These playing time estimates were made consulting the fielding statistics available at the Pirates' team index page at Baseball-Reference. Playing time is measured in total plate appearances (at-bats plus walks plus hit-by-pitches plus nuts and bolts leftover from the latest car repair). The players are sorted from the most playing time to the least playing time.
The Pirates made 5743 PAs in 2004 (not counting the pitchers). These projections add up to 5750. They could have a few more - they had a game cancelled in 2004 and didn't score a lot of runs - but that strikes me as a good number to expect for next year, too, so I used it. They are distributed as 700 at first base and left field, 675 at every other position, and 300 pinch-hitting and miscellaneous at-bats. Odds are that the few positions stocked with the healthiest and best-hitting players will go over the 675 number. Looking at the players, I'd guess we'll go over that number at 2B and maybe at another outfield position. For sure, Lloyd McClendon won't manage 300 pinch-hitting plate appearances, and no one will get 100 plate appearances as a pinch-hitter. Since it's tough to forecast which positions will go over the 675 number, however, I'll lump the final 300 plate appearances into a pinch-hitting and miscellaneous category.
Spring training will change everything, of course. A close look at the team's current options will reinforce the expectation that David Littlefield will acquire a hitter, especially if one of the top five or six players gets injured before the season begins.
The players with numbers are the ones I'm guessing will make the 25-man roster at the end of Spring Training.
1. Jack Wilson: 650 PAs at shortstop (2004: 693 total plate appearances).
Jack Wilson looks to me like our only everyday player. Given McClendon's ongoing studies of mixing and matching and rotating and platooning and substituting, that's not a bad thing. 650 is the most I'd project for anyone. Jack gets that number.
2. Jason Bay: 400 in left, 200 in center (2004: 472).
Jason Bay only had 475 plate appearances last year. I expect McClendon to play him as much as possible. Until he has a 650 PA year, however, I don't think it's wise to project one for him. He was amazingly consistent month to month in 2004, but he did have the occasional stretch where he struck out seven times in ten at-bats. With so many outfielders, I expect he'll get a day off now and then. With no Randall Simon, I'm not sure who will sit him down for a hug and a pep talk. Pirate fans everywhere should hope that Bay can play a good centerfield in 2005. If not, see Tike Redman, below.
3. Craig Wilson: 200 at first, 350 in right, 25 in left, 25 pinch-hitting & misc. (2004: 644).
In 2004, Craig's fielding percentage was good at first, but his range factor was statuesque. In right field he was at least average. For that, I expect him to see most of his time out there. The possibility that McClendon will want to start Redman - in spacious parks, or because Redman got a big hit the day before - combined with the probable presence of a healthy Bay, a healthy Lawton, and a versatile Mackowiak - suggests to me that Wilson won't start full-time out there. Most likely, he moves around. Give the man some love: he is as important to the offense as anyone on the team. Hopefully we'll see more of the Jim Thome impression he performed in the first half of 2004.
4. Jose Castillo: 525 at second, 25 at third (2004: 414).
Jose Castillo could change his name to Warren Morris and only earn about 300 plate appearances, or he maybe he'll play 95% of the innings at second and have a breakout year. I'm guessing he's on the Jack Wilson career path. Jack Wilson jumped from about 400 PAs in his rookie year to about 550 in his sophomore year. I have a hunch that he'll play some innings at third.
5. Rob Mackowiak: 100 in right, 50 in left, 325 at third, 50 in center (2004: 555).
Mackowiak's defensive numbers suggest that he could play more 3B in 2005 than he did in the Chris Stynes-afflicted 2004 season. With Stynes out of the equation, he should. If Rob's fielding percentage and range factor are correct in their suggestion that he's at least average over there, then he's better than Wigginton. My guess is that Rob and Ty both hit in the neighborhood of a 330 OBP and a 440 SLG, so the rotation at third base could well depend upon who was slick with the glove or hot with the bat the night before. Mackowiak's fielding percentage and range factor in the outfield were mixed. He looked pretty good in left but not so good in center or right. Overall the numbers suggest that he's pretty average out there. Assuming that Craig Wilson and Matt Lawton are still around after the trade deadline, this season Mackowiak won't have as many opportunities to play a corner outfield post.
6. Ty Wigginton: 100 at first (?!), 300 at third, 50 at second (2004: 206 with the Bucs, 339 with the Mets).
Can Ty Wigginton, a second-baseman moved to third, play first base? He did some for the Mets. Looking for ways to get him into the lineup, I figure that if Mackowiak plays as much as he did last year, Wigginton may be hard-pressed to get the same amount of PT he got with the Mets and Pirates combined in 2004. So I'm giving him 100 plate appearances as a weak-hitting first baseman to get him up to a 450 PA projection. It looks like there may be time at first, too. First, I want to be conservative with estimations of Ward's time there. Second, I also think Craig Wilson will be needed in right field, because I don't want to predict that Lawton, who has a history of missing time, will be an everyday player for us. This leaves a little gap at first. Littlefield talks about acquiring a power-hitting first-baseman, so perhaps this is reserved for him. Or, maybe the time here will filled by another of the team's trademark super-subs. Or these 100 plate appearances at first could easily go to Craig Wilson, if someone like Lawton or Redman exceeds expectations. Or they could go to a minor-league call-up like Brad Eldred.
