Lopsided domination. Steelers' D shuts down Shaun and challenges Hasselbeck to step up. Despite his fearsome sagittal crest and perhaps due to improper nail care, Hasselbeck wears goat suit and wilts, Jake-style. Meanwhile, Ben plays like a champion today and lights up the Seattle secondary. ARE returns a punt back for a TD, and the Steelers serve up more whoop-ass: Steelers 41, Seahawks 13.
Tunch Ilkin describes his expectations for the Tribune-Review. It makes a world of sense to me. He's a fellow homer, but he's been as right as they come down the stretch.
I expect no surprises from the Steeler offense: they will take what the Seahawks offer and score early. So far in the playoffs, the opponent has played like they were intimidated by the Steeler running game and underwhelmed by the passing game. The thinking appeared to be that the Steelers were one-dimensional, and if they could stop the run, Ben would force some throws - he has been playing more like a gunslinger - and turn the ball over.
It won't matter much what Seattle does. They won't come out with a run defense on every down, but it won't matter. The Steelers should be too much for them either way. Unless the wideouts drop an unusual number of passes, I see the Steelers getting an early lead and going into the half with the score 10-3 or 13-7 or 14-7.
If the Steelers can extend the lead to double digits, they will switch gears and go into pound, maybe punt, and always-bleed-the-clock mode. In other words, a Steeler victory tomorrow will look a lot like every other Steeler victory. Don't be surprised if the Seahawks drive the ball on the Steeler defense, especially if the secondary reverts to mid-season form and drops the easy INTs. Yardage is one thing, points are another. In fact, if the Steelers have a good lead, I am fine with seeing long, time-consuming drives, especially if they result only in three points for the blue team.
Shaun Alexander carried my FFL team to a championship this year, so I know what he's been all about. He has benefitted from the soft schedule, and the Seahawks have overindulged his taste for being a one-man offense. This kind of superstar-driven attack can be thwarted. A top-quality defense can take away the top threat of a top-quality offense. The Steeler defense is especially well prepared to contain Alexander. Once this happens, the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball. And they could be effective; who knows; I don't; the Patriots, for example, were always able to throw the ball by spreading it around against the Steelers' defense. The wideouts would be better prepared to take over the game, however, if they had any experience doing so in the regular season. Seattle's offense has a chance, but it's not a good one.
The zebras will not flag much of anything in the game. This can only help Pittsburgh, since they've been -- I don't know, perhaps it is the style of play -- more hurt by big penalties recently. The officials never get much into meddling in the Super Bowl. It is a good time for illegal moves; the more aggressive team at the start will have an edge for it. I don't expect we'll see much in the way of questionable pass interference or holding calls. If we do, we know that someone has bought a little fixin'.
They lose if they do not score on their long drives -- Steeler football makes short games, games in which both sides do not get the ball all that often. They have to get points when they've had the ball for half a quarter. The Steelers also lose by letting the Seahawks jump out to an early lead. Well, they don't lose necessarily, but that's the last thing you want to see as a Steelers fan. The Steelers are not built for comebacks. They want to knock the Seahawk to the ground ten minutes into the game, and then get Casey Hampton to sit on him the rest of the way.
Also keep an eye on the special teams play. When they have been vulnerable the last few years, the special teams have given up big return yardage and turned over the momentum late in close games. I'll have my eye on the likes of Sean Morey. Special teams better bring an A game tomorrow.
My final score prediction: Steelers 27, Seahawks 17. What's yours?
Fun story in the Seattle Times about a Steeler fan who wore Seattle colors around town this week.
Is it me or has the Post-Gazette gotten a lot more bloggy on us? Lots of silliness that too many papers regard as "beneath" their "dignity." Good for them I say.
Cowher's win-one-for-Columbus speechifying reminds me of that other coach. I've long been boggled at the low opinion the self-styled sports punditry seem to have of Cowher. If the Steelers win Sunday, however, my guess is Cowher will finally cross into a New World. After winning a "big game," perhaps more attention will go where it ought to go. A .629 winning percentage over 13 seasons is, um, above average I think. Imagine if one manager were to guide a baseball team to thirteen straight years of .629 ball. That would be thirteen years averaging 102 wins per season.
I know, I know, there's no parity in football. So we're comparing apples and oranges. Still, despite whatever spittle and flat-earth nonsense comes pouring from his mouth, he's been remarkably good at winning.
Here's hoping that Coach Columbus can guide this ship to that earthly paradise . . .
Story here.
For a moment there I thought they already played this game, and the Steelers won it.
Get well Troy. Get well quick.
Does any team in pro sports have better team songs? We have a Steelers song for fans of every genre.
If you've been living under a rock, and just crawled out, don't miss "Puhlahmahlu," the Mr. Devious take on the Sesame Street classic.
Steelers Fever has more. And the PG covered the subject a few weeks back.
Great report here by Stephen Nover for Covers.com.
Some have a clear perception the Steelers will be loose having experienced big games before, while the Seahawks could come out tight. They feel the Seahawks are vulnerable, stepping up in class having not faced a major challenge away from home.The Seahawks have yet to beat a team with a winning record as the visitors. Seattle also has lost and failed to cover six of its past seven following a bye week.
The Steelers, on the other hand, are the best road team in the NFL having won 16 of their last 18 away games. They won nine road games this season, the first in history to accomplish the feat.
Pittsburgh ranked No. 3 in rush defense. Their physical 3-4 defense can cause problems for Shaun Alexander, who has rushed for more than 45 yards just once in four playoff games. Seattle led the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.3 points a game.
However, Seattle detractors can point out those statistics were padded by the Seahawks playing six games against weak division foes San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona. The Seahawks averaged 34 points against those teams.
For sure I like the Steelers this Sunday, but there's no such thing as a lock in football. Seattle has probably at least a one-in-three chance of stealing the win here. Nover again:
Recently The Gold Sheet newsletter ranked the Giants-Ravens game in 2000 as the worst of the 39 Super Bowls.Could this season’s Seahawks-Steelers matchup turn out just as bad?
Betting patterns indicate it’s possible. All the money came on the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV and the bettors were right. The Ravens dominated the Giants 34-7, in what was a very boring non-contest.
Once again, as Nover reports, all the money appears to be on Pittsburgh.
I love a good rout. The more the Steelers score and the less the Seahawks score, the more I enjoy the game. No doubt about it. I watch too many football games to think a 24-21 game is a "better" game than one in which the Steelers win 41-0.
So I've been blissfully mellow the last ten days or so, and I've been seeing all kinds of Steeler football in my sleep. For some reason they keep playing Denver again in my dreams. One night, they beat Denver and then they had to play Denver again. The game ended and the zebras started waving their arms and saying, OK, do-over, do it again, OK, that game didn't count.
I've seen some real highlights, too. One I can't forget went like this. Jerome Bettis takes the ball at the Steelers 20 and runs outside. Implausible, I know. But it gets better. He turns up field near the sideline and the ball pops out. It shoots maybe twenty yards down the field.
Sean Morey, running the other way for some reason, catches the ball on a wrong-way sprint toward Bettis. He sticks the ball out like a quarterback. Bettis takes the hand off from Morey, sheds and steamrolls tacklers, and rumbles the rest of the 80 yards for the touchdown.
I woke up before I could see if Bettis made it to the oxygen tank, or if they had to bring the oxygen to Bettis.
I can still see it. Sean Morey?
I don't know what it means--nothing, I guess--but I'll take it as a positive sign. Sean Morey must be destined for some kind of greatness this Sunday.
From the Media Day blitz today:
Two feel-good stories about Larry Foote raising the son he sired when he was 14. The AP piece is marred by some trash-talking from Jerramy Stevens, who publicly requests an ass-whooping.
Hines Ward quotes Cowher quoting the famous Howard Beale "mad as hell" line.
Big Ben finds it easier to meet women on the internet. Don't laugh, some of these internet girls are hot.
In music news, Stevie Wonder will perform before the game, Aretha Franklin will sing the national anthem (along with Aaron Neville, Dr. John, and a 150-member choir), and at halftime we'll see the Rolling Stones. I'd much rather see Stevie and Aretha at halftime and the Stones do the anthem.
Bad news for me here, but this explains why Willie and Brett haven't been returning my calls.
Dan Wetzel reports for Yahoo! Sports that 98.9% of the good citizens of the Motor City will be rooting for the Steelers.
All hail that! More than anything this week, as we bask in the waiting for the big game, I want the win not for myself (so big of me) but for all the new Steeler fans who have never experienced a Super Bowl victory.
And welcome all new people on the bandwagon. Good seats are always available. Bring friends--the more the merrier.
Sounds like PirateFest drew a lot of people.
DK had a prospect roundup in yesterday's PG.
John Perrotto reports Vogelsong will get another shot at the rotation.
No real news here. Now back to your recurring football daydreams.
Dejan Kovacevic tries to stir things up at the end of his Q&A. It must be frustrating for him, with the city thinking of only one thing (PirateFest!), and no one but the likes of me reading his spring training coverage.
