my guess is he would have smacked the ball around and maybe get promoted to AAA mid-year. And he'd be a top prospect in all the books and no one would say the Pirates have no hitting prospects in the minor leagues. And lots of people would be all like, Promote Jose Castillo! The Bucs should just plug Jose Castillo in at second and see what they got with him. Instead, they let him finish his development not at AA but in the majors, and now everyone says the team has no hitting prospects and Castillo is too slow and all that jazz. Improve: I'm a Daryle Ward fan. I know he only had one really good month. But if he's not permanently crippled from that injury that ended that month, I think he can get back to a high level. He was a top prospect all his life until (relatively) recently and he's from a baseball family. I'm a believer. Nothing else to say about him. Wigginton I think has a little bit more to show us. And the team appears committed to giving him that chance. He'll manage and improve somewhat on the 2004 season. That's my guess as to what is most likely to happen. Mackowiak will force his way into the lineup and be improved. He's put himself together one piece at a time. So a few pieces are missing. I don't doubt that he can't finish the job. He started with nothing and now he's like 75% big-league star. Him and Josh Fogg were like twins separated at birth or something. All the other kids I'm not mentioning here are likely to be better ballplayers this year. I have no clue what McLouth's numbers will be wherever he plays, but even if they aren't up to his 2004 numbers, I'll still guess he was just a better player playing in a much better environment. Stay the same: Bobby Hill. I think we know what he can do now. Jason Bay was steady Eddie in 2004. I see no reason to expect that to change. Craiggers still has some inconsistency problems. He's a lot like Wigginton. I wouldn't be shocked to see a career year in 2005 followed by a pretty quick decline. Off year: Jack Wilson is coming off appendectomy surgery and he's all scrawny. Not good. Plus, I do now think he had more than a fair share of luck in the first half of 2004. He'll still be good enough, but I doubt the 2005 numbers will be better than the 2004. That said, it could happen, just as Jason Bay could homer in his next at-bat. I worry about Matt Lawton's defense. Homies are going to boo his sorry rag-armed ass if the other team gets like back-to-back triples. He had a good year last year but I'm worried he won't like playing in Pittsburgh if/when the fans start booing his "girl throws" from left field. Not much to say about Old Man Santiago and Tike Redman that hasn't already been said.

On the whole, the KHALIFA projections are quite upbeat. I wouldn't say the team has dynasty written all over it, but it does look to me like this is a stronger team than the one we saw last year. They can win half their games. They can compete in the NL Central. This isn't a promise or a Joe Namath-like guarantee. But honestly, you just don't know enough about sports and the wacky wacky world we live in if you think the Pirates have zero chance of being a game or two out of first in late August.

Get your Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds voodoo dolls ready ... stock up on pins and needles ...