The Chris Duffy lead-off experiment must end. The man is an out machine, and this hurts our young starters. The lineup must be devoted to getting an early lead. So leading off with Chris Duffy is the worst possible strategy, at this point in time.
Even when healthy, Duffy strikes out a lot for a guy with little power. In the minors, he K'd in about 17% of his plate appearances. This year, he's K'd about 26%. Last year, he only K'd 16% while hitting an obviously unsustainable .340.
Contact rate and batting average correlate. Batting average is not so important if the batter has power. If the batter has little power, batting average is important; singles make up much of the player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Without a high batting average, guys like Chris Duffy have little value.
Even if he's fully healthy, Chris Duffy is going to strike out, I'd guess, about 18% of the time. Maybe more. He averaged about 16% in the minors, and he's not done anything in 2006 to suggest he's close to improving that number in the big leagues.
Here are some low-power types with 18% K rates: Jay Bell, 1995 and 1996: .262 BA / ..336 OBP / .404 SLG and .250 / .323 / .391. Mike Benjamin, 2000: .270 / .313 / .391. Pat Meares, 2000: .240 / .305 / .381. Hank Foiles, 1959: .225 / .287 / .375.
What separates Duffy from these guys is speed. Players with average speed and an 18% K rate tend to hit in the .240s. I rattle off those names just to give you an idea of what I think should be a base projection for Duffy -- i.e., Duffy without his wheels.
Duffy's PECOTA forecast is .278 / .330 / .389. This is not good enough to be an effective lead-off man, unless it comes with dozens and dozens and dozens of steals. And PECOTA forecasts a 15% K rate, which strikes me, today, as too optimistic. Still, Duffy often hit .300 in the minors, so that .278 may be more doable than you'd think looking at the seasons of Pat Meares and Mike Benjamin.
What do the Pirates hope for with Chris Duffy? Is it Willy Taveras? He hit .291 / .325 / .341 last season, with 34 steals. Is it Omar Moreno? He struck out in 18% of his PAs in 1982--and stole 60 bases. Still, his overall numbers were .245 / .292 / .315. He scored only 82 runs -- despite 689 PAs -- and knocked in 44. That's not so good. In Moreno's best year, 1979, he scored 110 runs by stealing 77 bases and hitting .282 / .333 / .381, while striking out 14% of the time.
If that's the plan for Duffy, fine. Somehow teach him to halve the current level of strikeouts. Then run his ass ragged on the basepaths. OK. It's a longshot, but it's a plan.
The Pirates don't need to abandon this plan, but they should put the part where all this happens while he leads off against the weakest pitchers - that part - in the shredder.
The Bucs should move Duffy to the bottom of the lineup. Bat him eighth. He can develop his Omarness down there.
Should he continue to play? Sure, I think, if his defense is worth that much to the young starting pitchers.
Should he continue to lead off? No way.
To take better care of the young starters, I'd work harder to get them an early lead. No out machines may hit at the top of the lineup. Period. This 5-16 business means the team must take care of priority one.
Therefore, my new leadoff hitter would be Jack Wilson. For so long as he's caliente. Jason Bay hits second.
Pitchers say it's easier to pitch with a lead. We've seen some evidence of this the last two weeks. Without more early leads, the coaches will never see how these young guys pitch with a lead. And a starter can only be an ace -- a 15-game winner -- if he can pitch with a lead. And aces is priority one.
So bat Duffy eighth, if his defense is that good. Or start Nate McLouth and bat him sixth or seventh. He's not likely to develop sufficient Omarness. He's likely to out-hit Duffy, for sure, but not in a way that you want at the top of the lineup.
Make it Wilson, Bay, then the 20-homer K club.
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