Game 82: Phillies at Pirates

It's Jon Lieber, former Bucco, and Kip Wells, soon-to-be-former Bucco, in an hour.

Ron Zook's column today appears under the headline, "Pirates all but done at season's midpoint". Sure, it must be embarassing, as a fan and as a newspaper man, to remember that the Bucs' 30-30 record earned front-page status. Zook's disappointment resonates with what we all feel.

It's not true, of course, that the season is all but done. They have 81 more games to play. They can play them like exhibition games or they can play them to win. Odds are, they will do some of both.

With the Pirates out of playoff contention, fans are robbed of some of the pleasure that comes with following a team on a day-to-day basis. The individual games can be worth something, however, especially if the team plays gamely, maybe wins, and does not embarrass the person who spent his hard-earned free time paying attention. If the team approaches each game as an exhibition, forget it -- fans won't watch a week of these games and come back. Until next year, maybe.

The Bucs have some interesting decisions to make about the allocation of playing time over the rest of the year. Some Pirate fans and non-Pirate-fan baseball writers now urge the team to dump the vets and start whatever rookies have promise. The theory seems to hold that playing time is the team's most valuable resource; it is something that should not be squandered on players who won't be here in 2006 or 2007. Therefore the guys with the most promising minor-league numbers must start every day, regardless of what failure they might show us, in the hopes that they get through the growing pains. Only playing time develops big-leaguers, the theory holds.

I have no problem with these arguments provided they come from fans who watch the Pirates on a regular basis and will continue to watch the Pirates on a regular basis. Beat writers who must watch the Pirates every day, regardless of their performance, are obviously more willing to endure the potential horror of all rookies, all the time: they will be there regardless.

Take Ryan Doumit. Should the Pirates eat half of Lawton's contract to give him more playing time? I can see how that makes sense, but I do note that most of the baseball writers who hail him as the second coming of Craig Wilson are not writers who buy Pirates tickets or follow the Pirates or no other baseball, night after night. If Doumit can play well enough to warrant all the playing time, I say give it to him. If he doesn't start hitting, I say we let the people who watch the team day after day decide what's best. It's easy to preach that Ryan Doumit should get a position and unlimited PT the rest of the way. It might be much harder to watch. Folks willing to preach and not watch will kindly stop preaching. This is our baseball team, the summer's not half over, and I want to enjoy what games I can. I also happen to think that this is the best attitude management could have for long-term growth, but that's another series of posts.

I'm definitely leaning toward giving Doumit the rest of the season to show us what he can do, but I can't promise that I won't change my mind if his play becomes unbearably bad. I can promise, however, that I won't have an opinion about a team I'm not following night after night.

The way I see it, one day at a time is best the Pirates can offer. Any given baseball game can be a great entertainment. For the sake of the fans who turn on a game or go to the ballpark, I hope the Bucs play well, or as well as they can, day after day. If this means some slumping rookies need to be benched before their failure demoralizes the whole team, then I'll go easy on the manager who keeps him on the bench.

There's a lot of baseball left in the season. I'm fine with any allocations of playing time provided they respect the present moment. I'm not young enough to think I'll live forever. If I watch the game tonight, I'd like for the Pirates to play like it counts.

Lawton on the block

He has good things to say about McClendon, too.

And get well Craig Wilson, whose return is also covered in that DK notebook. We need the Jim Thome edition.

John Perrotto says we shouldn't expect much until the winter meetings.

Sell out

From Dejan Kovacevic's recap of yesterday's drubbing:

Despite no tangible improvement in the on-field product -- the team fell to 35-46 at the halfway mark, a season-low 11 games under .500 -- average attendance is 23,193, which is 3,517 higher than it was at the same point in 2004.

The crowd yesterday was the fourth sellout of the season and the largest for a Fourth of July at PNC Park. The Fourth drew 19,029 last year. And the walk-up sale was only 4,676, meaning the impact of revelers descending on Downtown for fireworks was minimal.

It's good news, I think.

Is attendance up this much all over baseball?

Game 81: Phillies at Pirates

Half-way through the season now. Cory Lidle and Dave Williams at 4pm on July 4th.

Good to see the Phillies. Of all the former NL East division rivals, the Phillies are the team I miss seeing regularly.

Trade everybody

No, seriously, that won't happen.

My guess: unless the Bucs manage a mega-deal with one team, sending a whole slew a players to one new city, there's little chance of acquiring the kind of good, young hitter the Bucs need. We'll still be waiting for one of the young hitters we now have to become that person.

If 2005 goes like 2004, the team will play well in July. Fan interest will mount. Trades will go down. Fans will be disappointed. The Bucs will fade, and the football season will be upon us.

Mike Prisuta has it about right. The Bucs have been thoroughly eliminated from playoff contention. And I was happy to bump along with a 10% chance.

Joe Rutter has more dope. Most interesting latest rumor? The Yankees want Tike Redman to man center.

Game 80: Pirates at Brewers

Open thread.

Game 79: Pirates at Brewers

All hail no. 57. This one starts at seven.

Pirate hitting, June 10 to July 1

It's been about three weeks since I last did this. This stretch includes the following series (home games in CAPS): TB, nyy, bos, WAS, stl, was, and one game at Milwaukee. The Bucs went 6-13 during that stretch. Hitting is half the story, of course. But when we get to this part of the season, players can heat up or cool down without the fans noticing much since the effect of the streak no longer makes an enormous dent in the season-to-date statistics.

• Rob Mackowiak struck out 21 times in 74 at-bats. He hit for good power when he made contact: he had four doubles and two home runs in his last 14 hits. Looks like he might want to take something off his swing if too much gusto has played a role in that strikeout rate.
• Jason Bay has been our very own Albert Pujols. In 19 games, he contributed 17 runs, 10 RBI, 28 hits, seven doubles, and four home runs.
• Matt Lawton has been a 770 OPS left-fielder. That includes a 359 OBP.
• Jose Castillo looks good.
• Daryle Ward has been sneaky. His overall numbers, pretty miserable for a first baseman, include 15 RBIs. He has been hitting for no power at all - only three doubles in his last 19 hits.
• Ryan Doumit has been a work-in-progress.
• Freddy Sanchez hasn't been much help with the bat. Jack Wilson has also been swinging a limp noodle. Bobby Hill, on the other hand, has quietly made a bid for more playing time.
• Tike Redman has been a generic fourth outfielder at the plate.
• David Ross has outhit Humberto Cota by a wide margin.

..NAME... .TM GM PA ..BA. ..SLG ..OBP R+RBI
Bay,Jason PIT 19 81 0.368 0.618 0.422 27
Lawton,Ma PIT 18 75 0.242 0.409 0.359 19
CastilloJ PIT 19 70 0.277 0.477 0.329 17
Ward,Dary PIT 19 81 0.257 0.297 0.313 21
Mackowiak PIT 18 78 0.189 0.324 0.241 17
Doumit,Ry PIT 17 52 0.220 0.340 0.316 15
Wilson,Ja PIT 19 69 0.194 0.299 0.229 10
Hill,Bobb PIT 08 18 0.333 0.467 0.474 06
Sanchez,F PIT 13 54 0.240 0.240 0.296 06
Redman,Ti PIT 13 33 0.300 0.300 0.364 05
Ross,Davd PIT 06 18 0.353 0.471 0.389 04
Cota,Humb PIT 14 43 0.214 0.310 0.239 08
Restovich PIT 07 10 0.400 0.700 0.400 05
McLouth,N PIT 02 02 0.000 0.000 0.000 00

Game 78: Pirates at Brewers

Eight o'clock, Mark Redman and Tomo Ohka.

All hail Mark Redman for the I-want-to-play-in-Pittsburgh comments. This was unexpected and I'm not sure what to make of it. He is a good fit.

Zach Duke tomorrow. We can't have too many left-handed starters. Here's John Perrotto's report on the call-up. Perrotto touts Duke as BA's top prospect. Since Perrotto writes that column on the Bucs for Baseball America, shouldn't he write, " Baseball America I rated Duke as the Pirates' top prospect coming into this season"?

