The Post-Gazette confirms the Tomlin story.
It will take me some time to have an opinion on this hiring. When I think Vikings, I think pleasure-boat cruise with strippers. I trust we'll have none of that.
I also trust the Rooneys know best how to choose a new coach. It is interesting that they went outside the organization, again, and that they went, again, with a relatively young man.
Anyway - all hail Tomlin! I will head downstairs for an appropriate porter to celebrate the call.
These games should be good. I am pulling for the Saints and I'm not sure who else.
... good brother that he is, Bones e-mails me to mock the mispelling of championship. Nevermind that he could have fixed it in half the time it took to email me ...
Ed Bouchette reports no decision has been made. Until Bouchette or the Steelers' front office reports otherwise, I'm not going to believe news that states otherwise.
This is not as exciting as the previous post, but a little bird tells me the Pirates plan to have a new alternate uniform with some red in it. I suspect this little bird reads the Post-Gazette, but who ever heard of a bird that can read? I didn't like the last alternate uniform so much, so I'll take it upon myself to come up with something better.
(now daydreaming, hand on chin, eyes looking heavenward, softly mumbling) . . . red . . . in uniform . . . red solids, out . . . red pinstripes no, too Cincinnati . . . red outline on the letters? no did that . . . must sell well . . . yes . . . stylish . . . unique . . . manly . . . plain white tops, howabout . . . kinda penn state . . . steelers-on-the-road . . . will show dirt well . . . yes, will show dirt, make duffy and wilson look good . . . yes . . . now, how to get red into the pants . . . hmm . . . must sell well . . . pants must be slim-fitting . . . not baggy . . . dark color with red and yellow . . . oh . . . yes . . . perfect
(now sits up, typing again) I propose plain white tops with minimal black lettering and slim-fitting pants in the brecheen pattern. The players will look good, the chicks will dig it, and these pants would sell like crazy with a little Pirate logo on the pocket.
Not sure who that's going to be, yet, but yes, my sources can confirm that YES, there is a 100% chance that the Steelers WILL have a new head coach for the 2007 season.
Very exciting stuff! Remember, you read it here first.
I want to buy a box or a complete set of 2007 baseball cards to feed to the destruction machine that is Rowdy Jr. and Rowdietta. Any recommendations? When do the cards come out, anyway?
Dejan Kovacevic runs down the ramifications of the trade, which might be announced formally this afternoon.
John Perrotto summarized the deal yesterday. He mentions Adam's father, Dave, who I remember as Nolan Ryan's closer. Back when we played some kind of baseball (most often wiffle ball) every day through the summer, weather permitting, I often pretended to be Nolan Ryan of the California Angels. (Bert Blyleven couldn't pitch every day, of course.)
Nate Silver thinks Schuerholz robbed DL. Silver's PECOTA projections think Lillibridge was one of the top fifteen prospects in all of baseball. If Lillibridge outperforms Jack Wilson this year or in years to come, we'll look back on yesterday much differently. But in a world where players break their backs, kick laundry carts, get hit in the head with a teammate's bat while stretching in the tunnel, etc., attrition is the most likely outcome.
One day after the trade, I still like it. DL had a plan (!), dealt from a position of ridiculous strength, and acquired the guy he wanted to fill a position of desperate need.
... [6:25pm] Rowdy here. Nate Silver's PECOTA works from sound premises but achieves questionable results. I'll admit the system has not worked well for me with fantasy drafts the last two years, not well at all in fact, so maybe that's why I'm skeptical. There are other evaluations out there of Lillibridge. John Sickels just posted his grade, for example.
It's ironic, too, that a BP author would praise a GM for trading a high-OPS slugger for a "proven closer." For years that was one of their great hobby horses, i.e., debunking the notion (a) that closing was hard or (b) that teams should pay much, in salary or trade, for a "proven closer."
The notion that this A-level prospect may be the best player in the deal is laughable. It's knee-jerk contrarianism. It's the kind of stuff that would belong in The New Republic of baseball journalism. That said, it got Bones' attention and has some of the Pirates' fans a little shaken. Kudos for Nate for doing what it takes to have that kind of influence on people. All hail PECOTA, beast of the jungle.
Twenty-four hours later, I still love the trade.
We still don't know who is the additional player, but if it's a minor-leaguer or a six through eight starter, I don't care.
Let's not get carried away and regard LaRoche as the next Willie Stargell.
Still I say, great trade! I'll raise the next few Great Lakes porters in appreciation. It's about time something went our way.
Well played, Mr. Littlefield!
The news that stands above the usual restlessness is this, in Dejan Kovacevic's report: "Starters Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten and Bryan Bullington, all working their way back from arm surgeries, were throwing yesterday at PNC Park and predicted they would be ready to pitch in spring training." I did not know Bullington was on such a timetable.
Just got an email from my man in Ecuador. I wrote about him awhile ago. He's repaid half the money I lent him. Way to go, Juan! I am definitely eating at his restaurant the next time I am in Ecuador.
The LaRoche story will not die. Dejan Kovacevic reports how it lumbers from the graveyard.
Littlefield is right to reject the Duffy-and-Gonzo offer. I'm less sure about the starter-and-Gonzo scenario. We need six to ten starters for next year. No one got hurt in 2006, so you know a couple of people will get maimed on us in 2007. It's going to happen--depend on it.
