exhibition: D'Rays at Pirates

1pm. Will we face Wiggy?

... speaking of the D-Rays, looks like they have signed Manny Stiles.

Bucs win

Finally. Armas, McLeary, Kolb, Marte, and Sharpless combine for a four-hitter in today's 5-2 win. Eldred was jackless.

Eldred in the outfield?

He says he can do it in today's notebook from you guessed it, Dejan Kovacevic.

Home runs are very good things. If he continues to have good at-bats all spring, he has to make the team.

Should Sanchez play second?

Dejan Kovacevic presents both sides.

I vote yes.

Freddy hurt

Take-out slide took him out.

... oh, nevermind, he's OK. He rubbed some dirt on it.

79

Don Spagnolo offers this tribute for Deadspin.

Priority guys

Dejan Kovacevic on Walker, McCutchen, and Bixler.

Now pinch-hitting, Brad Eldred?

Interesting Q+A from Dejan today.

In response to Wilbur's question about whether the team really needs a bench utility infielder in addition to Bautista/Castillo, Dejan unveils his bench: Bautista, McLouth, Matos, Doumit, and ... Eldred. Dejan says Eldred "surely" will be traded and a bench spot would showcase his moon shot skills, which he's already established at AAA. Would Eldred be more likely to increase his already low trade value by playing everyday at AAA to try to develop better plate discipline and/or learn how to hit off speed stuff better, or by playing off the bench in the bigs, hitting moon shots into the river every now and then?

Nady, Castillo OK

Dejan Kovacevic reports the great news for Nady's GI tract (viral infection not chronic disorder) and Castillo's ankle/foot (feels fine, apparently won't require expensive X-ray technology).

Also from Dejan, Kuwata dazzles, Tracy says Kuwata "exemplified everything we've been talking about," Chacon's arthritic knee feels good, not great, and Burnett rebounded in the B-game.

Reid Nichols turns around the Brewers farm system

I don't have the patience to read this long interview with the guy who turned around the Brewers' farm system, but I'd say the Pirates could probably learn a thing or two from it.

Exhibition: Reds at Pirates

Just dialed up the Lanny. Game is in the second. Someone got touched for two runs in the top of the first.

... Lanny says that David Littlefield said Castillo's ankle looks much better today.

... Jose Hernandez just had a nice at-bat against Homer Bailey, who could not locate his breaking stuff and wound up grooving fastballs. End result: double, two RBIs.

... Yoslan Herrera cannot get an out in the fifth. Next Alan Simpson cannot find the plate.

Defensive dissertation

Dejan Kovacevic obviously put a lot of work into this one.

They tear down moldy buildings

Robert Dvorchak returns to the PG Pirates page with this epic.

Queen Anne's Revenge

Pirate story, nyar.

Castillo hurt

According to the Trib, Jose Castillo sprained his foot today sliding into second and left the game. Bucs lost to the Yanks, 4-3. Eldred took Mussina deep.

UPDATE (5:00 PM): Dejan reports that "Tracy said a bone near the front of the foot was tender and that, if that remained the case tomorrow, X-rays will be taken". Why not give him an X-ray today?

Snell impressive

Bucs lose, but not before Snell shows off the improved slider. Funny typo/slip/joke? in Dejan's notebook on Snell and Armas starting strong:

Manager Jim Tracy called the combined work of Snell and Tracy "very impressive."

Pat at WHYGAVS liveblogged his viewing of the game, and wasn't impressed with Armas. Anyone who watched the game have any comments on Armas, Snell, or anything else?

PPR #19

Pirates Roundtable #19 features six answers to two questions: one on the bullpen, and one on the bench. For the second question, I mention six guys (Jose H., Jose C./B., Doumit, Cota, McLouth, and Matos) for five bench spots. Someone has to go. I'd bet Cota. If Jose H. never/very rarely starts, he'll be free to be the emergency catcher. The idea at the end of the distracting gimmick being eyepatches and parrots was all Leeeny.

exhibition: Pirates at Braves

The Pirates' official site schedule says this one will be on ESPN.

Dejan Kovacevic interviews Gonzo here.

Steelers cut Porter

Ed Bouchette describes the move. Note to self: Do not threaten to boycott training camp during the transition from old boss to new boss.

The top 100 prospects

The Pirates have a few on Baseball America's list: McCutchen (#13), Lincoln (#69), Walker (#74). Lillibridge, the guys the Braves got with Gonzo for LaRoche, comes in at #93.

Game on: Reds at Pirates

The Reds and Pirates will play some exhibition ball in an hour. This will be on WPGB (danger: auto-loading Lanny at this link), and this will be on Gameday audio.

... two home runs from Luis Matos. Who knew? I can hear it now. Opening day: now starting in right field ... "Slugger" Matos.

Deserving it

A week or so ago, Jack Wilson made some comments about wanting to win for the fans. Because, he said, the fans deserve to see the Pirates win. At the time I thought that was charming and somewhat commonplace. But the comment has rattled about in the back of my head. Something about it struck me as not right.