Bill James says something that is true and hard to accept, namely, that you always assess a current or living player's rank in history as conservatively as possible. Here in the week Lemieux retires, he may look like the Wagner or better of professional baseball. Heck, Bettis may too, if he retires from the endzone of a victory in Ford Field. But raise that same question - who was better in his sport - fifty years from now ... what would you expect?
Plus you have to accept that hockey is somehow the equal of football or baseball. Even if we play anthropologist and argue that kumquats are equally good as apples and oranges, you're just plain nuts if you think hockey has been the equal of those sports in the life of Pittsburgh and the surrounding area. So ... the greatest athlete in the city's history? We could have all of history's greatest ping-pong player in this town - a ping-pong player who walks on water and never lost a game - and still she wouldn't be the greatest athlete in the city's history. No offense, Mario, but the city's sports history - at least in regards to the twentieth-century - will always be about football and baseball before it's about hockey. And that's not all that unusual for an American city; it's not like Pittsburghers ignore professional hockey any more than the average American sports fans of other major cities.
That said, all hail Mario!
Here is some funny anti-Steelers snark. I like the poll, "Where is Jerome Bettis from?" and better, the story, "Seahawks glad they don’t have to watch a Super Bowl with the Seahawks in it."
“I got a really bad concussion two weeks ago and that could have ended my season,” [Shaun Alexander] said. “But thank God it didn’t because that means I’d have to sit on the sidelines and watch this horrendous team. Puke.”
Steelers Nation is quite large, consisting of what, half of all the more knowledgeable and serious fans and at least two-fifths of all the numbnuts. So there will be a lot of people riding the Bus come Super Bowl weekend.
The once-a-year fans--those hothouse flowers who watch the game "for the commercials"--will surely pile on the Seattle bandwagon. Anyone can root the underdog and get at least that milquetoast pleasure of having stood on the high moral ground. And a whole nother class of fans, say, the drunks in the Cleveland and Cincinnati bars, will wallow in the low moral ground and just root from pure hatred and envy.
It shocked me at first, but it makes some sense after contemplation: a lot of people will root against the Steelers next week.
By now you should have heard that Cowher chose white when asked what unis the Steelers (the home team) want to wear in Detroit.
Sunday night, mid-Seahawks game, I surfed the NFL.com website trying to determine if Pittsburgh would be listed as the home team or the visitor. I wanted visitor; I wanted to see them in white again.
So all hail the white.
. . . When will they roll out the Super Bowl XL - Steelers shirts? (Will they?) Courtesy of Scoop, I've been wearing a Super Bowl XXX - Steelers t-shirt for ten years. It's sadly tattered and needs replacing. Maybe the AFC Champ shirt is all they are printing this year? Maybe I need to head down to the Giant Iggle?
. . . Super Bowl XXX was ten years ago from this coming Thursday - January 26, 1996. I barbecue'd outdoors in frigid, frigid weather, in Iowa, on one of those mini-Webers. I recommend the uber-Weber if you fire up the briquets in winter weather. That heat goes fast. The burgers changed color a little bit, the coals burnt out quickly, and I had to bring the meat indoors and finish them on the stovetop.
The Steelers played tight in the first quarter, and the Cowboys got some points. Then the Steelers kicked ass for three quarters but still managed to lose. In addition to the O'Donnell's INTs, which everyone remembers, the Cowboys also got points off a truly egregious illegal pick at the goalline. That don't flag that shit in the Super Bowl; Whisenhunt could look it up and add that play to the script, but the Steelers won't need to cheat I suspect. The game was much closer than the final score. There's little margin for error in a game at this level. The Steelers played well - especially the defense - but got outscored and lost. End of story.
The Steelers have never played poorly in a Super Bowl, and I don't expect that to change any time soon.
Says Faneca.
I found it interesting to contrast the Steeler quotes, mostly all about winning the next game, with the Seahawk quotes, which touched upon domestic realities, but also admitted a preconceived plan to fail:
"You are looking at a very good Pittsburgh Steelers team. And that's real," Hasselbeck said. "Failure in this game is a real option. So we're going to have to work really hard and be as focused as we've ever been."Translation: "Where are Troy and Ike? If I just throw it to them, maybe Peezy won't rip my head off."
Matt, failure might be an option, but usually crapping your pants is involuntary.
WOW. The most enjoyable Steelers football game I've seen in 26 years. All hail the Steelers' coaches and players for a brilliant gameplan and nearly flawless execution today. Ben was en fuego, going 21 for 29 for 275 yards, 3 TDs and 0 turnovers. The defense pistol-whipped Plummer and his seemingly overrated squad. As predicted, Jake imploded and gave it up to the tune of 2 INTs and 2 fumbles lost.
The whoop-ass has generated lots of good quotes and commentary:
The AP has the Broncos as "outschemed, outplayed and pushed around all day."
Cris Carter on the Steelers:
"It's probably the most remarkable run of any playoff team ever, having beaten a division rival in Cincinnati, manhandled the Super Bowl favorite in Indianapolis and dominated the Broncos in Denver."Ike Taylor admits 10 dropped INTs this season, but knew he'd catch one in the postseason.
For the Casey Hampton:Hungry Hippo analogy and more funny stuff, check out Ryan's blog.
The Super Bowl line opens with the Steelers being 3.5 to 4 point favorites.
Steelers strike first! Here we go...
Steelers strike second! Sweet 10-0 early lead. Jake's gonna give it up some more...
Bones has the prediction right. I will be at a bar where fire fighters and paramedics hang out. As the parrot says, Here we go Steelers.
Here we go.
I miss Myron Cope. Chico Harlan for the PG watched the game with him last Sunday and produced this long story.
Story here. This one is the freakiest:
"Now this is going to sound disgusting," said Johnny Schmidt, 31, of New Matamoras in eastern Ohio. And he's right: Besides not eating or going to the bathroom for the entire game "under any circumstances," he leaves the same rub of snuff in his mouth for the entire game.If I'm doing my math right Johnny started this when he was 14 years old. Good luck, Johnny.Without spitting.
He spit during the game when the Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos by one point in 1989. He's not spitting Sunday.
He knows his habit is unhealthy and he has kicked it except for game days. "Right now it's borderline making me sick because I have quit and I don't want to do it any more. But there's no way I'm screwing with it."
With two great defenses that shut down the run, I see this eventually turning into Jake vs. Ben. Jake's career postseason stats feature 8 INTs and 6 TDs. (When I adjust these numbers for schedule and weather effects, I get 8 INTs, 0 TDs). I don't expect Jake to reverse that trend tomorrow. Instead, I see a late fourth quarter play where an unblocked Peezy plucks Plummer's beard, Polamalu picks a forced throw, turns upfield, plants a foot in Plummer's chest while breaking a tackle that Ben could've made, and takes it to the house, cementing the victory. Steelers 27, Broncos 13.
Thanks to KM for sending this:
Scramble eggs with sausage and onions and steak-ums. Add American cheese and ketchup and put in a bun.
Anything with Steak-ums sounds good to me. Actually we could call this a Roethlischeesesteak, but we won't be doing that.
Raise your hand if you wore black and gold to work today. Also, post in comments or send me your recipes for "Roethlis-burgers." I am hungry.
SI's Pete McEntegart has fun with the poor sap who tried to fix the game for Indy:
A rock was tossed through the living-room window of NFL referee Pete Morelli's home on Sunday, just hours after he incorrectly overruled an interception by Steelers safety Troy Polamalu. Strangely, Morelli still insists that it's inconclusive whether the projectile broke the pane.
Link here.
Speaking of SI, my copy this week stars Ben in a blue border; the website has the same cover with Matt Hasselbeck. Are they often printing multiple covers these days? Or did they make this Ben cover just for me?
And here's more. The more fans a team has, the more of this you get. Note too that all of these people look very happy. So what's not to like about it?
We may not win every AFC Championship game, but we sure go to a lot of them. And we enjoy that a lot, it appears.
So the dust has settled and the glow of Sunday's win has gone away. Reading all the papers, it looks like the rest of the world has grown more and more convinced Denver will cruise in this one. And the Broncos are now favored to win the Super Bowl.
Fine with me. Three more days ...
So much for being in a small market. That and other misc. stuff in Ed Bouchette's notebook.
Give the Pirates a year or two, and they too will lead the league in clothing sales.
I'm paying attention, just have nothing to say. Guys will make what their service time warrants.
Last week I noted that teams do better in their second straight road game than they do in a road game off a home game. The Steelers are now playing their third straight road game. That happens so rarely, I don't know what to make of it. Everyone assumes it's a bad thing--could be. Playing in a second straight one looks like a plus to me. Maybe the third is too much.
What I do know for sure, though, is that a home team playing its second straight home game does better than a home team fresh off a road game. I won't bore you with the percentages.
That's the Broncos. So they not only have the home-field advantage, they also have the benefit of the extra week to settle in and improve fortifications.
