David Gassko of THT tests Tom Verducci's "year-after effect" prediction that young (<26 yrs) pitchers with suddenly heavy work loads (more than 30 IP than previous year) break down the next year. Gassko's excellent analysis makes Verducci look wrong. But he seems to misread Verducci in closing with this cheap shot:
"Verducci cautions readers to watch out for big declines from Matt Cain, Gustavo Chacin, Zach Duke, Scott Kazmir, and Pat Maholm. I say draft them in your fantasy draft and get your hopes up! Except when it comes to Duke and Maholm—Pirates players are hopeless, no matter what the numbers say. "Verducci brought Duke and Maholm up as candidates for let-downs in 2006, not 2007, and there Verducci was right: both Duke (+44.1 IP from 2004 to 2005, resulted in +2.66 ERA rise in 2006) and Maholm (+98.1 IP, +2.58 ERA rise) regressed. To me it seems just as likely that Duke and Maholm's jackification was due to the hitters knowing what to expect, rather than tired arms. Regardless, Gassko's overall analysis seems to indicate that a heavy workload on a young pitcher isn't necessarily bad. If you're wondering, Matt Capps threw 80.2 IP in 2006, and 77.2 IP in 2005, so he wasn't as overused as it might have seemed.
No comments:
Post a Comment