Picking winners

Hobby horse time. I'll put two Rowdy principles to test here.

Principle one: Sports are, fundamentally, levelling, democratic, egalitarian, all that good flag-waving All-American stuff. As Americans, we love sports. We even feel a certain national pride in the sporting soap operas we revere for diversion.

I maintain there's more parity in the Major Leagues than most baseball pundits want to believe. I suspect this has something to do with the way the whole country has been trending Aristocratical. When people write about money and baseball, I often think they are writing about This, Our Glorious New Gilded Age. When they bitch, I wonder if they are left out. When they gloat, I wonder if they like the view from their perch.

Levelling often characterizes the Story of Baseball. (Some people call this Regression to the Mean, but whatever.)

The great, they will be brought low. The meek, they will inherit first place.

I say all the teams are more or less looking at 78-84 wins on Opening Day. Some teams will deal talent for promises in July and August. Some teams will acquire talent. So there is a tendency for the good to get better and the bad to get worse.

As always, losing begets losing. Winning begets winning.

In the end, the teams will fan out and finish clustered in the 71 to 91 win range, with a team or two around 61 and a team or two around 101. If you think poor teams don't finish last, go look up the 2004 New York Mets, who won fewer games than our scrappy Pirates.

Principal two: gamblers mainly bet on winners, on "sure things." For this reason, longshots and perennial losers represent your best gambling bargains. Remember Smarty Jones.

Now open this link: 2005 MLB OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS.

I'll bet a virtual Ben Franklin against the following teams making their over/unders: New York-A (101.5), Boston (97), St. Louis (92), Angels (91.5), Cubs (88 current). These teams are overhyped by the gloaters. The lowly and the cowardly fear them overmuch. The company men toe their line.

I'll bet more virtual Franklins on these teams beating their over/unders: KC (64), Colorado (67.5), Brew Crew (68.5), Nationals (69.5), Toronto (70), Arizona (70.5) our Pirates (73), Seattle (76). I'd love to bet on the Reds, but their pitching sucks and, with the new ownership, they'll probably tear down and trade a bunch of Wily Mos. New ownership is not always a good thing, people. The Devil Rays have too much losing inertia as a franchise for my support. Perhaps if I paid more attention to them I could believe.

If I'm counting straight, that's thirteen virtual gambles. Wish me luck. And play along, if you care, in the comments.