Sunday, July 23, 2006

Other things are happening

Nick Cafardo wrote this master's thesis on the current trade market for the Boston Globe. It suggests that lots of things are happening. If Wily Mo Pena becomes available for a starting pitcher, I would think that our "small-market GM" would be inquiring. Not to say that this is DL:

One GM of a small-market NL team said, ``When you're a big-market team, you can trade a pitcher like Arroyo because you can always replace him. I'm not saying you snap your fingers and it happens, but you can deal or you can sign a guy, take on a bigger contract, whereas a small-market team like ours, if you have a reasonably priced starting pitcher, you hold on to him for as long as you can."

But it could be.

The Red Sox and other high-profile perennial contenders probably control the pace of trading more than the Pirates right now, so if you are truly jonesing to calculate the odds that certain players become Pirates, you might do well to study the news on other teams, making your best effort to separate the credible reports from the less confident and more speculative.

Ken Rosenthal is another daily if not hourly source, at this point in the season, for mind-altering trade rumors.

O'Dowd will wait

In an earlier thread, Jason5280 comments on this Denver Post report by Troy E. Renck. Dan O'Dowd will wait until the deadline to make his best deal for Shealy. Regardless of their position in the playoff race, provided that Helton has not suffered a career-threatening injury, the Rockies will surely trade Shealy if he can become a minor-league free agent at the end of the season. (Correct me if that's wrong....)

... that must be wrong. I have to not believe everything I read. Looked up the various stuff about the reserve clause. It's clear. If Shealy's on the Rockies' 40-man roster, he can't get minor-league free agency. From what I can find, Rule 5 says minor-league free agency is an option for players who have been with an organization for six years (not counting the draft year) and are not on the 40-man roster. 2002 was Shealy's first pro year, but this wouldn't count since it was the year he was drafted. He hasn't been with the organization that long, and the Rox should not have any trouble keeping him on the 40-man roster if needed.

Matt Capps

What is the obsession with Matt Capps? There Rob Rossi reports that he is off-limits in trade talks. I don't understand how one young relief prospect could have some remarkably higher potential than another young relief prospect.

Matt Capps looks destined for greatness, yes, but c'mon, a great relief pitcher throws about 70 innings in 62 appearances.

Jim Edmonds in centerfield

Speaking of fatigue, how does Jose Bautista bounce back from last night's game?

On fatigue

Game logs could be used to measure the effect of rest on performance, if we knew for certain that players rested on days they did not play. The more I think on this, the more I think it's likely that rest will always remain an unknown factor to statistical analysis. One advantage young people have over old people is the ability to sleep. Guys in their early 20s can sleep twelve, fourteen hours a night, no problem. Guys closer to 40 find this harder to accomplish. A father, regardless of age, with a young one will be up many times in the night. Some people do not sleep well in hotel rooms. Others can, but they cannot resist the nightlife. Byung-Hyun Kim, when he came up as a 20-year-old, slept most every non-playing moment of the 2000 season. Other guys use their days off to kill large animals and carry them up stairs. Toward the end of the season, we know a large group of players are suffering from the sleep-affecting side effects of regular stimulant use. So it's likely that some players get more rest in the sixteen hours after a game than others get in the next forty-eight hours.

Someone could generate splits for various players, and that might suggest that they have done better or worse with more or less time off between at-bats, but we could not be sure that this was isolating fatigue as a variable.

Smizik: not poor, just stupid

Bob Smizik makes the case for incompetence.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

Game 99: Pirates at Marlins

Six o'clock. Light rain at four, rain forecast all night, but this doesn't look any different than the last two days.

Kip Wells and Ricky Nolasco, a 23-year-old right-hander that lefties devour.

Randa and Burnitz off the bench

Joe Randa has been a great bench player, so the Pirates would do well to keep him. They need to practice winning if they are ever going to win, and there is no time like the present for winning.

The assumption seems to be that you don't pay bench players big money, and Randa makes big money, so of course the Pirates must trade him.

This puts the cart before the horse. Randa's contract is a done deal. Now that he's lost his starting job, it's time to find some use for him which maximizes his value. Not to get a return on the investment of his salary, but to get a contribution toward a winning team. And Randa has shown he can do this.

Perhaps you don't sign him to that salary with the intention of using him in a part-time role. I only half agree with that thinking. It's not my money so I wouldn't care; if I can get the walls for cheap, I'll spend extra on the decorative windows. The point is to make the best team you can make, and that is not the same thing as maximizing the value you get for your payroll dollars at every single position.