Here's the depth chart, off the top of my head: Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny. That's four good starters. The Bucs would be lucky if they combine for 100 starts. Who starts the other 62 games? Shawn Chacon, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten, Yoslan Herrera (good signing), Shane Youman, Marty McLeary, Bryan Bullington, ... uh ... Kip Bouknight?
Chacon is good for 20 mediocre to bad starts. Burnett might be good for a dozen, ditto for JVB. They could be good for more, but I would not plan on it. Herrera might be ready at the end of the year for six starts. That leaves twelve starts open for Youman and McLeary.
The problem with dealing one of the starters is this. Who starts those 25 games? The Pirates have little depth in the starting pitching department. How many of those relief pitchers could be converted into starting pitchers? Torres maybe?
And who's left on the free agent wire? Where's Jimmy Anderson? Where's Omar Daal? Who could the Pirates sign that would be good for 25 starts in 2007? Call Ryan Vogelsong and tell him to put down those Japanese language tapes.
Or, seriously, sign some mediocre to good pitcher and live with the contract. All the other teams are doing it. If candidates are floating around, they should deal one of the starters and take care of the first-base, the left-handed bat, and the home-run power problems. This would be good for everyone in the lineup. They only need one 25-game starter now (to fill the traded pitcher's turns) and they can get another 25-game starter, or group of guys who can start 25 games collectively, later (to fill the hole created by the first injured starter).
If the Pirates could get LaRoche tomorrow with one of those starters - say, Maholm, since his name is most often mentioned - they could do that first and worry about the 25 starts second.
Here's an added bonus. The addition of LaRoche would sell tickets. And few fans look beyond five or six starters. Littlefield can talk about former #1 picks and the Cuban signing when asked who fills the loss of Maholm. The fans would be happy. The new owner would look good. It's a risk but not that great a risk. And if it fails, Littlefield won't be around to fix it anyway. He can do such a trade.
It would be terrifying, but I think it would be worth it.
One more thing before I return to the lazy Sunday routine. If I had a vote, I would have given it to Mark McGwire.
There is facts and there is interpretation of facts. The facts of his career are all on his side. The sportswriters and the fans can interpret the facts however they please, but it is tiresome and not worth debating when folks advance their interpretations as facts. It is not a fact that McGwire's performance was entirely caused or significantly aided by steroid use. That is an interpretation. We could run down a whole series of excuses sportswriters used to distract readers from the facts of McGwire's career. While I may agree with those interpretations, they remain interpretations, and personally I think the world is a better place when people recognize the difference.
I also think the Hall of Fame is entirely overblown. People invest far too much meaning in it. Baseball stands for many things, and that is good, but it is not the same thing for everyone. Personally, I want to puke when I watch The Natural or Field of Dreams. Not everyone buys into the same interpretations of the significance of baseball. The sport would be better if the sportswriters recognized that and did not pretend to know the meaning of the game. Let it be protean.
The facts say Mark McGwire belongs in the Hall. I expect one day soon he'll get in.
All that said, I recognize that perhaps there are other things at work in the McGwire vote. The moral indignation may be a disguise. Perhaps the sportswriters feel some kind of declining authority among ballplayers. Perhaps they feel that by withholding McGwire's admission to the Hall of Fame, they stand to gain something in their work with the current collection of ballplayers. It's not for me to say. There are different ways to interpret why they voted against him.
P.S. I'm not saying the sportswriters "got it wrong." It was a vote and Big Mac lost. I'm saying I would have voted for him. And I'm predicting that sportswriters will soften and vote him in one day soon. There's no good case against him.
One theme I've noticed in Kovacevic's pre-season preview writing is that we should not expect much improvement from the better players. This is true.
We also have to expect, however, two or three guys to come out of nowhere and surprise us. I can't name which three. Maybe Jose Bautista hits 40 bombs, or maybe Ian Snell finishes the year with 200 innings of 1.12 WHIP and 230 strikeouts. Likewise, Jason Bay could hit .230 with 9 home runs and Chris Duffy could hit a buck-fifty for the first two months of the season.
There are about forty to fifty players who could make an impact, and each player has at least a five percent chance of being, over the course of a season, a superhero. And at least a five percent chance of being a supergoat. Call it six percent for round numbers, and it's even money that three players wildly outperform your expectations (think Freddy Sanchez) and three players wildly underperform (think Oliver Perez).
Strange shit will happen. It always does. None of these young men are fixed quantities. Even Jack Wilson could go and have some kind of season at the plate which diverges from his amazingly consistent career.
It's trite to say expect the unexpected, sure. But sometimes trite is true.
My respect for the unexpected is one of the reasons I always project an 81-win season for the Pirates. The fact that I always expect an 81-win season is something that keeps me a fan. I've been genuinely dumbfounded by this streak of losing.
What I truly expect is this. One year, say this year, the Pirates will win 82 games. Expectations will be high for the next year, and they will disappoint and win 74 again. Then maybe they win 82 in the following year. The payroll stuff might have them averaging 78 wins year after year, but I expect enough deviation from that 78. We could see a 90 win team soon. Far stranger things happen every year.
Folks who blink and say there's no way that's happening are too snug in their certainties. Not much is so certain in pro sports. That's what makes it so engrossing.