There's one other angle in play here that I want to mention. The Steelers are a road dog going for a second straight road upset. That rarely happens. The home team wins in about 80% of games with that profile. Teams rarely go on the road and score a second-straight upset victory. A lot of suckers get encouraged by the first upset and think the second is probable. It's not.
The Steelers have something like a one in four chance of winning this, if I look only at the generic profile of the matchup as determined by the two teams' recent history. The Colts game looked much closer to 50-50; the Steelers looked like unusually good road dogs based on the recent play of the two teams. This situation is the opposite. The Steelers have an uphill fight here. Er, upmountain fight.
So I would look for hope in potential mismatches. Are the Broncos missing key players? Are they particularly weak against one of our strengths? That's where I will focus the rest of the week.
Like a lot of Steeler fans, I have the sense that this is a special group of players. And that they are only getting better game to game. Is that enough? We will see.
Literally, this Steeler fan had a heart attack when Bettis fumbled.
You have to love the Steeler fans. They are not the quintessential fan base. Every region has its own way of following their team, and what passes for faith, say, in California or Boston may bear little resemblence to how we do things in Steeler nation. Not everyone around the country or around the world can understand all the crazy things we do and say about our teams.
But there can be no doubt that very few professional sports teams command the respect and attention of their fans the way the Steelers do. Go read O'Neill's explanation of what stopped his heart.
Get well, Terry O'Neill. Maybe some of the players can pay him a visit after practice.
The 2005 Broncos played excellent football at home. It's proverbial, I think, not to bet against the Broncos (or the Chiefs) at home. And a little peek at their 2005 home record shows they've more than supported that folk wisdom.
They got the thin air. They got the huge crowds. They got the winning tradition. They got the plush amenities that enfeeble the legs of visiting teams. (Iowa, don't paint the visiting locker room pink: make it plush. Let the enemy overindulge his appetite for comfort before the game. Fire up the mammoth Trojan-Horse-brand hot tub. Stock and unlock the minibars. Spice up the cable television offerings. Even the most grizzled enemy will be a little weak in the legs come game time. And worse for them, they'll be secretly grateful - and soft - for the hospitality.)
The Broncos wined, dined, and laid waste to San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, New England, Philadelphia, the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. This was a much tougher schedule than the one enjoyed by Peyton Manning's team. Note too that the Eagles had not yet self-destructed when they flew to Denver for week 8.
The Broncos won eight and covered six of those home games. They won five and covered four of the first five--and all five of those were like "games of the week." They earned a reputation for squandering big leads, but they finished the home games. So unlike the 2005 Colts, these Broncos have much recent experience playing the Big Game at home. And they did not let down in the others, either, covering two of the three games in which they were favored by two touchdowns. They are as good as it gets at home. Mike Tyson, not Bald Bull.
The Broncos should get four points for home field, not the usual three. And looking at measures like these, the Broncos should lay another point more.
So I think this should be Pittsburgh +5, not Pittsburgh +3. So I would lean Denver ATS for the value. And based on this alone, Denver must have - on paper - something like a 70% chance to win. That is not a prediction at this point. I have other ways of massaging the data. There are more bones to read.
Objectively, the odds are looking to me as about as long as they were against the Colts. Just as many people underestimated the Steelers' chances at Indy, so do many people overestimate their chances at Denver. This is not a 50-50 or 45-55 situation.
Subjectively, I still think the Steelers have yet to put all the parts together and play the game that wants to come out of them. But it's not impressive or noteworthy to say that a lifelong Steeler fan can imagine victory.
So no prediction, but so far the odds look grim and grimmer the more I look.
One last thing: a sidebar on the total. There's no clear pattern on the Denver totals. They went under mostly. Since the Steelers have often gone under on the road (see previous capping posts), I'm leaning toward the under here. But since the total is 41, I doubt there's much value in it as a wager. 20-10 is more likely than 30-20, but even 24-21 would go over. Odds are we'll see a low to average-scoring game.
This means we will see good defense from both teams. There will be plenty of punts. Field position will be as important as it ever is. The defense can regard a red-zone field goal as a small but real victory. Turnovers will cause as much irreparable harm as they ever do. Little mistakes will be magnified. Small leads will be difficult to overcome. Etc. etc. The usual stuff.
I can't think much. I am making an effort.
The Broncos will be a tougher opponent than the Colts were. I know that for sure. Or, I think I know that. Do I know that? Now I am drawing a blank on the Broncos. Now I keep seeing former Browns on the d-line. Now I recollect that they cheat better than the Colts.
The oddsmakers are no help. They play Solomon on this one, saying "Cut the baby right down the middle": I see visitor +3 and a 41 total, which is like saying "50 heads" in a 100-coin-flip contest. +3 and 41 translates into a 22-19 final score, which is as average as they get.
I have no feel for the next game now. I began to worry, Sunday, that the unfolding victory over the Colts might be a Pyrrhic one. Today I doubt we need to worry about the Steelers being emotionally empty or too physically beat up. Still, the Broncos had a much easier win. Their game was more about the Patriots self-destructing than it was about the Broncos forcing that self-destruction. Denver fans will disagree with me I'm sure.
Bones and I talked last week about who we'd rather play in the AFC Championship, the Patriots or the Broncos, and we agreed we'd rather head to Foxboro to avenge some more.
I also see some things about this game which bode ill for the Steelers. I have to get out the data and confirm these things. You guys have any thoughts on how to handicap this game? No one will be saying the Steelers have no chance to win straight up. But is that chance 50%? or 46%? The Steeler fan in me says yes, the handicapper in me leans no.
More later when my brain comes back on.
Michael Rosenberg, Detroit Free Press:
Now the top-seeded Colts are out of the NFL playoffs, unless the league decides the clock malfunctioned and the Colts get another few minutes to try to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers - which, the way things unfolded Sunday, is possible....
First, they won it when Troy Polamalu intercepted a Peyton Manning pass with 5 minutes, 26 seconds left, giving Pittsburgh the ball with a 21-10 lead.
But wait. After further review (and, I would guess, some sort of pharmaceutical overdose) referee Pete Morelli said the pass was incomplete.
Joe Posnanski, Kansas City Star:
Referee Pete Morelli, in a move that seemed to surprise even the hometown Colts fans, overturned the interception. His explanation was as baffling as the overturn - something about a leg being up in the air - and Manning quickly drove the Colts to the Pittsburgh 3.
Michael Lev, Orange County Reporter:
Polamalu dove in front of Manning's pass for tight end Bryan Fletcher, caught the ball, then dropped it while getting up and attempting to run. The officials ruled it an interception, which would have given the Steelers the ball with 5:26 left and a 21-10 lead. But Colts coach Tony Dungy challenged the play, and referee Pete Morelli overturned it. Indianapolis drove for a touchdown and made a two-point conversion to trim the deficit to three.Morelli explained that Polamalu lost the ball with one of his legs "still on the ground. Therefore he did not complete the catch."
Judy Battista, New York Times:
On the Colts' next possession, they got what might have been a game-turning call by officials. It appeared that Polamalu had intercepted a Manning pass at midfield and had then fumbled the ball as he began to run with it.But officials overturned the call, ruling that the pass was incomplete, even though it appeared Polamalu had taken several steps while in possession.
FWIW. What a crazy game.
Also, Roethlisberger is completely right here:
I think the smart play was to give Jerome the ball and I guarantee if we got the chance 100 times, we’d do it every time.
There's no second-guessing that handoff to Jerome.
Game on. Here is a thread for your predictions, comments, and postmortem analysis.
... Tunch and Wolfley note the microphone stands, there every twenty feet in the MNF game, are not on the field. And, coincidentally, the noise level before the game is noticeably lower. Maybe the Indy fans have yet to crank it up. We'll see if noise is the same factor it was previously.
... All hail Heath Miller.
... All hail Randle El! Rout is on.
... These play fakes will win Ben an Oscar. Touchdown!
... 2nd Q ... Three and out for the Colts. Manning not playing well. If he would get off his ass, maybe he could figure something out against this D. Time for more points ... seems like we have not scored in an eternity.
... Verron Haynes carries some Blue for a big third-down conversion. Steelers are smart to get everyone involved.
... Now a great special teams play. Make Manning drive the length of the field.
... This long drive - I'm looking for it - but I don't see it in the Rout Plan. Two-minute warning.
... Oh, here it is. Last page, under Red-Zone Defense: hold Colts to humiliation of chip shot field goal. 14-3 Steelers. Now let's get some points before the end of the half.
... Halftime. Oh, baby. The Colts will have the ball at the start of the second half.
... Nice stop to open the 2nd half. Script says boot, throat time.
... So that was more like a slow squeeze. Six minutes left in the 3Q. I wonder if Jerome is fueled up and ready to let the air out of this game on the Steelers' next possession. In the meantime, let's see if our DBs can't hang onto one of these passes for the pick.