New Pirate-related historical marker.

Ollie's in the boot. He's still pouting:

"When you get mad, you don't think about anything," Perez said. "You're just angry."

He goes on to say that everyone loses control when they are angry. I'd say yes, when they are four years old. Does this guy need anger management classes? I hate to kick a guy when he's down, but to me it looks like this is related to his performance on the mound. If he wants to make a gazillion dollars and win championship rings, he's going to have to learn to take a little off and control himself when he's so full of emotion.

Dejan Kovacevic reports that Zach Duke is clicking away on his laptop. I'm hoping that he's not emailing Carlos Zambrano every few minutes.

Game 77: Pirates at Nationals

One o'clock. Kip Wells and Estaban Whatshisname. I wonder if there will be any ten-gallon hats in the stands to scout Houston boy.

Game 76: Pirates at Nationals

Good Q & A today from Dejan Kovacevic. Regarding Doumit -- I'm not sure that playing a guy every day is the only way to commit to him, but he's right, I think, that the Bucs have got themselves into a position (with so much starting pitching) where they need to be finding bats first and positions for them to play second. As much as I like Lawton and as much as I touted trying to win now, the fact is, the season has not gone as I hoped. As I suspected, the disastrous April looks to be too much for the team to overcome. I think they can play .500 ball or .525 ball the rest of the way, even if they are playing younger guys, but that won't be enough to crack .500 permanently until, maybe, the very end of the season. Doumit needs to start more often, even if that means Matt Lawton rests more than he'd like.

Regading the hot hand -- he's absolutely right that batter vs. specific pitcher splits mean little more than batter vs. yesterday's pitcher splits. I've written about this before. A batter v. pitcher split has to be quite dramatic to clearly lie outside the allowance for randomness. They may still have use as an impartial way of alloting playing time; the manager can say, I don't make the lineup, your past performance does. Used that way, they may serve another, different purpose, then, that might be a good tactic for a manager who is forced to platoon a bunch of guys. It's probably not working much better than drawing names from a hat or using a clubhouse Magic 8 ball: Should Ryan start today? Signs point to yes. But it's less obviously arbitrary and has the virtue of rewarding past performance.

Much is made of the "hot hand" being superstition. It may be with basketball shooting, but it's not with hitting. I don't what all factors go into this, but it's plenty clear to me that players who have been red hot the past few days or weeks are much more likely to rip your pitchers than players who are coming off an 0-for-11 streak with six strikeouts--regardless of their career numbers.

The Dock Ellis article of a few days ago also made me think the Bucs should start throwing the ball high, hard, and inside on some of these guys who been giving us the Jose Guillen treatment. It was long a part of the game for good reason.

Maybe that's why Mike Johnston was recalled ... to do some Bob Probert from the mound. (Back when he was writing his own Pirates blog, Mojo suggested that Johnston belonged on the fourth line.) Send him in there to buzz some towers.

Dave Williams and John Patterson in two minutes.

Welcome Nate

McLouth up. No word yet about whether or not he takes Ollie's turn in the rotation.

I kinda doubt it.

Game 75: Pirates at Nationals

Josh Fogg and Ryan Drese. For some reason I thought this one started at eight. Whatever, a 1-0 lead after a few frames.

haloscan down, so i ask here. all hail ian snell. who starts in ollie's place? ryan vogelsong?

Kicking the cart

Get well, Ollie.

I wish maturity came in a can. Ollie's biggest challenge appears to be youth.

The next winning Pirate team

Is on the field, mostly. So writes Brian O'Neill:

The sweetly unexpected Pirates victory Sunday in St. Louis, the kind of one-run nail-biter that the team had been losing most of the season, was a pretty good snapshot of what a winning Pirates team will look like.

Jason Bay drove in four of the five runs with two home runs. Then came the winning 10th-inning blast, a line-drive over the left-field fence by Jose Castillo. All around and in between, the Pirates turned six double plays.

This team is often misrepresented by the casual fan as having a lack of major-league players. In fact, nearly every Pirate would make nearly every team, though not necessarily the starting lineup. The Pirates' problem is having just one top-tier hitter in Bay, surrounded by four average hitters plus three below-average hitters at key defensive positions."

Either we get more up the middle, or we need to replace one of the average-for-his-position hitters with some kind of Albert Pujols. Either way, all the Bucs need is one or two more power hitters who contribute consistently and play every day.

The Greatest Series Game Ever Played

It was 1925.

Not terrible

From this Shelly Anderson story about this stretch of schedule:

"My God, you look at the schedule -- and I don't mean to keep harping on it; everybody has a tough schedule -- but we started with Florida, Atlanta, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, New York, Washington, St. Louis, a day off, and then Washington," McClendon said. The Pirates began that stretch strong, winning the Florida, Atlanta, Baltimore and Tampa Bay series before being swept by the Yankees, losing two of three in Boston and two of three against the Nationals last week at home. With the split against St. Louis, their record over those games is 13-13, which could be considered encouraging for a team trying to climb out of a 12-year slump, but that doesn't mean McClendon wouldn't like what he thinks would be a fairer schedule.

If you want to improve, you have to face tougher competition. When I played chess every day, I tried to lose two-thirds of my games, i.e., I tried to play only much better players. I never lost on purpose.

The Bucs are in a slightly different situation. They have to sell tickets to their games to generate the money needed to acquire and retain the players they need to be tougher competition.

Anyway, 13-13 in this stretch is not horrible - in fact it's evidence the Pirates are something like a .500 ballclub. Will they finish at .500? Hard to say. A .500 ballclub will not make up the games they lost in April.

Trade dope

Ed Eagle has some.

KPatrick sent me this Gammons link, too. KPatrick is right: Littlefield is saying all the right things.

Off day - looking ahead

Two paragraphs from the end of Dejan Kovacevic's notebook:

Littlefield and McClendon got out a paper and pen after the game Saturday night to do a little speculating on what the team's 2006 starting rotation might look like.

They saw a lot of options.

Although Oliver Perez is pretty much of a lock, the other options include the other starters this season -- Dave Williams, Josh Fogg, Kip Wells and Mark Redman, although Redman is in an interesting situation because he has a player's option on his contract.

Then, there's Snell, as well as Class AAA prospect Zach Duke, two young players who might be ready to start in the major leagues next year.

In addition, Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten are on the disabled list, but are expected to be healthy next spring.

Gray area

With the non-waiver trade deadline coming up in a little more than a month, Littlefield said the Pirates' outlook fluctuates.

"How we perform dictates that a little bit," Littlefield said. "Two weeks ago, there are a lot of high hopes of where we might go, but we've had a tough schedule and we have not pitched as well and our power numbers aren't as good as they were, so, as we sit right now, I'd have to say we're in that gray area of being a seller."

So the Bucs don't have Redman signed for next year after all? If it's a player option, and one for a relatively low number, it's hard to see Redman exercising it. He could become a free agent and make more on the open market.

Oliver Perez is not the untouchable he was a year ago. Much of his trouble looks mental to me. Other teams might be inclined to think a change of scene would do him well, and they might even part with the high-caliber bat the Pirates need.

I don't want to see the Pirates become the Reds - all hitting and no pitching - but it's plain as day that the team needs at least one more middle-of-the-order guy to compete in the NL Central.

Game 74: Pirates at Cardinals

Hey, the good guys won, a one-run game no less, salvaging a split of the series.

Missed it. I see in the box score that Oliver Perez made Jason Marquis look good. What's up with that? Has he turned around the turn around? Seven hits and five walks in six innings? I'd say the Bucs won, no thanks to Ollie. Anyone see this one and have an opinion on the Ollie?

Snell recalled

Report here.

Game 73: Pirates at Cardinals

Closing in on the half-season mark of 81 games, the Bucs start Mark Redman against Chris Carpenter.

Game 72: Pirates at Cardinals

Eight-ten, Kip Wells and Jeff Suppan.