I can't speak for all the fans. I can't speak for anyone but myself. But I feel included when people talk about fans enduring the massive losing streaks of the last twenty years.

I don't feel that I deserve anything from the Pirates. The players, the owners, the coaches, etc., they do not owe me. There is no debt to be paid. I have taken the entertainment offered by Pirates baseball, as much and as little as I want, on my own terms. It is mine. I made it from their pathetic to mediocre performances. And much of this fun has been at the team's expense.

So I am very sure of this. I do not deserve to see the Pirates win 90 games.

That said, I want the Pirates to win 90 games.

I want it. I must have it. I will have it. One of these days it will happen.

In the meantime, if I don't get it, I will find some way to amuse myself. That's more or less what I have been doing with the blog all along.

Perfect innings

Cuban defector Yoslan Herrera pitched two perfect innings in the Pirates' 8-1 exhibition-opening rout of Manatee Community College today at McKechnie Field. Herrera, pitching competitively for the first time since 2005, started and struck out two while facing the minimum six batters.

It is good to read about perfect innings.

Shawn Chacon, bionic man

Dejan Kovacevic, something about Jim Colborn, we can rebuild him, better, stronger, faster.

How Ian Snell rolls

Ian Snell describes his favorite car in this Trib diary.

Check it out.

The man can do no wrong. He does a lot of work on the car himself. "When you get oil and grease on your hands, it's the hardest thing to get off," he says. "Before spring training I was working on my turbo, and it took me about three weeks to get some oil off my hands."

Intersquad action

They played some baseball today.

Brad Eldred hit a two-run home run in his first at-bat off Sean Burnett, a blast off the roof of the clubhouse beyond left-center field. Nate McLouth hit a three-run home run off Shane Youman. Luis Matos made two fine defensive plays in the outfield, including throwing out Andrew McCutchen at the plate when McCutchen tried to score from second on a single.

Neil Walker made no errors in his first game at third base since converting from catcher.

Burnett started but failed to make it through an inning, running up 28 pitches and giving up four consecutive hits before the half-inning was called off.

That's Dejan Kovacevic reporting for the Post-Gazette.

Young starter throws 28 pitches and fails to make it out of the first inning! It's exhilarating. I'm kinda drunk just thinking about it.

$2.3M paid for baseball card

Nice! Congratulations to the new owner.

Nutting speaks

Dejan Kovacevic records some player comments about a twenty-minute speech by Bob Nutting.

None of the players used the phrase "fish tale" when describing the speech.

Sanchez at third, Castillo at second

Dejan Kovacevic has a vibe.

Stats Geek

Jason Bay is good.

Backup catcher

Dejan Kovacevic handicaps the very exciting race to be backup catcher. As expected, the extent to which Doumit will be used elsewhere more or less guarantees the team will carry a third catcher.

Snell

... is on track to start on Opening Day, Dejan Kovacevic reports.

The same report says Walker looks good at third. Perhaps this is why Sanchez has been studying second.

Sanchez at second

The Sporting News runs with this AP article.

With Nady slowed, I wonder if we won't see Bautista in right and Castillo at third on Opening Day.

Adjustment period

Rob Biertempfel writes about the "adjustment period" experienced last year.

The adjustment period carried over into the regular season, hampered perhaps by the Pirates' 30-60 start.

The "adjustment period" or "transition period" talk annoys me because it's just an excuse. Whenever there is an ownership change or a managerial change, this excuse will be handy. And excuses are much too tempting for professional athletes and coaches. These people are not so hardy any more. They are soft. Put an excuse within reach, and they will grab it.

There's no excusing the historically bad start. It is possible that the coaches and the team will learn from it. It is not likely they will repeat it. They were that bad.

I understand the need to put a good spin on the end of the season. Everything depends on selling tickets. And it's not deceitful to point out that the team's record in the second half was not bad. I sympathize with Tracy and Littlefield and everyone else who wants to talk pretty about 2007. I hope they sell a lot of tickets. I know I will be buying some.

But I think it's cowardly to say anything less than, "I made mistakes. We made mistakes. We screwed up." And it would be refreshing to say, "We made so many mistakes, we can't be sure exactly which ones caused such losing of epic proportions." The team's owner, for better or worse, has confidence in the manager, the general manager, and the players on the 40-man roster. That's all they need--his confidence. They are not politicians. The people will not vote to keep one or the other before the season begins. If I was partly responsible for the horror of 2006, and people were asking me those questions about "What happened," I'd say, "We did not win games. Obviously, I made a bunch of mistakes. There is plenty of blame to go around when there is so much failure but obviously, when there is that much losing at the start of the season, obviously I made a bunch of mistakes. That said, I am working as hard as I can to not make those same mistakes. I talk to people all the time about those mistakes. I am gathering what I think to be very good advice about those mistakes. I will not make them twice. And I think I know what we need to do to win games. I have a plan for success in 2007. And I am grateful that I still have a job and the oppportunity to execute that plan."

