Expecting improvement

One theme I've noticed in Kovacevic's pre-season preview writing is that we should not expect much improvement from the better players. This is true.

We also have to expect, however, two or three guys to come out of nowhere and surprise us. I can't name which three. Maybe Jose Bautista hits 40 bombs, or maybe Ian Snell finishes the year with 200 innings of 1.12 WHIP and 230 strikeouts. Likewise, Jason Bay could hit .230 with 9 home runs and Chris Duffy could hit a buck-fifty for the first two months of the season.

There are about forty to fifty players who could make an impact, and each player has at least a five percent chance of being, over the course of a season, a superhero. And at least a five percent chance of being a supergoat. Call it six percent for round numbers, and it's even money that three players wildly outperform your expectations (think Freddy Sanchez) and three players wildly underperform (think Oliver Perez).

Strange shit will happen. It always does. None of these young men are fixed quantities. Even Jack Wilson could go and have some kind of season at the plate which diverges from his amazingly consistent career.

It's trite to say expect the unexpected, sure. But sometimes trite is true.

My respect for the unexpected is one of the reasons I always project an 81-win season for the Pirates. The fact that I always expect an 81-win season is something that keeps me a fan. I've been genuinely dumbfounded by this streak of losing.

What I truly expect is this. One year, say this year, the Pirates will win 82 games. Expectations will be high for the next year, and they will disappoint and win 74 again. Then maybe they win 82 in the following year. The payroll stuff might have them averaging 78 wins year after year, but I expect enough deviation from that 78. We could see a 90 win team soon. Far stranger things happen every year.

Folks who blink and say there's no way that's happening are too snug in their certainties. Not much is so certain in pro sports. That's what makes it so engrossing.