... Wow nice near-safety there. Rowdy Jr. runs some victory laps. Slow down, little man. He doesn't know what's going on; he's sixteen months old. Steelers to take over at the Indy 30. I'd run it non-stop and kick the field goal.
... We're jamming to Bo Diddley's "Bring It To Jerome" for this first and goal commercial break.
... Ingenious fumble-fake! Raise their hopes and dash them. Time to Bring It On Home.
... We so nearly named our boy Jerome. If Rowdy was not such the great name ... maybe the next son can be Jerome. Steelers 21-3. Rout is on again.
... OK, what do we have, sixteen minutes to kill? Time for Steeler football at its best.
... Manning doubles down recklessly; they convert 4th and 2. Nice play. They will need more of that.
... 4th quarter. Oh shit. The 50-yard touchdown. 21-10.
... 4th and inches. Colts self-destruct with that jumping and pointing. No penalty? Bad enough when you have to play Manning, now we have to play the refs too? No matter, I hope.
... So he has it? WTF? The look on Manning's face.
... More 4th and inches. Bussie has it. No. They will measure. Bussie has it. All hail! Steelers are eating the clock, and, we hope, will punch this in five minutes from now.
... Tunch with the nice Wizard of Oz analogy. The witch has tipped the hourglass, the monkeys are flying, and the Colts can only panic.
... So they punt. Colts will have the ball, 11 points down, six minutes plus, at the 20. Steelers need a stop. The Colts can score in a hurry; the Steelers know this I'm sure.
... INTERCEPTION! FUMBLE! Recovered! Red flag coming out? Polamalu WTF? This could be the killer.
... The challenge goes ... just got another Summit Great Northern Porter ... it goes ... booth review must be holding out for larger bribes ... damn ... they give the ball back to the Colts. I was joking about those bribes until they actually overruled that INT call on the field. WTF?
... Touchdown, then they get two points. Now it's a three-point lead. Four plus minutes. It's on the offense. Damn these nailbiters.
... ALL HAIL JOEY PORTER! Oh the sack.
... Bettis fumbles! They recover and run that shit to midfield. Holy shit. The Colts are still alive. Holy Miracle at the Meadowlands.
... The FG ... I T ' S N O G O O D! I T ' S N O G O O D!
... Final score, Steelers more, Colts less. Game over. Hug your momma, hug your papa, kiss your wife, pat the little children on the head. And everyone run some victory laps.
... Well, that went just about exactly as I called it.
... P.S. We'll still name the next boy Jerome.
Rivers, who played a little running back in the 90s and now writes novels about the mob fixing NFL games, is writing stuff about tomorrow's game that we want to read. Being too good in the regular season had the 15-1 Steelers a little tight in the 2005 playoffs. Hmmm. Here's hoping Rivers is right.
Sounds like the name of a drink. I like how Ed Eagle calls Tracy's brainchild "sadistic." Wilbur, explain how that's advertising & not journalism.
This Jim Tracy is a piece of work.
"The environment was very loose, which is what I like to see, and yet within the framework of that looseness was a very businesslike approach."
It's quite a change from Joe Liggins. Pretty much all he did was cuss, right?
One thing going for the Steelers tomorrow is the fact that this is their second straight road game. Recently, all visitors, regardless of the spread, have won about 42% of all games. If you break that down into teams that are coming off a home game and teams that are coming off a road game, the team that has just hit the road wins about 41% and the team playing the second consecutive road game wins about 45% of all games.
Before you read on, keep in mind that all of this is alchemy and for entertainment purposes only. I don't wager real money on NFL games, mainly because you must win 60% or more to break even under the current tax laws.
In games where the home team is favored by three or more points, those numbers fall considerably for the visitor. Here the visitor wins about 27% of the time, with the visitor coming off a road game winning 31%.
Also favoring the Steelers here is the fact that visitors coming off a convincing win (SU and ATS) do better than visitors who only won, only covered, or lost miserably the previous week. To a lesser extent than baseball, football is a game of streaks. You can do OK by simply riding the hottest teams.
In games like tomorrow's case, with the visiting team coming off a road game in which they won SU and ATS, since 2002, the visitors won 13 of 38 games in which the home team was heavily favored. That's 34%, which is a robust winning chance for a heavy-underdog visitor.
So there are factors here that make me like the Steelers a lot ATS. (Visitors covered 25 of 38 in that same sample, or 66% of the time.) They are on the road again. And they just won convincingly, and thus can be fairly judged as on the rise. And I like the under, as I explained in the previous post.
I know the Steelers lost by 19 points in their last game, when their offensive line, quarterback, and running game were not close to full strength. The current line of about ten points measures public opinion more than it measures a scientific difference between the teams. In the Sagarin ratings, for example, the Steelers trail the Colts by three points overall and by only one point in "PREDICTOR," his best measure for forecasting games. Given the state of the Steelers the last time they played, and their improved health now, I'd say a more rational line would be in the four to six point range, which includes three points for home-field advantage.
I like the under and for sure I like the Steelers to cover that spread. Will they win the game outright? That's all that matters. I guess their chances to win straight up are better than most believe. I bet the number is 34% or more. Maybe 40%. As a Steeler fan, I've been on the wrong side of this kind of playoff game too often. It's not easy dominating all season long, then playing a home playoff game as a heavy favorite against an experienced and long-winning team. The Colts will have a struggle.
My gut says the game will play something like the Steelers-Patriots playoff game last year. The Steelers pounded the Patriots in the regular season, and then they got pounded in the playoffs. As the Sports Pickle reminds us in that satire (previous post), the Colts do not have a lot of positive playoff experience.
That said, it's more likely that a bunch of false start penalties and a porous third-down defense will give the game away. It's hard to see how the Steelers should be favored to win outright.
But the Steelers have more than a fair shot to shock the world and win this thing.
I'll go out on a limb and offer a prediction in which the Steelers win. Should they win, I see something like a 24-16 nailbiter in which they get a lead, sit on it, dominate the time of possession in the second half, and turn back a last-minute no-huddle drive for the tie.
Young is the ginormous guy the Pirates released a few years ago. Baltimore cut him to make room for Kevin Millar.
He'll make about 3.3 million, which is on the low side of what has been discussed as a probable arbitration number. Not that anyone knew what they were talking about when the $4M number was thrown about.
DK has been bringing mostly good news from Pirates mini-camp. On Thursday, he reported that Burnett and JVB are both throwing and looking good.
"I'm like a kid in a candy store," Van Benschoten said, smiling. "It's like a whole new beginning, a new arm, new everything."Burnett's a little further ahead in his surgery recovery and conceivably could make the rotation this spring.
Yesterday, DK had the Kip Wells angle. Colborn is working on instilling mechanical consistency and mental positivity into Erratic Kip.
"I can tell you Jim Colborn has had success in getting results out of pitchers with a lot less talent than Kip Wells," Tracy said.Tracy speaks the truth, as Colborn somehow got a 1.25 WHIP out of Jose Lima, who BTW, claimed that he's had negotiations with the Bucs.
More good news comes today, with Jose Castillo reporting fully recovered. Plus Ollie's "whistling fastball after fastball in free and easy fashion." However, Colborn "cast a more critical eye" and busted Ollie's chops over the mechanics.
"The more experience Oliver gets, the more he'll know when to get funky and when to go with his standard stuff," Colborn said. "If he wants to do a Luis Tiant twist, go sidearm, whatever, that's fine by me. I don't have a problem with how Oliver Perez pitches. It's entertaining to me. And you don't want to get in the way of a guy's style. But my job is to help him understand what's strong and what's weak about what he's doing."If Kip and Ollie rebound, and Duke and Maholm continue to excel, the Bucs could break .500 this year, even with all the new gimpy vets.
Ryan collects stuff for you. Scroll down below the shameless plugs and sci-fi geek out. (What is it with bloggers and sci-fi? I haven't geeked out on science fiction since I read Gibson's "Neuromancer" in Analog magazine in like 1984. Maybe I am missing something.)
You don't have to be shackled to a cubicle or worship the Boston book learning to appreciate the merits of OPS. Dan Fox for the Hardball Times offers this introduction to the stat & why it's useful.
The problem with OPS is that it overstates the value of low-OBP, high-SLG hitters. And it underestimates the value of high-OBP, low-SLG hitters. A player who hits .330 with a .390 OBP and a .460 SLG is more productive than a guy who gets his 850 OPS by hitting .260 with a .320 OBP and a .530 SLG. For that reason, BRA (mentioned in the article) is a better measure of overall run-making value.
The problem with BRA is you can't talk about it or calculate it in your head. There, .190 or .200 is the line between OK and really good. That will never make sense as a TV graphic. OPS does, and we'll continue to see it spreading through the mainstream.
Zoom in on PNC Park and you see a game in progress. Looks like the late innings of a Pirates day game and, from the size of the crowd, I'd guess the Pirates are getting clobbered. There's a man on first and a right-handed hitter at the plate.
Heinz Field looks worn and still shows the paint from a Pitt game.
