The 2005 Broncos played excellent football at home. It's proverbial, I think, not to bet against the Broncos (or the Chiefs) at home. And a little peek at their 2005 home record shows they've more than supported that folk wisdom.
They got the thin air. They got the huge crowds. They got the winning tradition. They got the plush amenities that enfeeble the legs of visiting teams. (Iowa, don't paint the visiting locker room pink: make it plush. Let the enemy overindulge his appetite for comfort before the game. Fire up the mammoth Trojan-Horse-brand hot tub. Stock and unlock the minibars. Spice up the cable television offerings. Even the most grizzled enemy will be a little weak in the legs come game time. And worse for them, they'll be secretly grateful - and soft - for the hospitality.)
The Broncos wined, dined, and laid waste to San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, New England, Philadelphia, the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. This was a much tougher schedule than the one enjoyed by Peyton Manning's team. Note too that the Eagles had not yet self-destructed when they flew to Denver for week 8.
The Broncos won eight and covered six of those home games. They won five and covered four of the first five--and all five of those were like "games of the week." They earned a reputation for squandering big leads, but they finished the home games. So unlike the 2005 Colts, these Broncos have much recent experience playing the Big Game at home. And they did not let down in the others, either, covering two of the three games in which they were favored by two touchdowns. They are as good as it gets at home. Mike Tyson, not Bald Bull.
The Broncos should get four points for home field, not the usual three. And looking at measures like these, the Broncos should lay another point more.
So I think this should be Pittsburgh +5, not Pittsburgh +3. So I would lean Denver ATS for the value. And based on this alone, Denver must have - on paper - something like a 70% chance to win. That is not a prediction at this point. I have other ways of massaging the data. There are more bones to read.
Objectively, the odds are looking to me as about as long as they were against the Colts. Just as many people underestimated the Steelers' chances at Indy, so do many people overestimate their chances at Denver. This is not a 50-50 or 45-55 situation.
Subjectively, I still think the Steelers have yet to put all the parts together and play the game that wants to come out of them. But it's not impressive or noteworthy to say that a lifelong Steeler fan can imagine victory.
So no prediction, but so far the odds look grim and grimmer the more I look.
One last thing: a sidebar on the total. There's no clear pattern on the Denver totals. They went under mostly. Since the Steelers have often gone under on the road (see previous capping posts), I'm leaning toward the under here. But since the total is 41, I doubt there's much value in it as a wager. 20-10 is more likely than 30-20, but even 24-21 would go over. Odds are we'll see a low to average-scoring game.
This means we will see good defense from both teams. There will be plenty of punts. Field position will be as important as it ever is. The defense can regard a red-zone field goal as a small but real victory. Turnovers will cause as much irreparable harm as they ever do. Little mistakes will be magnified. Small leads will be difficult to overcome. Etc. etc. The usual stuff.
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