AFC Championship Game prediction

With two great defenses that shut down the run, I see this eventually turning into Jake vs. Ben. Jake's career postseason stats feature 8 INTs and 6 TDs. (When I adjust these numbers for schedule and weather effects, I get 8 INTs, 0 TDs). I don't expect Jake to reverse that trend tomorrow. Instead, I see a late fourth quarter play where an unblocked Peezy plucks Plummer's beard, Polamalu picks a forced throw, turns upfield, plants a foot in Plummer's chest while breaking a tackle that Ben could've made, and takes it to the house, cementing the victory. Steelers 27, Broncos 13.

Chanting Parrot

It knows what's up.

Best Roethlisburger

Thanks to KM for sending this:

Scramble eggs with sausage and onions and steak-ums. Add American cheese and ketchup and put in a bun.

Anything with Steak-ums sounds good to me. Actually we could call this a Roethlischeesesteak, but we won't be doing that.

Black and Gold and Roethlisburgers

Raise your hand if you wore black and gold to work today. Also, post in comments or send me your recipes for "Roethlis-burgers." I am hungry.

Pete Morelli

SI's Pete McEntegart has fun with the poor sap who tried to fix the game for Indy:

A rock was tossed through the living-room window of NFL referee Pete Morelli's home on Sunday, just hours after he incorrectly overruled an interception by Steelers safety Troy Polamalu. Strangely, Morelli still insists that it's inconclusive whether the projectile broke the pane.

Link here.

Speaking of SI, my copy this week stars Ben in a blue border; the website has the same cover with Matt Hasselbeck. Are they often printing multiple covers these days? Or did they make this Ben cover just for me?

Crazy fans

Have fun.

And here's more. The more fans a team has, the more of this you get. Note too that all of these people look very happy. So what's not to like about it?

We may not win every AFC Championship game, but we sure go to a lot of them. And we enjoy that a lot, it appears.

So the dust has settled and the glow of Sunday's win has gone away. Reading all the papers, it looks like the rest of the world has grown more and more convinced Denver will cruise in this one. And the Broncos are now favored to win the Super Bowl.

Fine with me. Three more days ...

Magic beards

Joe Bendel reports.

Yeah. I hate shaving too.

No. 1 in NFL clothing sales

So much for being in a small market. That and other misc. stuff in Ed Bouchette's notebook.

Give the Pirates a year or two, and they too will lead the league in clothing sales.

Penguins for sale

Story here from the PG. Someone call Mark Cuban.

Pirates sign some guys

I'm paying attention, just have nothing to say. Guys will make what their service time warrants.

Capping the Steelers-Broncos game, pt 2

Last week I noted that teams do better in their second straight road game than they do in a road game off a home game. The Steelers are now playing their third straight road game. That happens so rarely, I don't know what to make of it. Everyone assumes it's a bad thing--could be. Playing in a second straight one looks like a plus to me. Maybe the third is too much.

What I do know for sure, though, is that a home team playing its second straight home game does better than a home team fresh off a road game. I won't bore you with the percentages.

That's the Broncos. So they not only have the home-field advantage, they also have the benefit of the extra week to settle in and improve fortifications.

There's one other angle in play here that I want to mention. The Steelers are a road dog going for a second straight road upset. That rarely happens. The home team wins in about 80% of games with that profile. Teams rarely go on the road and score a second-straight upset victory. A lot of suckers get encouraged by the first upset and think the second is probable. It's not.

The Steelers have something like a one in four chance of winning this, if I look only at the generic profile of the matchup as determined by the two teams' recent history. The Colts game looked much closer to 50-50; the Steelers looked like unusually good road dogs based on the recent play of the two teams. This situation is the opposite. The Steelers have an uphill fight here. Er, upmountain fight.

So I would look for hope in potential mismatches. Are the Broncos missing key players? Are they particularly weak against one of our strengths? That's where I will focus the rest of the week.

Like a lot of Steeler fans, I have the sense that this is a special group of players. And that they are only getting better game to game. Is that enough? We will see.

Heart attack

Literally, this Steeler fan had a heart attack when Bettis fumbled.

You have to love the Steeler fans. They are not the quintessential fan base. Every region has its own way of following their team, and what passes for faith, say, in California or Boston may bear little resemblence to how we do things in Steeler nation. Not everyone around the country or around the world can understand all the crazy things we do and say about our teams.

But there can be no doubt that very few professional sports teams command the respect and attention of their fans the way the Steelers do. Go read O'Neill's explanation of what stopped his heart.

Get well, Terry O'Neill. Maybe some of the players can pay him a visit after practice.

Capping the Steelers-Broncos game, pt 1

The 2005 Broncos played excellent football at home. It's proverbial, I think, not to bet against the Broncos (or the Chiefs) at home. And a little peek at their 2005 home record shows they've more than supported that folk wisdom.

They got the thin air. They got the huge crowds. They got the winning tradition. They got the plush amenities that enfeeble the legs of visiting teams. (Iowa, don't paint the visiting locker room pink: make it plush. Let the enemy overindulge his appetite for comfort before the game. Fire up the mammoth Trojan-Horse-brand hot tub. Stock and unlock the minibars. Spice up the cable television offerings. Even the most grizzled enemy will be a little weak in the legs come game time. And worse for them, they'll be secretly grateful - and soft - for the hospitality.)

The Broncos wined, dined, and laid waste to San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, New England, Philadelphia, the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. This was a much tougher schedule than the one enjoyed by Peyton Manning's team. Note too that the Eagles had not yet self-destructed when they flew to Denver for week 8.

The Broncos won eight and covered six of those home games. They won five and covered four of the first five--and all five of those were like "games of the week." They earned a reputation for squandering big leads, but they finished the home games. So unlike the 2005 Colts, these Broncos have much recent experience playing the Big Game at home. And they did not let down in the others, either, covering two of the three games in which they were favored by two touchdowns. They are as good as it gets at home. Mike Tyson, not Bald Bull.

The Broncos should get four points for home field, not the usual three. And looking at measures like these, the Broncos should lay another point more.

So I think this should be Pittsburgh +5, not Pittsburgh +3. So I would lean Denver ATS for the value. And based on this alone, Denver must have - on paper - something like a 70% chance to win. That is not a prediction at this point. I have other ways of massaging the data. There are more bones to read.

Objectively, the odds are looking to me as about as long as they were against the Colts. Just as many people underestimated the Steelers' chances at Indy, so do many people overestimate their chances at Denver. This is not a 50-50 or 45-55 situation.

Subjectively, I still think the Steelers have yet to put all the parts together and play the game that wants to come out of them. But it's not impressive or noteworthy to say that a lifelong Steeler fan can imagine victory.

So no prediction, but so far the odds look grim and grimmer the more I look.

One last thing: a sidebar on the total. There's no clear pattern on the Denver totals. They went under mostly. Since the Steelers have often gone under on the road (see previous capping posts), I'm leaning toward the under here. But since the total is 41, I doubt there's much value in it as a wager. 20-10 is more likely than 30-20, but even 24-21 would go over. Odds are we'll see a low to average-scoring game.

This means we will see good defense from both teams. There will be plenty of punts. Field position will be as important as it ever is. The defense can regard a red-zone field goal as a small but real victory. Turnovers will cause as much irreparable harm as they ever do. Little mistakes will be magnified. Small leads will be difficult to overcome. Etc. etc. The usual stuff.

Still brain dead

I can't think much. I am making an effort.

The Broncos will be a tougher opponent than the Colts were. I know that for sure. Or, I think I know that. Do I know that? Now I am drawing a blank on the Broncos. Now I keep seeing former Browns on the d-line. Now I recollect that they cheat better than the Colts.

The oddsmakers are no help. They play Solomon on this one, saying "Cut the baby right down the middle": I see visitor +3 and a 41 total, which is like saying "50 heads" in a 100-coin-flip contest. +3 and 41 translates into a 22-19 final score, which is as average as they get.

I have no feel for the next game now. I began to worry, Sunday, that the unfolding victory over the Colts might be a Pyrrhic one. Today I doubt we need to worry about the Steelers being emotionally empty or too physically beat up. Still, the Broncos had a much easier win. Their game was more about the Patriots self-destructing than it was about the Broncos forcing that self-destruction. Denver fans will disagree with me I'm sure.

Bones and I talked last week about who we'd rather play in the AFC Championship, the Patriots or the Broncos, and we agreed we'd rather head to Foxboro to avenge some more.

I also see some things about this game which bode ill for the Steelers. I have to get out the data and confirm these things. You guys have any thoughts on how to handicap this game? No one will be saying the Steelers have no chance to win straight up. But is that chance 50%? or 46%? The Steeler fan in me says yes, the handicapper in me leans no.

More later when my brain comes back on.

Something about a leg in the air

Michael Rosenberg, Detroit Free Press:

Now the top-seeded Colts are out of the NFL playoffs, unless the league decides the clock malfunctioned and the Colts get another few minutes to try to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers - which, the way things unfolded Sunday, is possible.

...

First, they won it when Troy Polamalu intercepted a Peyton Manning pass with 5 minutes, 26 seconds left, giving Pittsburgh the ball with a 21-10 lead.

But wait. After further review (and, I would guess, some sort of pharmaceutical overdose) referee Pete Morelli said the pass was incomplete.

Joe Posnanski, Kansas City Star:

Referee Pete Morelli, in a move that seemed to surprise even the hometown Colts fans, overturned the interception. His explanation was as baffling as the overturn - something about a leg being up in the air - and Manning quickly drove the Colts to the Pittsburgh 3.

Michael Lev, Orange County Reporter:

Polamalu dove in front of Manning's pass for tight end Bryan Fletcher, caught the ball, then dropped it while getting up and attempting to run. The officials ruled it an interception, which would have given the Steelers the ball with 5:26 left and a 21-10 lead. But Colts coach Tony Dungy challenged the play, and referee Pete Morelli overturned it. Indianapolis drove for a touchdown and made a two-point conversion to trim the deficit to three.