Google Earth is finally available for Macs, which is why I'm just now using it. Go get it. I don't have the link handy, but I'm sure you could, uh, google it.
...Looking at the other stadiums, I find people in Citizens' Bank in Philadelphia. Looks like four or five guys standing around home plate. Game also in progress in Yankee Stadium. Curiously, Petco is not even built yet in Google's satellite photo.
You know the baseball season is close when the Bradenton paper starts reporting on the Pirates.
Wow.
If the Pirates keep him healthy and do not play him while hurt, as the Reds obviously did, they should get good performance from Casey at the plate. We'd rather see 450 quality plate appearances than 600 mediocre-to-poor ones. And if Casey can perform as well at the plate as a first baseman must, then of course the Pirates should sign him for 2007 and beyond.
The over/under is 47. In the average game, the teams combine for about 40-42 points. This big spread, medium-to-high over/under is typical for Colts home games this season. Unlike the Dome Rams of a few years ago, the Dome Colts have not had consistently enormous over/unders out of respect for their defense. They have not been predicted to win shootouts but to win blowouts.
In 2005, the Colts hosted four bad teams. The schlubs were Cleveland (the line was visitor +13.5, over/under 46.5), St. Louis (+13.5, 46.5), Houston (+17.5, 44.5), and Tennessee (+15.5, 50.5). (I am throwing out week 17.) We don't see many games with medium totals (44.5) and huge spreads (17.5) since they forecast scores like 31-13. That's a ballsy prediction. Anyone bettor who believes in parity or even the "any given Sunday" proverb should be all over those unlikely predictions. The Colts went 4-0 against those lousy teams, covered 2 of 4, and went over 2 of 4.
But so what; those were Homecoming games for Tony Dungy's team.
The Colts faced three quality opponents at home. They were Pittsburgh (+8.5, 45.5), Jacksonville (+8.5, 45.5), and San Diego (+7.5, 51.5). The Colts won two of three. They covered only once, and all three games went under.
So even when the Colts were firing on all cylinders, they were generally overrated as scoring machines. Even when they won and stifled the opponent's offense, they failed to score enough to drive the total over.
The Steelers covered six of eight on the road, and they were favored in all but two. In only one road game they failed to cover (the Indy game). The Steelers went under in every one of their road games, except the San Diego game, which went over by two points. The under must be a good bet when you like the Steelers to win. Knowing how they like to win games, it makes sense.
So without even capping the Steelers' chance of winning this straight up, I am liking the under. It makes sense. The Steelers D has been very good on the road, and the Colts' offense has been overrated at home.
I don't expect a high-scoring game. My guess is that there's maybe a sixty percent chance the score is at or below the 23-21, 21-17, 24-17 range.
In the next installment, I'll look more at winning and losing.
Are you sitting down? This one, from Beaver County Times beat writer & Baseball America writer John Perrotto, is a real doozy:
The Pirates have talked to Baltimore about possibly trading for outfielder Luis Matos as insurance in case Chris Duffy, who hit .341 in 39 games as a rookie last season, isn't ready to be the everyday center fielder. Matos, 27, hit .280 with four homers, 32 RBIs and 17 steals in 121 games for the Orioles last season.
Seriously, I don't know what would be the price of Matos. I know two things, however. First, we need a lot of centerfielders with that big left field. Second, this is probably about Burnitz's ability to play center. If he's not a legitimate option out there for a few days, then we need a fifth outfielder. It would not be wise to use Nate McLouth as a fifth outfielder if the team hopes he might some day be used as a regular starter. It would probably be better for his development to play every day at AAA.
People say that all the time; I'm not sure it's true. I would probably rather be a bench player studying big-league pitchers and making notes for flash cards I would study in the hotel room. Others seem to think you need to keep hitting something every day if you are going to continue to improve as a hitter. My hunch is the Pirates would rather not carry McLouth, who they regard as a prospect, as a fifth outfielder.
Just heard that my eight-year-old brother fought with his older brothers and my father about the name of the Steelers' coach this past Sunday. He insisted it was "Coach Noll." It took some work to persuade him otherwise.
More evidence that Steelerism is an inherited trait and not a learned behavior. How else would the eight-year-old manifest that atavism?
One annual story we get to follow is, "Who will grab the fifth starter's job?" This one bores me since most every team uses eight to ten starters over the course of a season. A run through the yearly stats shows the Pirates have been giving five or more starts to eight or nine guys. Six or more will get ten starts.
The Pirates have lined up, in no particular order, Zach Duke, Oliver Perez, Paul Maholm, and Kip Wells. They'll have the first crack at twenty-five starts. Only two to four will manage that many.
Just as no four players will combine to produce the 2800 plate appearances the team will enjoy at 1B, RF, CF, and LF, so will no four pitchers combine for anything even close to 162 starts.
Even March rotations comprised of "proven veteran" starters rarely produce more than two to four twenty-five game starters. So it's no knock on our top four to speculate that more than half the 2006 games will be started, in all likelihood, by other pitchers.
The competition for the fifth starter's job will tell us a lot about April, but maybe not so much about August and September. No one shed any tears if your boy loses out on the fifth starter's job. If he's any good at pitching, the odds are good that he'll still have plenty of opportunities to become a mainstay in the rotation.
People are talking about Jeff Weaver. Since the Pirates have (in no particular order) Ryan Vogelsong, Ian Snell, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Tom Gorzelanny,and Victor Santos worth a look, and even perhaps Bryan Bullington and Brandon Duckworth, they are pretty stocked. All of these guys are unproven, but so is the rotation. The Pirates can line them up, let them take turns, and reward the ones who pitch well with more turns in the rotation. We didn't add Manny Ramirez in the offseason. We're still relying heavily on unproven position players. I don't see much need for "proven starters."
As he ran off the field through a tunnel ringed by delirious Steelers fans, Bettis was serenaded with chants of "Four more years, four more years" -- a plea to the 13-year running back not to retire at the end of the season.
That from Gerry Dulac's report on the Steelers win.
Can you imagine what Bettis would look like four years from now, in uniform for the 2009 season?
He'd look great. They should expand the NFL rosters by one or two spots. With strict restriction--every team has to use them for geezers.
Ed Eagle's take:
The plan heading into Spring Training is for Doumit and Cota to split time. However, the team's brain trust would probably love to see Doumit emerge as the everyday catcher.Cota showed last season that he could be a serviceable big-league starter. He improved his defense and game calling, and he came through with more than his fair share of clutch hits. But Doumit has a higher ceiling because of his potential to be an offensive threat from both sides of the plate. If he can turn that potential into production, Doumit will get the majority of starts behind the plate.
So what about Ronny Paulino? Will he wait for a Cota trade? Theoretically, you'd hope the team would do better than carry three catchers.
Seriously, hats off to those guys for turning things around and playing like a serious football team. If my team went twelve, thirteen, or fourteen years without a winning season, I don't know what I'd be doing as a fan. I'm sure I'd be all sad.
Thank God that's never happened with one of my teams. But for the grace of God, however ....
As Keano suggested in the comments, we might all want a look at this article by Murray Chass on the Burnitz signing. He did not take and fail a physical, as Gammons and others suggested.
Big game in Kentucky. I've got the red beans on the stove and the porter in the fridge, and I'm thinking about frying some chicken.
Anything could happen today. All the pre-game coverage has done the Bengals a favor. They arrive with more to gain and less to lose. All the talk about Roethlisberger drowning in the 2005 playoffs, for example, has considerably lowered the bar for Carson Palmer. He'll have a good game, I expect.
That said, I would not want to play the Steelers right now.
Geoff Baker reporting for the Toronto Star:
"We've always liked him, but I don't know what his availability is," Ricciardi said.The Pirates have said they're going to hold on to Wilson, but that sounds like posturing by the budget-conscious team. Ricciardi said he'd only do a "one-for-one" trade for Wilson, meaning a current major leaguer or a better minor-league prospect, but no more packages like he did in the Lyle Overbay trade with Milwaukee.
The more I think on it, the more I like the Burnitz signing if the Pirates keep Craig Wilson. Odds are, he will see plenty of playing time. I don't buy the argument that the Burnitz signing eats significantly into his play. He won't start on Opening Day, sure. But he'll see plenty of action. And if one of the middle-of-the-order guys goes down with an injury, he can step in. If the rookie centerfielders flop, he can play right and Burnitz can play center. If everyone stays healthy and productive, the Pirates might enjoy a pretty good season. And Craig Wilson will make a much bigger difference as a pinch-hitter than Noonie or Bobby Hill.
They need to keep this guy if they are serious about being a better ballclub in 2006. They've told us repeatedly that money is not an issue. They can prove this is more than posturing. If I ran the circus, that's what I would do. And I would enjoy doing it.
Washington is crushing Tampa Bay. In the more interesting game, J'ville and New England go at it later. I expect J'ville will play well, keep it close, and lose on a last-minute Vinateri field goal.