Duke, Snell to All-Star Futures Game

News here, in the PG.

Dock Ellis

A Dock Ellis story, feature from the Dallas Observer by Keven McAlester. Thanks to mugger for the link.

Game 71: Pirates at Cardinals

The first of four in St. Louis. The last time they played the Cardinals, they went in playing well, played OK, and got swept. Now they go in playing somewhat crappy. Eight o'clock, Dave Williams and Matt Morris.

Many stories today about McClendon arguing or not arguing with umpires. I wonder if he's starting to crack or if there's just nothing better to report.

Game 70: Nats at Pirates

Day game. Noon-thirty I think. The Nationals will send someone out there, maybe Patterson, maybe not. Josh Fogg will start for the Pirates. He's due for a good start.

Them lazy umps

From the Post-Gazette's Q & A by Dejan Kovacevic:

Be very certain that the Pirates were shown no respect whatsoever by the crews at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park last week.

Longtime readers know I am not one to write much about officiating. When I do, it is usually to dismiss such complaints. But what happened in New York and Boston, especially in New York, stuck out to the point that it raised some obvious questions. It would take a conspiratorial mind-set rivaling Oliver Stone's to imagine that umpires are favoring either New York or Boston, but I think there is abundant evidence that teams that are seen as being in contention get calls over those who are not.

These umpires, specifically, were so very clearly operating with a mindset that was influenced either by the large and vocal crowds in those stadiums or the reputations of the participating teams. There almost is no other way to explain missing the call at first on Wednesday or the possibly worse call at second on Friday.

Either is a poor excuse.

Even then, all of that was topped by the remarkably unprofessional behavior of umpire Tony Randazzo in New York. After blowing the call, he stood by first base and stared into the Pirates' dugout, then motioned with his hand for McClendon to shoo away. Then, the next night, after he allegedly was distraught by his error, he followed an unrelated argument with McClendon (this one had to with the Randy Johnson thing . . .) by turning toward the Pirates' dugout and making a safe call.

That is beyond belief.

And people wonder why we get so upset when the off-season publications lazily repeat the story that the Pirates are losers doomed to be losing forever. If you think it doesn't have an effect on the playing field, look no further.

Game 69: Nats at Pirates

Seven o'clock. Ryan Drese, formerly of Cleveland fame, and Oliver Perez.

Yet another must-win game for our Bucs.

Bad luck

Is the theme of this week's Stats Geek.

More bravery should solve the problem.

Buyers and sellers

Guess what -- the Astros will be buyers this July.

I think the GMs are gaming the whole buying / selling talk. Everyone trading will posture as a "buyer." That's good PR I suppose. When I say I think the Bucs should buy, I mean I think they should deal prospects for what they want. That they should relieve some team of its best hitter and send enough shiny kids to please that team's local media. A roster only has so much room for young players slumping in and out of strict platoon situations.

FWIW, the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles are high on Kip Wells. Kip may be the exception to what I just said. He'll fetch more in trade than Zach Duke or Ian Snell, I'm pretty sure, and I'd just as soon see what one of those guys can do.

Game 68: Nats at Pirates

Home sweet home. Seven o'clock, Andre the Giant vs. Mark Redman.

True grit

From Dejan Kovacevic's notebook:

From Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy: "The Pirates seem to get no help from the umpires -- like rookie Greg Kite trying to draw a charge from Kareem Abdul-Jabbar -- but they've played with pride and grit."

Jack Wilson, from John Perrotto's recap:

"Everyone will look at us going 1-5 on this road trip and say we were overmatched, but that's not accurate" said shortstop Jack Wilson, who had two of the Pirates' four hits.

"We should have won the middle game in New York. We were right in each of the first two games here. We showed we can play with these teams but it's disappointing we didn't win a few more games."

In other news, more Doumit please.

Apple don't fall far from the tree

The New York Daily News looks at the twenty-five big leaguers who are sons of big-leaguers.

I'd like to take this moment to thank my father, who taught me blogging back in the 1970s. Without him I'd never be where I'm at today. Happy Father's Day. All hail the fathers.

Arroyo: Bucs clubhouse too strict

John Perrotto reports. I didn't realize Bronson was related to Kordell.

Game 67: Pirates at Red Sox

Two o'clock, Wells and Clement.

Happy Father's Day, too.

Castillo, Ward

Lots of tidbits in the Sunday notebook from Dejan Kovacevic.

Fans on tour

All hail all you guys who went to New York and Boston. Gene Collier has a report.

Game 66: Pirates at Red Sox

Seven o'clock, Dave Williams and Tim Wakefield. This one will be played without umpires.

Game 65: Pirates at Red Sox

Seven o'clock, Josh Fogg and Wade Miller.

Friday

Mike Prisuta says curb your enthusiasm. Lower your expectations is more like it. If you can't have or are made to feel embarassed because you get enthusiastic about a baseball team, that's just wrong. Enthuse away. It's OK to look silly if you're having fun. Baseball is not foreign policy.

Tony Randazzo blew it. Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic have that story. Mike Emeigh has a good theory in the Primer thread for one or the other of the articles: Randazzo was out of position all the way.

My theory is that no one expects to see good infield defense in Yankee stadium these days. The Yankee fans were stunned to see the Bucs turning so many double plays. So a general atmosphere of disbelief also contributed to Randazzo's confusion.

From Dejan Kovacevic's notebook:

From the Pirates' official pregame media notes yesterday: "Pittsburgh's defensive unit has turned 17 double plays in the past eight games. ... It would have been 18 had the first-base umpire made the correct call last night."

Yeah, the blown call sucked, but let's not get whiny about it. Games are not won or lost on the final play alone. The Pirates had numerous chances to put the Yankees away before the blown double-play call.

Craig Wilson won't be back soon, John Perrotto reports. He also notes that Doumit won't play any first base at the major-league level. Long term, you want him to work out as a catcher. But you also want his bat in the lineup 130 to 150 games. That's not catcherish. Either he gets some playing time at other positions, suddenly learns to be a great, every day catcher, or you move him to a corner.

Mark Redman is the player's choice for All-Star, Dejan Kovacevic reports. Of course, Tony La Russa will make the pick, and I expect he'll figure out a way to make the pick in some fashion that belittles his division rivals and softens them up for the next series with St. Louis. I'm guessing he picks Matt Lawton or Jose Mesa before he does anything to dispel the doubts that cling, for most non-Pirate fans, to the rest of the roster.

Game 64: Pirates at Yankees

Dejan Kovacevic previews tonight's long-awaited matchup.

Mesa would accept trade

DK reports. He wants the other team to be on the east coast. And they have to pick up his option.

I don't see it happening. But I've been plenty wrong before, so who knows.

Game 63: Pirates at Yankees

Seven o'clock. Mark Redman, Kevin Brown.

Party like it's 1997

Today the Bucs are 30-32, two games under .500. On this date in 1997, the Pirates were also two games under .500. And in first place. Despite getting badly outscored over the course of the season, they hung near .500 the whole year and were not eliminated from the playoffs until the final weekend.

The year did not begin well. In December 1996, Cam Bonifay traded Jay Bell and Jeff King to the Royals. Royals GM Herk Robinson gloated about the deal and within a month, it was the consensus opinion of GMs, sports writers, and Pittsburgh fans that Bonifay had been fleeced. Rather than trade them separately and get a greater return, Bonifay had opted to reward their loyalty to the team by trading Bell and King, best friends, to the same team.

The Bucs cut their payroll to $9M, ten percent less than Albert Belle's salary. Because the Pirates stud shortstop prospect, Chad Hermansen, was not yet ready for the bigs, the Bucs signed Kevin Elster for $1.65M of that $9M.

Everyone predicted the Pirates would lose 100 games. The Pirates brought 70 players to camp in March and new manager Gene Lamont picked through the scrubs to assemble a roster. One of those NRIs was Kevin Young, a 27-year-old player who was cut by the Pirates and the Royals in 1996.