Dejan Kovacevic profiles the man at the top.
I expect little to change, but this dispels some uncertainty. So the only change is this. Now things are less likely to change.
If the Pirates would do a better job drafting and developing players, all this tight-fistedness and painful patience could work for them.
I read the gossip stuff and the news reports. And I don't know. I trust the Rooneys not to screw it up. You have a favorite horse in this race?
I'm happy for Bob Nutting that he had his coming out party yesterday. His letter to the fans was an interesting thing. Still, I don't see how much changes for the fans.
I'd like to believe they are paying down debt and doing right by the franchise financially. If they want to keep such details a secret, however, the Nuttings have to live with the fact that we have no reason to believe anything they say about money. Especially when the team continues to play horribly year after year.
The owners can't have it both ways. They can sacrifice nobly, in private, or they can throw open the books and be admired. There is nothing noble about hiding the financial details and then requesting respect for financial behavior that the fans have no way to verify. That would be whining, making excuses, and generally grasping at distractions.
Once the team starts winning, the fans will have less or little or no motivation to suspect the Nuttings of looting. Just win, Bob. Don't make promises you cannot keep or will not keep. And don't allude to financial sacrifice until you are ready to prove it.
I return now to not thinking hard about the Pirates and not expecting anything to happen until March.
OK, the curious conclusion of my morning study of Duffy's defensive superiority, as documented in the two posts and comment threads, below, is this. As far as their value to the team goes, Chris Duffy is more valuable right now than Mike Gonzalez. By quite a bit, too.
I think we can lose the closer and really only be down a seventh-inning bullpen guy, because the whole bullpen is prepared for promotion with little to no drop in quality. Torres can close fine. Grabow and Marte can be your lefties.
Parting with Duffy does look a bad idea. He does not hit much, but his defense and his speed appear to compensate for that pretty well. He's not an All-Star, but the Pirates lack depth at centerfield and that gives Duffy job security. Moreover, possible replacements like Ryan Church, who plays center as well as Ben Grieve played left, look, if you credit Duffy's superior defense as the equivalent of one robbed double per week, much less likely to be improvement over Duffy.
I would look for Chris Duffy on the bobblehead menu in 2007. He's not going anywhere. Littlefield's man-love for Duffy is real, we already know that, and it actually looks not totally irrational to me.
For half a year, I've been impressed with my own logic as more or less described in the previous post. I will concede that Duffy over McLouth in center amounts to one play, or one and a quarter plays, per week. Most of these plays are probably robbed singles, but some are surely extra-base hits. I will call it a double a week.
I now see how that might be a huge difference.
Defense and offense are two sides of the same thing for me, so it should be easy, I thought over breakfast, to put that double per six games into perspective. Taking away a double is the same thing as hitting a double, I say. If one guy flies out and later takes away a double, and the other guy hits a double but then fails to catch a fly ball that falls for a double, then it's a wash. They are equivalent players.
So if you add one double per six games to Duffy's offensive numbers, then you have some hitting stats that you could use to compare him to McLouth. Duffy has played 123 games or about 21 weeks of ball for the Pirates. If we add 21 doubles to his numbers, he has 39 in 440 at-bats. This would raise his batting average to .327 and his slugging percentage to .459. His career OBP would slide up to about .375.
This means, only for the sake of comparing Duffy's career numbers against McLouth's career numbers to evaluate their probable contribution over the 2007 season, I'd use Duffy's defense to justify regarding him as the equivalent of a player with McLouth's defensive skills and a .327 / .375 / .459 hitting line.
That's much better than McLouth.
Wow.
The problem here is not so much that Duffy is too great to trade, but that the Pirates have no depth in centerfield. Because the team is bad, then, they cannot afford to make a trade to make the team better.
Ouch.
They need someone with the defensive skills of Eric Byrnes or Willy Taveras--not as spectacular as Duffy, but not so bad that a defensive adjustment makes Duffy look like a Kearns or a Damon at the plate. Seeing that I have to throw out such names to suggest adequate replacements, I better understand why centerfielders are regarded as such hot commodities. There are not many people who can play centerfield well.
I did not expect to ever say this, but I think I am beginning to feel the man-crush on Chris Duffy that has evidently so infected the Pirates' organization.
That's what I get for interrupting my comfortable routine, so recently established, of mimosa-flavored Pirates ennui.
Turn your cell phones off. Write your answers legibly and show your work if you want partial credit for wrong answers.
Question 1. In a nine-inning game, how many times does the centerfielder have an opportunity to make an out?
Question 2. In a week with six games, how many times does the centerfielder handle the ball?
Question 3. The Louisville Losers have two centerfielders. One has an outstanding zone rating of .901. The other has a poor zone rating of .847. In other words, the first will field 90.1% of the balls hit into what STATS defines as the centerfielder's zone, while the second will field 84.7% of those balls. In a week of six games, how many times would the good centerfielder get to balls that the bad centerfielder would not?
You may consult this table.
You can find the answers in the comments to this post.
It was a nice day today. I hope tomorrow is also nice.
In the Pirates news, nothing's happening. Something could happen, of course. It is possible that something will happen, of course.
This is not to say, of course, that nothing happening is not nice. Remember, nothing will happen just for the sake of something happening. It was a nice day.