Indictments against Capco for their "work" at PNC Park? I am rubbing my eyes and blinking. That's Joe Mandak reporting for the AP.
Puh-leaze. Pat of Andy Van Slyke found The Onion commenting on the Pirates' recent acquisitions. Ha ha, very funny.
Pat also has a series of posts on the "evil genius" of David Littlefield here. This is a familiar argument; we've heard it before.
It doesn't mesh with my generous yet low opinion of human nature, however. I can't be persuaded that the GM and the owners don't want to win. I can be persuaded that they don't know how to win, but the argument that they are just milking the club for millions and laughing their asses off from some yacht in Florida, that doesn't jibe with my understanding of baseball people. Feel free to disagree; it's a free country.
And as for the argument that they are playing like the first half of 2006 is all that matters, to that I say Amen. Of course the first half of the season is all that matters. Any team that's out of contention at the All-Star break only plays mainly meaningless exhibition games the rest of the way. What fan wants to pay to see that?
I don't know how to do the math to support this, but this is why, for example, I don't put much stock in Freddy Sanchez's hot September. It was September, and the Pirates were cruising to 60-some wins. Nice homestand against Eric Milton, Luke Hudson, Matt Belisle, and the rest of the fifth-place Reds. He stunk at the plate the rest of the year. Sure, more recent performance should weigh heavier in projections of future performance. At the same time, however, there's no denying that there are varying levels of play. As much as the teams advertise that they play hard all year long, no matter what, common sense and personal experience prove that's bluster.
This is also why I was so pissed at Lloyd McClendon for not managing the 2004 opening series like it was a playoff series. And at Craig Wilson for his miserable April.
As the Pirates fall out of contention, I can not help thinking that it gets easier for most of them, as individuals, to produce good-looking statistics--if they have the will to do this in an atmosphere of loss and resignation. If it's easier for players on winning teams to stay motivated, they certainly do not face the same quality of opponent as teams renowned for incompetence. The Cardinals, who went 12-4 against the Pirates last year, will come to town and not play Jim Edmonds, saving him for their next series, against the Cubs or the Astros. When the Pirates go to New York and Boston, those teams don't juggle their rotations so that their aces pitch more often than their fifth starters. The statistics generated by all players do not have the same predictive value. Everything could be adjusted or translated for winning percentage. If Roy Oswalt mows down a Spring Training lineup in late September, that's not the same indicator of greatness as Roy Oswalt mowing down a 98-win lineup in October.
April is October for this club. So hell yeah, manage the team like the first half is all that counts. I'd go farther and manage the team like April is all that counts. Don't give us the "it's a long season" bullshit like McClendon did in response to our anger last April.
The only argument against playing to win now is that the Pirates might win more later if they deliberately lose now. And this, I've come to think, this "losing to win" strategy, is just bullshit. Nine out of ten "rebuilding" programs fail.
The team - all teams - should play to win every year. If the season devolves into several months of largely meaningless exhibitions, then we can talk about regarding the season as so many auditions and learning experiences - if anyone is around to listen.
Good news: "We are about as healthy as we have been all year going into the game," coach Bill Cowher said.
The economy must be pretty hard down there:
A Pittsburgh ticket broker told the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday he's getting many calls from Bengals fans trying to sell their tickets."If the game was in Pittsburgh, you couldn't pry a ticket out of a fan's hands," broker Robert Mancuso said. "In Cincinnati, if you put $100 in front of them, they'll take it."
Joe Rutter reports here. So, who wants it more?
Ryan has stuff to say.
I don't take regular-season wins for granted. I like his record very much. Playoff losses suck because they gnaw at you the entire offseason. Still, there's only one team each year that ends the season with a win. I don't want to lose Cowher.
Dejan Kovacevic reports.
"That's crazy that they came after me two years in a row," [Burnitz] said.
It gets better:
He explained he chose the Pirates because they play 12 games in or near southern California compared to Baltimore's three.
I'd say that too, if my wife was on the couch next to me. I'd lay it on thicker.
And finally, some sense from Littlefield:
He also said he does not intend to trade Craig Wilson, even though Burnitz and Casey will start in right field and first base, Wilson's two positions, and even though Wilson could make $4 million or more next season."Whether it's media or fans, everybody has to realize that, if we are going to get better, part of it is having better backups," Littlefield said. "Through ownership, we've been able to increase payroll, so you're going to have the opportunity to have quality backups. Craig brings things that we need. He has power, gets on base and has versatility in the field. To me, that piece makes a lot of sense for us."
Hell yeah, keep that mo'fo Craig Wilson. Don't make Sean Casey play when he's gimpy, like they did in Cincinnati. Expect Burnitz to miss time--he's an OLD MAN. And don't fear the jumbo outfield of Bay, Burnitz, and Wilson.
I guess the Steelers have an 8% chance of winning three road games and reaching the Super Bowl. Which is better, I think, than the Bengals' chances.
Steeler fans, if you're not reading Ryan's stuff at Heels, Sox, and Steelers, you should be.
I'll never quite understand the whole "Sox" thing, but the Steelers stuff is good reading.
Bob Smizik reports that KDKA might lose the Pirates to rival Clear Channel. The Pirates want to reach a younger audience. I wonder this might coincide with some kind of shake-up of the broadcast crew.
John Perrotto, today:
While the Pirates still have enough room to fit first baseman/outfielder Craig Wilson into their expanded payroll that is rising from $32 million to $49 million this year, they figure to intensify their efforts to trade him.Dejan Kovacevic, this morning:Wilson made $3 million last season when he was limited to 59 games because of hand injuries. As a arbitration-eligible player, he figures to get at least a slight raise despite getting only 197 at bats and hitting .264 with five homers and 22 RBIs.
Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Wilson, though Cleveland's interest appears to have waned now that the Indians have struck a tentative deal with free-agent first baseman Eduardo Perez.
Burnitz's acquisition and the trade for first baseman Sean Casey appear to bump Craig Wilson out of the Pirates' plans. Wilson, 29, plays first and right field, and he is unlikely to be retained as a bench player with a salary in the range of $4 million, which is what he is expected to receive this month."I really don't know what their plan is," Wilson said last night from his home in California. "I'm hoping to be part of it somewhere."
Wilson is coming off a season in which two injuries to his left hand limited him to 59 games. The Pirates have made known their desire to trade him but are believed to have had difficulty generating interest because of his injuries.
The Pirates should hold onto Craig Wilson. He's an expensive insurance policy and back-up player, but with this cast of starters, he figures to see plenty of playing time. Plus, if the rest of the league is not sold on the strength of his grip, they should only trade him now, while his stock is low, if they too doubt he can impress anyone in the first half of 2006.
The Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic explains the Burnitz signing. He reports that no one, especially the Pirates, has much confidence in Craig Wilson:
Chris Duffy will start in center and, unless he implodes in spring training, is going to bat leadoff. That will make for an outfield of Bay, Duffy and Burnitz.What will happen to Wilson is that he will continue to be shopped for a trade but, as I wrote in the newspaper for today, that does not mean there is a willing partner. Hand injuries tend to be very scary for teams looking into making commitments for hitters (Pat Meares, anyone?), and I have heard that the interest in Wilson has been minimal.
Wilson's a free agent at the end of 2006. If he comes back from those injuries, the Pirates will trade him for sure.
So Preston Wilson is not the only CF-capable slugger still out there. Dejan Kovacevic and John Perrotto both report that Burnitz is the word. This Thursday, December 29 entry (scroll down) in Dan Szymborski's Transaction Oracle had me thinking Burnitz was signed with Baltimore.
As Szymborski notes so elegantly, Burnitz's career appears to be trending downward. As in, downward to an end, a stop, a cessation of effective plate appearing. He'll be 37 in 2006 and 38 in 2007. Projections are not kind for players at this age. Going into 2005, he was projected by Perrotto fave, Bill James, to hit .246 / .327 / .477 with 27 doubles and 31 homers in Colorado. James's book ranked Burnitz's injury risk as "high." Nate Silver projected .251 / .328 / .480 with 19 doubles and 22 home runs. If you think those projections were bad, wait to you see the ones for 2006. If you clicked on that last link, you've already seen Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projection.
Last year, Burnitz finished at .258 / .322 / .435 with 31 homers and 24 homers for Chicago. He outperformed the 2005 projections for the first half of the season, but he limped home, hitting only .237 / .300 / .387 in 2005's second half. I wish there was some evidence of an injury; then I could spin it Sean Casey-style. Instead it looks like he got old and feeble-sticked.
He's streaky, he strikes out a lot. He's Craig Wilson without the high-HBP on-base percentage. He hits for power. Like all teams, we need more of that. Assuming Craig Wilson has or will recover from the hand injuries of 2005, he will probably outhit Burnitz in 2006.
