Pirates at Blue Jays

Ian Snell will throw hard and not show weird stuff at one.

Reds, Pirates, Twins

Split-squad games around 1.

Pirates at Yankees

Billy Crystal will play today for the Yankees. Game at 1:15pm.

Pirates at Blue Jays

1 o'clock Grapefruit league game.

Thoughts on Snell and Pearce

No Grapefruit league game today, it looks to me, from the MLB.com scoreboard.

Dejan Kovacevic Paul Meyer reported some news for the Post-Gazette. The roster cuts are non-surprising.

The same synopsis mentions that Snell was renewed (made 408K last year, probably renewed at what, 450K?). It also notes that the Pirates have offered him a long-term deal. Why Snell would play for 400-450K now and decline a long term deal, which surely would run in the millions, is beyond me. Agents and players have much greater risk tolerance for this sort of thing than I would. The idea that Snell would make more money by living year to year strikes me as foolhardy. If you have a chance to get a big paycheck, take it. The odds that a player will stay healthy through his arbitration years for an even bigger contract are longer than most would think.

I also think it might be in the Pirates' best interest for Snell not to sign a long-term deal. Guys have a tendency to get fat once they are set for life. That's only an added risk and it surely outweighs the risks involved only with him not signing the deal, e.g., the risk that Snell would destroy himself by, say, hiding an injury in the hopes of finishing the season with a great many innings and a stronger arbitration case.

I can imagine there's all kinds of back-and-forth and poker playing and whatnot between the team and Ian Snell, but if I'm Snell I take their best long-term offer before the season starts. And then I get to work adjusting my life to such a higher salary. It won't be so easy to stay sharp mentally.

One more thing: I'd want to get paid in euros.

In other news, Pearce was told to learn the outfield. Adam LaRoche is a "fixture," as Kovacevic writes, and that makes a lot of sense. With Bay perpetually gimpy and non-healing the last year or two, and with Nady likely to command some value in trade, anyone who wants to see Pearce in the big leagues should be nodding their head about this decision. It also further guarantees that Pearce will not make the team out of spring training (barring injury). You can't learn a new position as a pinch-hitter starting twice a week.

Phillies at Pirates

Ian Snell will pitch at 1pm.

And there will be a lot of roster cuts today.

Reds and Pirates

Home and away today: two split-squad games, at one and seven pm, at Ed Smith Stadium and later at McKechnie Field.

Blue Jays at Pirates

Game on. Tommy G. pitching.

Now batting fifth

Repoz of BBTF fame found this gem in a Coonelly chat at MLB.com:

signdante: How many home runs will the "change in atmosphere" hit this season? And will it be suitable protection for Jason Bay in the middle of the lineup?

Coonelly: signdante, I detect some sarcasm in your question. My guess is that "the change in atmosphere" will not hit any home runs this year. We are hoping, however, that Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady and others will provide Jason with some protection this year. The change in atmosphere, which you apparently mock, will be seen by all of our fans who enjoy baseball at PNC Park, and I believe will contribute to far greater success in 2008 and beyond.

More and more I am looking forward to this season. Also I hope the climate change brings sunnier, warmer April weather.

Josh Wilson can slide

He flashes impressive technique for Peter Diana, PG photographer. In Kovacevic's attached report, he runs down how the roster is shaking out.

Tigers at Pirates

Game at one.

Pirates at Red Sox

Preview the World Series at 1.

Pirates at Phillies

Scrimmage at one.

Rays at Pirates, and thoughts on Pearce

Another grapefruit battle today at 1.

Dejan Kovacevic's report on Steve Pearce had me doing some math in my head. Pearce appears to be blocked behind LaRoche and Nady, but the 1B and RF positions will demand about 1400 plate appeances' worth of playing time. Nady has averaged 500 PA the last two years; LaRoche, 600. Assuming they turn in average years, they leave 300 PA open for Pearce. The DH in interleage adds another 40. Jason Bay will not play for all 700 PA occupied by the left-fielder; assuming Nady and not Morgan/McLouth covers left in his absence, especially on the road, then another 50, at least, will fall to the available best-hitting 1B/RF. And every year the best bats on the bench collect about 200 PA pinch-hitting, though I would not expect Pearce to see much of this action given the plan to keep wherever (AAA or MLB) he can play full time.

To come to the point, even if Bay, Nady, and LaRoche avoid extensive down-time to a serious injury, there's still an easy 350-400 PA for Pearce to do something, some time, of significance. This is a healthy chunk of action for a young guy.

So he has a clear opportunity in 2008, without a trade or injury. He has to stay healthy. If he starts the season at Indy, he has to believe that "any day now" he could be flying to join the team to play full time. He has to keep his bags packed, and he to avoid the kind of mental funk that would discourage the Pirates from calling on him at any one particular moment. He can't sulk at Indy and open the year with 30 strikeouts in 95 at-bats.

If any player blocks him, I think it would be Doug Mientkiewicz. If management falls in love with the guy, they might hesitate to recall Pearce if LaRoche or Nady suffer some kind of 15-day boo-boo. 15 days of full-time play is about 50 PA or 15% - a big chunk - of Pearce's easy 350. This is a scenario that I would very much expect from the old regime. Whether or not the new bosses will make similar decisions, we can only guess.

I understand that the Pirates are not going to recall and demote Pearce seven times over the course of the season, and I know that the scenario I just described is highly hypothetical and not at all likely to happen just as I describe. But experience anticipating playing time has taught me that this kind of math makes decent predictions and establishes reasonable expectations.

Pirates at Reds

Grapefruit league action today at 1.

Phillies at Pirates

More grapefruit today at 1.

Play ball

Game on. The Phillies just touched Bullington for five in the third.

RIP Myron Cope

Sad day.

Hmm-ha.

Last week of February

This baseball should get more interesting soon.

Pirates will face off against the dread Lancers on Wednesday. I'm not sure if they are playing the team in the top picture or the team in the bottom picture. We'll know soon enough.

Then they will play the Phillies on Thursday.

True Piracy

Dejan Kovacevic describes the awesome speechifying of Steve Blass.