Morelli explained that Polamalu lost the ball with one of his legs "still on the ground. Therefore he did not complete the catch."

Judy Battista, New York Times:

On the Colts' next possession, they got what might have been a game-turning call by officials. It appeared that Polamalu had intercepted a Manning pass at midfield and had then fumbled the ball as he began to run with it.

But officials overturned the call, ruling that the pass was incomplete, even though it appeared Polamalu had taken several steps while in possession.

FWIW. What a crazy game.

Also, Roethlisberger is completely right here:

I think the smart play was to give Jerome the ball and I guarantee if we got the chance 100 times, we’d do it every time.

There's no second-guessing that handoff to Jerome.

Playoff: Steelers at Colts

Game on. Here is a thread for your predictions, comments, and postmortem analysis.

... Tunch and Wolfley note the microphone stands, there every twenty feet in the MNF game, are not on the field. And, coincidentally, the noise level before the game is noticeably lower. Maybe the Indy fans have yet to crank it up. We'll see if noise is the same factor it was previously.

... All hail Heath Miller.

... All hail Randle El! Rout is on.

... These play fakes will win Ben an Oscar. Touchdown!

... 2nd Q ... Three and out for the Colts. Manning not playing well. If he would get off his ass, maybe he could figure something out against this D. Time for more points ... seems like we have not scored in an eternity.

... Verron Haynes carries some Blue for a big third-down conversion. Steelers are smart to get everyone involved.

... Now a great special teams play. Make Manning drive the length of the field.

... This long drive - I'm looking for it - but I don't see it in the Rout Plan. Two-minute warning.

... Oh, here it is. Last page, under Red-Zone Defense: hold Colts to humiliation of chip shot field goal. 14-3 Steelers. Now let's get some points before the end of the half.

... Halftime. Oh, baby. The Colts will have the ball at the start of the second half.

... Nice stop to open the 2nd half. Script says boot, throat time.

... So that was more like a slow squeeze. Six minutes left in the 3Q. I wonder if Jerome is fueled up and ready to let the air out of this game on the Steelers' next possession. In the meantime, let's see if our DBs can't hang onto one of these passes for the pick.

... Wow nice near-safety there. Rowdy Jr. runs some victory laps. Slow down, little man. He doesn't know what's going on; he's sixteen months old. Steelers to take over at the Indy 30. I'd run it non-stop and kick the field goal.

... We're jamming to Bo Diddley's "Bring It To Jerome" for this first and goal commercial break.

... Ingenious fumble-fake! Raise their hopes and dash them. Time to Bring It On Home.

... We so nearly named our boy Jerome. If Rowdy was not such the great name ... maybe the next son can be Jerome. Steelers 21-3. Rout is on again.

... OK, what do we have, sixteen minutes to kill? Time for Steeler football at its best.

... Manning doubles down recklessly; they convert 4th and 2. Nice play. They will need more of that.

... 4th quarter. Oh shit. The 50-yard touchdown. 21-10.

... 4th and inches. Colts self-destruct with that jumping and pointing. No penalty? Bad enough when you have to play Manning, now we have to play the refs too? No matter, I hope.

... So he has it? WTF? The look on Manning's face.

... More 4th and inches. Bussie has it. No. They will measure. Bussie has it. All hail! Steelers are eating the clock, and, we hope, will punch this in five minutes from now.

... Tunch with the nice Wizard of Oz analogy. The witch has tipped the hourglass, the monkeys are flying, and the Colts can only panic.

... So they punt. Colts will have the ball, 11 points down, six minutes plus, at the 20. Steelers need a stop. The Colts can score in a hurry; the Steelers know this I'm sure.

... INTERCEPTION! FUMBLE! Recovered! Red flag coming out? Polamalu WTF? This could be the killer.

... The challenge goes ... just got another Summit Great Northern Porter ... it goes ... booth review must be holding out for larger bribes ... damn ... they give the ball back to the Colts. I was joking about those bribes until they actually overruled that INT call on the field. WTF?

... Touchdown, then they get two points. Now it's a three-point lead. Four plus minutes. It's on the offense. Damn these nailbiters.

... ALL HAIL JOEY PORTER! Oh the sack.

... Bettis fumbles! They recover and run that shit to midfield. Holy shit. The Colts are still alive. Holy Miracle at the Meadowlands.

... The FG ... I T ' S N O G O O D! I T ' S N O G O O D!

... Final score, Steelers more, Colts less. Game over. Hug your momma, hug your papa, kiss your wife, pat the little children on the head. And everyone run some victory laps.

... Well, that went just about exactly as I called it.

... P.S. We'll still name the next boy Jerome.

History of the No-Huddle Offense

Ed Bouchette has it.

All hail Reggie Rivers

Rivers, who played a little running back in the 90s and now writes novels about the mob fixing NFL games, is writing stuff about tomorrow's game that we want to read. Being too good in the regular season had the 15-1 Steelers a little tight in the 2005 playoffs. Hmmm. Here's hoping Rivers is right.

Rag Smash

Sounds like the name of a drink. I like how Ed Eagle calls Tracy's brainchild "sadistic." Wilbur, explain how that's advertising & not journalism.

This Jim Tracy is a piece of work.

"The environment was very loose, which is what I like to see, and yet within the framework of that looseness was a very businesslike approach."

It's quite a change from Joe Liggins. Pretty much all he did was cuss, right?

Capping the Steelers-Colts game, part 2

One thing going for the Steelers tomorrow is the fact that this is their second straight road game. Recently, all visitors, regardless of the spread, have won about 42% of all games. If you break that down into teams that are coming off a home game and teams that are coming off a road game, the team that has just hit the road wins about 41% and the team playing the second consecutive road game wins about 45% of all games.

Before you read on, keep in mind that all of this is alchemy and for entertainment purposes only. I don't wager real money on NFL games, mainly because you must win 60% or more to break even under the current tax laws.

In games where the home team is favored by three or more points, those numbers fall considerably for the visitor. Here the visitor wins about 27% of the time, with the visitor coming off a road game winning 31%.

Also favoring the Steelers here is the fact that visitors coming off a convincing win (SU and ATS) do better than visitors who only won, only covered, or lost miserably the previous week. To a lesser extent than baseball, football is a game of streaks. You can do OK by simply riding the hottest teams.

In games like tomorrow's case, with the visiting team coming off a road game in which they won SU and ATS, since 2002, the visitors won 13 of 38 games in which the home team was heavily favored. That's 34%, which is a robust winning chance for a heavy-underdog visitor.

So there are factors here that make me like the Steelers a lot ATS. (Visitors covered 25 of 38 in that same sample, or 66% of the time.) They are on the road again. And they just won convincingly, and thus can be fairly judged as on the rise. And I like the under, as I explained in the previous post.

I know the Steelers lost by 19 points in their last game, when their offensive line, quarterback, and running game were not close to full strength. The current line of about ten points measures public opinion more than it measures a scientific difference between the teams. In the Sagarin ratings, for example, the Steelers trail the Colts by three points overall and by only one point in "PREDICTOR," his best measure for forecasting games. Given the state of the Steelers the last time they played, and their improved health now, I'd say a more rational line would be in the four to six point range, which includes three points for home-field advantage.

I like the under and for sure I like the Steelers to cover that spread. Will they win the game outright? That's all that matters. I guess their chances to win straight up are better than most believe. I bet the number is 34% or more. Maybe 40%. As a Steeler fan, I've been on the wrong side of this kind of playoff game too often. It's not easy dominating all season long, then playing a home playoff game as a heavy favorite against an experienced and long-winning team. The Colts will have a struggle.

My gut says the game will play something like the Steelers-Patriots playoff game last year. The Steelers pounded the Patriots in the regular season, and then they got pounded in the playoffs. As the Sports Pickle reminds us in that satire (previous post), the Colts do not have a lot of positive playoff experience.

That said, it's more likely that a bunch of false start penalties and a porous third-down defense will give the game away. It's hard to see how the Steelers should be favored to win outright.

But the Steelers have more than a fair shot to shock the world and win this thing.

I'll go out on a limb and offer a prediction in which the Steelers win. Should they win, I see something like a 24-16 nailbiter in which they get a lead, sit on it, dominate the time of possession in the second half, and turn back a last-minute no-huddle drive for the tie.

Colts to start Tee Martin

There goes our chances to win this thing.

Colts have Steelers playbook

Gerry Dulac explains.

Walter Young DFA'd

Young is the ginormous guy the Pirates released a few years ago. Baltimore cut him to make room for Kevin Millar.

Craig Wilson signs

He'll make about 3.3 million, which is on the low side of what has been discussed as a probable arbitration number. Not that anyone knew what they were talking about when the $4M number was thrown about.

Pirates Minicamp

DK has been bringing mostly good news from Pirates mini-camp. On Thursday, he reported that Burnett and JVB are both throwing and looking good.

"I'm like a kid in a candy store," Van Benschoten said, smiling. "It's like a whole new beginning, a new arm, new everything."

Burnett's a little further ahead in his surgery recovery and conceivably could make the rotation this spring.

Yesterday, DK had the Kip Wells angle. Colborn is working on instilling mechanical consistency and mental positivity into Erratic Kip.

"I can tell you Jim Colborn has had success in getting results out of pitchers with a lot less talent than Kip Wells," Tracy said.

Tracy speaks the truth, as Colborn somehow got a 1.25 WHIP out of Jose Lima, who BTW, claimed that he's had negotiations with the Bucs.

More good news comes today, with Jose Castillo reporting fully recovered. Plus Ollie's "whistling fastball after fastball in free and easy fashion." However, Colborn "cast a more critical eye" and busted Ollie's chops over the mechanics.

"The more experience Oliver gets, the more he'll know when to get funky and when to go with his standard stuff," Colborn said. "If he wants to do a Luis Tiant twist, go sidearm, whatever, that's fine by me. I don't have a problem with how Oliver Perez pitches. It's entertaining to me. And you don't want to get in the way of a guy's style. But my job is to help him understand what's strong and what's weak about what he's doing."

