Taking stock

Bob Smizik assesses the surprising and the disappointing today in the PG. What else do you do when a game is rained out? But, it's still too early to put much stock in the numbers. The only thing I disagree with in this column is Vogelsong. He hasn't been that disappointing. Sure, the numbers are bad, but what did you expect from him six months ago? I won't be disappointed in Ryan unless he gets hit this hard for half the season. The fact that he rehabbed his TJ surgery so well and came back so strong outweighs the fact that the Cubs went to town on him twice in a row. Hang in there, RV.

One other thing: Smizik's not the only one to call attention to the 8-10 record like it confirms a reasonable preseason expectation of a 72-win season. OK, 72 wins is reasonable enough, especially if you hate disappointment. But it's still reasonable to think the Bucs will win 83 games. I'm being totally honest when I say I think that's possible. This team is better than last year's team and I don't think the rest of the NL Central is remarkably better than it was last year. Still, 18 games is too early - barring rain postponement boredom - to be extrapolating final season results from available data. If the Bucs were 10-8, we wouldn't be sitting here forecasting 90 wins. The same standard should apply for 8-10. Wait and see, people, wait and see. I'll start to believe that 83 wins may be an unreasonable expectation if the Bucs start the season 23-29.