Tomorrow could also be nice. I think it will be nice.
This has been another post. Have a nice night.
Dejan Kovacevic has the non-news.
(Shakes head sadly.)
... please note Jack Wilson's quoted comment (see article). How can we interpret this?
Links from the past few weeks, in case you missed them:
D.J. from Derek Bell Yacht Co. comments on DL's interview and "the perplexing and incoherent mess that is Dave Littlefield." I tried twice but couldn't get more than halfway through the interview. Although mesmerized by the masterful gesticulations, I quickly tired of the empty rhetoric and the "We Will" pennies on the distracting cyan backdrop. I did note DL saying "under control" six times in the first half hour.
Holiday Pirates Roundtables: in #5, four non-Buc bloggers answer a question about Mike Gonzalez. In #6, eight Buc bloggers answer questions on Torres and Marte, and Ryan Doumit.
Pat from WHYGAVS responds to an 8-year old reader asking about the Nuttings in "Yes, Virginia, there is a Nutting family".
Charlie from Bucs Dugout has predictions for 2007, which include "Tear Your Labrum Night".
All hail the 2006 HW NFL Pick 'em Pool Swami, Psyco's Dirt, who ran away with a .562 record against the spread. Azibuck came in 2nd at .541. The two placed 6th and 14th ATS for the season at the free host, pigskin. As we crown PD champion, in hindsight it seems like there should've been a prize (other than bragging rights and a free one year subscription to HW). Like a post, or a free 5000 word post by Rowdy on any topic of interest. Anyway, raise your cup to the champ.
He scores 96% good or excellent on this PG poll.
The characteristic that most defines his tenure with the Steelers, for me, was his incredible intensity. He burned the candle at both its ends, as the saying goes. He took the team to the top rapidly, was the youngest coach to ever appear in the Super Bowl, and lost a real heartbreaker. After that disappointment, he went all Captain Ahab with this silent, smoldering intensity that just kept burning through multiple AFC Championship disappointments. When the Steelers finally swept through the playoffs as a road underdog and won the Super Bowl, I wondered how he would maintain that level now that he finally had a ring. The first half of 2006, it looked to me like he had lost it. He was a different coach. Much wiser than when he started, but I did not see the same drive that he had maintained for an incredibly long time.
So, to my eyes, he burned out. But not before he brought home the Lombardi trophy.
I expect he'll return to coaching, somewhere, in a few years, and I doubt he'll be a Steeler again, which makes me sad. It makes me remember: hey, didn't he begin his career with the Cleveland Browns? If we ever see him on the other side of the sidelines, I'll use that to explain how he could go and lead another team.
But I won't forget he's a champion. And I will always appreciate that. If I had to grade his tenure with the Steelers, I'd give him an A plus for that alone. You can't argue with the ring.
Today at 1. No surprise, but still a sad day for Steelers fans as the organization loses one of the greatest coaches of all-time. Best of luck, Coach, and thanks for all the memories.
Or B-Law, we used to call him--which suggests how long ago he was effective--strikes me as the kind of 30-year-old back-of-the-rotation signing that would make it possible to trade a young starter.
I do not think that will happen. But if the Pirates collect some guys like Lawrence, all the talk about "blowing a hole" in the rotation by trading one of those guys will sound silly. The dropoff from the young guys we have to starters like (a healthy) Lawrence is not so great.
One of these days this week, I expect we'll hear that Cowher is leaving, as Ed Bouchette's report suggests.
John Sickels' 2007 Pirates Prospects list is up:
"The Pirates System in One Sentence: A thin system that lacks impact talent as well as depth.I like the top three guys but after that it thins out very, very quickly. There isn't much difference between the C+ and C guys, all of them have major questions or project as spare parts and not impact guys."
Well, I suppose it does have some "one of us" appeal. The Steelers (7-8) can drag the Bengals (8-7) down to their level with a victory.
Dejan Kovacevic reports some things that Tracy said to him. I am not sure how to make sense of these comments.
On the 2007 Pirates: "We're not starting over. That's the important thing. We finished with a winning second half for the first time since 1992, and we want to carry it over. And I'll tell you what: I feel really, really good about it."
Did the team tell us they were "starting over" when Tracy came on board? This explains the unspeakably horrible first half of 2006. I was under the impression that McClendon had them in position to achieve mediocrity, but the Pirates were retreating to zero and starting over.
On the goal: "I understand there are people who want to see us win 82 [games]. I appreciate that. It's been 14 years. But that's not the goal here. That's not what I signed up for. This group has a chance to be pretty good for the next several years. Let's get pretty good first, then go from there."
If 82 wins is not the goal, what is? 92? 72? This frightens me, since it appears possible that Tracy is defining "success" as something less than mediocrity. And what is "pretty good"? 82 wins is not "pretty good" in my book--unless this gets a team into the playoffs.
On the losing streak: "This group has been together 162 games, not 14 years. Let's remember that."
No problem, but if this is the mindset, let's be consistent and not brag about having "a winning second half for the first time since 1992."
On the team's reluctance to trade a starting pitcher for that coveted left-handed bat: "For us to fill a void and create a hole in the rotation ... you just can't do that. Also, you have to look around baseball at what people are paying -- maybe overpaying -- for pitching right now. And we're going to give that up? Can't do that.