If you've done your your Pirates Sudoku, you know we need more PA in the outfield. A Burnitz signing would not influence Craig Wilson's final PA numbers so much as it limits the PA that appear to immediately fall to Nate McLouth. Right now I'm guessing that Burnitz and Craig Wilson both stand to see something in the 400-450 PA range. Burnitz would not replace Craig Wilson so much as he'd double the at-bats we can expect from a Craig Wilson-like hitter. That is a good thing--if Burnitz can hit that well at 37.
The fear with Burnitz is the projection, and the problem with the projection is the age. Nate Silver has his comparable players as Fred Lynn, Dave Henderson, Bill Nicholson, Hubie Brooks, Dale Long, Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Donn Clendenon, Dale Murphy, Tino Martinez, Tony Perez, Ron Gant, George Foster, Graig Nettles, Doug DeCinces, Kirk Gibson, Joe Carter, Deron Johnson, Ben Oglivie, and Charlie Maxwell. Baseball-Reference sees Jay Buhner, Darryl Strawberry, Ron Gant, Reggie Sanders, David Justice, Bill Nicholson, Eric Davis, Frank Thomas, Ray Lankford, and Roy Sievers. That's good company, for sure, but we're only looking at the end of these careers. Of this group, the players who were still good at age 37 and 38 are modern ones. Reggie Sanders can still hit, but he managed only 350 PA last year, his 37 season. For the D'backs, Steve Finley had two full and solid seasons at 37 and 38. Ellis Burks, long-time Bones and Rowdy favorite, mashed at 37 for the 2002 Indians. A generation or so back, the great Tony Perez's 37 and 38 seasons looked much like Burnitz's 36 season. Graig Nettles remained league-average for his 37 and 38 seasons. Freddy Lynn managed 400 mediocre PA at age 37. The rest of the players on the list were done at 37.
Is Burnitz done? I don't know. That second half was not good. I suppose that, with their high salaries and advanced medical crap, today's players may age more gracefully than those of previous generations. I'm not sure I believe this, however; such arguments sound, to me, like naive progressivism. Maybe it's true. Maybe not. Either way, general trends in player aging will do very little to determine just how Jeromy Burnitz ages.
Burnitz or no Burnitz, the Pirates need an outfielder, someone who could conceivably play some CF. He may be the best available option. Until we see what rate and length Preston Wilson gets in his next contract, it will be difficult to know if Burnitz at two years and twelve million is a good idea. I would have traded Oliver Perez by now, but Littlefield wants to hold onto him another year. If we won't trade a player to get a player, we have to sign one of the available sluggers.
If Burnitz is healthy after the ASB, maybe the Pirates could trade him. I dunno. My guess is that Burnitz will be fine for the first half of 2005. At any moment, however, the earth could split and swallow him up. We could say that about all the players, sure. But Burnitz is not young enough to expect any quick or full recovery from whatever might be his next injury. Won't Burnitz take one year and eight million? I'd rather do that than have him on the books for six million in 2007.
I'm having this to celebrate the finer things of the new year.
This is good. You have to decant it, which I like, considering that we don't brook cant here at Honest Wagner. A beer shouldn't come with cant in the first place, of course. But this way I know for sure there's no cant about it.
As Ms. Rowdy might say, it has a certain je ne sais yum. About 6%.
Unless Trib writer Rob Rossi moonlights for a Spanish-language paper, it looks like the Tribune-Review will report in a few hours that the Pirates are interested in Slammin' Sammy Sosa. This from a rumor site from Bleed Cubbie Blue, who drool a little at the thought that the Cubs could acquire Craig Wilson.
The Bucs should definitely take a flyer on some one or two of Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, and/or Richard Hidalgo, if they come at the right price.
But I still think the need is not for a Craig Wilson replacement, but for an upgrade in the outfield who could play right and quietly back up Sam and Frodo (KPatrick's phrase), two guys about who management won't say a bad thing. That's my theory, and it's based on the fact that the other two guys they tried to get - Encarnacion and Byrnes - can play center if needed.
Jason Bay is not a centerfield backup since LF is another CF in PNC Park. Craig Wilson can't play centerfield, but him we need to back up Sean Casey. And him we need for his offense. Like Rob Mackowiak last year, Craig Wilson will get plenty of playing time even if the Pirates sign Preston Wilson, the guy they really ought to get, I think. So I doubt Craig's going anywhere.
With the Broncos victory today, the Steelers need a win or a Chiefs loss to make the playoffs.
All hail the Bus, who will likely play his final home game.
I can't picture this game being close. Look for the porous Lions D to give up the run, and the porous Lions OL to introduce Joey to Joey. Steelers 45, Lions 0.
AP story now making the rounds. Wow and good luck.
Happy New Year's Eve everyone.
I'm touring the blogs tonight, catching up all around, and I find this comical series of posts (click the links) by Jay Jaffe. The subject? His experience with the PG's Gene Collier, who calls Jaffe a "seamhead on crystal math." (Would such analysis soothe some meth addicts? I wonder.)
I'm amused that these guys can't get along, and I feel bad for Jaffe, who, in a perfect world, would have known better than to have expected better treatment from Collier.
Here's a tip for non-Pirate fans everywhere: stay away from the PG sports editorials. At the PG, read Dejan Kovacevic and Brian O'Neill. Their other beat writers are OK too, as are the beat writers at the Trib. And seek out John Perrotto's work at the Beaver County Times.
And for the record, I'm not choosing sides in the Collier-Jaffe debate. Why? I don't care much who's in and who's out of the Hall of Fame.
Mark Donohue reviews the bottom feeders of baseball in this piece for Baseball Toaster. I was shocked to read that "somehow the mind skips over the Pirates when you think of the worst teams in baseball." Clearly Mark is not living in the eastern time zone.
Make your own depth chart with this offseason game.
The Pirates, as a team, will make about 6050 PAs in 2006. Pitchers account for 300 of those, leaving 5750 for the position players. In 2005, the actual number was 5735; in 2004, 5743.
Study these pages. You will see, over the years, how few players manage 500 PAs. How many slide in around 350 PA. And, if you Diddle with the "select split" drop-down menu, you can see how each of the various positions accounts for 650-700 PAs.
In an Excel spreadsheet, measure the current 40-man roster. Put the players in the first column. Each position then gets its own column. Spread the PT across each row. Total it for players at the end of each row. Total for positions at the top of each column.
The goals are two-fold: do not allot an unrealistic amount of PT to any one player. And allot roughly the same amount of PT to each position.
Based on recent years, I suggest these totals for each position: c, 650; 1b, 700; 2b, 650; SS, 675; 3b, 675; lf, 700; cf, 700; rf, 700; misc (DH+PH), 300. You can adjust the numbers a bit, so long as the final total is 5750. If you're convinced the shortstop will bat eighth all year, you might adjust that number to 650 and add PT for C or 2b.
Like all projection systems, this one will produce results that look half-right, half-silly in the mid-season. But it also serves to give you a good idea of how much the team will rely on certain utility players. When I did this last year, for example, I was able to correctly predict that, though he was not an opening-day starter, Rob Mackowiak would have no problem getting 500 PAs on that team.
Back when I had tons of free time, I used to do this for all the teams as a way of finding roto sleepers. Have fun. I have my grid filled out, but it needs more thought I think. I'll publish my answers sometime next week.
To follow-up on a thoughtful comment charlie left in the comments to the previous post, I agree the Pirates need better OF depth at AAA.
My strategy right now would be to view Duffy and McLouth as the centerfielders of the future. I pick one - Duffy I suppose - and start him in Pittsburgh. I send the other to AAA to start every day and wait for the gimp-phone to ring. If Casey goes down and Wilson is needed at first, if Gerut can't go, if Duffy can't hit or maims himself crashing into a wall, etc., McLouth would be the guy to get the call. I'd move him right into an every day job.
This means the Pirates need someone who can play centerfield. The obvious answer, looking at the guys left on the market, is Preston Wilson. If the Bucs can sign him to a high-paying one-year gig, then they plug him in right field. Craig Wilson will play when Casey has an ache. Or, in the somewhat likely scenario that Duffy's first season as the starting centerfielder begins to resemble Tike Redman's first season as the same, then Preston slides into center and Wilson starts in right. Or, in the equally likely scenario that Preston gimps his knee sliding into second, then Craig takes over job and McLouth comes up to ride the pine.
One other thing. I wrote this in the comments, but not everyone reads them, so I will write it again. It regards the curiously sensitive subject of Craig Wilson.
Here it is: I do not believe everything I read in the papers. Just because management whispers disparaging remarks to folks who, they know, will print them, that does not mean they believe such things. The Pirates are taking Craig Wilson to arbitration, so there's no point in them singing his praises. And while they have good reason to be concerned about the rookies slated for CF next year, it makes sense to me that they would also have good reason not to express any shaky confidence about the young guys to the newspaper. Why be honest and tell the Trib that you are worried about Duffy's ability to hit major-league pitching, and thus want a plan B for CF (Encarnacion, Byrnes)? Why not blame the need for another OF on Craig Wilson? He's a good sport, and he's used to such abuse. He's been taking it for years. Why change that story when it's still handy? And, further, if the management can promote the notion that he's underappreciated in Pittsburgh, well that would seem, to me, to increase his profile as someone a team would do well to go get in trade. That's just so much more honey for catching flies. Any time someone is suckered into thinking he's just made a great deal, there has to be some kind of narrative that makes it seem plausible.
