It was the Jets who got lucky

Powered by Baltica 6 ... this is what I'm thinking as I can't sleep and can't enjoy the damn dome game.

This year, all NFL kickers were 185 for 257 in their attempts of field goals of 40-49 yards. That's a 72% success rate. We know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick. It's not a dome. The stadium is pretty open and exposed to winds. It's cold. Not many 40+ field goals are even attempted in Heinz Field. I'd guess the odds of any pro kicker making a 40+-yarder in the cold and in Heinz Field are closer to 50%. But throw all that out. Let's be generous. Let's assume that Brien had a 72% chance of making either one of those field goals. Odds of missing two in a row: 28% * 28% = 7.8%. Same odds as Jason Bay, a .280 hitter, getting two consecutive hits in a 2004 game.

There were eleven punts returned for a touchdown in the NFL in 2004. In 256 games. Odds of getting a punt return for a TD in a game: 11/256 or 4.3%.

There were 53 interceptions returned for touchdowns in the NFL in 2004. In 256 games. Odds of getting an INT run back for a TD in a game: 53/256 or 20.7%.

Odds of getting both a punt return TD and an interception return TD: 4.3% * 20.7% or 0.9%. Same odds as a pitcher or me or you or any other .094 hitter getting back-to-back hits in consecutive at-bats.

7.8% versus 0.9%. In any one game, a team is eight times more likely to miss two 40-49 yard field goals than they are to score on both a punt return and an interception return.

The Steelers weren't any more lucky to win the game than the Jets were lucky to be in it. But it was still a choke-a-thon. Both the Colts and the Patriots are sleeping a little easier tonight.

Ouch

All hail the Steelers! File that one under "humbling."

Now to sleep it off ...

Steelers must prove themselves

All week we've been talking (not on the blog, of course, but out there in the scary world outside this virtual drinking room) about how everyone seems to be focussed on the Peyton Manning vs. Patriots game. Alan Robinson mentions this in his pre-game AP report. Some of it is enduring skepticism that a team can go far or win much with a rookie QB. But that's not all of it.

I'm not sure what's the rest of it.

Saturday News

I hear they are playing a football game today at 4:30pm. You might want to check it out.

There are some good reports up about the Pirates. Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic have notebooks. Yes, the GM is still looking to make a trade. Yes, Mike Cameron is out there. Pre-arbitration negotiations continue. Kovacevic reports the Bucs are close to bringing in Albie Lopez.

The Bradenton Herald offers this report on Humberto Cota. Both Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic report on the physical and mental shape of Daryle Ward. Ward is making notes in a little notebook about his goals. More players should do this.

At MLB.com on the home page they are advertising ticket six-packs with a skeleton-head Pirate logo. Is this new or has this been an alternative logo for some time?

And all hail the Honus Wagner museum.

Marvin Miller

Here's to Marvin Miller. And here's to our still being here when we're 87.

And here's to Primer for posting that link.

Lynn Swann

Seen fighting junk food. He was one of my favorite players back in the day, but I'm not going to enjoy his career as a politician.

Wells signs one-year deal

Dejan reports this.

Lame "performance-enhancing drugs" agreement

Nothing there about amphetamines. The Bucs can have the Killer Coffee again in 2005.

Quote of the day, from this report by Kovacevic:

Asked about the new steroids program yesterday, Santiago replied, "If they want me to pee 10 times, I'll pee 10 times."

Amazing. Raise your hand if you can pee ten times in a row on demand. Now you know why they get the Big Bucks.

Wilson down 15 pounds

Give the man a chocolate malt. I don't like learning that the little guy is littler.

Venezuelan Vogelsong

Joe Rutter quotes Pete Mackanin, who coached Vogelsong in winter ball, with a less-than-ringing endorsement of the progess RV made:

Little by little, I think he understands it, but he didn't get the results we were looking for.

Ouch. Yet RV brought back a new pitch and a new grip. Story here.

First and third

Ed Eagle reports that third base is Wigginton's. He better outhit Mackowiak if he wants to hold onto it. Eagle also reports that Darlye Ward thinks his conditioning woes are behind him. We'll see soon enough.

Kip Wells: Key to 2005

Many stories on Kip Wells after he threw yesterday. Dejan Kovacevic, Ed Eagle, Joe Rutter, and the AP bring the news, which is good.

Mac is right here:

"Kip is big for us right now," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "We need for the guy to be healthy enough to make 32 starts. Our biggest concern for us going into spring training is having a healthy Kip Wells."

Yes, yes, yes. (Rutter has him saying 32-33, FWIW.)

Carpal tunnel release surgery, if my wife's midwife can be cited as an authority, is no big deal at all. The elbow is the thing we should watch.

I carp about the need for ten or twelve pitchers, but I think one of the keys to a winning season is having four or five guys making more than 25-30 starts for you. That's not only a sign that the pitchers are being effective. It's also a sign of the stability I think a team needs to prevent the long losing streaks which separate a 72-win team from an 88-win team.

That crazy Curve

What will they think of next?

Actually, that's not such a crazy idea. They can do better I think.

Brian Meadows gets paid

One more arbitration case settled.

Happy Pittsburgh

The New York Times describes the city and its relationship with the Steelers. Complete with picture of a Roethlisburger. Go read. Thanks, Joey G, for the link.

Duce and Jerome

Great picture on the wire. They look like brothers. The four raised eyebrows are good, too. This is better two-headed photography than the image that recently graced National Geographic Sports Illustrated.

Noonie a Cardinal

Story here. He strikes me as a Tony La Russa kind of player.

Kovacevic Q & A

Whoa. It's huge.

People are pissed; he's right about the anger thing. But I'd attribute some of the intemperance of commentary to inexperience. A lot of writers are driven to write and, when they start out, have a lot of passion and little practice restraining it. And nobody proofreads anymore. It's very easy to be a lot more harsh than we mean to be. It takes awhile to learn the strength of your punches.

Sean Burnett hanging out, not touching baseballs

Dejan Kovacevic reports on the laziness of Sean Burnett. When I was a kid, we got right back out there after Tommy John surgery, threw baseballs and what not until the horses got rootchie and raised a hell of a noise.

Seriously, get well Sean.

University of Torres

Joe Rutter reports that he's investing some of his new contract dough in the construction of a baseball academy near his home of San Pedro de Macoris, a bustling city and part of an area that "has supplied the greatest number of Major League players in the world."