That's the speech I would write.

Meanwhile, when they blame the team's first-half failure - their complete, consistent, and thorough failure - on the turbulence of an "adjustment period," it does not make me, a regular-old, lifelong fan of the team, any more confident in their ability to pull themselves together and win many ballgames in April.

Blogger for hire

Manny Stiles will do anything for charity. Reads to me like he really wants to cover the Yankees.

Peace in the Middle East

That and other things in Dejan Kovacevic's Sunday notebook.

Also note that McCutchen is Mr. Talent.

Nady

Xavier Nady will be tested for Crohn's disease on Monday, the PG reports. Nady's cousin has Crohn's disease, raising the odds that Nady might. Crohn's disease, also known as inflammatory bowel disease, is an autoimmune disease that results in chronic intestinal inflammation. Nady should still be able to play, but this would be real bad news. We wish X and his gut the best and hope for a quick return to health.

How were you able to get your bat on the ball?

Kovacevic reports a funny:

Because Sanchez made contact with one of the six pitches he saw from Kuwata, he was peppered with 10 minutes of questioning by the Japanese media. "How were you able to get your bat on the ball?" one reporter asked in English.

I would have played it cool. "I do not know." Then maybe I would do some Kurt Warner-style Jesus hogging.

Sanchez on second, Matos probably making team

These and other tidbits from Dejan Kovacevic. I am happy to learn, too, that Nady is out of the hospital. Get well, Mr. X.

It does not matter what Castillo looks like in camp. He was awful at second last year. And Sanchez won a batting crown. The team should settle the best players into the toughest positions they can handle. The remaining players can compete for the other spots.

Roundtable

New roundtable up today.

First day of spring

Dejan Kovacevic soaks up the Florida sunshine.

It appears the Pirates might be moving Freddy Sanchez to second base. If he can play that position well, he should. There's little chance of him growing out of it. While I worry a bit that he's more likely to be injured playing second, that can't be a reason to use overgrown or inadequate people at second. Castillo may be slimmer this spring, but I'd guess he's likely to outgrow second again. If not this year, maybe next.

Promise of Snell

Mike Henry of the Brandenton Herald on "fussles", tough love, and The Promise of Snell.

Another day

Not a lot of interesting news out there. Not much to do but wait.

The double play

Stats Geek quotes John Dewan and Baseball Prospectus.

Some Monday updates

Dejan Kovacevic has some news from spring training. Chacon has arthritis and will pitch through pain. Herrera has performed well, with poise. Bautista can play shortstop. He also reported early, with Chris Duffy. In another article, Eldred is compared to Ryan Shealy. I'm still a little bitter about that one so I will say, watch what Ryan Shealy does this year before expecting the Pirates to get much for Eldred at the deadline. Doumit will make the team, but no one is sure what his role will be. I still expect he'll get good PA starting behind Paulino, LaRoche, and Nady. Time will tell.

Kuwata not big

Tomoo Ota for the Daily Yomiuri. If Kuwata has as much guile and poise as reported, I am thinking he might be useful in a Doug Jones-like bullpen role.

Big man

Dejan Kovacevic answers our questions about Paulino's defense.

Now pinch-bunting

This MLB.com report has me expecting Kuwata! to make the team.

He sounds like a man among boys.

Lincoln, Gerut, and Herrera

Two spring training notebooks from Dejan Kovacevic today. One deals with Lincoln and Walker. On Lincoln's elbow :

"All that is known is that there is a strained muscle in the forearm which might or might not be a sign of underlying ligament damage."

A more specific diagnosis than "irritation in the elbow" as initially described, one that could either be devastating or no big deal.

The other reports that Jody Gerut:

"...took the field once with a trainer but left soon thereafter."

Being accompanied by a trainer while simply taking the field can't be a good sign. I'm assuming Gerut jogged out (with trainer watching/spotting him), rather than Gerut being carried or wheeled out by trainer. Regardless, get well, Jody - we could use your LH bat.

The best news from today seems to be this, from this same notebook:

"Herrera was throwing a combination curve-slider that had observers buzzing."

Lincoln hurt, Walker now 3B

Bad news out of the first real day of spring training. Brad Lincoln has been shut down with an irritated elbow, the AP reports. The only other pitcher revealed to be injured on Day 1 of ST is recently acquired minor-league starter Michael Tejera, out because of shoulder pain.

The other big news is Neil Walker is officially trading in his tools of ignorance for a 3B glove.

"He'll no longer be catching," Littlefield said. "We made the decision based on his athleticism and the fact that, as we look at our organization, Neil has a lot of potential with the bat, and we think this is a quicker way for him to get to Pittsburgh."

Walker's value goes down a lot not catching. Is this move more about Paulino viewed as a fixture or Neil's mitt?

Better

John Perrotto.