The team worried about attendance. In 1994, the Bucs had the league's worst attendance record. 1995 was somewhat better, but the front office, led by 34-year-old Kevin McClatchy, was looking forward to a November 1997 referendum on public financing for new stadiums for the Pirates and the Steelers. The Pirates marketed the team as hard-working regular stiffs. Television ads showed players taking public transportation to the ballpark.

April was bitter cold. Temperatures were in the 30s and 40s and fans were not coming to the park. Consecutive games in mid-month brought crowds of 6900, 6800, 6000, and 9000.

By the end of April, it was clear that the starting rotation was pretty good. It consisted of Esteban Loaiza, Steve Cooke, Francisco Cordova, Jason Schmidt, and Jon Lieber. Jason Schmidt struggled in April. Jon Lieber struggled all year with left-handed hitters. Loaiza, Cooke, and Cordova, however, were surprisingly good. These five players would combine to start 157 of the Pirates' 162 games. Al Martin and Jason Kendall emerged as the obvious nucleus of the team going forward.

In early May, the Pirates were hovering below first place. The NL Central was appallingly weak; the Cubs began the year with thirteen losses. After being a half game out for about a week, the Pirates moved into a first-place tie on May 13. The bottom clubs in the five-team NL Central were St. Louis (16-21), Cincinnati (11-25), and Chicago (11-25).

They were in and out of first, within a game or two, for all of May and most of June, despite losing key position players - Kevin Elster, Al Martin and Jermaine Allensworth - to injury. On June 15, at 32-34, they shared first place with the 33-35 Astros. The 31-35 Cardinals were a game out. The Pirates had been outscored 274 to 302 in those 66 games. On June 21, they were 6 games under .500 and had been outscored, 293 to 340. They were two and half games out of first place.

For the final series before the All-Star break, the Pirates travelled to St. Louis. They began the series two games behind the division-leading Cardinals, who boasted a 41-41 record. The Pirates swept the four-game series and went into the All-Star break at 43-43, with sole possesion of first place.

Pirate fans took notice. On Saturday, July 12, the Pirates sold out Three Rivers Stadium. Maybe it was being in first place. Maybe it was fireworks night. 44,000 fans watched Francisco Cordova and Ricardo Rincon no-hit the Astros. The Pirates moved back into a tie for first place.

A .500 club, the Bucs had been outscored 369 to 413. But the starting rotation was solid, the division was weak, and the Pirates played well enough. They won big games - huge games - in dramatic fashion. Speaking to the national media in mid-July, Gene Lamont emphasized that the Pirates could only hope the Astros and the Cardinals continued to play mediocre baseball. At the July 31 trade deadline, the only news involving Pirates players was the season-ending injury to power-hitting prospect Ron Wright. Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic believed Bonifay had been looking for a left-handed starter such as Wilson Alvarez, John Smiley, or Terry Mulholland, but no trade went down. Despite the good run, the generous division, and the need to make a good impression on fans and voters, the front office was not convinced it made sense to diverge from the long-term rebuilding plan with 2001 as the goal. The Cardinals, on the other hand, sent Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, and Blake Stein to the Oakland Athletics for Mark McGwire.

By the end of August, Cam Bonifay's national reputation was considerably higher than it had been the week after the Jay Bell trade. Rod Beaton reported that while the 1997 Pirates were clearly not that good, the team was sure to get better over the next few years. He pointed to prospects Ron Wright, Abraham Nunez, Craig Wilson, Jose Pett, Chad Hermansen, Aramis Ramirez, and Kris Benson. A month later Beaton would declare the Pirates the USA Today organization of the year.

On the last weekend of August, Kevin Polcovich, the rookie shortstop filling in for Kevin Elster, severely sprained his ankle. Bonifay acquired 34-year-old Shawon Dunston, in a conditional deal, on August 31. This pleased the players, who knew that, no matter how bad they were, they were only a few games out of first. And this pleased the fans, who were enjoying the seaon. The Bucs drew 1.7 million fans in 1997, well over the 1.2 million mark McClatchy proposed, at the start of the season, as the unlikely point at which the franchise would break even.

The Pirates finished the season five games out. The Braves swept a best-of-five division series from the Astros. Wayne Huizenga's Marlins won the World Series.

Bonifay devoted the first part of his off-season to protecting the organization from the evil expansion draft. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposed sales-tax increase for stadiums in November, but Pittsburgh politicians from both parties took seriously the possibility that McClatchy would exercise his mid-February option. The city would then have nine months to find a new owner or McClatchy could move the team. The odds of finding a new owner in such short period of time looked close to zero. With Pittsburgh fans eagerly awaiting the 1998 season, their politicians worked with unusual bipartisan cooperation to quickly find a way to fund the stadiums. Bob Smizik hailed the March solution as "the dawn of a glorious future in Pittsburgh sports."

No one hailed the 1998 Pirates as front-runners for the NL Central come March. Yet everyone remembered 1997 as evidence of what good can happen when team success is put before individual success. And no one predicted the Pirates would lose 100 games.

Bonifay stayed the course with the long-term rebuilding. The only player of significance signed in the 1997-1998 off-season was Mike Williams, who contributed fifty very good innings of middle relief while earning 350K. (He didn't close for the Pirates until 1999.) The Pirates wanted to re-sign Dunston, but he wanted $1M per year, so they let them him go. Jason Schmidt was re-signed to a three-year, $4.5M deal. That and other raises brought the payroll to $14M. Despite the higher payroll, in late March the 1998 Pirates projected to be younger than the 1997 Pirates.

Here are my questions.

So what are the lessons of 1997 that are relevant to 2005?

And how does the 1997 team compare to the 2005 team?

Here's your Baseball Reference link for the 1997 Pirates' final stats.

Game 62: Pirates at Yankees

Seven o'clock, Kip Wells and Mike Mussina. Big game for both teams, I think.

Mel Antonen on the Pirates

The USA Today reviews the 2005 season and team for the rest of the nation. Thanks, Brendan, for mentioning this in the comments.

On the Bucs' draft

Bryan Smith likes the Buccos draft class. I don't know the players we took, but drafting mainly college hitters is the way to go.

D'backs targeting Mesa

The Arizona Republic reports.

Tike Redman, Yankee

Fun column from Brian O'Neill.

Perrotto on McCutchen

Story here. Who are the other ballplayer poets? Miguel Batista and ...

McCutchen signs

That was quick.

No selling, maybe buying

Dejan Kovacevic covers David Littlefield's answer to the usual question of what he'll be doing toward the deadline.

You want to be on the market and you buy, even if the team is only at .500, if there's a great bargain. Teams will do ridiculous things in mid-July. You have to be prepared to take advantage.

Portland hearts Dave Littlefield

No kidding!

The ability to handle ticklish situations, to confront problems as they arise, and to maintain dignity for all involved are qualities that have served Littlefield well as he climbed baseball's ladder from Portland Little Leaguer to minor-league catcher to major-league executive.

Throw in a sharp mind, keen judge of talent and fierce competitive streak (often hidden behind a self-effacing manner) and you begin to understand why Littlefield, who turns 45 next week, holds one of the most prestigious jobs in professional baseball.

Happy Birthday, Dave.

Game 61: Devil Rays at Pirates

1:35pm. Take your brooms to the stadium. Mark Hendrickson, another lefty, and Josh Fogg. Mac will probably run out the exact same lineup, giving Lawton a nice three-day rest for New York and Boston.

