So Preston Wilson is not the only CF-capable slugger still out there. Dejan Kovacevic and John Perrotto both report that Burnitz is the word. This Thursday, December 29 entry (scroll down) in Dan Szymborski's Transaction Oracle had me thinking Burnitz was signed with Baltimore.
As Szymborski notes so elegantly, Burnitz's career appears to be trending downward. As in, downward to an end, a stop, a cessation of effective plate appearing. He'll be 37 in 2006 and 38 in 2007. Projections are not kind for players at this age. Going into 2005, he was projected by Perrotto fave, Bill James, to hit .246 / .327 / .477 with 27 doubles and 31 homers in Colorado. James's book ranked Burnitz's injury risk as "high." Nate Silver projected .251 / .328 / .480 with 19 doubles and 22 home runs. If you think those projections were bad, wait to you see the ones for 2006. If you clicked on that last link, you've already seen Dan Szymborski's ZiPs projection.
Last year, Burnitz finished at .258 / .322 / .435 with 31 homers and 24 homers for Chicago. He outperformed the 2005 projections for the first half of the season, but he limped home, hitting only .237 / .300 / .387 in 2005's second half. I wish there was some evidence of an injury; then I could spin it Sean Casey-style. Instead it looks like he got old and feeble-sticked.
He's streaky, he strikes out a lot. He's Craig Wilson without the high-HBP on-base percentage. He hits for power. Like all teams, we need more of that. Assuming Craig Wilson has or will recover from the hand injuries of 2005, he will probably outhit Burnitz in 2006.
If you've done your your Pirates Sudoku, you know we need more PA in the outfield. A Burnitz signing would not influence Craig Wilson's final PA numbers so much as it limits the PA that appear to immediately fall to Nate McLouth. Right now I'm guessing that Burnitz and Craig Wilson both stand to see something in the 400-450 PA range. Burnitz would not replace Craig Wilson so much as he'd double the at-bats we can expect from a Craig Wilson-like hitter. That is a good thing--if Burnitz can hit that well at 37.
The fear with Burnitz is the projection, and the problem with the projection is the age. Nate Silver has his comparable players as Fred Lynn, Dave Henderson, Bill Nicholson, Hubie Brooks, Dale Long, Steve Finley, Ellis Burks, Donn Clendenon, Dale Murphy, Tino Martinez, Tony Perez, Ron Gant, George Foster, Graig Nettles, Doug DeCinces, Kirk Gibson, Joe Carter, Deron Johnson, Ben Oglivie, and Charlie Maxwell. Baseball-Reference sees Jay Buhner, Darryl Strawberry, Ron Gant, Reggie Sanders, David Justice, Bill Nicholson, Eric Davis, Frank Thomas, Ray Lankford, and Roy Sievers. That's good company, for sure, but we're only looking at the end of these careers. Of this group, the players who were still good at age 37 and 38 are modern ones. Reggie Sanders can still hit, but he managed only 350 PA last year, his 37 season. For the D'backs, Steve Finley had two full and solid seasons at 37 and 38. Ellis Burks, long-time Bones and Rowdy favorite, mashed at 37 for the 2002 Indians. A generation or so back, the great Tony Perez's 37 and 38 seasons looked much like Burnitz's 36 season. Graig Nettles remained league-average for his 37 and 38 seasons. Freddy Lynn managed 400 mediocre PA at age 37. The rest of the players on the list were done at 37.
Is Burnitz done? I don't know. That second half was not good. I suppose that, with their high salaries and advanced medical crap, today's players may age more gracefully than those of previous generations. I'm not sure I believe this, however; such arguments sound, to me, like naive progressivism. Maybe it's true. Maybe not. Either way, general trends in player aging will do very little to determine just how Jeromy Burnitz ages.
Burnitz or no Burnitz, the Pirates need an outfielder, someone who could conceivably play some CF. He may be the best available option. Until we see what rate and length Preston Wilson gets in his next contract, it will be difficult to know if Burnitz at two years and twelve million is a good idea. I would have traded Oliver Perez by now, but Littlefield wants to hold onto him another year. If we won't trade a player to get a player, we have to sign one of the available sluggers.
If Burnitz is healthy after the ASB, maybe the Pirates could trade him. I dunno. My guess is that Burnitz will be fine for the first half of 2005. At any moment, however, the earth could split and swallow him up. We could say that about all the players, sure. But Burnitz is not young enough to expect any quick or full recovery from whatever might be his next injury. Won't Burnitz take one year and eight million? I'd rather do that than have him on the books for six million in 2007.
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