If I was the GM and I was put on a specific budget, I would spend that whole budget every year. I'd stock the team with as many young pre-arb guys as possible, and I'd make all these guys starters. Fatigue is not as much of an issue with them, and they stand to develop more rapidly with the playing time. Then I'd spend whatever I have left on veteran players to come off the bench and (this is important) look good doing so.

I would take two or three bench spots and make them cozy sinecures for 300 home run guys who clearly can't cut it on a daily basis any more. I would invest those positions with honor and dignity, which means a lot of money.

Look at Randa's splits. He has a 1057 OPS in 27 July at-bats. He's been a lousy pinch-hitter (2 for 11), but he's been very productive starting every third day.

As with the case of Jeromy Burnitz and Sean Casey, was this not predictable? I was impressed with the potential of rotating Burnitz, Casey, and Craig Wilson through two starting spots. Too bad I underestimated the team's capacity to screw up that potential. All three of those guys have been better in less than full time work. And does that not make sense? One is old, and one is "injury-prone" which I guess means not "a tissue problem," as Will Carroll suggests, but a fatigue problem (are injuries not more common when a player is tired?). The third is lumbering. The abilities of these players clearly diminishes once they cross a certain threshold or concentration of PT over time. Of course those guys, to a man, would disagree; if I weighed 400 pounds, I'd still insist I could run relays with a 22-year-old shortsop if I wanted to.

If I'm the GM or the manager, I don't let the players tell me when they need their PT cut back--I let their performance do that. I don't go out to the mound and say, "Pedro, you looked gassed. Can you get this guy out?" I say, "Pedro, you did good today. Now go take a shower, you smell bad." Everyone plays only with a full charge in their battery, and it is performance, not the players's piehole, which tells us how charged they are. If an older guy or a thicker guy or a distracted guy is slumping, I assume he needs some time off. And I don't mean one day game after a night game--I mean, he starts every other day for a week or two.

The Luis Gonzalez story and the better-known Shea Hillenbrand story suggest that players have this idea that it's some great insult to not start on any given day. That's just wrong. I would take that out of them. There's more than one template for a winning baseball team. If the Pirates work very hard to mainly start young, pre-arb players, they ought to be able to save enough payroll that they can pay more than anyone for bench players--and still have a lower overall payroll (if that's necessary).

The other thing that happens when you wear out the old guys, or force them into a situation where they must take all kinds of uppers on a daily basis to "get up" for another game, is that you embarrass them. Jim Tracy has humiliated Jeromy Burnitz this year. Burnitz's career might be over, he's been laid so low. And once they are embarrassed, they are in no position to provide the wise counsel or coaching or mentoring everyone expects they might impart to the younger players.

If the Pirates had hired Jeromy Burnitz for pinch-hitting in clutch situations, and for starting two or three times a week, then I have no doubt that Burnitz would be the proud owner of decent stats. And he could be playing the role of the crusty grizzled old sailor who gets off his ass only to deliver a big hit or have a big day. Instead, he's now in a position where he's clearly been a liability and a prime cause of the team's one-in-three winning percentage. He's embarrassed; he's humiliated; he's exactly what the young players do not want to be when they grow up.

Burnitz and Randa should be welcome the rest of the year--in roles that are reduced to the point that they are effective when summoned for duty. Sean Casey would be a better player, with better stats and, I would guess, more good influence on the younger players, if only Tracy more often started Craig Wilson at first.

No San Fran for Sean Casey

The AP reports that the Giants acquired Shea Hillenbrand to play first base.

No young relief pitchers for you

The Tribune-Review says the Pirates are giving the cold shoulder to Colorado's trade demands.

The Red Sox, late entries into the Shealy fox chase, will audition another young left-handed starter.

Maholm's .394 OBP

Wow. Read to the bottom.

Four walks in twelve innings

Who would have guessed it's ... Kip Wells.

Steroids saved baseball?

This is not right. The internet saved baseball, if it ever needed saving. All hail the internet.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Game 98: Pirates at Marlins

Paul Maholm and Scott Olsen at seven-thirty today. 95% humidity in Opa Locka, Florida. You might want to make some alternative plans for drinking-room entertainment this evening.

... Quickly, more reading material for this Friday afternoon. Wilbur has a list of potential Rule V losses here. Jason5280 comments on this piece, which suggests the Rockies would send Shealy to Boston so Boston can make a trade that helps San Diego, one of the Rockies' three rivals in the West. Kevin Blackistone of WFFA in Texas says the the Pirates are still interested in Pumpkinhead.