The difference a day makes

The NL Central according to the BP playoff odds, my new favorite toy. Here's to the Yankees. May they pound the Cardinals again today.

saturday

NLC W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champs WildCd Playoffs
STL 39 21 .545 95.0 67.0 67.50156 14.64454 82.14610
CHC 32 27 .551 88.7 73.3 23.71137 23.78617 47.49754
PIT 29 30 .506 81.0 81.0 3.99308 6.89986 10.89294
MIL 28 32 .522 81.6 80.4 4.49698 7.82318 12.32016
HOU 24 35 .472 72.1 89.9 .23098 .54398 .77496
CIN 24 36 .444 68.7 93.3 .06554 .11895 .18449

sunday, after winning 18-2

NLC W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champs WildCd Playoffs
STL 39 22 .539 93.7 68.3 60.14086 15.53546 75.67632
CHC 33 27 .556 89.5 72.5 30.29267 21.18587 51.47853
PIT 30 30 .511 81.8 80.2 5.50215 7.11767 12.61982
MIL 28 33 .517 80.4 81.6 3.59357 4.97584 8.56941
HOU 25 35 .478 73.1 88.9 .36191 .59350 .95541
CIN 25 36 .450 69.8 92.2 .10889 .14961 .25851

Mark Madden: The Pirates are a bad team and that's just how it is

Brian in the comments reports:

Mark Madden is on right now, and he just said, 'The Pirates are on a good run but they are just what the Yankees need.. The Yankees are a good team and the Pirates are a bad team and that's just how it is.'

How 'bout that?

Game 60: Devil Rays at Pirates

Ed Eagle reports Freddy Sanchez will start today and tomorrow. I'm guessing he leads off. Lawton rests. Mackowiak plays center, Bay left. Restovich will probably start somewhere. Ward has struggled against lefties. Game on at seven. Scott Kazmir and Oliver Perez.

...Being five hundred is nothing to get excited about. It's how they've done it - how well they've played over the last five or six weeks. And how well they played yesterday.

I like nothing better than an 18-2 win.

Bot 1st: Pittsburgh
- J. Bay singled to left, F. Sanchez scored, R. Mackowiak to second
- D. Ward grounded out to first, R. Mackowiak scored, J. Bay to third, R. Doumit to second
- J. Castillo singled to right, J. Bay scored, R. Doumit to third

Bot 5th: Pittsburgh
- R. Doumit doubled to left, F. Sanchez scored, J. Bay to third
- D. Ward singled to left, J. Bay scored, R. Doumit to third
- J. Castillo homered to deep left, R. Doumit and D. Ward scored
- F. Sanchez singled to third, J. Wilson scored, O. Perez to second

Bot 6th: Pittsburgh
- J. Castillo singled to left, J. Bay scored, R. Doumit to third
- H. Cota singled to right center, R. Doumit scored, J. Castillo to third
- J. Wilson singled to right, J. Castillo scored, H. Cota to second

Top 7th: Tampa Bay
- D. Hollins singled to right, J. Lugo scored, A. Huff to second

Bot 7th: Pittsburgh
- D. Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, R. Mackowiak scored

Top 8th: Tampa Bay
- C. Crawford singled to left center, N. Green scored

Bot 8th: Pittsburgh
- R. Mackowiak singled to right, H. Cota scored, B. Hill to second
- M. Restovich singled to right, B. Hill scored, R. Mackowiak to third
- R. Doumit tripled to deep center, R. Mackowiak and M. Restovich scored
- D. Ward singled to right, R. Doumit scored

Poetry. I left in the Tampa Bay parts for balance.

Tike Redman is red hot

Dejan Kovacevic has the facts. Still, he won't start against the lefties today or tomorrow.

Jack Wilson and Mike Gonzalez

Jack Wilson has been great since moving down to the #8 spot. I'm in favor of trying other guys at the top of the lineup. If the team hits the skids, though, I'd bring him back up to number two.

Mike Gonzalez is not right physically and playing through it. Why?

Bobbleheads

Moustafa Ayad writes about bobblehead night. Fans want something; it's not hard to see why they attend games with giveaways.

Game 59: Devil Rays at Pirates

Seven o'clock. Decent chance of rain. Hideo Nomo and Mark Redman.

...Bucs pretty much unloaded on Nomo, he of the freaky delivery. Looks like hitters who haven't seen him go up and there and think WTF? Then they notice the pitches are pretty easy to whale. And they start whaling.

Rob Mackowiak's 2005 splits continue to fascinate me. He had a lousy April, but has an 833 or higher OPS against every team in the league except the Giants, the Padres, and the Marlins. The last two have great rotations. He has a 673 OPS as an outfielder. Does he not like playing the outfield, or is it some kind of distraction? If so, why? Does he spend too much time between innings getting advice about where to stand, and too little time watching the opposing pitcher? He has a 1302 OPS as a third baseman. These numbers are based on small numbers of at-bats, but they are dramatic, extreme, so probably meaningful.

Tonight Mackowiak hit third. He had two hits, the first with runners in scoring position. In the bottom of the fifth, the Rays intentionally walked him to pitch to Jason Bay. Bay tripled and broke the game open.

Both Redmans were great. Tike had a nice catch against the wall in centerfield, robbing some poor sap of a home run an extra base hit. He also tripled and scored three times. Mark Redman was never in much trouble. Carl Crawford singled to start the game, but Dave Ross threw him out. Crawford has sixteen steals and that was the third time he was caught. He's fast. The Bucs turned three double plays. They have Redman's back. Mark Redman must love playing in front of Mackowiak, Wilson, and Castillo.

All in all, a beautiful 7-2 victory for the Bucs. 27,000 fans left wondering how soon they could get back.

Me and my ice-cold Rolling Rock say all hail that.

...hey, lookit. Yankees went to St. Louis and the Cards put them down. Bucs 29-30, Yankees 29-31. Much will be made of the Bucs' schedule to date, which has been one of the easier ones, but guess what, the Yankees are right there with them in that department. Both have played teams with a cumulative .488 winning percentage.

This could be misleading. It's demonstrably and obviously false, that teams are consistently a certain amount of good. So that measure doesn't say how strong a team was when they played the Pirates or the Yankees; it says how strong they've been all year. Teams that have been playing the torrid Pirates may not appreciate getting credit for facing only a .483 team.

And the numbers could be read different ways. In the Pirates' case, for example, the low cumulative winning percentage of opponents has something to do with the Pirates breaking their will to compete. Surely. You play the Pirates and look bad, you know, that hurts, it breaks your will to compete. You didn't expect that; it rocks your world. You look in the mirror and see gray hair and spreading incompetence. No one will believe you, you think, when you tell them that the Pirates played good.

On the other hand, you play the Yankees and look good, maybe that has to give a team a charge. You are inspired to kick some more ass over the next week or two. Those numbers could be read a number of ways. That's all I'm saying.

10%

The Bucs are now at 28-30. The BP crew project 81 wins and a ten percent chance of making the playoffs.

Is this a championship team? Who cares. As Jesse Jackson used to say, the question is moot. In baseball, all you need to do is make the playoffs. Then you have a good chance, esp. if you have a pair of aces, of making the World Series. The question shouldn't be "is this a championship team," but "is this a playoff team?" The answer now is maybe.

Or probably not. One in ten is far short of fifty percent or more, the measure that defines "probable." But one-in-ten sure beats the Powerball. So it's not accurate to use words like "hopeless."

Small victories: we'll take them. If you buy into the theory that the Bucs, going forward, will be more like the May-June team than the April team, you might expect those chances to improve. I buy into that theory. (1) Tike Redman is now a fourth OF. (2) Ty Wigginton is in the minors. (3) Craig Wilson is not slumping as a cleanup hitter. (4) Jack Wilson is back to 2004 form after starting the year out of shape. (5) Oliver Perez is back to 2004 form (knock on wood) after starting the year out of shape. (6) Kip Wells has got on a roll. (7) Jose Castillo is off the DL. (8) Rob Mackowiak has shown improvement. (9) Daryle Ward has shown consistency. (10) Ryan Doumit is up and should do some catching. (11) Matt Lawton continues to play well with regular rest. (12) The bullpen has not imploded.

I could maybe come up with a list of reasons to expect the team to revert to the April version, but I doubt it would be as long.

How cool would it be for the Bucs to go into Yankee Stadium with a record that's better than the Yankees? The New Yorkers are 29-30 and play three games in St. Louis. The Bucs are 28-30 and host the Devil Rays for three games. Stranger things can happen. On one hand, you know the media attention would fire up the Yankees. On the other hand, it would give the lie to the bullshit economic determinism that justifies so much intellectual laziness among the less creative half of the baseball punditocracy. I'm not denying that payroll is not a big factor. I am denying that the correlation between salary and performance is not as strong as some people argue.

