Craig Wilson and 2006

So what do you think of him? Azibuck had a good rant in previous comments.

He's a .268 / .363 / .488 hitter in five seasons and 1750 PAs. He's 29 in 2006. Hits lefties much better than righties. Good OBP, but it's somewhat scary: he has a 162 walks in his career and 81 HBPs.

No doubt, right now, he's a big part of any chance the Pirates have in 2006. No doubt he'll play, probably a lot, for us. But are you comfortable depending on him for full-time duty in 2006? For 600 PAs?

I'm not. I don't know how you expect a player who leans into so many pitches to finish the season healthy. He managed 600 PAs in 2004, so maybe it can happen.

The main reason I'm not, however, is his freaky streakiness. For the first two months of 2004, he was all the best of Jim Thome. Then he followed that up with a 587 OPS in June. A bad Thome month - and he has had them - is like a 780 OPS. Craiggers' post-ASB numbers were .235 / .322 / .453. That's not bad, but that won't carry a team.

The killer for me was Wilson's performance last April. He hit .234 / .388 / .250 in what was one of the most disappointing months of Pirate baseball in the last so many disappointing years. He looked like the Tommy Maddox of clean-up hitters. More or less given command of the (weak) lineup, he wilted. He's not on Jason Bay's level.

When we sit around and talk about how the Pirates need another middle-of-the-order bat to compete next year, we're not forgetting about Craig Wilson. We'd be deluding ourselves, I think, if we regarded him as the overlooked answer to the clean-up spot.

And all the talk about Pirate fans not regarding Craiggers as a full-time player is so 2003. Even if we pencil him in as an everyday player, it would not be wise to regard him as a 650 PA everyday regular. He's not a good bet to play all 162 games; I don't think he has the track record to make that prediction sound.

He's a part of the middle of the lineup. Because of his platoon split, the likelihood of beanball injury, and the way he wore down in 2004, I say he's probably best regarded as a 400-450 PA part.

He's a valuable player, but his value is not so high that this team can afford to build everything around him. If the Bucs were stronger up the middle of the field, and if the Bucs had just acquired a 1000 OPS first baseman, then there wouldn't be so much urgency to find a 900 OPS, 650 PA player for 3B or RF. It's not Craig Wilson's fault, but his inadequacies are magnified by the general inadequacy of his teammates. He'd be more valuable on any team that could better afford to ride out his slumps and replace his convalescent time.

Wilson plays 1B and RF, two positions where it's more likely that the Pirates could find a better hitter. So all the talk about trading Craig Wilson to help fetch and make room for an upgrade makes sense to me.

Will we find that upgrade? Yes. As soon as the Red Sox trade Manny to us for Zach Duke.