Right field

I understand the need to add a corner outfielder, and I'm not sure it's because upgrading that position will make the Pirates wild-card contenders.

The Pirates currently have a collection of unproven and unreliable players for center and right. Even if we love Craig Wilson and think the world of his ability as a hitter, it would not be prudent to expect more than 450 PAs from him. He has that injury thing. If we are going to say that about Sean Casey, it has to be said about Craig Wilson. I don't know much about his recent hand injuries, either. Are they Pat Mearesish? I don't know. Let's guess that he's fine, but likely to miss time with a back problem or another HBP dent, as usual. Or likely to slump very hard and need days off. So then a bright yet prudent forecast for Craiggers production is 450 PAs.

The Pirates will get about 2100 PAs from their outfielders in 2006 - about 700 per position. Jason Bay will soak up 650 in left. Center appears to be manned by Chris Duffy and Nate Dykstra McLouth. What are they good for? I hesitate to expect more than 500 PAs from any player who has never finished a 500 PA big-league season. If we guess they both will hit well enough to earn 450 PAs, which seems very sunny and not prudent to me, then with Bay the Pirates have (650+900) or 1550 PAs budgeted.

Sean Casey looks good for 550 PAs at first. The Bucs will need an additional 150 from other guys. Let's continue with the positive vibrations and assume that Eldred continues to press for big-league PT. Give him 100, a one-month cup of Joe or two fill-in appearances the length of a short DL trip. Give Craig Wilson the other 50.

So Craig Wilson would have about 400 PAs worth of a productive Craigger season in right field. With the 1550 portioned to Bay and the two centerfielding youngsters, the Pirates now have 1950 PAs. That gives the Pirates 150 more for . . .

Jody Gerut. Given his injury troubles and nasty platoon splits, I think it would be too optimistic to forecast more than 250 PAs for him in 2005.

Now the outfield looks full up, until we remember that the Pirates will need a DH (about 25 PA) and many PH appearances (about 250 PA). Doumit can soak up some pinch-hitting duties, and Freddy Sanchez can play the Bobby Hill/Noonie role. So right now the Pirates do not urgently need outfielders off the bench; having a surplus of 100 is probably OK from that perspective.

But, unless the Pirates add an outfielder capable of contributing 450 quality PAs, they are banking on (a) Craig Wilson being healthy and productive, (b) Chris Duffy staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, (c) Nate McLouth staying healthy and hitting well enough to keep a big-league job, and (d) Jody Gerut being useful off the bench.

Is that prudent? Is it wise? Chris Duffy finished last year strong. Tike Redman was also coming off a strong second half when he began his first season as the starting centerfielder. Remember Tony Alvarez? J.J. Davis? Are we so sure that Duffy and McLouth are more sure to succeed?

Should the Pirates lose any one of those four players, or should any one of those four players flop, who do we have in the minors worth the call? Are we as high on Rajai Davis as we are on Jose Bautista?

The Pirates need to add someone worth throwing into the OF mix. Then let the players compete for playing time, and play the best ones. Since they want to see what they got in Duffy and McLouth, and since they don't want to prevent Wilson or Gerut from contributing if and when he's able, the need looks, to me, to be more about finding someone who fits. They don't need to find a Joe Randa of right field.

The right-field situation is not so much about Craig Wilson and the Pirates' faith in his ability to be healthy and hit ball hard. I've grown tired of seeing the issue framed that way exclusively. The spokespeople for the team may be more comfortable singling him out or whatever, but this is not just about Craig Wilson. It's also about Duffy, McLouth, Gerut, Rajai Davis, and the odds that the Pirates have 1200 quality plate appearances - that's two full-time players - in that group.