If Kip and Ollie rebound, and Duke and Maholm continue to excel, the Bucs could break .500 this year, even with all the new gimpy vets.

Steelers reading

Ryan collects stuff for you. Scroll down below the shameless plugs and sci-fi geek out. (What is it with bloggers and sci-fi? I haven't geeked out on science fiction since I read Gibson's "Neuromancer" in Analog magazine in like 1984. Maybe I am missing something.)

OPS primer

You don't have to be shackled to a cubicle or worship the Boston book learning to appreciate the merits of OPS. Dan Fox for the Hardball Times offers this introduction to the stat & why it's useful.

The problem with OPS is that it overstates the value of low-OBP, high-SLG hitters. And it underestimates the value of high-OBP, low-SLG hitters. A player who hits .330 with a .390 OBP and a .460 SLG is more productive than a guy who gets his 850 OPS by hitting .260 with a .320 OBP and a .530 SLG. For that reason, BRA (mentioned in the article) is a better measure of overall run-making value.

The problem with BRA is you can't talk about it or calculate it in your head. There, .190 or .200 is the line between OK and really good. That will never make sense as a TV graphic. OPS does, and we'll continue to see it spreading through the mainstream.

See the Ballgame with Google Earth

Zoom in on PNC Park and you see a game in progress. Looks like the late innings of a Pirates day game and, from the size of the crowd, I'd guess the Pirates are getting clobbered. There's a man on first and a right-handed hitter at the plate.

Heinz Field looks worn and still shows the paint from a Pitt game.

Google Earth is finally available for Macs, which is why I'm just now using it. Go get it. I don't have the link handy, but I'm sure you could, uh, google it.

...Looking at the other stadiums, I find people in Citizens' Bank in Philadelphia. Looks like four or five guys standing around home plate. Game also in progress in Yankee Stadium. Curiously, Petco is not even built yet in Google's satellite photo.

Sure sign of spring

You know the baseball season is close when the Bradenton paper starts reporting on the Pirates.

Cincinnati hearts Sean Casey

Wow.

If the Pirates keep him healthy and do not play him while hurt, as the Reds obviously did, they should get good performance from Casey at the plate. We'd rather see 450 quality plate appearances than 600 mediocre-to-poor ones. And if Casey can perform as well at the plate as a first baseman must, then of course the Pirates should sign him for 2007 and beyond.

Capping the Steelers-Colts game, part 1

The over/under is 47. In the average game, the teams combine for about 40-42 points. This big spread, medium-to-high over/under is typical for Colts home games this season. Unlike the Dome Rams of a few years ago, the Dome Colts have not had consistently enormous over/unders out of respect for their defense. They have not been predicted to win shootouts but to win blowouts.

In 2005, the Colts hosted four bad teams. The schlubs were Cleveland (the line was visitor +13.5, over/under 46.5), St. Louis (+13.5, 46.5), Houston (+17.5, 44.5), and Tennessee (+15.5, 50.5). (I am throwing out week 17.) We don't see many games with medium totals (44.5) and huge spreads (17.5) since they forecast scores like 31-13. That's a ballsy prediction. Anyone bettor who believes in parity or even the "any given Sunday" proverb should be all over those unlikely predictions. The Colts went 4-0 against those lousy teams, covered 2 of 4, and went over 2 of 4.

But so what; those were Homecoming games for Tony Dungy's team.

The Colts faced three quality opponents at home. They were Pittsburgh (+8.5, 45.5), Jacksonville (+8.5, 45.5), and San Diego (+7.5, 51.5). The Colts won two of three. They covered only once, and all three games went under.

So even when the Colts were firing on all cylinders, they were generally overrated as scoring machines. Even when they won and stifled the opponent's offense, they failed to score enough to drive the total over.

The Steelers covered six of eight on the road, and they were favored in all but two. In only one road game they failed to cover (the Indy game). The Steelers went under in every one of their road games, except the San Diego game, which went over by two points. The under must be a good bet when you like the Steelers to win. Knowing how they like to win games, it makes sense.

So without even capping the Steelers' chance of winning this straight up, I am liking the under. It makes sense. The Steelers D has been very good on the road, and the Colts' offense has been overrated at home.

I don't expect a high-scoring game. My guess is that there's maybe a sixty percent chance the score is at or below the 23-21, 21-17, 24-17 range.

In the next installment, I'll look more at winning and losing.

Matos rumor

Are you sitting down? This one, from Beaver County Times beat writer & Baseball America writer John Perrotto, is a real doozy:

The Pirates have talked to Baltimore about possibly trading for outfielder Luis Matos as insurance in case Chris Duffy, who hit .341 in 39 games as a rookie last season, isn't ready to be the everyday center fielder. Matos, 27, hit .280 with four homers, 32 RBIs and 17 steals in 121 games for the Orioles last season.

Seriously, I don't know what would be the price of Matos. I know two things, however. First, we need a lot of centerfielders with that big left field. Second, this is probably about Burnitz's ability to play center. If he's not a legitimate option out there for a few days, then we need a fifth outfielder. It would not be wise to use Nate McLouth as a fifth outfielder if the team hopes he might some day be used as a regular starter. It would probably be better for his development to play every day at AAA.

People say that all the time; I'm not sure it's true. I would probably rather be a bench player studying big-league pitchers and making notes for flash cards I would study in the hotel room. Others seem to think you need to keep hitting something every day if you are going to continue to improve as a hitter. My hunch is the Pirates would rather not carry McLouth, who they regard as a prospect, as a fifth outfielder.

Coach Noll

Just heard that my eight-year-old brother fought with his older brothers and my father about the name of the Steelers' coach this past Sunday. He insisted it was "Coach Noll." It took some work to persuade him otherwise.

More evidence that Steelerism is an inherited trait and not a learned behavior. How else would the eight-year-old manifest that atavism?

Pitching depth

One annual story we get to follow is, "Who will grab the fifth starter's job?" This one bores me since most every team uses eight to ten starters over the course of a season. A run through the yearly stats shows the Pirates have been giving five or more starts to eight or nine guys. Six or more will get ten starts.

The Pirates have lined up, in no particular order, Zach Duke, Oliver Perez, Paul Maholm, and Kip Wells. They'll have the first crack at twenty-five starts. Only two to four will manage that many.

Just as no four players will combine to produce the 2800 plate appearances the team will enjoy at 1B, RF, CF, and LF, so will no four pitchers combine for anything even close to 162 starts.

Even March rotations comprised of "proven veteran" starters rarely produce more than two to four twenty-five game starters. So it's no knock on our top four to speculate that more than half the 2006 games will be started, in all likelihood, by other pitchers.

The competition for the fifth starter's job will tell us a lot about April, but maybe not so much about August and September. No one shed any tears if your boy loses out on the fifth starter's job. If he's any good at pitching, the odds are good that he'll still have plenty of opportunities to become a mainstay in the rotation.

People are talking about Jeff Weaver. Since the Pirates have (in no particular order) Ryan Vogelsong, Ian Snell, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Tom Gorzelanny,and Victor Santos worth a look, and even perhaps Bryan Bullington and Brandon Duckworth, they are pretty stocked. All of these guys are unproven, but so is the rotation. The Pirates can line them up, let them take turns, and reward the ones who pitch well with more turns in the rotation. We didn't add Manny Ramirez in the offseason. We're still relying heavily on unproven position players. I don't see much need for "proven starters."

Four more years

As he ran off the field through a tunnel ringed by delirious Steelers fans, Bettis was serenaded with chants of "Four more years, four more years" -- a plea to the 13-year running back not to retire at the end of the season.

That from Gerry Dulac's report on the Steelers win.

Can you imagine what Bettis would look like four years from now, in uniform for the 2009 season?

He'd look great. They should expand the NFL rosters by one or two spots. With strict restriction--every team has to use them for geezers.

The Catchers

Ed Eagle's take:

The plan heading into Spring Training is for Doumit and Cota to split time. However, the team's brain trust would probably love to see Doumit emerge as the everyday catcher.

Cota showed last season that he could be a serviceable big-league starter. He improved his defense and game calling, and he came through with more than his fair share of clutch hits. But Doumit has a higher ceiling because of his potential to be an offensive threat from both sides of the plate. If he can turn that potential into production, Doumit will get the majority of starts behind the plate.

So what about Ronny Paulino? Will he wait for a Cota trade? Theoretically, you'd hope the team would do better than carry three catchers.

All hail the Bengals

Seriously, hats off to those guys for turning things around and playing like a serious football team. If my team went twelve, thirteen, or fourteen years without a winning season, I don't know what I'd be doing as a fan. I'm sure I'd be all sad.

Thank God that's never happened with one of my teams. But for the grace of God, however ....

Murray Chass on the Burnitz signing

As Keano suggested in the comments, we might all want a look at this article by Murray Chass on the Burnitz signing. He did not take and fail a physical, as Gammons and others suggested.

Who dey?

Who dey that think they can beat the Bengals?

Wild-card Sunday

Big game in Kentucky. I've got the red beans on the stove and the porter in the fridge, and I'm thinking about frying some chicken.

Anything could happen today. All the pre-game coverage has done the Bengals a favor. They arrive with more to gain and less to lose. All the talk about Roethlisberger drowning in the 2005 playoffs, for example, has considerably lowered the bar for Carson Palmer. He'll have a good game, I expect.

That said, I would not want to play the Steelers right now.

Blue Jays covet Craiggers

Geoff Baker reporting for the Toronto Star:

"We've always liked him, but I don't know what his availability is," Ricciardi said.

The Pirates have said they're going to hold on to Wilson, but that sounds like posturing by the budget-conscious team. Ricciardi said he'd only do a "one-for-one" trade for Wilson, meaning a current major leaguer or a better minor-league prospect, but no more packages like he did in the Lyle Overbay trade with Milwaukee.