Big, powerful-looking medium man

Dejan Kovacevic on Castillo's body fat.

Kuwatamania

Pitchers and catchers report today. Dejan is in Bradenton, where Masumi Kuwata is the main attraction for the Bucs. Kuwata enters as #9 on the starter depth chart. He could "throw strikes as a third-grader while blindfolded" and once "a gust of wind blew his 5-foot-9 frame off the mound for a balk". Although unable to find a video link of either of these events, this 9 minute Japanese video shows highlights of Kuwata's last outing with the Giants.

Roundtable # 15

New Pirates roundtable up, featuring one outsider per other NL Central team all predicting the Bucs will finish in last place.

Winter storm

Not much else is happening. Stay warm.

Comments off

So far as I can tell, this is a haloscan issue. We have email - honestwagner at yahoo dot com - if you care to send letters. Thanks.

... comments on again. This on-and-off commenting might persist a few days while Haloscan works out whatever is going wrong for them.

All hail Michel Therrien

Dave Molinari profiles the coach.

All hail Dave H.

No more gallon of white space--archive issued fixed. Thank you Dave!

the Winning carryover

Bones had a long comment on Dejan Kovacevic's recent Tracy interview. He has his issues with Tracy, and I have mine.

I don't blame Tracy for emphasizing the positive. I do blame him for the horrible start to the 2006 season. At the end of April, they were 12 games under .500. At the All-Star Break, they were 30 games under .500.

Tracy talks about carrying over "the winning." What winning? There was no winning.

I do not have cold, hard statistics to support this next opinion: I think it is easier to play .500 ball if you spot the competition 30 games. After the team established itself as a laughingstock of historic distinction, the competition more brazenly scheduled around the Pirates in a way that improved the Pirates' chance of splitting a series. Ace starters took an extra day of rest to skip the series and save up for the Mets. Ailing position players sat out the series to rest their balky knees for the Cardinals. A team that is 30 games under .500 does not bring out the best in their opponents. So the second-half record does not impress me.

Now hey, any win is a good time. I enjoyed a lot of those 67 wins. What's not a good time, though, is looking for the improvement in the standings and finding the Pirates 16 to 30 games under .500.

And the extra kick in the groin was the eight-game losing streak in September. The Pirates faced a string of playoff-bound or playoff-bubble teams, who were all ready to rip their faces off. The Pirates responded not as the mythical .500 team of the second half but as Tracy's first-half team of astounding losing streaks.

So Tracy can say we need to keep chopping wood, we need to keep pounding the rock, we need to execute the fundamentals, etc., etc., but I want him to say we need to win games, we need to win games, we need to win games. When you take care of the little things, you take care of the little things. You do not win games, magically, by taking care of the little things. You win games by scoring more runs; you win games by winning games. This much is obvious.

And further, wins only have much meaning in the context of a winning record. So the Pirates need to establish and maintain a winning record. That, above all, must be the goal for 2007. Continuous improvement, executing fundamentals, having a family atmosphere in the clubhouse, all that is nonsense next to the need to win games and keep winning games.

As you can tell, I am impatient already for April.

Benson hurt

There was a time when I thought Benson would be an ace for many years.

Pirates must run the ball

Now I get Tracy's "pounding the rock" talk ... the Pirates are going to run the ball, Steeler style! All hail that.

This is the best suggestion I've heard since Bones invented the Wiggy wheel.

Site stuff

Things were bloggered this morning with the comments -- not sure if anyone noticed or not. Because we are old school, Haloscan manages our comments. Somehow Blogger comments got enabled (not that there is anything wrong with them) and apparently small hell broke loose.

Pat raises a question about our permalinks of dubious performance. Yah, we often get a lot of white space above single posts (or small archive pages). We do not know why. We are not IT people. We have never been able to figure out why Blogger formats such pages with the text centered, vertically, in the left side. (For example.) If anyone can see the cause in the HTML, we'd love a hint. In the meantime we'll rationalize said white space as our attempt to reach only determined readers.

Please use this thread for any other suggestions you might have about our stone-age blog.

... 6:40pm comments are blinking on and off all day. Not sure what's happening. We don't have much time to work on the site today - tomorrow we'll fix it if the problem does not solve itself.

Tracy pounds rock

You know what? I'm not going to single out Tracy or get into a big dissertation about him. He's not going to be any different from anybody else. That's all.

Dejan's classic interview provides a fresh glimpse into the festering madness of Jim Tracy.

"... you keep pounding the rock, keep making it clear that, hey, this is the way we're going to play. This is a formula that we feel has been very successful for us as a staff with other teams."

When asked why continue to stress the second half given the overall record, Jim essentially answers: "my style ... is the best." Jim wastes no time trying to personally take credit for the second half lucky streak of mediocre baseball. Tracy, as usual, also doesn't miss a chance to try to take credit for being surrounded with talent in LA.