7. Matt Lawton: 225 in right, 200 in left, 25 pinch-hitting & misc. (2004: 665 with the Tribe).
Lawton wore down after All-Star break in 2004. More frightening: his second-best comp at Baseball-Reference is Derek Bell, who shut it down at the age of 32. Lawton will be playing his 33rd year. I don't think he'll break down, but I also don't think he'll play 150 games in the field. We're desperate for plate discipline and he could fit that need. Lawton could be a hero if he can manage a .370 OBP – his career average – leading off.
8. Tike Redman: 425 in center (2004: 581)
I'm guessing his role will be reduced somewhat with a healthy Jason Bay to play some center. I see him moving toward a Kerry Robinson-type fourth outfielder role. If Lawton can't play the outfield very well, then Bay has to spend more time in left. Redman and maybe Mackowiak would then see more time in centerfield.
9. Benito Santiago: 375 catching, 25 pinch-hitting & misc. (2004: 183).
400 plate appearances for the Old Man may be optimistic.
10. Darlye Ward: 350 at first, 50 pinch-hitting & misc. (2004: 321).
A ballplayer needs three things to succeed in the show: athletic ability, competitive knowledge, and the will to maintain professional work habits. Ward has shown that he can hit the ball, when healthy and in shape. As the son of a ballplayer, Ward strikes me as someone who knows how to succeed in the majors. It's the third component, willpower, that I'd question with Daryle Ward. After getting sent to the minors at the end of Spring Training, Ward appeared in some stories as a character who looked in the mirror and turned over a new leaf (after throwing some tantrums). First of all, no pro gets so out of shape. And second of all, no pro throws that kind of tantrum when he's demoted. Both facts show that what he lacked in willpower, he made up in self-delusion. On the other hand, he was very impressive when he stormed back in May of 2004 before hurting his hand. I believe the changed-man narrative that came with the May surge, and I expect him to have a few surprisingly productive years. The playing time estimate (400 total PAs) reflects pros and cons. To his credit, I believe that he'll hit pretty well. If he hits as well as he's capable of hitting, he'll be a hero. He'll get all the PT he can handle, too. Even if he only manages 400 plate appearances, he could be a bargain at under one million if he hits for power. Working against a more generous PT projection is his history of injury and his defensive shortcomings. Ward had a horrible zone rating in the outfield last year; I'm assuming his days out there are over. And he wasn't that good at first base, so he's worth yanking for a defensive replacement.
11. Humberto Cota: 250 catching (2004: 70).
Cota has less than 120 big-league plate appearances and a history of getting injured often. His cut of the catching duties could easily fall to J.R. House or Ronny Paulino.
12. Bobby Hill: 100 at second, 100 pinch-hitting & misc. (2004: 267).
Bobby Hill will have to keep up his torrid pinch-hitting to get this much PT in that department because McClendon will have more and better pinch-hitting options this year. The pinch-hitting is sure to improve from the 2004 campaign led by Abraham Nunez. Hill doesn't have a great defensive reputation, but perhaps that's unfair. His fielding percentage and range factor were both above-average in 2004. He could pick up another 100-150 plate appearances if one of the above players gets injured and misses a substantial amount of time.
AAA. Brad Eldred: 50 at first (2004: 0).
Eldred will get a big cup of Joe if the Pirates fail to acquire another power-hitting first baseman before the trade deadline.
13. Freddy Sanchez: 25 at short (2004: 20).
Someone will have to pick up the few innings at short when Jack Wilson comes out of the game or needs a day off. It will be interesting to see who makes the Opening Day roster as the backup shortstop. Sanchez could be the thirteenth position player if McClendon is comfortable with two catchers. If he does make the Opening Day roster, I imagine the team will find a way to get him more than 25 plate appearances over the course of the season. Perhaps they'll trade one of their utility players in a package for a power hitter if Sanchez looks ready for even more time.
AAA. J.R. House: 25 catching (2004: 9).
AAA. Ronny Paulino: 25 catching (2004: 0).
House and Paulino will probably get some playing time if/when Benito or Humberto go on the disabled list. If they start the year in the minors, both these guys should have a bag packed for the next flight out of town.
Right now, I project no playing time for Bautista, Doumit, R. Davis, Duffy, or McLouth. Right now, it looks to me like those guys need a trade, an injury or two (injuries will happen), or some kind of stellar start to find their way into the 2005 lineup.
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