Friday, December 30, 2005

Pirates Sudoku

Make your own depth chart with this offseason game.

The Pirates, as a team, will make about 6050 PAs in 2006. Pitchers account for 300 of those, leaving 5750 for the position players. In 2005, the actual number was 5735; in 2004, 5743.

Study these pages. You will see, over the years, how few players manage 500 PAs. How many slide in around 350 PA. And, if you Diddle with the "select split" drop-down menu, you can see how each of the various positions accounts for 650-700 PAs.

In an Excel spreadsheet, measure the current 40-man roster. Put the players in the first column. Each position then gets its own column. Spread the PT across each row. Total it for players at the end of each row. Total for positions at the top of each column.

The goals are two-fold: do not allot an unrealistic amount of PT to any one player. And allot roughly the same amount of PT to each position.

Based on recent years, I suggest these totals for each position: c, 650; 1b, 700; 2b, 650; SS, 675; 3b, 675; lf, 700; cf, 700; rf, 700; misc (DH+PH), 300. You can adjust the numbers a bit, so long as the final total is 5750. If you're convinced the shortstop will bat eighth all year, you might adjust that number to 650 and add PT for C or 2b.

Like all projection systems, this one will produce results that look half-right, half-silly in the mid-season. But it also serves to give you a good idea of how much the team will rely on certain utility players. When I did this last year, for example, I was able to correctly predict that, though he was not an opening-day starter, Rob Mackowiak would have no problem getting 500 PAs on that team.

Back when I had tons of free time, I used to do this for all the teams as a way of finding roto sleepers. Have fun. I have my grid filled out, but it needs more thought I think. I'll publish my answers sometime next week.

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