I won't get my hopes up, however. If this reads like so much breathless optimism, look closer. It's been a long time since the Pirates have been able to sustain a .550 clip for more than a few weeks. They bobbed along just under .500 for much of last year, and little good came of it.

Rosenthal on Wells

If both Zito and Astros righthander Roger Clemens stay put, Pirates righthander Kip Wells could become the focus of intense trade interest before July 31. But guess what? Wells might not be available, either.

The Pirates have won consecutive series against the Marlins, Braves and Orioles, moving into third place in the N.L. Central with a 28-30 record. Wells, 28, could help them attain their first winning season in 1992. The Pirates then could retain him in '06, though it would cost them at least $5 million in arbitration.

That money would be well-spent, even though the Pirates might land the young center fielder and/or third baseman they need for Wells, who has posted a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts. The Pirates have two starters at Class AAA who could be in next year's rotation--lefthander Zach Duke (10-3, 2.86) and righthander Ian Snell (9-0, 2.93). It would behoove the team to pair Wells and lefthander Oliver Perez at the top of the rotation to help ease the development of the younger starters.

Link here.

Winning as much as possible right now - today, tomorrow, next week, next month - is the most important thing for this franchise.

Trading Wells, Lawton, Mesa

The subject of Ed Eagle's mailbag. No doubt, this team needs another Jason Bay-caliber bat to compete with the Cardinals.

Pirate fiction

While we are on the subject of the theater and great literature, check out this collection of Pirate fiction.

Honus and Me

City Theatre has Bucco fever (scroll down, final play in 2005-2006 season).

Or something like it. Leeeny says she will buy everyone tickets.

Just kidding about that. Anyone blogging the City Theatre season? I can see the possibilities. Imagine attending "The Underpants" every night and commenting on the performance of the actors, actresses, and stage managers. ("For the love of God, when will Giles deliver more than 92.3% of his lines correctly? Why do they keep running him out there? Why do I watch this night after night? We need a petition to get Tracy Brigden fired!")

Someone must be doing that somewhere.

Pirate hitting, May 19 to June 8

It’s an off day, so let’s look at some numbers. I like three-week splits. In the habit of looking at them, they mean something to me. FWIW, I last did this on May 16.

In this three-week period of May 19 to June 8, the Bucs went 11-9 (and 2-5 in one-run games). They outscored their opponents 95-78 in that period. Much is made of the fact that the Bucs have played one of the league’s weakest schedules. Teams go up and down over the course of the season. During the last three-week stretch, the Bucs played Colorado, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Florida, Atlanta, and Baltimore. The Reds have made themselves a laughingstock with swaggering, stupid “shake-up” moves that only look good in the newspaper. But the Bucs caught them (and split a series) in the middle of the 7-for-11 streak that some hailed as evidence the Reds had turned it all around. The Cardinals swept the Pirates, but the Pirates played pretty well against them. If Reds played better than their record, the Braves were pouty and underperforming when they came to town. And so were the Orioles, who all know their franchise has the league’s worst interleague record. None of this should diminish the fact that the Pirates played .550 ball against a schedule that must rate average at least. Their play has been crisp and inspired the past three weeks. You have to play well to make another team look bad. I don't recall one game in this period that the Pirates just handed to the opponents -- something we often saw last year (and this past April). The Bucs are surely heading in the right direction.

• Rob Mackowiak paced the team with a torrid 61 plate appearances. His rates, .404 / .500 / .750, are obviously unsustainable and luck-aided. Let's not talk about luck, actually. Since fortune favors the brave, let's call it bravery. A guy who strikes out 15% of the time, as Mack did the last three weeks, should not be hitting .404. So what, all signs point to real and continued improvement. Last year he struck out 23% of the time; in the late April to mid-May period, he struck out 17% of the time. Even better is the walk rate. He walked in roughly 9% of his PA last year. In the past three weeks, he collected nine walks for a 15% rate. On May 16, I wondered where the power went; Mackowiak went upstairs and found it in the closet. His 21 hits included four doubles, one triple, and four home runs. To make a long story short, Rob Mackowiak is The Man. He's proof that anyone can make themselves into big-league superstar through pluck and ... er ... bravery. The clichés fail me. The man has made himself into a better player, year after year. If he can maintain this performance consistently, he's a bona fide superstar.
• Matt Lawton had some days off and has been studly. He's made great contact and his K and BB numbers suggest to me that the BA and OBP for this period are not bravery-related. The most impressive part of the stretch for him has been the power: six doubles, one triple, and four home runs.
• Jason Bay whiffed 20 times in his last 85 PA, which represents better contact for the free-swinging Canadian. He continues to drive half of his hits for extra bases, evidence to me that he's moving into the ranks of the elite hitters in the National League. Bay's batting average is pretty irrelevant considering his power and ability to work the count and draw walks.
• Daryle Ward continues to have the year I hoped from him. He's been consistently good. Don't let the recent, conspicuous struggles with men in scoring position mislead you. His fielding abilities are rough, sure, but he has done what a first baseman should do.
• Nothing is wrong with Jack Wilson. He's a star and he's back at the level he achieved in 2004. I'm proud to say I saw this coming.
• Tike Redman has been a singles machine. As a fourth outfielder, he's an asset. He's not going to hit .417 for a year but he's a much better bet to build an 800 OPS on singles than the high strikeout guys. Tike has four strikeouts and three walks in his last 51 plate appearances.
• Jose Castillo has cooled off considerably. In mid-May I guessed he'd finish the year around .275 / .325 / .440. He's now at .285 / .319 / .392. Have opposing pitchers made adjustments?
• Freddy Sanchez showed unusual power and/or speed and/or bravery with six doubles. They ran his line to .333 / .348 / .467. Expect Tike Redman numbers from Freddy; they are similar hitters. That will sound like heresy or foolishness to some of the team's critics, but it's true. Sanchez had three strikeouts and no walks in the last three weeks.
• David Ross has been David Ross; Humberto Cota has not shown his usual power; Ryan Doumit has barely got his feet wet.
• Wigginton's numbers are deceiving, as I wrote earlier this week. The argument that the Bucs sent him down "just as he found his stroke" is bullshit, the kind of thing someone would write if he did not have actual game-watching experience to contextualize them. I don't blame Wigginton for making that case himself. I'm sure he sees it that way.
• Restovich and Bobby Hill haven't played much. Both guys give us some good depth in case we lose another player to injury.

.NAME .TM .G PA ..BA. .OBP. .SLG. R+RBI
Mckwk PIT 17 61 0.404 0.500 0.750 32
Lawtn PIT 18 78 0.313 0.438 0.625 24
BayJa PIT 20 85 0.261 0.395 0.493 21
WardD PIT 18 73 0.279 0.397 0.508 22
WlsnJ PIT 20 77 0.329 0.342 0.500 12
Redmn PIT 17 51 0.417 0.442 0.542 15
Cstlo PIT 20 82 0.263 0.313 0.316 16
Snchz PIT 13 45 0.333 0.348 0.467 12
CotaH PIT 16 54 0.275 0.327 0.373 14
Wiggn PIT 08 24 0.273 0.333 0.727 10
Resto PIT 10 27 0.160 0.222 0.320 03
RossD PIT 10 26 0.200 0.259 0.240 03
HillB PIT 14 14 0.231 0.333 0.231 01
Doumt PIT 03 06 0.167 0.167 0.333 00

Mack and the lefty

Joe Rutter describes last night's game from that angle. Paul Meyer does the same for the PG, which also includes (scroll down) a nice photo of the sellout crowd.

All hail the Bucs

Two out of three from the best team in baseball. Last night was great, but give me more nights like tonight. To hell with comeback wins. Let's lead them all the way.