The more I think on it, the more I like the Burnitz signing if the Pirates keep Craig Wilson. Odds are, he will see plenty of playing time. I don't buy the argument that the Burnitz signing eats significantly into his play. He won't start on Opening Day, sure. But he'll see plenty of action. And if one of the middle-of-the-order guys goes down with an injury, he can step in. If the rookie centerfielders flop, he can play right and Burnitz can play center. If everyone stays healthy and productive, the Pirates might enjoy a pretty good season. And Craig Wilson will make a much bigger difference as a pinch-hitter than Noonie or Bobby Hill.

They need to keep this guy if they are serious about being a better ballclub in 2006. They've told us repeatedly that money is not an issue. They can prove this is more than posturing. If I ran the circus, that's what I would do. And I would enjoy doing it.

Wild-card Saturday

Washington is crushing Tampa Bay. In the more interesting game, J'ville and New England go at it later. I expect J'ville will play well, keep it close, and lose on a last-minute Vinateri field goal.

Indictments for contractors who built PNC Park

Indictments against Capco for their "work" at PNC Park? I am rubbing my eyes and blinking. That's Joe Mandak reporting for the AP.

Irrational exuberance

Who is this Susan Kelly, writing nice things about the Pirates?

Pirates don't want to win

Puh-leaze. Pat of Andy Van Slyke found The Onion commenting on the Pirates' recent acquisitions. Ha ha, very funny.

Pat also has a series of posts on the "evil genius" of David Littlefield here. This is a familiar argument; we've heard it before.

It doesn't mesh with my generous yet low opinion of human nature, however. I can't be persuaded that the GM and the owners don't want to win. I can be persuaded that they don't know how to win, but the argument that they are just milking the club for millions and laughing their asses off from some yacht in Florida, that doesn't jibe with my understanding of baseball people. Feel free to disagree; it's a free country.

And as for the argument that they are playing like the first half of 2006 is all that matters, to that I say Amen. Of course the first half of the season is all that matters. Any team that's out of contention at the All-Star break only plays mainly meaningless exhibition games the rest of the way. What fan wants to pay to see that?

I don't know how to do the math to support this, but this is why, for example, I don't put much stock in Freddy Sanchez's hot September. It was September, and the Pirates were cruising to 60-some wins. Nice homestand against Eric Milton, Luke Hudson, Matt Belisle, and the rest of the fifth-place Reds. He stunk at the plate the rest of the year. Sure, more recent performance should weigh heavier in projections of future performance. At the same time, however, there's no denying that there are varying levels of play. As much as the teams advertise that they play hard all year long, no matter what, common sense and personal experience prove that's bluster.

This is also why I was so pissed at Lloyd McClendon for not managing the 2004 opening series like it was a playoff series. And at Craig Wilson for his miserable April.

As the Pirates fall out of contention, I can not help thinking that it gets easier for most of them, as individuals, to produce good-looking statistics--if they have the will to do this in an atmosphere of loss and resignation. If it's easier for players on winning teams to stay motivated, they certainly do not face the same quality of opponent as teams renowned for incompetence. The Cardinals, who went 12-4 against the Pirates last year, will come to town and not play Jim Edmonds, saving him for their next series, against the Cubs or the Astros. When the Pirates go to New York and Boston, those teams don't juggle their rotations so that their aces pitch more often than their fifth starters. The statistics generated by all players do not have the same predictive value. Everything could be adjusted or translated for winning percentage. If Roy Oswalt mows down a Spring Training lineup in late September, that's not the same indicator of greatness as Roy Oswalt mowing down a 98-win lineup in October.

April is October for this club. So hell yeah, manage the team like the first half is all that counts. I'd go farther and manage the team like April is all that counts. Don't give us the "it's a long season" bullshit like McClendon did in response to our anger last April.

The only argument against playing to win now is that the Pirates might win more later if they deliberately lose now. And this, I've come to think, this "losing to win" strategy, is just bullshit. Nine out of ten "rebuilding" programs fail.

The team - all teams - should play to win every year. If the season devolves into several months of largely meaningless exhibitions, then we can talk about regarding the season as so many auditions and learning experiences - if anyone is around to listen.

Steelers healthy

Good news: "We are about as healthy as we have been all year going into the game," coach Bill Cowher said.

Cincinnati fans

The economy must be pretty hard down there:

A Pittsburgh ticket broker told the Cincinnati Enquirer yesterday he's getting many calls from Bengals fans trying to sell their tickets.

"If the game was in Pittsburgh, you couldn't pry a ticket out of a fan's hands," broker Robert Mancuso said. "In Cincinnati, if you put $100 in front of them, they'll take it."

Joe Rutter reports here. So, who wants it more?

On Cowher

Ryan has stuff to say.

I don't take regular-season wins for granted. I like his record very much. Playoff losses suck because they gnaw at you the entire offseason. Still, there's only one team each year that ends the season with a win. I don't want to lose Cowher.

World of Burnitz

Dejan Kovacevic reports.

"That's crazy that they came after me two years in a row," [Burnitz] said.

It gets better:

He explained he chose the Pirates because they play 12 games in or near southern California compared to Baltimore's three.

I'd say that too, if my wife was on the couch next to me. I'd lay it on thicker.

And finally, some sense from Littlefield:

He also said he does not intend to trade Craig Wilson, even though Burnitz and Casey will start in right field and first base, Wilson's two positions, and even though Wilson could make $4 million or more next season.

"Whether it's media or fans, everybody has to realize that, if we are going to get better, part of it is having better backups," Littlefield said. "Through ownership, we've been able to increase payroll, so you're going to have the opportunity to have quality backups. Craig brings things that we need. He has power, gets on base and has versatility in the field. To me, that piece makes a lot of sense for us."

Hell yeah, keep that mo'fo Craig Wilson. Don't make Sean Casey play when he's gimpy, like they did in Cincinnati. Expect Burnitz to miss time--he's an OLD MAN. And don't fear the jumbo outfield of Bay, Burnitz, and Wilson.

What are the odds

I guess the Steelers have an 8% chance of winning three road games and reaching the Super Bowl. Which is better, I think, than the Bengals' chances.

Go time

Steeler fans, if you're not reading Ryan's stuff at Heels, Sox, and Steelers, you should be.

I'll never quite understand the whole "Sox" thing, but the Steelers stuff is good reading.

The Pirates moving from KDKA?

Bob Smizik reports that KDKA might lose the Pirates to rival Clear Channel. The Pirates want to reach a younger audience. I wonder this might coincide with some kind of shake-up of the broadcast crew.

Craig Wilson for trade

John Perrotto, today:

While the Pirates still have enough room to fit first baseman/outfielder Craig Wilson into their expanded payroll that is rising from $32 million to $49 million this year, they figure to intensify their efforts to trade him.

Wilson made $3 million last season when he was limited to 59 games because of hand injuries. As a arbitration-eligible player, he figures to get at least a slight raise despite getting only 197 at bats and hitting .264 with five homers and 22 RBIs.

Colorado and Toronto have been mentioned as possible destinations for Wilson, though Cleveland's interest appears to have waned now that the Indians have struck a tentative deal with free-agent first baseman Eduardo Perez.

Dejan Kovacevic, this morning:

Burnitz's acquisition and the trade for first baseman Sean Casey appear to bump Craig Wilson out of the Pirates' plans. Wilson, 29, plays first and right field, and he is unlikely to be retained as a bench player with a salary in the range of $4 million, which is what he is expected to receive this month.

"I really don't know what their plan is," Wilson said last night from his home in California. "I'm hoping to be part of it somewhere."

Wilson is coming off a season in which two injuries to his left hand limited him to 59 games. The Pirates have made known their desire to trade him but are believed to have had difficulty generating interest because of his injuries.

The Pirates should hold onto Craig Wilson. He's an expensive insurance policy and back-up player, but with this cast of starters, he figures to see plenty of playing time. Plus, if the rest of the league is not sold on the strength of his grip, they should only trade him now, while his stock is low, if they too doubt he can impress anyone in the first half of 2006.

Q & A: Burnitz vs. Craig Wilson

The Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic explains the Burnitz signing. He reports that no one, especially the Pirates, has much confidence in Craig Wilson:

Chris Duffy will start in center and, unless he implodes in spring training, is going to bat leadoff. That will make for an outfield of Bay, Duffy and Burnitz.

What will happen to Wilson is that he will continue to be shopped for a trade but, as I wrote in the newspaper for today, that does not mean there is a willing partner. Hand injuries tend to be very scary for teams looking into making commitments for hitters (Pat Meares, anyone?), and I have heard that the interest in Wilson has been minimal.

Wilson's a free agent at the end of 2006. If he comes back from those injuries, the Pirates will trade him for sure.

Go Lions

Something about a game tonight.

Pirates to sign Jeromy Burnitz

So Preston Wilson is not the only CF-capable slugger still out there. Dejan Kovacevic and John Perrotto both report that Burnitz is the word. This Thursday, December 29 entry (scroll down) in Dan Szymborski's Transaction Oracle had me thinking Burnitz was signed with Baltimore.

As Szymborski notes so elegantly, Burnitz's career appears to be trending downward. As in, downward to an end, a stop, a cessation of effective plate appearing. He'll be 37 in 2006 and 38 in 2007. Projections are not kind for players at this age. Going into 2005, he was projected by Perrotto fave, Bill James, to hit .246 / .327 / .477 with 27 doubles and 31 homers in Colorado. James's book ranked Burnitz's injury risk as "high." Nate Silver projected .251 / .328 / .480 with 19 doubles and 22 home runs. If you think those projections were bad, wait to you see the ones for 2006. If you clicked on that last link, you've already seen Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projection.