Just because some source said the Pirates would love to have Eric Byrnes and start him ahead of Craig Wilson, that does not mean - especially the night before another team signs him - that this was true. The last two and a half years, Craig Wilson has started every game and hit in the middle of the lineup when healthy. And all the while someone has been feeding the beat reporters disparaging quotes. Actions speak louder than words here.
We have to remember that GMs are part politicians, part poker players, and part used-car salesmen. Why should we take everything Littlefield says, or everything his assistants leak, at face value?
The Pirates need another outfielder, as I argued in the previous post, and if they want to blame that need on Craig Wilson, fine. It does not change the fact that they need another outfielder.
I understand the need to add a corner outfielder, and I'm not sure it's because upgrading that position will make the Pirates wild-card contenders.
The Pirates currently have a collection of unproven and unreliable players for center and right. Even if we love Craig Wilson and think the world of his ability as a hitter, it would not be prudent to expect more than 450 PAs from him. He has that injury thing. If we are going to say that about Sean Casey, it has to be said about Craig Wilson. I don't know much about his recent hand injuries, either. Are they Pat Mearesish? I don't know. Let's guess that he's fine, but likely to miss time with a back problem or another HBP dent, as usual. Or likely to slump very hard and need days off. So then a bright yet prudent forecast for Craiggers production is 450 PAs.
The Pirates will get about 2100 PAs from their outfielders in 2006 - about 700 per position. Jason Bay will soak up 650 in left. Center appears to be manned by Chris Duffy and Nate Dykstra McLouth. What are they good for? I hesitate to expect more than 500 PAs from any player who has never finished a 500 PA big-league season. If we guess they both will hit well enough to earn 450 PAs, which seems very sunny and not prudent to me, then with Bay the Pirates have (650+900) or 1550 PAs budgeted.
Sean Casey looks good for 550 PAs at first. The Bucs will need an additional 150 from other guys. Let's continue with the positive vibrations and assume that Eldred continues to press for big-league PT. Give him 100, a one-month cup of Joe or two fill-in appearances the length of a short DL trip. Give Craig Wilson the other 50.
So Craig Wilson would have about 400 PAs worth of a productive Craigger season in right field. With the 1550 portioned to Bay and the two centerfielding youngsters, the Pirates now have 1950 PAs. That gives the Pirates 150 more for . . .
Jody Gerut. Given his injury troubles and nasty platoon splits, I think it would be too optimistic to forecast more than 250 PAs for him in 2005.
Now the outfield looks full up, until we remember that the Pirates will need a DH (about 25 PA) and many PH appearances (about 250 PA). Doumit can soak up some pinch-hitting duties, and Freddy Sanchez can play the Bobby Hill/Noonie role. So right now the Pirates do not urgently need outfielders off the bench; having a surplus of 100 is probably OK from that perspective.
But, unless the Pirates add an outfielder capable of contributing 450 quality PAs, they are banking on (a) Craig Wilson being healthy and productive, (b) Chris Duffy staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, (c) Nate McLouth staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, and (d) Jody Gerut being useful off the bench.
Is that prudent? Is it wise? Chris Duffy finished last year strong. Tike Redman was also coming off a strong second half when he began his first season as the starting centerfielder. Remember Tony Alvarez? J.J. Davis? Are we so sure that Duffy and McLouth are more sure to succeed?
Should the Pirates lose any one of those four players, or should any one of those four players flop, who do we have in the minors worth the call? Are we as high on Rajai Davis as we are on Jose Bautista?
The Pirates need to add someone worth throwing into the OF mix. Then let the players compete for playing time, and play the best ones. Since they want to see what they got in Duffy and McLouth, and since they don't want to prevent Wilson or Gerut from contributing if and when he's able, the need looks, to me, to be more about finding someone who fits. They don't need to find a Joe Randa of right field.
The right-field situation is not so much about Craig Wilson and the Pirates' faith in his ability to be healthy and hit ball hard. I've grown tired of seeing the issue framed that way exclusively. The spokespeople for the team may be more comfortable singling him out or whatever, but this is not just about Craig Wilson. It's also about Duffy, McLouth, Gerut, Rajai Davis, and the odds that the Pirates have 1200 quality plate appearances - that's two full-time players - in that group.
Nice hometown look at Ryan Doumit.
Before we criticize the Pirates for bringing in Randa and Casey and not "seeing what we got" in Sanchez and Eldred, remember that the Pirates will be "seeing what we got" at catcher and centerfield. And second base ... Jose Castillo has yet to complete a 450 PA season. And at closer, and in three-fifths of the starting rotation jobs. There will be plenty of youth served.
I like the Randa signing. One year is fine. We need Sanchez to back up Castillo and Wilson and now, Randa, who is not going to play all 162 games. And if Bautista is ready at the deadline, the Pirates can easily move Joe and get good prospects for him, too, just as the Reds did a few months ago.
The Pirates did not acquire the bat we need to make a big step forward, but going into 2005 we have some good lottery tickets. Ryan Doumit, a 25-year-old switch-hitter who raked in the minors, is one of them. The immediate future of the team will continue to rest on the immediate improvement of the youngest players.
Randa signs for one year and four million dollars. Huh. Will Randa hit second in front of Bay and Manny? On off days at home (while being spelled by Eldred and Freddie), shouldn't Casey and Randa work the crowd, shaking hands, handing out cheap baseball cards and wiffle balls, while being all-around nice guys?
Dejan Kovacevic talks some stuff over in this week's Q&A.
He also asks how we can interest the children in the Pirates. I've found baseball to be a pretty good hobby, so I share his selfless desire to raise our kids just exactly the way I was raised. Here are some suggestions that look beyond the most obvious solutions (WIN MORE GAMES, play more day games, hang the jolly roger in their bedroom, etc.)
1. Unsupervised play. When I was tot, all neighborhood children were unleashed and expelled from the home for several hours in the morning (before lunch) and many hours in the afternoon. Like Kovacevic, I also pretended to be Bruce Kison when I played wiffle ball. Children won't embarrass themselves so readily in front of adults. No one did this kind of role-playing in gym class. Nevermind that it's now a misdemeanor or felony offense to not supervise your children while they play wiffle ball in Drunk Joe's unused backyard. No child can properly learn the game of baseball without a heavy dose of freedom.
2. Cheap baseball cards. Around the late '80s, baseball cards lost most of their value for fan training. People started to regard them as investments, and card companies outdid one another making more and more expensive cards.
Fans raised on the baseball cards of the 1970s derived much greater value from them. They were not investments; they were toys. They were not cherished or encased in plastic; they were used and improved with magic marker. If I got mad at Greg Luzinski, I drew a funny moustache on him and felt good about it. Cards of my youth were not art-objects; they were flash cards. It's how I learned the names, faces, positions, and histories of all the players.
MLB should sponsor and distribute cheap cards to the children. They should be 25 cents a pack, and they should contain at least twelve cards. The Pirates should give away team sets to all fans under 16.
3. Better baseball toys. Too many of the promotional giveaways fall into the art-object / investment category. The Jack Wilson jack-in-the-box idea was brilliant. Future kid-oriented promotional freebies should also target the way children of various ages play. The Pirates should give away wiffle balls. And posable action figures would be a great improvement over bobbleheads.
Looks like the Steelers, unless they self-destruct in the Motor City at home, will be headed for Cincinnati in week one of the playoffs.
If the Chargers beat the Denver Broncos Saturday in San Diego, it will clinch the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC for the Steelers, who play the Lions at Heinz Field. If Denver wins, the Steelers would have to beat or tie the Lions, or the Chiefs would have to lose or tie the Cincinnati Bengals in Kansas City Sunday.Ed Bouchette reporting here....
If the Steelers make the playoffs, their first game will come in Cincinnati unless the Bengals lose and the Patriots win.
One of these days, years and years from now, when I'm like 85, and the Browns have been whipping the Steelers on a regular basis, and the Browns are shutting out the Steelers in Pittsburgh, one thing I will NOT do is run onto the field in the fourth quarter to celebrate mine own assjackery.
... Hoagie brings the video. If you are at work, unless your co-workers like hearing the word "bitch," then you should turn the sound down before playing it.
Perrotto One and Perrotto Two emerge with mischief.
The best thing about the Encarnacion courting is the ridiculous sum the Cardinals pledged to start him in right field. Like Byrnes, Encarnacion looked to me like a decent centerfield backup. Obviously you don't pay someone that much money to back up Chris Duffy. Since a team needs depth at that position, I still expect Littlefield to sign someone who can play center.
Sucks for us that Littlefield could not match Toronto's offer for Glaus. Here's wishing us a Manny New Year.