Day off tomorrow. Then, look out for the Devil Rays. You know they will kick our ass if the Bucs do much celebrating tonight and tomorrow.

Game 58: Orioles at Pirates

Kip Wells and Bruce Chen, seven o'clock. Hot, some chance of t-storms.

More on Day 1

Wilbur was up late, often typing "overdraft."

Day one of the draft

Ed Eagle has a recap.

Down five, come back to win

Doesn't often happen.

All hail Jack Wilson. And everybody else.

Game 57: Orioles at Pirates

Seven o'clock, some kid and Dave Williams.

Draft today

Here's a thread to discuss / predict how the Bucs pick 'em. I don't know enough about the talent pool to have an opinion. John Sickels' blog should be a good off-the-beaten path for analysis as it happens.

...Andrew McCutchen. Now we can start blaming Wilbur for any lousiness in the minors.

...Paul Meyer was on the McCutchen angle. What Meyer leaves unsaid is this. McCutchen's stock rose around the league after Wilbur Miller drafted him in Sickels' mock draft. Way to go, Wilbur, nearly costing us our boy.

On Wigginton

John Perrotto thinks Wigginton deserves a second chance.

The always-streaky guys make me nervous, I admit. I discount them compared to players who put up similar numbers day after day. I'd rather have a 20 home-run guy deliver the big knock once every eight games than 15 times in one month, three in another, and two in the other four months.

A red-hot player can carry a team for a week or two, as Wigginton did for the Mets last year, but a stone-cold player can really kill a team as well. So the prospect of intense production doesn't excite me unless it's consistent.

I'm also of the belief, and there may be no way to support this objectively, that the score of the game affects the difficulty of the game for some players. Kip Wells has said, in the past, that it's a lot easier to pitch when you are ahead. This makes perfect sense. And we see it all the time. With a big lead, a starter can just throw strikes - or batting practice, even - and not worry about the occasional home run. The corollary to this should be that it's easier or harder to hit in certain situations.

There was a time when all the young Excel guns distinguished themselves by pissing on the concept of "clutch hitting," but it's hard to follow one team day after day and not develop opinions, fair or not, of differing abilities to deliver in the clutch. Likewise there seem to me to be players who are adept at "piling on," that is, having a big game when everyone else is having a big game. Some guys need to underestimated to suceed. If I gave it more thought, I could probably come up with other categories of hitting. Maybe hitting with a huge lead or a huge deficit could be studied as "blowout hitting" or "exhibition hitting." Someone has probably thought of this already.

Wigginton hit well in limited platoon work in May but I wasn't impressed by the context of the hitting. But if you run through his game log you can see how he didn't contribute as much as the numbers suggest. This is especially clear if you look at his two big games.

He had three hits and homered in this 16-2 romp at Arizona on May 8. He was studly but we didn't need the second half of that studliness. In terms of how much his production actually contributed to wins and losses, you could pretty much wipe those numbers off his record. Or, at least, you could discount it considering the sad shape of the back half of Arizona's bullpen on that day. That three-hit day is like rushing for 100 yards in the second half of a blowout football game when the opposing D has quit. It's not the same as rushing for 100 yards in the second half of a playoff game.

Another one of his "big days" was May 25 against the Cardinals. No hits until the team is already down 6-0. For all I know, the Cardinals decided to give him some pitches to hit. If I'm Tony La Russa, and I see the other team has a 628 OPS third baseman, I suggest to Mark Mulder - with a 6-0 lead - that it might be smart to make him look good. This would increase the chance that he's still starting the next time the Cardinals play him.

Some players, I imagine, are too concerned with their ERA to participate in such shenanigans. We know for a fact, however, that others - often the "smartest" players - do engage in this kind of behavior. I remember reading an interview with Greg Maddux - or was it a Gammons love poem? - arguing that he'd never pitch a no-hitter because he's too eager to use such opportunities - pitching with a huge lead - to set up the next time he sees the opposing hitter. Maddux was known for pitching to players in some way that invited them to think they could get the better of this or that pitch the next time they saw him. So why wouldn't a team with a huge lead on the division - like the Cardinals - use those opportunities to pervert the other team's data set? I know I would do it.

So Wigginton had twelve hits in May. Three in the 16-2 win and three in the 11-5 loss.

I expected him to improve this year. It's not totally right to dump on a guy who just got demoted to the minors, and it's not exactly fair or scientific to isolate these games and say his hits were not as good as hits in a 1-0 squeaker. If we did that for all the players, though, we might come up with some interesting measures.

Still, those two performances were his only three-hit performances on the year. If he's going to live and die with the streaky, those three-hit games are real important in his case for more playing time. And if those games don't function, logically, as evidence capable of summing up his entire 2005 season, they do work metaphorically.

It was too little, too late with that guy. The thing that most impressed me about his few good games in May was the manager's reluctance to get excited about them. This team needs more consistent production from players holding down more than a platoon role.

Stats Geek: Ward, Mackowiak, Redman edition

Brian O'Neill looks at these guys. There was a period last year, about this time, when Mackowiak had posted a 900 OPS for a full year. He learns and gets better. Redman looks like a steal and Ward like a bargain.

To keep playing .550 ball the rest of the year, my sense is that they will need to find a thumper, and quick, or have one of these guys learn and get better. Maybe getting Craig Wilson back in Jim Thome mode would do it. With this pitching, I think a .525 rest-of-the-way, or a .512, is not out of the question. As I counted last week, a .525 has them above .500 to stay in mid-August. A .512 has them fluttering at .500 at the end of the season.

Below-average track record

In his AP report on the draft, Alan Robinson notes the Bucs have had a below-average track record with the draft under Littlefield. Has anyone done a study comparing all the different teams? The drafts have been disappointing for fans, OK, but is there an actual objective study comparing our drafts to those of other teams? What other teams have had bad drafts? Who has had good ones? By what criteria do we compare them?

I assume the study is out there. Anyone help me find it?

Game 56: Orioles at Pirates

Seven o'clock, Sidney Ponson and Josh Fogg. Let's get it on.

Game 55: Braves at Pirates

Welcome back, Ollie.

Hello Doumit

Later Ty.

Game 54: Braves at Pirates

Seven o'clock again. Kyle Davies, the young B+ pitching prospect, and Mark Redman.

No respect

The Braves dialed up the whining after the game. First Bobby Cox and Julio Franco blame the umpiring. Maybe it was a bad call, but it's fair to expect better from the old men. There's nine innings in the game.

Then Hudson disses Jose Castillo, a.k.a. "that guy."

"I get that guy (Castillo) out 19 out of 20 times," Hudson said. "He just got a good knock on it. I have to make a better pitch, that's all it is."

Yeah.

All hail Kip Wells.

Game 53: Braves at Pirates

Seven o'clock, Tim Hudson and Kip Wells.

Two outs, runner on second

In the recap of last night's game, McClendon offered this summary:

With the Marlins holding a 2-1 lead in the sixth, Damion Easley doubled with two outs and Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon opted to intentionally walk Alex Gonzalez to face Willis, who made the move backfire with a first-pitch RBI single to right field.

Luis Castillo followed with a single, giving the Marlins a 4-1 cushion.

"The sixth inning was the ballgame," McClendon said. "We have two outs and nobody on, and they end up scoring two runs. You make your own breaks and we just weren't able to do it tonight. You have to give Dontrelle credit. He made some quality pitches when he had to and pretty much shut us down."

Willis also doubled and scored in the eighth to notch his second multi-hit game this season and raise his career batting average to a respectable .220 (36-for-164).

Baseball Prospectus just published a study of these situations, where managers walk the number eight hitter to face the pitcher, by James Click. He concludes

in the average situation of eighth-place hitter and pitcher, walking the eighth-place batter makes the slightest bit of sense with men on second and third with two out and a man on third and two out, but not so with a man on second with two out or men on second and third with one out. Again, these differences are very, very slight, meaning teams are likely not doing wrong either way and the individual batters involved deserve high consideration. If a good hitting pitcher is coming up or the eighth-place hitter is someone like Matheny, walking the eighth-place hitter is probably not a good idea, but the converse is also true.