Last year, Burnitz finished at .258 / .322 / .435 with 31 homers and 24 homers for Chicago. He outperformed the 2005 projections for the first half of the season, but he limped home, hitting only .237 / .300 / .387 in 2005's second half. I wish there was some evidence of an injury; then I could spin it Sean Casey-style. Instead it looks like he got old and feeble-sticked.

He's streaky, he strikes out a lot. He's Craig Wilson without the high-HBP on-base percentage. He hits for power. Like all teams, we need more of that. Assuming Craig Wilson has or will recover from the hand injuries of 2005, he will probably outhit Burnitz in 2006.

If you've done your your Pirates Sudoku, you know we need more PA in the outfield. A Burnitz signing would not influence Craig Wilson's final PA numbers so much as it limits the PA that appear to immediately fall to Nate McLouth. Right now I'm guessing that Burnitz and Craig Wilson both stand to see something in the 400-450 PA range. Burnitz would not replace Craig Wilson so much as he'd double the at-bats we can expect from a Craig Wilson-like hitter. That is a good thing--if Burnitz can hit that well at 37.

The fear with Burnitz is the projection, and the problem with the projection is the age. Nate Silver has his comparable players as Fred Lynn, Dave Henderson, Bill Nicholson, Hubie Brooks, Dale Long, Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Donn Clendenon, Dale Murphy, Tino Martinez, Tony Perez, Ron Gant, George Foster, Graig Nettles, Doug DeCinces, Kirk Gibson, Joe Carter, Deron Johnson, Ben Oglivie, and Charlie Maxwell. Baseball-Reference sees Jay Buhner, Darryl Strawberry, Ron Gant, Reggie Sanders, David Justice, Bill Nicholson, Eric Davis, Frank Thomas, Ray Lankford, and Roy Sievers. That's good company, for sure, but we're only looking at the end of these careers. Of this group, the players who were still good at age 37 and 38 are modern ones. Reggie Sanders can still hit, but he managed only 350 PA last year, his 37 season. For the D'backs, Steve Finley had two full and solid seasons at 37 and 38. Ellis Burks, long-time Bones and Rowdy favorite, mashed at 37 for the 2002 Indians. A generation or so back, the great Tony Perez's 37 and 38 seasons looked much like Burnitz's 36 season. Graig Nettles remained league-average for his 37 and 38 seasons. Freddy Lynn managed 400 mediocre PA at age 37. The rest of the players on the list were done at 37.

Is Burnitz done? I don't know. That second half was not good. I suppose that, with their high salaries and advanced medical crap, today's players may age more gracefully than those of previous generations. I'm not sure I believe this, however; such arguments sound, to me, like naive progressivism. Maybe it's true. Maybe not. Either way, general trends in player aging will do very little to determine just how Jeromy Burnitz ages.

Burnitz or no Burnitz, the Pirates need an outfielder, someone who could conceivably play some CF. He may be the best available option. Until we see what rate and length Preston Wilson gets in his next contract, it will be difficult to know if Burnitz at two years and twelve million is a good idea. I would have traded Oliver Perez by now, but Littlefield wants to hold onto him another year. If we won't trade a player to get a player, we have to sign one of the available sluggers.

If Burnitz is healthy after the ASB, maybe the Pirates could trade him. I dunno. My guess is that Burnitz will be fine for the first half of 2005. At any moment, however, the earth could split and swallow him up. We could say that about all the players, sure. But Burnitz is not young enough to expect any quick or full recovery from whatever might be his next injury. Won't Burnitz take one year and eight million? I'd rather do that than have him on the books for six million in 2007.

Preston Wilson

John Perrotto talking sense.

Bill James 2006 predictions

John Perrotto writes them down.

Bell's Porter

I'm having this to celebrate the finer things of the new year.

This is good. You have to decant it, which I like, considering that we don't brook cant here at Honest Wagner. A beer shouldn't come with cant in the first place, of course. But this way I know for sure there's no cant about it.

As Ms. Rowdy might say, it has a certain je ne sais yum. About 6%.

Sammy Sosa and Craig Wilson

Unless Trib writer Rob Rossi moonlights for a Spanish-language paper, it looks like the Tribune-Review will report in a few hours that the Pirates are interested in Slammin' Sammy Sosa. This from a rumor site from Bleed Cubbie Blue, who drool a little at the thought that the Cubs could acquire Craig Wilson.

The Bucs should definitely take a flyer on some one or two of Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, and/or Richard Hidalgo, if they come at the right price.

But I still think the need is not for a Craig Wilson replacement, but for an upgrade in the outfield who could play right and quietly back up Sam and Frodo (KPatrick's phrase), two guys about who management won't say a bad thing. That's my theory, and it's based on the fact that the other two guys they tried to get - Encarnacion and Byrnes - can play center if needed.

Jason Bay is not a centerfield backup since LF is another CF in PNC Park. Craig Wilson can't play centerfield, but him we need to back up Sean Casey. And him we need for his offense. Like Rob Mackowiak last year, Craig Wilson will get plenty of playing time even if the Pirates sign Preston Wilson, the guy they really ought to get, I think. So I doubt Craig's going anywhere.

Week 17: Lions at Steelers

With the Broncos victory today, the Steelers need a win or a Chiefs loss to make the playoffs.

All hail the Bus, who will likely play his final home game.

I can't picture this game being close. Look for the porous Lions D to give up the run, and the porous Lions OL to introduce Joey to Joey. Steelers 45, Lions 0.

Clemente's son to re-enact trip

AP story now making the rounds. Wow and good luck.

Happy New Year's Eve everyone.

Pittsburgh's print media: a handy guide for newbies

I'm touring the blogs tonight, catching up all around, and I find this comical series of posts (click the links) by Jay Jaffe. The subject? His experience with the PG's Gene Collier, who calls Jaffe a "seamhead on crystal math." (Would such analysis soothe some meth addicts? I wonder.)

I'm amused that these guys can't get along, and I feel bad for Jaffe, who, in a perfect world, would have known better than to have expected better treatment from Collier.

Here's a tip for non-Pirate fans everywhere: stay away from the PG sports editorials. At the PG, read Dejan Kovacevic and Brian O'Neill. Their other beat writers are OK too, as are the beat writers at the Trib. And seek out John Perrotto's work at the Beaver County Times.

And for the record, I'm not choosing sides in the Collier-Jaffe debate. Why? I don't care much who's in and who's out of the Hall of Fame.

The mind skips

Mark Donohue reviews the bottom feeders of baseball in this piece for Baseball Toaster. I was shocked to read that "somehow the mind skips over the Pirates when you think of the worst teams in baseball." Clearly Mark is not living in the eastern time zone.

Pirates Sudoku

Make your own depth chart with this offseason game.

The Pirates, as a team, will make about 6050 PAs in 2006. Pitchers account for 300 of those, leaving 5750 for the position players. In 2005, the actual number was 5735; in 2004, 5743.

Study these pages. You will see, over the years, how few players manage 500 PAs. How many slide in around 350 PA. And, if you Diddle with the "select split" drop-down menu, you can see how each of the various positions accounts for 650-700 PAs.

In an Excel spreadsheet, measure the current 40-man roster. Put the players in the first column. Each position then gets its own column. Spread the PT across each row. Total it for players at the end of each row. Total for positions at the top of each column.

The goals are two-fold: do not allot an unrealistic amount of PT to any one player. And allot roughly the same amount of PT to each position.

Based on recent years, I suggest these totals for each position: c, 650; 1b, 700; 2b, 650; SS, 675; 3b, 675; lf, 700; cf, 700; rf, 700; misc (DH+PH), 300. You can adjust the numbers a bit, so long as the final total is 5750. If you're convinced the shortstop will bat eighth all year, you might adjust that number to 650 and add PT for C or 2b.

Like all projection systems, this one will produce results that look half-right, half-silly in the mid-season. But it also serves to give you a good idea of how much the team will rely on certain utility players. When I did this last year, for example, I was able to correctly predict that, though he was not an opening-day starter, Rob Mackowiak would have no problem getting 500 PAs on that team.

Back when I had tons of free time, I used to do this for all the teams as a way of finding roto sleepers. Have fun. I have my grid filled out, but it needs more thought I think. I'll publish my answers sometime next week.

Preston Wilson and Craig Wilson

To follow-up on a thoughtful comment charlie left in the comments to the previous post, I agree the Pirates need better OF depth at AAA.

My strategy right now would be to view Duffy and McLouth as the centerfielders of the future. I pick one - Duffy I suppose - and start him in Pittsburgh. I send the other to AAA to start every day and wait for the gimp-phone to ring. If Casey goes down and Wilson is needed at first, if Gerut can't go, if Duffy can't hit or maims himself crashing into a wall, etc., McLouth would be the guy to get the call. I'd move him right into an every day job.

This means the Pirates need someone who can play centerfield. The obvious answer, looking at the guys left on the market, is Preston Wilson. If the Bucs can sign him to a high-paying one-year gig, then they plug him in right field. Craig Wilson will play when Casey has an ache. Or, in the somewhat likely scenario that Duffy's first season as the starting centerfielder begins to resemble Tike Redman's first season as the same, then Preston slides into center and Wilson starts in right. Or, in the equally likely scenario that Preston gimps his knee sliding into second, then Craig takes over job and McLouth comes up to ride the pine.

One other thing. I wrote this in the comments, but not everyone reads them, so I will write it again. It regards the curiously sensitive subject of Craig Wilson.

Here it is: I do not believe everything I read in the papers. Just because management whispers disparaging remarks to folks who, they know, will print them, that does not mean they believe such things. The Pirates are taking Craig Wilson to arbitration, so there's no point in them singing his praises. And while they have good reason to be concerned about the rookies slated for CF next year, it makes sense to me that they would also have good reason not to express any shaky confidence about the young guys to the newspaper. Why be honest and tell the Trib that you are worried about Duffy's ability to hit major-league pitching, and thus want a plan B for CF (Encarnacion, Byrnes)? Why not blame the need for another OF on Craig Wilson? He's a good sport, and he's used to such abuse. He's been taking it for years. Why change that story when it's still handy? And, further, if the management can promote the notion that he's underappreciated in Pittsburgh, well that would seem, to me, to increase his profile as someone a team would do well to go get in trade. That's just so much more honey for catching flies. Any time someone is suckered into thinking he's just made a great deal, there has to be some kind of narrative that makes it seem plausible.