Here's where I disagree with those guys. Trading one of our starting pitchers to acquire a slugging first baseman is not blowing a hole in the rotation to fix a hole in the lineup. Our starters are not that good, and they have not done enough to show that it is reasonable to expect them to be that good. I'd trade one of those starters for a player like LaRoche, and then I'd go sign a journeyman back-end starter - for whatever the market price might be - to replace the starter we lost.
There are so many reasons why this would be prudent. We could talk about injury rates for young pitchers vs. the same for young sluggers, we could talk about the scarcity of power hitters, we could talk about the wisdom of dealing from a strength to acquire the kind of player the organization has not been able to develop on its own. I'll make the long story short, though, and simply say that the coaches and the front office have an irrational attachment to these four young starters. It is good to be loved; I hope the young starters appreciate the undue respect they receive from their bosses.
For 3 years and 20 million, the Baltimore Sun reports. Scratch Huff's name off the Lefty McThump list.
Dan Szymborski of BBTF shares his 2007 ZiPS projections for the Bucs. Of all the projection systems in 2006, ZiPS fared the best for pitchers, and came in fourth for hitters.
For the hitters, ZiPS predicts significant declines for Freddy and Ronny, a slight decline for Bay, continued stagnation for Wilson and Castillo, slight improvements to near-mediocrity for Nady and Bautista, and improvements for Duffy and McLouth. ZiPS thinks Duffy will raise his game from 2006's .255/.317/.338 to .274/.326/.384 and McLouth will break out from 2006's .233/.293/.385 to .267/.325/.409. So calling either of these an "improvement" is generous.
For the pitchers, ZiPS likes Duke, Gorzelanny, Snell, and Maholm in that order. ZiPS seems to really like Duke, projecting him to pitch 216 IP with a 1.35 WHIP. Both Snell and Maholm are projected to improve from last year (Snell's 1.46 WHIP to 1.38, Maholm's 1.61 to 1.49). ZiPS projects McLeary, Youman, Wasdin, Santos, and Bullington will all outperform Chacon.
While it's painful to see a screen full of numbers predict exactly how the Bucs will lose their 15th year in a row, at least there's no Jeff Reed picture involved.
This morning I see a Network Solutions takedown notice at the website of our free pick 'em pool. All hail whoever was winning!
UPDATE: Site's back up. Game On!
Or so Gary Gnu reports. This week will probably be quiet. Last January, IIRC, DL started the year with some free-agent signings.
I still predict that Mike Gonzalez gets traded nowhere and the Pirates sign no one of consequence before March 1. I've been wrong before, so use this comment thread to report gnus if you gnot them.
... is the subject of the Sunday installment of DK's Post-Gazette column. Ed Eagle has also written about him for MLB.com.
My take on the patience stuff - as DK notes, even Castillo has a good OBP this winter - is this. The pitchers down there must have serious control problems.
Still, this is a guy that I like for 2007, and when I do my first Pirates sudoku for 2007 I hope to find 500 plate appearances within easy reach for him.
Dave Littlefield sees it this way in Dejan Kovacevic's latest.
He does not equate the two but says that, after Ryan, Gonzalez is as good as they come. I would agree with that.
Today's topic: Herrera and Kuwata.
"Especially in the case of Kuwata, the signing might be partly a symbolic gesture to make the Pirates' name known to other potential talent in Japan. It might seem hollow, but scouts who work abroad will tell you that this sort of thing matters."Reminding people that the Bucs are, in fact, a MLB team, is a prerequisite to future international signings.
Also on Kuwata and Herrera:
Wilbur at OnlyBucs asks whether the Bucs are now ready to compete overseas.
Pat at WHYGAVS proposes Kuwata's tryout be marketed as a reality game show.
Now up. We sat this one out, but 12 others field two questions on DL's "good pitching beats good hitting" inanity, and what Jason Bay might fetch in a trade.
For going 12-4, 11-5 and 10-6 to win weeks 15, 14, and 13, respectively, in the HW NFL pick 'em challenge. Don't short these folks just due to the lax triple hail - drink up. Just two weeks left, starting with the game tonight.
What are your thoughts on the eighteen-month layoff recently enjoyed by Yoslan Herrera?
My hunch is he'll be rusty for a month or two, and then better than ever.
That looks like a good signing to me. I was cool to the idea of Kuwata until I learned he talks to the ball, Mark Fidrych-style. Bones and I have long advocated the use of innovative crowd-pleasing tactics. Now that Jack has asked how this will work for Kuwata in America, I'm highly interested. I'll buy tickets just to see if our American balls can understand his Japanese wisdom.
Dejan Kovacevic shares what is known.
My prediction: the Pirates do not trade him.
The Pirates Steelers can get back to .500 with a win this afternoon.
Only three AFC teams have a worse record.
Zach Duke spoke to John Perrotto about the team building around the current crop of young starters.
The Gray Lady gets in on the fun.
I wonder: would you rather see Adam LaRoche or Melky Cabrera in a Pirates uniform? I will put my answer as the first comment.
Undeterred by the recent bewildering rash of pro-DL Stockholm syndrome, our guy Dave is relentlessly pulverizing Mike Flanagan and the other 28 GMs over at ESPN's GM rater. Like beer, victory tastes so good when it touches your lips.