Both Gonzalez and Willis are better than your average eight-hitter and pitcher. With a left-hander on the mound, however, the difference between Gonzalez and Willis was magnified. Gonzalez, a right-handed hitter, has an 815 OPS with a 492 SLG the last three years against left-handers. In other words, were he a Pirate, maybe he bats fourth when we face a pitcher like Willis. Willis is a good hitting pitcher but, as a left-handed hitter, has not been effective against left-handers. Coming into tonight's game, he was two-for-37 against lefties. Clearly the difference between Gonzalez and Willis, against the lefty, looked huge.

McClendon probably saved the team a hypothetical tenth of a run with the decision to walk Gonzalez. The Marlins got two from the situation.

Baseball is like that.

Game 52: Marlins at Pirates

Seven o'clock, Dontrelle Willis and Dave Williams. Wigginton has five hits off Willis. Think we'll see him tonight?

To top .500

The Bucs would need to play .525 ball the rest of the year to finish with 82 wins. The early hole - they went eight wins under .500 - means that, should they play .525 ball the rest of the year, the odds are they won't get to .500 until sometime around Game 111.

They could do it the easy way, of course, and win four straight starting tonight. They could play .600 ball and finish the year like a 97-win team. Yep. The trend of things the last few years, though, has been to get hot enough to pull up a few games under .500, and then cool off to fall, say, eight under. It's pretty maddening if you pay much attention to it.

But, whatever. The easiest thing for the fan is to take one game at a time. They look good pounding the Marlins. I'd like to see them keep this roll going through the homestand and into New York and Boston. Winning, say, four of those six games would generate some fun momentum.

Draft preview

From Paul Meyer. Looks like Wilbur will play Littlefield in John Sickels' off-Broadway production.

Sanchez a starter for now

That news and more in Ed Eagle's notebook.

Game 51: Marlins at Pirates

Seven o'clock. Scuffy Moehler and Josh Fogg. Now we get to see for ourselves what Moehler has done to revive his career.

Today's Q & A

A lot of news, insight, and even some rant in today's Kovacevic Q & A. I don't read it so you don't have to; go see it for yourself.

Two things, though, that I'd highlight. One is ongoing disconnect between players and some fans on the issue of "patient." Kovacevic:

Of course, I share your view that being more selective at the plate would serve the hitters better. That applies to everyone.

Rob Mackowiak is a fine example, I think, of someone who has become much better at pitch recognition and is making the most of it. I had a long talk with him about it the other day, and the thrust of his point was that, in the past, he was looking merely to make contact. If it was a low-and-outside slider, he would try to get a bat on it just to see if he could. Now, he is laying off that slider. He is waiting for a pitch he can cream.

I asked him if this meant that he was more patient at the plate, and he bristled.

"Patient? No way," he said. "If I see a first-pitch fastball over the heart of the plate, believe me, I'm swinging that bat. I'm not more patient. I'm just smarter."

Uh, Rob, we call that patient, but maybe "smarter" is a better word. Patient doesn't mean passive. And it never has. Waiting because you like to wait is not patient.

The other news: Kovacevic says no way the Pirates deal Mark Redman. If they trade a pitcher - and everyone would have to stay healthy, I suspect, for that to make a whole lot of sense - they will trade Kip Wells or Josh Fogg. Of the two, I think Kip has made it more clear that he wants out of Pittsburgh.

Game 50: Marlins at Pirates

Seven o'clock. A.J. Burnett and Oliver Perez. Both these guys have struggled to pitch to their potential this year. I'd love another one-run win tonight. But of course, I'd much prefer a ten-run win.

Pirate defense

The Pirates are #2 in the National League at turning balls in play into outs. Numbers here, from Baseball Prospectus. (Defensive efficiency glossed here).

Apparently, this is more than luck. From BP basics article by James Click:

When analyzing defensive performance, the most important mental adjustment to make is to hold the defense accountable for every hit on balls that could have been fielded. Initially, this does not seem fair--defense and pitching are almost inseparably entangled. Determining if the causality lies with the pitcher or the fielders is even more perplexing than drawing conclusions about the play itself. This approach certainly requires some refinement, but it removes the decisions of the official scorer from the equation. Bill James suggested this approach in one of his Abstracts in the 1980s, calling the new metric "Defensive Efficiency (DE)." It is, quite simply, the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense. The best teams are usually around .7300 with the worst around .6900.

So the Bucs look good up there at .716.

They finished last year at 0.687; 2003, 0.693. So what the hell is going on here? Are all the soft-tossing lefties making life that much easier for the defense? Or are these guys (Wilson and Castillo aside) better than they seem?

Nothing wrong with Jack Wilson

Jack Wilson is fine. You start the year hitting .150, it's going to take several months, even if you hit .300, to get your batting average up to a good place.

On May 16 I analyzed the hitting performance of the second three-week period of the season. Looking at Jack I wrote, "all he needs now is a little luck. I expect he'll hit .275 the rest of the way."

In the last two weeks, Jack has hit .283 / .309 / .434. He's only had a few strikeouts in that period (3 in 53 at-bats). He's not going to hit for a lot of power or be an on-base machine (since there's little reason to pitch around him; he has little home-run power and his stature is not, shall we say, as intimidating as Adam Dunn). And he's probably not going to hit .400 for a month and raise the batting average dramatically. The odds are against that. So get over the low batting numbers, I say, and focus on the recent performance. He looks OK to me. I would keep running him out there with a day off here and there against the kinds of pitchers that really give him trouble.

If he keeps that strikeout rate at 5% or so, he's a fine contact hitter. He's qualified to hit near the top of the lineup if one believes, as some do, that a #2 hitter should be able to make contact on demand (for hit-and-runs, for example). He's not the perfect #2 hitter, but he remains a good contact guy with some power (actually, bravery hustle baserunning bravado foot speed: he legs out a good share of doubles and triples). With his defensive ability, he's an asset. Not a superstar, but not an inferior player, either. Bat him seventh or eighth if you can, but I don't think he's so inept with the bat that he needs to be benched or targeted for verbal abuse.

Unless a somewhat-muscular 740 OPS with excellent defense is not good enough, there's no good reason to call him out as part of the problem.

Stats Geeks does number two

Article here. I've also been thinking Mackowiak would make a good no. 2 hitter against righties. Then he's gone and shown some power in the last week, though, making me think No. 5 or No. 6 would also be good.

Hitting, not scoring

Dejan Kovacevic on the carnival of stranded runners. I agree with Mac, this is nothing to worry about. So long as they keep getting on base, sooner or later they will score in big bunches. The only worry is that they stop getting on base. Since I don't see too many Pirates putting up gaudy, unbelievable hitting numbers, I'm not concerned. It's strange to think that they played pretty good baseball but still went, with the help of many one-run losses, something like 3-8 at a stretch.

The legend of Freddy Sanchez

Chapter 3, Chapter 4.

So the Bucs are 1-0 so far on this tough stretch of 26 games.

Game 49: Marlins at Pirates

1:35pm, Al Leiter and Mark Redman.

Game 48: Pirates at Reds

1:15pm. Kip Wells and Brandon Claussen. Claussen is another one of the Reds' pitch-to-contact guys. Few Ks, fewer walks. Problem is (for the Reds, at least), hitters have managed about a 900 OPS on that contact. He's coming off one mediocre start against the Nationals that looks good compared to the string of awful starts preceding it.

Dejan reports that Mac said he'll use the same funky lineup he used yesterday. I'd like to see Wigginton continue to show how hot he can get when he's on a streak. All that has looked decent in his 2003 and 2004 final numbers came in short, intense bursts of productivity.

And how does Wigginton look at first base? Last January, I thought we might see him there. To some extent I buy into the argument that, as a converted second baseman, he ought to be at least decent at a corner, once he learns the position.

As good as he's been, Lawton needs regular rest. I like the idea of Sanchez as our lead-off man against left-handers.