Just because some source said the Pirates would love to have Eric Byrnes and start him ahead of Craig Wilson, that does not mean - especially the night before another team signs him - that this was true. The last two and a half years, Craig Wilson has started every game and hit in the middle of the lineup when healthy. And all the while someone has been feeding the beat reporters disparaging quotes. Actions speak louder than words here.

We have to remember that GMs are part politicians, part poker players, and part used-car salesmen. Why should we take everything Littlefield says, or everything his assistants leak, at face value?

The Pirates need another outfielder, as I argued in the previous post, and if they want to blame that need on Craig Wilson, fine. It does not change the fact that they need another outfielder.

Right field

I understand the need to add a corner outfielder, and I'm not sure it's because upgrading that position will make the Pirates wild-card contenders.

The Pirates currently have a collection of unproven and unreliable players for center and right. Even if we love Craig Wilson and think the world of his ability as a hitter, it would not be prudent to expect more than 450 PAs from him. He has that injury thing. If we are going to say that about Sean Casey, it has to be said about Craig Wilson. I don't know much about his recent hand injuries, either. Are they Pat Mearesish? I don't know. Let's guess that he's fine, but likely to miss time with a back problem or another HBP dent, as usual. Or likely to slump very hard and need days off. So then a bright yet prudent forecast for Craiggers production is 450 PAs.

The Pirates will get about 2100 PAs from their outfielders in 2006 - about 700 per position. Jason Bay will soak up 650 in left. Center appears to be manned by Chris Duffy and Nate Dykstra McLouth. What are they good for? I hesitate to expect more than 500 PAs from any player who has never finished a 500 PA big-league season. If we guess they both will hit well enough to earn 450 PAs, which seems very sunny and not prudent to me, then with Bay the Pirates have (650+900) or 1550 PAs budgeted.

Sean Casey looks good for 550 PAs at first. The Bucs will need an additional 150 from other guys. Let's continue with the positive vibrations and assume that Eldred continues to press for big-league PT. Give him 100, a one-month cup of Joe or two fill-in appearances the length of a short DL trip. Give Craig Wilson the other 50.

So Craig Wilson would have about 400 PAs worth of a productive Craigger season in right field. With the 1550 portioned to Bay and the two centerfielding youngsters, the Pirates now have 1950 PAs. That gives the Pirates 150 more for . . .

Jody Gerut. Given his injury troubles and nasty platoon splits, I think it would be too optimistic to forecast more than 250 PAs for him in 2005.

Now the outfield looks full up, until we remember that the Pirates will need a DH (about 25 PA) and many PH appearances (about 250 PA). Doumit can soak up some pinch-hitting duties, and Freddy Sanchez can play the Bobby Hill/Noonie role. So right now the Pirates do not urgently need outfielders off the bench; having a surplus of 100 is probably OK from that perspective.

But, unless the Pirates add an outfielder capable of contributing 450 quality PAs, they are banking on (a) Craig Wilson being healthy and productive, (b) Chris Duffy staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, (c) Nate McLouth staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, and (d) Jody Gerut being useful off the bench.

Is that prudent? Is it wise? Chris Duffy finished last year strong. Tike Redman was also coming off a strong second half when he began his first season as the starting centerfielder. Remember Tony Alvarez? J.J. Davis? Are we so sure that Duffy and McLouth are more sure to succeed?

Should the Pirates lose any one of those four players, or should any one of those four players flop, who do we have in the minors worth the call? Are we as high on Rajai Davis as we are on Jose Bautista?

The Pirates need to add someone worth throwing into the OF mix. Then let the players compete for playing time, and play the best ones. Since they want to see what they got in Duffy and McLouth, and since they don't want to prevent Wilson or Gerut from contributing if and when he's able, the need looks, to me, to be more about finding someone who fits. They don't need to find a Joe Randa of right field.

The right-field situation is not so much about Craig Wilson and the Pirates' faith in his ability to be healthy and hit ball hard. I've grown tired of seeing the issue framed that way exclusively. The spokespeople for the team may be more comfortable singling him out or whatever, but this is not just about Craig Wilson. It's also about Duffy, McLouth, Gerut, Rajai Davis, and the odds that the Pirates have 1200 quality plate appearances - that's two full-time players - in that group.

Now catching

Nice hometown look at Ryan Doumit.

Before we criticize the Pirates for bringing in Randa and Casey and not "seeing what we got" in Sanchez and Eldred, remember that the Pirates will be "seeing what we got" at catcher and centerfield. And second base ... Jose Castillo has yet to complete a 450 PA season. And at closer, and in three-fifths of the starting rotation jobs. There will be plenty of youth served.

I like the Randa signing. One year is fine. We need Sanchez to back up Castillo and Wilson and now, Randa, who is not going to play all 162 games. And if Bautista is ready at the deadline, the Pirates can easily move Joe and get good prospects for him, too, just as the Reds did a few months ago.

The Pirates did not acquire the bat we need to make a big step forward, but going into 2005 we have some good lottery tickets. Ryan Doumit, a 25-year-old switch-hitter who raked in the minors, is one of them. The immediate future of the team will continue to rest on the immediate improvement of the youngest players.

Return of the Joker

Randa signs for one year and four million dollars. Huh. Will Randa hit second in front of Bay and Manny? On off days at home (while being spelled by Eldred and Freddie), shouldn't Casey and Randa work the crowd, shaking hands, handing out cheap baseball cards and wiffle balls, while being all-around nice guys?

Nate McLouth

How has he looked in winter ball? And, what do you all expect of him for 2006?

Little fans

Dejan Kovacevic talks some stuff over in this week's Q&A.

He also asks how we can interest the children in the Pirates. I've found baseball to be a pretty good hobby, so I share his selfless desire to raise our kids just exactly the way I was raised. Here are some suggestions that look beyond the most obvious solutions (WIN MORE GAMES, play more day games, hang the jolly roger in their bedroom, etc.)

1. Unsupervised play. When I was tot, all neighborhood children were unleashed and expelled from the home for several hours in the morning (before lunch) and many hours in the afternoon. Like Kovacevic, I also pretended to be Bruce Kison when I played wiffle ball. Children won't embarrass themselves so readily in front of adults. No one did this kind of role-playing in gym class. Nevermind that it's now a misdemeanor or felony offense to not supervise your children while they play wiffle ball in Drunk Joe's unused backyard. No child can properly learn the game of baseball without a heavy dose of freedom.

2. Cheap baseball cards. Around the late '80s, baseball cards lost most of their value for fan training. People started to regard them as investments, and card companies outdid one another making more and more expensive cards.

Fans raised on the baseball cards of the 1970s derived much greater value from them. They were not investments; they were toys. They were not cherished or encased in plastic; they were used and improved with magic marker. If I got mad at Greg Luzinski, I drew a funny moustache on him and felt good about it. Cards of my youth were not art-objects; they were flash cards. It's how I learned the names, faces, positions, and histories of all the players.

MLB should sponsor and distribute cheap cards to the children. They should be 25 cents a pack, and they should contain at least twelve cards. The Pirates should give away team sets to all fans under 16.

3. Better baseball toys. Too many of the promotional giveaways fall into the art-object / investment category. The Jack Wilson jack-in-the-box idea was brilliant. Future kid-oriented promotional freebies should also target the way children of various ages play. The Pirates should give away wiffle balls. And posable action figures would be a great improvement over bobbleheads.

Playoff picture

Looks like the Steelers, unless they self-destruct in the Motor City at home, will be headed for Cincinnati in week one of the playoffs.

If the Chargers beat the Denver Broncos Saturday in San Diego, it will clinch the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC for the Steelers, who play the Lions at Heinz Field. If Denver wins, the Steelers would have to beat or tie the Lions, or the Chiefs would have to lose or tie the Cincinnati Bengals in Kansas City Sunday.

...

If the Steelers make the playoffs, their first game will come in Cincinnati unless the Bengals lose and the Patriots win.

Ed Bouchette reporting here.

One for the drinking room

Too good.

One of these days, years and years from now, when I'm like 85, and the Browns have been whipping the Steelers on a regular basis, and the Browns are shutting out the Steelers in Pittsburgh, one thing I will NOT do is run onto the field in the fourth quarter to celebrate mine own assjackery.

... Hoagie brings the video. If you are at work, unless your co-workers like hearing the word "bitch," then you should turn the sound down before playing it.

Lump of coal

Perrotto One and Perrotto Two emerge with mischief.

The best thing about the Encarnacion courting is the ridiculous sum the Cardinals pledged to start him in right field. Like Byrnes, Encarnacion looked to me like a decent centerfield backup. Obviously you don't pay someone that much money to back up Chris Duffy. Since a team needs depth at that position, I still expect Littlefield to sign someone who can play center.

Sucks for us that Littlefield could not match Toronto's offer for Glaus. Here's wishing us a Manny New Year.

Week 16: Steelers at Browns

Must win. Marvel has been upgraded to probable. Please share your predictions/comments. I see Steelers winning big and covering easily: Steelers 30, Browns 16.

Happy Holidays

I've had too much of Rowdy's kool-aid so will be curling up under the table for a few days. Happy Holidays to all! Go Steelers!

A lunch-pail kind of guy

DK reports that the Bucs have made inquiries with Eric Byrnes' agent the last two days. I'd rather see Byrnes signed than Encarnacion. Byrnes should cost far less money. Juan made 4.4 million last year and is coming off his career year which still wasn't very good. But Rotoworld's take on this, that if Byrnes is signed, Craig "would likely be traded," scares me.

