Ryan Vogelsong = winner

Today at least. Huzza! Huzza! Get me another beer.

I had some deep thoughts about Ryan Vogelsong while I sat in the car and waited several hours for little Rowdietta to wake up from her much-needed nap in the car seat. (I had the game on the radio.)

First of all, everyone's going to holler and burst blood vessels over the offseason about how bad he was in 2004.

Second of all, like Jack Wilson, he had an unusual rookie year in that the Pirates, as they do, started him on day one and stuck with him the rest of the year. He didn't lose 20 games but Vogelsong was good enough to stay in the rotation for almost the entire year. The Bucs were unusually patient with him. He'll have unusually bad numbers when the year is over. There won't be many precedents, I fear, and he'll look bad when compared to the few there are. But he's not as bad as his numbers suggest. Most teams wouldn't let him hang around long enough to rack up such numbers, and, as with the 20-game losers, he has enough stuff to make us think he could get better and be good.

Third of all, he's never going to be great. I think Brett Tomko is his ceiling. More and more he reminds me of Tomko. He'll be around and in the league for awhile.

I won't be surprised if the Pirates bring him back for another full year in 2005. He's dirt cheap and this year, he's been durable. That said, if they can stick him in Nashville, they can sleep at night knowing that they gave him a full year to show his upside and that upside was something you'd love to have at Nashville provided that you could put five other guys in the opening day rotation. Vogelsong looks like a great sixth starter with room to improve and definitely the potential to string together a few good weeks or even a very good half-season. He'll never be an ace, I think, but he should be useful and I bet he'll be in the league for longer than most expect.

I'm rooting for him.