On Jack calling out Castillo:

If you've got something that you need to talk to a teammate about -- like some of those comments that made it into print -- I just feel like those are things that can be handled behind closed doors. As you know, that's how I've handled a number of things in the past year.

I guess Dejan put him on the spot, but Jim basically calls out Jack for calling out Castillo then unfavorably compares Jack to Jim (on pedestal, and who doesn't do that kind of stuff)? "As you know..."? Wouldn't Dejan or anyone not know if it was really handled behind closed doors? My memory of last year, which might not be accurate, features Tracy regularly criticizing, often inexplicably, whoever he felt wasn't playing as hard as Jose Hernandez or Mike Edwards.

The most memorable Tracyese quote for me, one that I marveled over, re-reading again and again, trying to comprehend, was the one Azibuck modified, to plead with Jim, to please make sense:

If Jim Tracy realizes one thing, that all we're looking for is for him to meet us, as fans, halfway, and if he did that, I know this: He's a couple adjustments away on the English language side, of being the kind of speaker that makes sense once in a while.

Linkage

Made some changes to the sidebar.

Cory from ANPG and Randy from Buried Treasure have teamed up at Pittsburgh Lumber Co. Randy has been examining the Downfall of the Fam-A-Lee, and Cory has been previewing the division and getting busy with Retrosheet, so check it out if you haven't yet. The Pirates Roundtable has also moved over there and looks to be updated twice a week from here on out.

Pirates blog The Dock Ellis Experience is back. New Pirates blog links include 82, Bucs Trade Winds, and Wait 'Til Next Year.

Other added links: Pirates/Steelers blog Pie's Reviews, Cleveland/Steelers (?!) blog The POJO Dojo, other baseball blogs: Mop Up Duty, Beyond the Boxscore, U.S.S. Mariner, Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball, Cards blog Viva El Birdos, and two Braves blogs, Home of the Braves and Talking Chop (so we can better follow Craig Wilson).

The order of some of the links is now different with football links moved down.

Ten things

Dejan Kovacevic summarizes the remaining mysteries.

Paulino's defense

Is Ronny Paulino a good-fielding backstop, an average-fielding backstop, or a below-average fielding backstop? He appears to have a reputation for good and a reputation for bad. I wonder what's your opinion . . .

Starters seven through nine

In his Q & A, Dejan Kovacevic catches us up on Burnett (ready to pitch), Van Benschoten (maybe ready to pitch), and Bullington (has not pitched since late 2005).

2007 playing time estimates for Pirates, a.k.a. the Pirates sudoku

Non-pitcher Pirates enjoy about 5715 plate appearances each season. Recently they tend to be distributed, from an average high of 699 PA to an average low of 652 PA, along the positions in this order: CF, SS, LF, RF, 1B, 3B, C, 2B. You people will recognize that pattern as the typical McClendon/Tracy lineup.

Here are the players now on the 40-man roster with PA estimates by moi.

In center I see Duffy, Bautista, and McLouth getting time. At short, Wilson and Sanchez. In left, Bay and Bautista. In right, Nady, Doumit, Bautista, and McLouth. At first, LaRoche and Doumit. At third and second, Sanchez and Castillo, with Bautista backing up at third and Sanchez backing up at second. Catching, Paulino with Cota on Sundays. McLouth, Gerut, Cota, Rajai D., Eldred, and Doumit get some to a smidge of PT from a bench-like miscellaneous category which brings the YTD non-pitching PA total to 5715.

Here are the totals, in descending order, from most to least PA. Wilson and Bay, 650. Sanchez 600. Castillo and LaRoche, 550. Paulino and Duffy, 500. Bautista, 450 350. Nady, 425. Doumit, 350 250. Cota, 200. Jose Hernandez, 200. McLouth, 190. Gerut, 50. Eldred and Rajai D., 25.

Any surprises there for you? I will amend or defend whatever estimates you question in the comments.

... later ... updated to include 200 PA for Jose Hernandez. This is why the Jose Hernadez signing depresses people. You know he's going to play. He would be good insurance for the insurance. He would fine as a backup to Bautista and Doumit, the two guys who have less PT so Jose can get his 200 PA. But you know he won't back them up. So the team pours valuable playing time into this old veteran and willfully blocks the developing of two somewhat promising younger players.

If Jose Hernandez (and Danny Kolb, for that matter) are truly going to bring much in the way of "veteran leadership" and/or "intangibles," then hire them as coaches. I will acknowledge that some of the players gave credit to Jose Mesa - a similar signing - for teaching them how to be relievers. It could be the case that players like this have an unseen benefit for helping younger players to better realize their potential. But for every Mesa signing, there's at least one Burnitz signing. Or so it seems.

Armas geekery

Stats Geek cheers the Armas signing. All that looks right to me. This is a concern of mine, the need for a long line of starters, as you see, say, here.

Looking at that post, it's curious that Burnett and Van Benschoten are stuck in the same place on the depth chart. Three years later, they are still #7 starters.