And drawing heavy interest, Dejan reports. DL could save a lot of face if he could flip Gonzo for some talent. With six teams supposedly interested in Gonzo now, DL should be able to snag a puzzle piece.
In other news, Bucs signed 8 players to minor-league contracts. Mostly all dross to fill the voids that poor drafting has created. Allan Simpson strikes out a lot of batters and is tough on RHs, so he could conceivably contribute in the future to some ML team. Mike Edwards, younger stepson, was also signed.
Rowdy let me monkey around with the template a bit. I added links for: new Pirates blogs A New Pirates Generation, Bucco Wire, Derek Bell Yacht Co., The Parrot, Pirates Roundtable, new Pittsburgh sports blogs The Confluence and Sportsocracy, and a new Steelers blog, Joey Porter's Pit Bulls. I added a few other links and deleted some inactive links. As always, let us know if you have any suggestions or complaints.
All hail one of my childhood heroes, the late Mike Webster, his family, and lawyers for winning their lawsuit against the NFL. The NFL's pension board had reclassified his brain damage disability to try to short him disability payments. Mike's life after football, detailed last year by Greg Garber at ESPN.com, was horrific to say the least. To escape the pain, Mike stunned himself to sleep with a Taser. We'll remember Iron Mike as a Champion, and the greatest center to have ever played.
The Pirates Roundtable #3 came out yesterday. This week the topic is wild speculation on the Bucs' minor leaguers. Please feel free to suggest better answers (which shouldn't be hard for my silly uninformed answers) or even to whine about the Roundtable's mere existence.
The worst hitting player and probably the worst starter in the majors will both return, Dejan reports. Chacon's 1.72 WHIP last year would've been the worst in MLB if he qualified. The worst five were Pineiro, Maholm, Trachsel, Redman, and Fogg. Pineiro, the worst pitcher by this measure, hasn't yet been affiliated with the Bucs. That could change though, as the Trib mentions that the recently non-tendered Joel might be targeted for the Bucs' fifth starter.
The team home page announces that the Pirates claimed one Frank-ellis Osoria off waivers, bringing the 40-man roster to forty men.
Dejan has news, and it's not pretty. DK confirms Perrotto's rumor of yesterday, that the Bucs are indeed talking to 38-year-old Masumi Kuwata. In 2005, Kuwata was Yomiuri's white flag: 12 games, 0-7, 7.24 ERA, 1.77 WHIP. In 2006, Kuwata was limited to 11.2 IP, but stunk those up with a 1.71 WHIP. Kuwata has nothing to offer the Bucs other than a PR mirage that the Bucs are actively scouting Japanese talent, and his appearance on the radar is as unexpected as it is absurd.
In other news, the Bucs are pretending to still be in the running for Suppan. On a related note, Chacon is now likely to be tendered. Worst news is that "the Pirates have made offers to two free-agent hitters. One player they are known to be pursuing is Trot Nixon". We already went over this terrible idea. The second I'd guess is Huff, but this could get real ugly. Lastly, the truth behind Eldred being sent home comes out: "Escogido cut him after losing all six games in which he played." Ouch.
David Laurila has this at Baseball Prospectus. It's premium content, so you have to subscribe to read about Jason Bay's performance in the team's fantasy football league.
John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times has two earthshaking rumors:
"The Pirates are close to filling their need for a veteran right-handed starter by signing long-time Japanese League pitcher Masumi Kuwata as a free agent, baseball sources from Japan told the Times on Monday.Huh? But wait, there's more:Kuwata, 38, most recently pitched for the legendary Tokyo Giants and has 173 wins in his career."
"the potential is still there for a multi-player deal, including a possibility in which the Pirates would send left-handed closer Mike Gonzalez, catcher Humberto Cota, second baseman Jose Castillo and outfielder Nate McLouth to the Braves for right-hander Kyle Davies and LaRoche."I laughed out loud at that one. Is Perrotto just making stuff up today? I sure hope not.
The second Pirates Roundtable is now up. Today's topic is grading DL's Winter Meeting effort, or lack thereof. D or F? You be the judge.
What again was the knock on Church? He's older, yah, I think 28, but to me falls into that category of cock-blocked prospects--like our main man, Ryan Shealy. He's left-handed and plays center. Is it the strikeouts? I remember reading somewhere that the Pirates were only mildly interested. Or was it the asking price?
Here's the schedule for the seven-win teams in the AFC. Bengals host Raiders (1pm), Chiefs host Ravens (1pm), Jacksonville hosts Indy (1pm), Denver at San Diego (4pm), Jets host Buffalo (4pm). The Steelers' chance of getting a wild card at 9-7 are about zero, of course, but there's no harm in rooting against the gang of teams ahead of them.
Terry Pluto reports for the Akron Beacon Journal that the Indians asked about Gonzo. The Pirates asked for Victor Martinez and offered catching prospects (Doumit?) in addition.
It's not good news that nothing has happened, but it is good news to hear that the Pirates are negotiating from their most obvious position of strength. If you subscribe to the notion that closing is not as hard as, say, hitting for power, then naturally you deal from the top of your pile of talented young relievers.
If they stick to such an asking price, someone at some point will make that trade. But you may have to wait until some one or two of the league's closers are injured in March or April.
Dejan Kovacevic reports some stuff for the PG.