Willie can

The AP gives Willie Parker some love on the occasion of undrafted Willie needing 63 more yards to become only the sixth Steeler ever to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. Props to Willie, but we need to win on Saturday.

Juan Encarnacion

John Perrotto pours salt in our wounds reporting that DL wants Juan Encarnacion again. Nooooo! We went through this in spring training last year, but just to reiterate: Juan's sub-par power and poor on-base skills are exactly what we don't need and would likely ice that 14th straight losing season. Juan (career .268/.316/.440) wishes he could hit like Craig (career .268/.363/.488). Please don't do it, DL.

DL on free agent pool

DK has the story on DL's view of the free agent pool:

"As far as the names right now, I don't see anyone who will fill our needs for a bigger bat in right field or third base," DL said. "But there are always possibilities as far as what we can do for our depth in the outfield, and we're always looking for another arm in the bullpen. As far as extra-type players, there are a few in that group".

Beware, DL could have a field day with all them fourth outfielders and "extra-type players". Anyway, DK perpetuates the Eric Byrnes rumor. Byrnes has done well vs. LHPs, so might be useful in a bench role, provided he's dirt-cheap (which he should be, since he was putrid last year). As far as the suggestions made that Byrnes could be our new Wiggy, I'm just not seeing it. Byrnes throws himself all over the field and basepaths with reckless abandon, but even if he gained a lot of weight, I just can't picture him bowling anybody over like Wiggy.

Four Steelers selected to Pro Bowl

All hail Faneca, Hartings, Polamalu, and Porter!

All I want for Christmas

is some Excel-formatted or -formattable (i.e. tab-delimited) stats of MLB players and teams for 2005 (and ideally for past years too). Anybody have suggestions on where to find these?

Fogg non-tendered

RV made the cut, as Fogg is only non-tendered Buc. This frees up 3 more million for Manny Christmas.

Think I'll take a Christmas break

It's time to unplug for some days. You should too, if you can. Bones, I don't know where he is. Or when he'll be back. Maybe soon, maybe not.

If you want me again look for me under the mistletoe. I'll be the guy adding rum to the kool-aid. Cheers and huzza.

Mum's the word

Any news on the status of Fogg and Vogelsong?

Roberto Clemente's hypochondria

Milt Dunnell's 1973 column on Clemente's death has been posted to celebrate Dunnell's 100th birthday.

TORONTO—This time, there can be no doubting the seriousness of Roberto Clemente's injuries. Roberto Clemente, one of the most talented baseball players of his time — and, until recent years, one of the most unappreciated of superstars — is dead.

Clemente, who spent most of his 18 years as a big leaguer defending himself against insinuations that he was a hypochondriac — that he was the type of athlete who would apply a cast to a hangnail — lost his life on a mission of mercy.

We forget that Clemente was not a "gamer" who lived in denial of pain and injury. Go read the whole article. Finoli & Ranier treat it briefly in their Encyclopedia, where they attribute Clemente's "hypochondria" to the culture of Latin baseball. Do the Latin players still struggle to understand why the North American white boys pride themselves on playing through injury? Is anyone writing today on the different cultures & their different interpretations of such significant aspects of the game?

And oh for the days when "the Pirates firmly believed they were . . . better than any other team in the world."

Eric Byrnes and Emil Brown

John Perrotto has some inside-dopester stuff for you.

Tenders tomorrow

The deadline for offering contracts is tomorrow morning midnight. Dejan Kovacevic handicaps the situation.

Littlefield on vacation

Headed to Mexico.

Ollie has pitched well while he's down there.

Perez has impressed in limited duty for Culiacan, posting a 1.50 earned run average and 15 strikeouts in 12 innings spread over four appearances.

"My numbers are good, but the best thing is my velocity," he said. "The last time I pitched in Pittsburgh, I was at 90 mph. Now, I'm at 94, 95. The slider's good, too. I feel very strong. I'm feeling great."

Go Tomato Growers.

Strikeouts and Kip Wells

Ed Eagle explains why the brass are down on Craiggers and why Kip Wells has no trade value.

Strikeouts are your friend when they come with 850 OPS production. Are Littlefield and Tracy that irrational on the subject, or is this a cover for some other unmentionable concern with Craig Wilson?

Steelers could win out and miss playoffs

Mike Bires explains. An 11-5 team could miss the playoffs? The myth of parity in the NFL should be over after this year.

Sean Casey hurt and Sean Casey healthy

Sean Casey has been two players: Sean Casey hurt and Sean Casey healthy. Unlike the cases of Dr. Jekyll or the Hulk, the difference in Casey is not immediately visible. At times, he has played hurt, and the Cincinnati fans did not know he was playing hurt. The good news is that Sean Casey has been a .400 OBP / .500-.600 SLG player when healthy. Surely this is just what the Pirates, and every other team in the league, need from their first baseman. The bad news is not just that Sean Casey has been a .340 OBP / .360 SLG when playing hurt. Also bad news is the fact that Casey is one of those “gamers” who might keep an injury secret and plays hurt until people notice the long slump and realize he must be playing hurt. If this is not the case, then his coaches in Cincinnati were utter morons who kept starting him for no good reason. Either way, it appears that his injuries were routinely hidden from the fans. That might be typical, but Pirate fans will want to keep a close eye on Casey’s health and performance.

1999 and 2000

My memories of Casey’s career and health history were incomplete and fuzzy, so I spent an hour in the library pouring through the old newspapers. Here’s what I’ve gathered. I’m sure this is an incomplete record in two ways. First, I probably missed stories. Second, I’m sure there have been health issues that went unreported. So take the following summary as a rough sketch.

As a top prospect, Casey broke out in 1999. He was good all year, but surprisingly powerful in the first half. In the second half of the season he was only good, but surprisingly durable: he played in 151 games, a career high. (Between 1995 and 1998, he never played more than 120 games in a pro season) On the whole, he was one of the league’s best in 1999.

He began 2000 as Sean Casey hurt, missing most of the first month with a broken thumb. When he returned to the field, he sucked, perhaps because he was still working his way back from the thumb injury. From June to September, however, he was Sean Casey healthy, and he hit as well as he did in 1999. He had the power. He hit ten home runs in September.

2001 and 2002

Casey went into the 2001 season as a career .311 hitter with a .502 slugging percentage built out of 96 doubles, 6 triples, and 52 home runs. But he played through a series of minor injuries. He fouled a pitch off his foot in April, he strained his back in May, he hurt his ankle in July, he tore a muscle in his calf in September. And that’s not even a thorough summary of the bumps and bruises. He played 145 games, had 40 doubles, 13 home runs, and .310 / .369 / .458 final numbers. While that is a pretty good season, especially for a down year, expectations were high, and Casey’s season was regarded by many as a disappointment.

Because he smiled all the time, was adored by Red beat writers such as Hal McCoy, and hit for a gaudy average, the Baseball Prospectus crew nailed Casey as “overrated.” The emergence of Adam Dunn fueled the smart-guy negativity on Casey. Only old-school jackasses, the argument ran, could overvalue Casey’s charisma and somewhat hollow batting average. In early 2002, Adam Dunn was, literally, a centerpiece in the performance-analysis war on old fartation; he was even the cover boy for the January 2002 Baseball Prospectus annual.

By 2002, Casey and his injuries were interacting consistently. First, he continued to be hurt often. Second, he continued to hit feebly when hurt. He could maintain the average, but he could not drive the ball for extra bases. Or, he could drive the ball for extra bases, but he could not leg out those doubles.

Third and, I think, more interesting, is the fact that he continued to conceal his injuries. Casey’s conversations with the Cincinnati media consistently displayed a macho attitude about playing through pain.

I admire guys with high pain thresholds. I’m one of them, myself; it is cool to impress the doctors with an ability to endure pain. And hey, the less pain you feel, the less pain you feel. No one wants much pain in life.

That said, I’m not one to admire ballplayers who hurt their team by playing hurt. That’s not tough. It’s selfish. Ballplayers should take themselves out of the game if their injury significantly impairs their ability to perform. It's ironic that Sean Casey would have a much better reputation among performance analysts were he to cry, squeal, and miss time like J.D. Drew. He's never going to be like that, but Casey would help his team by being at least a little more unwilling to play through pain.

Let the record show, however, that Adam Dunn played 158 games in 2002. Despite the perception that the Reds were choosing Casey over Dunn, Casey did not cut into Dunn's playing time. Had Casey sat out those two months, his playing time would have gone to some one of Russell Branyan, Reggie Taylor, Jose Guillen, or Ruben Mateo. None of those guys had great years. If Casey hurt was truly the best available option for a non-contending team, that's an indictment of his organization for failing to provide adequate reserves.

The Reds finished 2002 at 78-84 in a year that saw the Cardinals run away with the Central. On June 1, the Reds were 46-61 and twenty games back. There was no good reason for Casey to continue playing hurt, but he did so anyway.

After enduring a 1-for-22 slump to end a .133 July, Casey went on the 15-day DL with a sore shoulder. He came back in August for another four weeks. In September, they operated on his left shoulder. The surgeon found a torn labrum and a torn rotator cuff. They sewed him up, and the season went down as one in which Casey only hit .261 / .334 / .362 line in 120 games.

2003 and 2004

The following February, Hal McCoy lionized Casey in the Dayton Daily News for, basically, hiding the injury in 2002 and inflicting a suck-ass hitting performance on his teammates. “Because Casey smiles through the darkest of days without a whimper, few suspected anything,” McCoy wrote. You don’t have to be a hard-boiled fan to get sick on that spin. More disturbing for me, though, is the fact that (according to McCoy) Casey had “secretly” received a cortisone shot in the shoulder so he could continue to go out there, all gimpy, and more or less suck.

