Two outs, runner on second

In the recap of last night's game, McClendon offered this summary:

With the Marlins holding a 2-1 lead in the sixth, Damion Easley doubled with two outs and Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon opted to intentionally walk Alex Gonzalez to face Willis, who made the move backfire with a first-pitch RBI single to right field.

Luis Castillo followed with a single, giving the Marlins a 4-1 cushion.

"The sixth inning was the ballgame," McClendon said. "We have two outs and nobody on, and they end up scoring two runs. You make your own breaks and we just weren't able to do it tonight. You have to give Dontrelle credit. He made some quality pitches when he had to and pretty much shut us down."

Willis also doubled and scored in the eighth to notch his second multi-hit game this season and raise his career batting average to a respectable .220 (36-for-164).

Baseball Prospectus just published a study of these situations, where managers walk the number eight hitter to face the pitcher, by James Click. He concludes

in the average situation of eighth-place hitter and pitcher, walking the eighth-place batter makes the slightest bit of sense with men on second and third with two out and a man on third and two out, but not so with a man on second with two out or men on second and third with one out. Again, these differences are very, very slight, meaning teams are likely not doing wrong either way and the individual batters involved deserve high consideration. If a good hitting pitcher is coming up or the eighth-place hitter is someone like Matheny, walking the eighth-place hitter is probably not a good idea, but the converse is also true.

Both Gonzalez and Willis are better than your average eight-hitter and pitcher. With a left-hander on the mound, however, the difference between Gonzalez and Willis was magnified. Gonzalez, a right-handed hitter, has an 815 OPS with a 492 SLG the last three years against left-handers. In other words, were he a Pirate, maybe he bats fourth when we face a pitcher like Willis. Willis is a good hitting pitcher but, as a left-handed hitter, has not been effective against left-handers. Coming into tonight's game, he was two-for-37 against lefties. Clearly the difference between Gonzalez and Willis, against the lefty, looked huge.

McClendon probably saved the team a hypothetical tenth of a run with the decision to walk Gonzalez. The Marlins got two from the situation.

Baseball is like that.