Bill Hall makes a lot of money

I found the news of the Bill Hall contract shocking.

And I've long been a fan of Hall, as this March 2004 post illustrates.

Has anyone done of study of these arbitration-and-beyond contracts? The odds that the Brewers get "a good deal" on Hall probably do not outweigh the odds that (a) unable to play often (because of injury) or (B) that he regresses to something like cheap-replacement level. I say probably. I do not know.

the Kolb signing

It's just a minor-league contract, yes, but can you see the Pirates not carrying him on Opening Day - even if he's not pitching well in March?

I can't. So I'm not persuaded the contract makes much difference in any evaluation of the signing.

Big, powerful-looking big man in right, hitting fifth

The PG has this bit of news about the Carribbean World Series.

Kolb signed

He gets a minor-league deal. Huh.

Danny Kolb

DK reports the Pirates have shown interest. This is a pretty bad idea, unless Torres has some kind of secret injury. Or unless the Pirates are ready to deal a reliever or two once they have insurance in place.

It's a bad idea not because he'd be a waste of money, but because this grizzled veteran would command playing time. And that playing time would be better invested in younger pitchers. The Pirates have quite a few, and I have confidence in the ones they have.

My guess is DL thinks he can sign Kolb now and then flip him for a quality prospect mid-season or at the trading deadline. This works in a perfect world. This world is not perfect. These plans have not worked out the last few years. Odds are, Kolb will be mediocre to bad for the Pirates and no one will want him to trade for him at the price DL will demand.

Super Bowl prediction thread

Bears win, 24-21. The score does not reflect the true nature of the game, which is a Bears blowout. Late in the game, the Colts have the ball after scoring last. The score is 24-14 and it could be a game if they can score again. Manning throws an interception. In desperation, Dungy throws the red flag. The zebras huddle up and rule no interception. The stunned Bears let the Colts score two plays later but hold on to win.

What is your prediction?

La Lob

LaRoche knows the eephus, the Trib reports. His pop was an expert.

As small men, Bones and I had a book called (I think) "Strange but True Sports Stories." The section on the eephus was a favorite. The pitch was part of my repertoire back when I started every day, Japanese-style, in the neighborhood wiffle ball season.

Tony Armas Jr.

So the Pirates signed Armas Jr. today for one year with a club mutual option for a second year. Armas is relatively young for a free agent (28). He should be good for 150 innings.

This is a good low-risk signing with upside. We hope the other guys will pitch well enough (and stay healthy enough) to make Armas unnecessary. But you never know.

Now the lame hand of the gang of four can work as the fifth starter, and Chacon can start the season as a swing man or as a AAA starter. That's how I'd play the cards.

DK reports $3.5M for one year or $8M for two years. That is a good contract for the Pirates.

... 2/2 6:30am ... D. Kovacevic reports Armas has been hired for the job I more or less just described. It was not hard to predict:

Earlier this month, the Pirates retained Shawn Chacon with a one-year deal worth $3.8 million. And their plan, as general manager Dave Littlefield confirmed last night, is to use spring training to determine which of those two [Armas or Chacon] -- and, possibly, Shane Youman or Marty McLeary -- will start and which will work in long relief.

Burnett, Van Benschoten, and Bullington should start as often as they can, on a regular starter's schedule, either in Pittsburgh or in the minors. Chacon and Armas you do not demote; one or both can do the Terry Mullholland swing-man job.

It's no surprise or crime that the fifth starters will make eight or nine times more money than the front four. Salary is primarily about service time and secondarily about performance.

The competition

In a recent Q&A, Dejan Kovacevic expresses his skepticism about the quality of the NL Central competition. I'm with him there. This is one of the reasons I always expect the Pirates to win half their games: I am not impressed by the other teams in the division. Sooner or later, their stupidities will catch up to them, and the Pirates will gain from that.

Arbitration cases

John Perrotto runs them down. Any predictions?

The 650

So who leads the Pirates in PA in 2007? Bay's an obvious choice. Who else might reach 650 plate appearances? I'd guess Wilson and that's it. Adam LaRoche looks like a 550 PA guy to me, unless he's been getting minor-league at-bats the last few years. I have to look into that.

This is an important early step in doing your Pirates sudoku. Now that the team is more or less settled, it's time to do this.

It's my hunch that plenty of PT will fall to Castillo, Bautista, Nady, and Jose Hernandez. I can see all three of those guys getting all the PT they can handle.

FWIW, in that December 2005 link I predicted 6050 PA for the Pirates in 2006. They finished with we could call it 6106 (5558 AB, 459 BB, 89 (!) HBP).

new Blogger

So we moved from the old Blogger to the new Blogger, and I see the navbar, uh, that thing at the top, is back. And first we did not have it on. Then we had to have it for awhile, and then we had the option to take it off. We took it off. We took it all off.

