Bad news travels like wildfire

Great question at the end of Ed Eagle's weekly mailbag:

I think that the media has a big part in not allowing the Bucs to perform to the best of their abilities. I mean, when you've got "experts" always talking down the team's chances, the players may have a hard time believing in themselves. What do you think? -- Jacob W., DeFuniak Springs, Fla.

As much as players and coaches tend to deny that they read or listen to what is being said about them in the media, most of them can tell you who wrote or said what and when they wrote or said it. Players are only human, after all, and the bad press has to get old for these guys.

That being said, I highly doubt that these kinds of predictions negatively influence the confidence or performance of the players. As competitive athletes, it inspires them to prove their critics wrong.

When it all comes down to it, the predictions we media-types make don't mean a thing. The players will determine their fates as winners or losers on the diamond.

Here's my take on this. The negativity is pretty mind-numbing. Some of it is rational, wise, well-considered. But at least half of it is not. I doubt it affects the players much in April or May, but there's no doubt in my mind that it encourages the old second-half swoon.

Because the real worry, for me, is not the players. I worry about the fans. No one can be wheedled into the ballpark. Not at today's prices. My guess is that many fans give the Pirates a chance in April. The conventional wisdom is pretty much all bad: the players can't hit, the pitchers get hurt, the manager is a moron, the "real" owner is Emperor Palpatine. If the team's performance on the field conforms, a lot of potential fans will take (another) season off. There are other ways to spend your dough.

The whole losing thing can rapidly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The players may not be affected by the bad press, but the fans surely are. And when the fans don't come to support a May team with a .450 winning percentage, then the bitterness sets in. Players notice how the house is packed in Houston but half-empty in Pittsburgh. They will say that this does not hurt their play, but it surely does hurt their play: when the house is packed and the fans are cheering like crazy and having a good time, that provides a real boost to the players. Or so they will tell us.

Of course crowd size matters. The Astros were selling tickets half-way through the 2004 season because the fans trusted they'd play better. Pretty much everyone loses interest in the Pirates come football season for the same reason. It's a chicken-and-egg thing: the Bucs won't win consistently until they sell out more consistently. The fans won't come to the park until the Bucs win consistently. Twelve years of losing has put them in this bind.

The Bucs talk about not having much room for error. I generally agree. It's April, the season is young, everyone wants the Pirates to do well. The season pretty much hinges on a strong start.