At the end of March, 2003, Casey looked healthy and very good at the plate. The Reds opened their new ballpark. FWIW, in an interesting and prescient remark, Will Carroll, in one of his Baseball Prospectus reports, cautioned his audience – on the advice of one his “smart readers” – not to expect the ballpark to help Casey’s power numbers. Many people guessed (correctly) then that GAB would be a hitter’s park whose short right-field porch would favor left-handed home run hitters, but Carroll wr0te then that “Casey’s power is mostly to the opposite field.” Casey would often explain himself as someone who “is a high-average guy, a guy who hits the balls in the gaps.” As I wrote about in a previous post, Casey did not thrive in the GAB.

His first month in 2003 was pretty good. He hit .323 / .391 / .495 in 110 PA. His May was awful; playing every day, he only managed a .257 / .305 / .321 line. At the end of the month, Reds fans were eager to trade him, and Hal McCoy offered another classic defense of Casey as a high-average good guy. “Most of all,” he wrote, Casey “hits home as one of the world's great human beings so who cares if he hits homers?”

Casey recovered with a decent June (.323 / .359 / .479 playing full-time). But he gimped his groin in mid-July and struggled with this the rest of the season. His August was particularly lame (.245 / .292 / .306). Will Carroll expressed some skepticism about the strength of his surgically-repaired shoulder, but he also predicted the groin problem would go away with extended – that is, offseason – rest. He finished 2003 with .291 / .350 / .408 numbers. His home run total – 14 – was down from his healthy days (he hit 20 in 2000 and 25 in 1999). But not so down as his doubles. After hitting 42, 33, and 40 the previous year, ripped-groin Casey only hobbled out 19 doubles in 2003. If the slow-footed Casey cannot leg out his doubles, he’s not going to slug .500 in 2006. He does not have speed to spare.

The healthy Sean Casey returned for April and May 2004. STATS wrote this about him: “Casey came to spring training . . . with added muscle, and the new strength was evident. He became quicker on inside pitches and was able to pull balls much more frequently for extra bases. At the same time, he retained his ability to take outside pitches to the opposite field with extra-base authority.” In April, and you might remember this – I know I do – he hit .414 / .458 / .667. In May, he hit .377 / .422 / .623. On June 1, Joe Sheehan, the dean of Baseball Prospectus, lamented that Casey would probably make the All-Star team for these “great eight weeks.”

Indeed, the down-with-Casey, up-with-Dunn crowd handled his stellar play with a frustration partly created by Dunn's struggle to hit for any average and re-gain full-time playing status. Like Casey, Dunn had been also been busty in 2003 (hitting .215 / .354 / 465), a year in which Dunn lost playing time to Casey and the suddenly-1000 OPS Jose Guillen. FWIW, Dunn played in 161 games in 2004, so the red-hot Casey was no threat to Dunn’s playing time. So perhaps it was just the memory of this high-average smiling good guy robbing PT from the free-swinging goon that motivated pundits like Sheehan to piss on Casey's hot start as flukish. While it was flukish in the sense that Casey had often been injured, it's not much of a fluke for a hitter like Casey to flirt with .400 for the first two months of a season. His emergence in 2004 was nothing like that of players like Melvin Mora or Brian Roberts. He had a history of playing at that level.

Casey then went .266 / .327 / 532 for the month of June, slowed by a hamstring strain and a calf strain. There’s an old baseball saying that doubles turn into homers which expresses the typical development, over time, of youthful doubles hitters into more sedentary home run hitters. Will this happen with Casey? He better plan on it, I think, for he has little speed to spare. 2004 showed some of this metamorphosis, as Casey’s power numbers for the first three months featured more home runs: he had 11 doubles and 3 homers in April, 8 and 6 in May, and 7 and 6 in June. On June 24, his numbers were .361 / .410 / .625. The Reds were eight-games over .500 and owners of the third-best record in the National League.

By the end of the month, Casey was in a walking boot. His injured calf did not heal despite sunny early reports of his imminent return. Casey wound up on the DL. When he came back, he was lousy. If he was not playing hurt, he was not playing well. In July he played most of the games and put up better but still lousy .234 / .338 / .375 numbers. If his injuries heal before these post-injury periods of swinging a wet noodle, then we can still say that Casey has trouble both playing with injury and playing after injury. Given that he speaks of his ability to play through pain, I'm guessing that he has consistently returned from injury before he was truly ready.

Come August, he was back to early-season form, hitting .349 / .400 / .594 in good health. He wore down in September and finished 2004 with .324 / .381 / .534 numbers in 625 PAs.

As a Pirate fan, I find this 2004 season encouraging. It’s clear that Casey will be a substantial injury risk for the Bucs, and it’s clear that Casey will probably play hurt and suck before anyone figures out he’s hurt. But it’s also still clear to me that he still has 900-1000 OPS upside. When he’s been healthy, he’s been very good.

2005

This past season, Casey missed time at the end of spring training with some kind of leg problem. In gamer fashion, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer, "If this was the season, I'd wrap it up and play.” Let’s hope that the Pittsburgh reporters follow up such statements with questions such as, “Is it possible that you would be hurting the team and delaying full recovery by doing that?”

Perhaps because of this leg problem, he stumbled out of the gate, hitting only .276 / .323 / .356. By May he was on fire again, hitting .361 / .415 / .505. Toward the end of the month, he jammed his left shoulder in the field and missed a number of games. Casey apparently feared some terrible injury to his surgically-repaired shoulder. At this same time, you may remember, the Reds cut Danny Graves and Casey was widely quoted as “shocked,” teary-eyed, and somewhat unglued. Things were coming apart for Casey; I’m sure his memories of this part of the season are not pleasant.

An MRI revealed only a bruised rotator cuff, so he did the tough-guy thing and played hurt for all of June and July. Austin Kearns and Ryan Freel were out for most of these months, so Casey played in place of guys like Jason Romano. But the Reds were 18 games under .500 on July 1, so why not play Jason Romano and get your slugger back into form? Casey's June and July numbers were acceptable only for a middle infielder: .303 / .349 / .364 in June, .287 / .374 / .386 in July.

It appears from his stats – if they can tell the story - that his shoulder had recovered by early August. He was hitting the ball with authority then. If he had missed a few more weeks in June, would his shoulder have healed more quickly? As a Pirate fan, I’d much rather have one month of Craig Wilson and/or Brad Eldred if it means Casey will return to his 900-1000 OPS form at the end of their relief work.

In mid-August, before a game, Casey signed 200 promotional figurines for employees of the Reds organization. In his first at-bat, he felt something in his shoulder and removed himself from the game. At this point, Jerry Narron revealed to the media that Casey had played much of the season with pain in the shoulder. “He has not made an excuse about [his shoulder] and has played through it. At times it has felt good and at times he has struggled with it, and tonight he just couldn't go.” When did Jerry Narron find out that Casey’s shoulder hurt him? I’d be asking that question if I was a beat reporter who just learned that an obviously-slumping player was playing through injury.

Casey was godawful in September, hitting only .240 / .278 / .260 in the games before Humberto Cota dealt Casey the third concussion of his playing career. Casey was still woozy on September 24, when Jerry Narron confirmed that his season was finished.

2006

There are a lot of reasons to like the Sean Casey acquisition that have nothing to do with his sunny disposition or willingness to sign 200 bobbleheads in the hours before a game.

The Pirates are pretty good defensively. Their young rotation has tremendous potential, and it’s not crazy talk to speculate on the odds that Mike Gonzalez might develop, as Jim Tracy likes to say, into an Eric Gagne-like closer.

The problem for the Pirates is offense. They are committed to Jack Wilson and Jose Castillo. Jack Wilson’s Michael Young impersonation ended abruptly with the start of the 2005 season. We don’t what we’ll get from him in 2006, his walk year. Jose Castillo’s development as a hitter does not appear to have him on the Chase Utley career path. The rookie catcher (Doumit) and centerfielder (Duffy) are unproven. The relatively inexperienced third baseman (Freddy Sanchez) is an equal enigma.

For the Bucs to improve significantly in 2006, they will need lots more offense, and they need offense from the corner positions to make up for the probable lack of offense up the middle. Teams with more than one player like Manny Ramirez are not teams that engage in salary dumps. And it makes no sense to overpay in high-upside rookies for a year or two of a Manny Ramirez-type player. The Pirates have the money to take on a high-payroll player, but you can’t buy what’s not for sale.

Sean Casey’s upside is as high as that of almost anyone. The odds that Casey will be healthy wire-to-wire may not be great, but that’s the kind of chance we have to be taking.

All the talk of Sean Casey being a proven mediocrity is just wrong, in my book. His career has been too uneven, and his injuries have been too common and played too obvious a role in the fluctuation of his slugging ability.

We don’t know what we’ll get with Sean Casey in 2006. Projecting the performance of a player like this is a nonsensical exercise. The track record suggests that if he’s healthy, he’ll be very good, and he’ll more than justify his salary. If he’s not healthy, he won’t be so good, but he may be good enough that Jim Tracy will not raise too many eyebrows by running him out their through what might look, on the surface, to be nothing more than a prolonged slump.

If Pirate fans can do anything to help, I think they can do two things. First, watch Casey's performance and question his health if he's slumpy. In almost every down month since 1999, Casey has been going on or coming off the DL. Or playing, as he did for all of 2003, with conspicuous nagging injuries. He's too good to just suck for no reason for a whole month.

Second, Pirate fans should not expect Sean Casey to play more than three-quarters of the games. We should ask each other, who is the back-up plan? The Pirates must have one, I think. If you can't rest Casey, you can't get the best from him. After reviewing Casey's history of health and preformance, I would strongly urge the organization to keep Craig Wilson for 2006. The Casey signing makes Craiggers even more essential. We need more than Jason Romano backing up Sean Casey.

We can expect great things from Casey without being irrational and merely excited. But we should also expect Littlefield to do a better job providing Jim Tracy with other options for the probably-inevitable period when Casey needs rehab time. Littlefield has always been about "flexibility," so I'd guess Tracy will be better off in that department than Boone and Narron were. But we shall see.

Steelers at Vikings

I am not a good hater as I don't hate many things. But I hate dome football.

... hey, that was all right.