Right now, it appears we're back to the days of navbar-that-must-be-obeyed. Once upon a time we had a few AdSense ads on the site. We made so much money we had to stop with the AdSense. (FWIW, new Blogger loves AdSense.) When we were making money on the ads, it made sense to have the Blogger ad up at the top. All hail Blogger!

Then we took the ads off the site. And this not being a commercial site, I thought it appropriate to not have a navbar. So away it went. But now, I cannot find a way to remove it. I would like to remove it, but it will not go.

All that said, Blogger's great. I recommend it, navbar or no navbar. You can create your own blog with the "create blog" link in the top right. It's easy and free.

And it is better without the navbar.

P.S. This is Rowdy. Do not be distracted--"Honest" is just a pseudonym.

Tickets getting sold

WTAE reports the Pirates are selling tickets. They are shooting for 1.9M tickets this year. If they are at or above .500 going into August, I think they will sell far more than that. If they begin the season 6-18, they will sell less than that.

What's up?

Anything new and exciting to share?

All hail the Blue Hen

Ian Snell, Delaware's best. For some reason, Charlie thinks that's funny.

Ian Snell should be our starter on Opening Day.

On defense

John Perrotto has a report about Wilson's weight and the overall defense. This is worth reading and thinking about. I've come around on this subject. Call it Stockholm Syndrome if you want, but I think I now understand how it might be wise to put so much stock in players like Jack Wilson and Chris Duffy.

The Pirates were right, too, to trade the shortstop prospect before they deal Duffy. You can look through the archives on this blog for the last month or so and find posts from me explaining how I came to this position. To make a long story short, I figure Duffy over McLouth in center is worth a double a week. If you call their defense even and add a double a week to Duffy's offensive production, you realize that you are looking at a player that is very good. Also note that the Braves, who can do no wrong in some circles, wanted Duffy (Perrotto reports) to start in center for them in 2008. The Braves consider him a worthy heir to Andruw Jones' job, and that should be noted by his detractors.

Jack Wilson is another guy who I think is a good major-league player. He has to be on his game, defensively, but with the exception of last year, he has always been on his game, defensively. As Perrotto points out in that report, linked above, Jack Wilson was still an above-average defender in 2006.

When the shortstop makes an outstanding play in the field, it's probably not worth as much as when the centerfielder does the same. The shortstop has twice the opportunities, however. If a defender like Duffy prevents about one double per week (compared to a below-average centerfielder like McLouth), then I'd guess a shortstop like Wilson prevents two singles per week (compared to a below-average shortstop). But even if we call it one single per week, when you add that to Wilson's offensive numbers for the sake of comparing him to a better-hitting, less-spectacular defender, then I think Wilson would still hold his own.

I'm not saying he's a great hitter, and this has nothing to do with where he should hit in the batting order. So don't start in the comments on those themes. He is a good to great defender, I am saying, and this atones for the average to below average offense he provides. He is a good player. It's not his fault that the team does not win 81 games year after year.

Bones and I have been debating whether or not Jack Wilson is "overrated." He thinks he is--or, he thinks Jack might be the most overrated player on the team. I say no. I see no love for Jack Wilson anywhere. To be overrated, I think, a player has to be highly rated. The Pirates' front office love him, obviously, and his face is on the team's home page. And they do silly promotions with him, like the Jack-in-the-Box toy. But outside of that circle of people, I see no one trying to say that Jack Wilson is more than a mediocre to below-average ballplayer. Would you agree? Any non-Pittsburgh baseball pundits out there writing nice things about Jack Wilson? I don't see it. I'd say the Pirates have few or no players that are highly rated outside the 15212 zip code, so I doubt it's fair to say any of these guys are "overrated."

Bobby Kielty will never be a Pirate

Otherwise the terrorists win.

Ken Arenson explains.

Saturday notes

Dejan Kovacevic has been spending too much time with the players.

Jack Wilson makes a fine no. 2 hitter when he's hitting well. I'm all for giving him the chance for a week or two in April. If he sucks, move him down to the 8 hole.

Freddy Sanchez should be slapped silly for suggesting he would bunt a baserunner from second to third. Or I should be slapped silly for misreading the article. Either way, that's what he appears to be saying. It's fine to bunt a guy from first to second if LaRoche is due up, but wasting an out to move a guy from scoring position to scoring position sounds like bad strategy to me.

Lineups are not something worth debating much. We should be more worked up about who is starting and who is not on the team.

Speaking of who is not on the team, the Pirates have all but struck out in the quest for the additional starter. I think they need that starter, and some kind of veteran would be good. He does not have to be much better than Josh Fogg; the Pirates need someone who can step in and be a regular if one of the starters goes down.

It's not an urgent need, this need for a fifth or sixth starter, but it is a need.

I'm also puzzled by the Pirates getting outbid on one-year deals for Ohka and Weaver. The one-year deal is where the team should be with these guys. I'd rather sign Weaver at one year for $9M than two years for $14M. The difference is $5M. You don't know that you'll need this starter beyond this year, so overpay for the flexibility next year. That would be my reasoning.