First baseman Brad Eldred is back home from the Dominican Republic after going 1 for 18 with 10 strikeouts. He is healthy, agent Gavin Kahn said, so the explanation for his early departure is unclear. The Pirates had hoped he would take 100-150 at-bats there.
Sent home after going 1 for 18 with 10 strikeouts--do we need an explanation?
Teams want Jose Castillo, who is playing well (with plate discipline) in Venezuela. And Jose Hernandez will be available for that "veteran utility infielder job" the Pirates describe as a burning need.
Dejan fields a few questions involving some undeserved defense of DL, some deserved love for Gonzo, and a bit of revelation of DL's new "plan".
Littlefield's plan, as described a couple days ago in the paper, is this: Acquire a reliable pitcher that another team might not want because of his salary. That way, the Pirates get their piece without giving up a key piece in a trade and, in all likelihood, get someone who has only another year or two on his contract.The immediate juxtaposition of the words "Littlefield's" and "plan" are impossible for my brain to comprehend: "Littlefield's plll...? Littlefield's plaaa...? Hmmm. Typo? Aha! DL had a custard dessert - Littlefield's flan."
Dejan reviews LaRochegate, claims Casey Kotchman could still be a possibility, and mentions Jon Lieber as a candidate for the veteran RH starter. There's also an audio link for an interview with DK about the winter meetings that begins with DK being asked how things went for the Bucs, what moves they made, or didn't make, and his assessment. To which DK chuckles and says "well, the moves that they made ... that would be zero." End of audio feed. Is this a technical glitch on the PG's mp3 link, or is this some kind of a cruel joke? (Update, Sat. 2 AM: mp3 link fixed, interview longer but just reiterates what's in the story.)
In other news, Yuslan Herrera is scheduled for his physical today, and could sign right afterwards. Does anyone know why this guy hasn't pitched in years?
Congratulations to Fast Willie Parker and his 223 yards, breaking Frenchy Fuqua's 1970 single-game rushing record. Perhaps Joey Porter, who shattered the single-game trash-talking record set by himself a few weeks ago, said it best: "Willie was out there running like his hair was on fire." All hail Willie!
... [Rowdy] Good things happen when you call 52 runs and 21 passes (71% run). That's how we roll.
Game on.
... it's December, it's about 15 degrees outside, and this Steeler team comes out. They run the ball twice for six yards, then attempt to pass five times in a row and punt. One of the balls, duh, is right on the money but clunks off the tight end. This is not a dome. Why are they passing the ball when it's 15 degrees and they are playing the Browns at home in December? Bad omen, I think.
If it was Coach Rowdy we'd be running the ball 70% of the time in this weather. It would be forecast: Pain for the Brownies.
... 51-yard touchdown to Nate Washington: despite what I just wrote, that play would be in the Coach Rowdy playbook. But I'd run the ball eight times in a row first.
Dejan passes along a typically informationless quote from a flustered DL:
"It's absolute fabrication," Littlefield said this morning of Atlanta's charge. "You just learn that rumors come from a variety of things. I know what we do for business. In regard to specifics of what other people do, I'm well aware from dealing with them what they do. Sometimes, things come up where people . . . someone's making something up."Sounds to me like DL got punked.
Dejan reports:
The Pirates made a selection with the fourth pick of Major League Baseball's Rule 5 draft this morning, right-handed starter Sean White, but they immediately traded it to the Seattle Mariners for cash in an arranged deal.DeCaster released to make room. This should pay for DL's plane ticket to the winter meetings.
The Beaver County Times' John Perrotto's version of the LaRoche non-trade seems consistent with young Travis Haney's:
However, when the Braves insisted on left-handed starting pitcher Paul Maholm as part of any deal, the Pirates balked at packaging him and second baseman Jose Castillo.John also reports that today's proposal mentioned in the Trib (that DL is supposedly waiting on) has already been shot down:
The Braves turned down the Pirates' offer of Castillo and left-handed reliever John Grabow because it had a need for a left-handed starter after agreeing to a trade that would have sent Horacio Ramirez to Seattle for reliever Rafael Soriano.Perrotto goes on to contradict Dejan again by saying efforts will now turn to Ryan Church, who could be had for "a young reliever who is ready to pitch in the major leagues and the Pirates have a surplus of pitchers who fit that description, including Freedom's Josh Sharpless, Jonah Bayliss, Brian Rogers and Jesse Chavez." I'd think Church would be worth more than one of those guys. The rest of Perrotto's story is not for the faint of heart, as it mentions both Trot Nixon and The Stepson.
The Trib's Rob Biertempfel has yet another version of what went down:
Littlefield is playing a waiting game, hoping to land slugger Adam LaRoche...The PG's Dejan Kovacevic sees things differently:The Pirates are believed to have offered the Atlanta Braves left-handed reliever John Grabow and second baseman Jose Castillo for LaRoche, a lefty-hitting first baseman.
The Braves crave Pirates reliever Mike Gonzalez, and would deal LaRoche straight-up for him. However, Littlefield is hoping he can acquire a power bat without disrupting his starting rotation ... or losing a closer.