... still more linkage: Rosenthal embarrasses himself a little bit with this breathless oracle performance ("To beat the Mets — and really, that's what this discussion boils down to — the Cardinals need to either acquire a starting pitcher such as Lieber or a reliever such as the Pirates' Roberto Hernandez." ???) Jim Molony focusses on the Randa situation. Randa will help the team off the bench for the duration, so I'm hoping he stays. The young starters must practice their winning, and I think Randa would be a help. SI does their usual cut-n-paste. These things are good to look at. They remind us how interconnected all these trades might be. Even if the Rockies and Pirates are making moon eyes at one another, it's possible that a third (and/or a fifth and sixth) team is holding up a deal by promising a better offer once this or that other thing gets worked out. If all the Rox are doing is dealing Shealy, it could be that they wait until the deadline for some better offer from Boston that maybe never materializes. Fun story here about child-GM Jim Bowden. The Nats could hold up everyone with two players (Soriano, Livan H.) perhaps topping the wish list of contending teams. I'm not sure who this person is, but George Von Benko summarizes trade news here.

...so are they going to get this game done tonight? I sure hope so ... five of seven has me looking forward to it.

Burnitz as PH

Jeromy Burnitz is 4-for-12 with three home runs and a walk this year, when pinch-hitting.

Craig Wilson vs. Aaron Guiel

"Yankee Insider" Jim Baumbach reports for Newsday that Littlefield wants too much prospect for Craig Wilson. Baumbach continues:

The Yankees also have to wonder how much of an upgrade Wilson would be over Aaron Guiel, who has impressed Torre with his heads-up play thus far.

Hmmm ... let's see ... Craig Wilson ... 29 years old ... 1831 career at-bats ... .269 / .361 / .489. Aaron Guiel ... 33 years old ... 902 career at-bats ... .246 / .321 / .414. Pretty close! Practically the same, in fact.

There's no difference there that is not erased by some impressive heads-up play.

Craiggers is no Alfonso Soriano or Bobby Abreu, to be sure, but he's at least as useful as Reggie Sanders at this point.

What the Rockies want

Dejan Kovacevic reports in his notebook:

Colorado's desired return for first baseman Ryan Shealy -- a player the Pirates have discussed with the Rockies -- is a young middle reliever.

So, what are we waiting for? How many days could it take to iron the letters on the back of a jersey?

If the young man does not already own a black suit with gold pinstripes, shame on him; that's no reason to hold up an announcement.

P.S. Don't call it a rumor.

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Bucs win

Five wins in seven games since the ASB. Not everything about the lineup makes a whole lot of sense these days, but who needs sense when you have victories.

Game 97: Pirates at Marlins

67% humidity right now on Dan Marino Blvd. Ian Snell and rookie winner Josh Johnson in an hour.

... This is half a day old, but something to talk about:

ROCKIES SCOUTING JAYS

Art Pontarelli, of the Colorado Rockies was scouting the Jays last night. The Jays and Rockies have been talking about first baseman Ryan Shealy, a DH-type slugger, since before the break. Colorado turned down an offer for lefty reliever Scott Schoeneweis this week.

The Rockies are looking for young players like pitcher Brandon League.

That's Mike Rutsey and Bob Elliott for the Toronto Sun. Scott Schoeneweis!

With so many trades to make, DL has to start somewhere. If all the Rockies want is one young left-handed pitcher, and a reliever will do, they should make their choice, the two teams close the deal, and the Pirates move on and build around that deal.

Seriously, if the spastic Mike Gonzalez could play first base and could outslug our other options, who wouldn't be all about converting him to that position?

PNC Park threatens to leave Pittsburgh

Another scoop from the Onion.

PITTSBURGH—After five years of serving Pittsburgh as their state-of-the-art sporting facility, PNC Park, the home of the rundown, poorly maintained Pirates, said Tuesday it is threatening to leave Pittsburgh unless a new team can be built within the next three years.

"I love the city of Pittsburgh, but the Pirates are an old, dilapidated club built from other teams' spare parts, and its very foundation is rotting away," the stadium said to reporters assembled in its press box. "I had every intention to stay here for the duration of my career as a ballpark, but given that I haven't seen any realistic long-term plans for improving my resident team's ramshackle condition, I would be lying if I said I wasn't thinking about taking my services elsewhere."

San Antonio must be a likely suitor for our stadium.

(All hail Dan of Primer for the link.)