Now I wonder if some kind of trade might not be the way to go. The Dodgers have a glut of starting pitching, for example. Would they take a relief pitcher or two or three?

P.S. The new red uniform is not up to the standard established by my suggestion of this fabric.

Jack calls out Castillo

Jack throws Castillo under the bus:

"I want whoever's going to make this a winning team," Wilson said. "Right now, Freddy is my second baseman, in my mind. He's the guy I can trust to go 100 percent and get the job done. Castillo's got to show me something. You're going to see it in spring training. If he's slimmed down and ready to work, he's going to have a good year. But, if it's the other way around, we're going to have some problems."

Funny Jack feels qualified to rip an overly bulky infielder with poor offensive skills and 18 errors last year. Look at yourself, Jack, and bite your tongue next time. I guess it's nice to see Tracy's teachings finally sinking in.

Red

Wow, the new red uniform is blindingly ugly.

I wonder what the thinking was here. I'd guess an attempt to distance the team from the past 14 years.

Or maybe a calculated plan based upon the 2005 study concluding that "red enhances human performance in contests." The idea is that wearing red confers a psychological advantage:

"... humans redden when we are angry and pale when we're scared. These are very important signals to other individuals."

However, and perhaps relevant here, the authors also note that:

"I'm afraid that wearing red won't do any good if you're hopeless anyway," Barton noted. "We've only noted an effect if the competitors are quite closely matched."

More links than news today

Dejan Kovacevic explains college night at PNC.

The same man suggests the Pirates could get Jon Lieber for a relief pitcher. If I ran the circus, I would trade a relief pitcher for Jon Lieber and his salary.

If you are near the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, you can get autographs and meet Dave Littlefield.

A dental hygienist still loves Richie Hebner, reports Mike Henry of the Bradenton Herald.

George Von Bonko of scout.com has audio with Zach Duke.

Local boy does good, Clemente-style, reports Janice Crompton at the PG.

Bob Smizik describes the switch from KDKA to 104.7.

In Steelers news, Dick LeBeau talks about his new boss, in that Gerry Dulac report.

Another Bengal went to jail.

Teresa F. Lindeman explains another method devised by the Colts to cheat. Tony Dungy is a good man, but the Colts are the cheatingest dome team out there. I've been wondering how they plan to cheat in the Super Bowl, and I'm stumped.

Bill Utterback predicts disaster for Mike Tomlin. Darren Perry has quit the team after an interview with Tomlin.

Enjoy the day.

Freddy and Weaver

Dejan reports that the Bucs are nearing a two-year deal with Freddy, and pursuing Jeff Weaver. Ken Rosenthal also suggests that Weaver could end up in Pittsburgh.

New Tomlin house?

Just when the Mike Tomlin transition seemed to be smoothly underway, the CSB breaks the story of Tomlin's new luxury house purchase.

Kordell vs. Deadspin

What's Kordell doing these days? Playing flag football in Grand Central Station with Andre Rison vs. two guys from Deadspin. Really.

Mike Tomlinks

The more I listen to and read about Mike Tomlin, the more I like the signing. Of the Tomlin stuff that I've read, this St. Paul Pioneer Press piece from October stands out.

Gerry Dulac reports: all of the defensive coaches will return, Arians is the new OC, and Ken Anderson is in the mix for new QB coach.

Clark Judge of Sportsline and Ed Bouchette report that Grimm might have misread the Rooneys on Saturday. Which brings us to Prisuta. Rowdy chided me for biting and linking to that pantload. Then the Trib went and prisutaed the whole story as if it never happened. See Ryan at HSS if that last sentence didn't make sense.

Best of luck to Grimm and Whiz, who we'll see again soon enough, as the Steelers play in Arizona next year. And all hail our new coach, who "leans on the side of being calm cause he likes to think clearly."

Bucs sign Matos to minor-league deal

A minor-league deal is a fine idea. Matos comes cheap as Sam and Frodo insurance.

(Thanks, Wilbur, for the link.)

Tomlin arrives

Do not miss reports by Ed Bouchette and Gerry Dulac.

Armas, Matos, Floyd

Dejan Kovacevic names some names.

Lineup geekery

Brian O'Neill works the toy.

What Nutting needs to do

New Pirates Roundtable up, in which three expert outsiders (Jeff Sackmann, Dan Szymborski, and David Pinto) answer two questions about what Bob Nutting needs to do to bring competitive baseball back to Pittsburgh, and whether Bucs fans should expect to see a winning team anytime soon. Unimpressed with the LaRoche trade, the three unanimously answer that Nutting needs to fire DL, and forecast more losing.

Meet Tomlin

Ed Bouchette and Gerry Dulac summarize the hiring.

Two of the best players the Steelers have on defense, Hampton and Polamalu, have extraordinary skills which make the 3-4 work. I've long considered the 4-3 a defense that you run when you lack such players.