Recent Pirates pitching

Here’s a snapshot of the Pirate pitching over the last three weeks.

name. G IP.. K. BB HR ..BA ..OBP ..SLG BABIP
Wells 4 24.3 20 12 1 0.234 0.362 0.327 0.309
Redmn 4 26.3 12 11 1 0.260 0.375 0.333 0.284
WmsDv 4 24.0 18 07 4 0.242 0.451 0.303 0.273
Perez 4 22.7 18 15 6 0.294 0.576 0.402 0.300
FoggJ 2 09.0 03 05 2 0.349 0.605 0.417 0.374
White 7 10.0 04 03 0 0.167 0.200 0.265 0.175
Gonzz 5 06.7 05 03 0 0.143 0.190 0.250 0.184
MesaJ 7 07.0 08 02 0 0.240 0.320 0.286 0.349
Grabw 6 06.3 05 03 0 0.227 0.273 0.320 0.287
Vogel 5 08.7 02 06 0 0.324 0.378 0.419 0.355
Meadw 6 06.0 04 04 0 0.393 0.500 0.469 0.468
Trres 7 08.0 01 02 3 0.300 0.767 0.364 0.222

Wells, Redman, and Dave Williams were solid, overall, in the last four starts. None of these guys pitched as well as any of the Cardinal starters, but they pitched better than all the Cubs starters.

Wells didn’t walk as many people as I remember him walking. He walked 11% of the hitters he faced, which was average. Redman may have been a little lucky in those four starts. Since he’s a soft-tosser, it’s no surprise to see his strikeout numbers so low. He walked at about the same rate as Kip.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This will vary much like batting average, but somewhat above it. Starters who throw 120 innings will finish the year with a BABIP between the .240s and the .340s. The latest thinking on the subject of BABIP is that pitchers exert some control over it, but it still appears to be 93% luck. (Go to Baseball Prospectus and search the archives for “BABIP.” Read what Nate Silver and Clay Davenport have written on the subject this spring.) Last year Redman posted a .308 BABIP. Right now he’s at .284. There may be some luck involved here, but I think he can sustain this level of excellence, low strikeout totals aside. His solid performance does not appear to be the result of some huge dose of luck. The same goes for Dave Williams. Williams gave up more home runs but he compensated for that with a pretty stingy walk rate. All three of these guys – Wells, Redman, and Williams – have been good and I don’t see any reason to think they won’t keep it up.

Oliver Perez was awful. Six homers and fifteen walks in 23 innings? That’s bad. Opposing hitters have posted a 978 OPS against him. I can’t stress enough how bad that is. He has faced 100 different hitters over the last three weeks. On average, they hit at rates that are comparable to Scott Rolen’s or Jim Thome’s 2004 numbers. One of his last four starts was a gem. In the other three he allowed twenty-one hits and thirteen walks in fifteen innings. Don’t tell me the bad start was the fault of G. Ogden Nutting when the team’s “ace” came back this “prepared” to lead to the team to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll return to his 2004 form. Or maybe not. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him scuffle like this through the All-Star Break. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him throw another gem tonight.

The bullpen was solid enough. White won’t maintain those rates all year, but Mike Gonzalez might. Even if he didn’t get much in the way of breaks, Brian Meadows was not good. Grabow looks much better this year. Hopefully Torres regains his form soon.

All in all, the situation looks good to me, with Ollie as the wildcard.