There is virtually no chance of resuscitating a deal for LaRoche. For one, the Braves filled their relief need and are not interested in any other available Pirates, as evidenced by no other players having come up in the talks.Who to believe? The Trib's story runs counter to Dejan's and Ed Eagle's accounts of the Gonzo-for-LaRoche deal having been all but finalized until the mysterious final hour collapse. Why would the two mouthpieces of the Bucs (Ed and Rob) be running completely contradictory stories? Because confusing the fanbase defuses its blind rage? Who knows, but the Trib story, being the most recent and conflicting with nearly all other previous reports, seems the most suspicious to me. Dejan is probably right in that we'll never know what really happened. Anyway, so what now? Dejan rubs salt in that wound:
... another of the Pirates' potential targets, Washington Nationals outfielder Ryan Church, is no longer in their sights, a source said.Rowdy's prediction of nothing happening is looking like a good bet.
A little of the Google suggests that Travis Haney is a twentysomething recent college grad who covers the Braves for a news service you've never heard about. So this might well be a fairy tale, but it is worth considering:
Once Soriano looked like more of a possibility, and then a virtual lock, the Braves cooled their interest for Pittsburgh closer Mike Gonzalez.They then began to focus on Maholm, saying they wouldn’t deal LaRoche without him. Littlefield balked, though, because of his desire to maintain the young pitching nucleus of Maholm, Zach Duke, Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell.
Maholm went 8-10 with a 4.76 ERA in 30 starts this past season, his first full year in the majors.
Castillo was intriguing to Atlanta as a cheaper option at second than Marcus Giles, whose $5-plus million salary the Braves are trying to unload.
This strikes me as believable. Trading from a position of strength (relief pitching) for a position of weakness (first base) makes a ton of sense for the Pirates. I'm not so sure, however, that LaRoche would be worth Maholm and Castillo--mainly because I'd expect that Maholm might command more elsewhere.
If LaRoche is your man, however, then I think you have to agree to those terms. It would be a dirty trick to thus bait and switch the Pirates, who are under so much pressure to do something right and must want to emerge from the meetings with something accomplished. But you have to anticipate the dirty trick when you are working in this kind of competitive environment. So my sympathy is not necessarily forgiving. I will be looking to see if Dejan Kovacevic can confirm or refute young Haney's report.
Dejan Kovacevic provides some clues to the mystery of the dead deal.
... In the Q & A Kovacevic relates some more facts about how the deal did not go down. It sounds like the Braves screwed Littlefield. This is one of the many downsides to Littlefield having the reputation that he has ... it's always convenient to blame him. And it's not hard to be the guy who disappoints the loser. It reads to me like DL and the Pirates sincerely thought they had the deal done. It must be tough, especially on top of all that bad food they eat while they sit around in hotel rooms sixteen hours a day.
The Q & A also reports that Jason Bay's first child was just born. All hail the little kid! And all hail the mother too.
I blogged too soon. Dejan Kovacevic reports that deal is dead. The Braves lost patience with Littlefield and will look elsewhere for that cheap bullpen upgrade.
No surprises.
Dave O'Brien reports for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the Gonzo-LaRoche trade is "still very much alive." He explains that the Braves have so much payroll going to seven players, they must make trades like this to improve their bullpen--they cannot afford to sign free-agent stud relievers.
I’m told the Braves are just waiting for some information on the hard-throwing left-hander’s elbow, and if they’re satisfied a deal could go down soon after.Gonzalez missed the last month of the season after having an arthrogram on his sore elbow in September, a procedure that involves injecting dye into the joint to get a clear view that reveals any tissue damage. The Pirates gave him a clean bill of health and Gonzalez said he’s been throwing without any soreness since the last week of the season, when he had several full-on bullpen sessions.
Again, I’ll add that something could happen at any time with this or other deals.
I'll believe it when I see it, of course.
Dejan Kovacevic reports the Braves are holding up a trade for our closer over concerns about his health.
Thank you, KPatrick, for the heads-up.
Finally, some encouraging news from the winter meetings. Dejan reports that the Adam LaRoche-for-Mike Gonzalez deal is still possible, and that rather than DL refusing to part with Gonzo as rumored, Schuerholz wants to wait and collect more offers for LaRoche.
I like Adam and hope DL can pull this off. Adam, 27, is the brother of Andy and son of Dave. Dave threw an eephus pitch called "La Lob", which he once used to strike out Gorman Thomas, who promptly returned to the dugout to smoke a cigarette. Anyway, Adam, who slugged just .447 for his minor league career, outperformed his projections last year, finishing at .285/.354/.561 with 32 jacks. In August, BP had a nice long profile on LaRoche, concluding that he could escape the Steve Cox, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Travis Lee comparisons. Adam hits RH much better than LH (.950/.797 OPS vs. R/L for 2006), which would complement Nady (.736/.969) and Bautista (.679/.944), neither of whom hit RH much.
The Pirates will make no trades or free agent signings that could be described as aggressive, bold, or daring. No rumor involving a starter or the closer will come true.
Dejan interrupts our Loney/Kotchman dream sequence with the news that DL is pursuing Trot Nixon:
It is something of a surprise, as Nixon, 32, hardly fits the Pirates' stated goal of finding a young, left-handed power bat...Sigh. Millar is safely employed with another team now, so at the risk of cerebral hemorrhage, I'm letting that go for now.The Pirates' discussions with Nixon could be taken as a sign that they are seeking a fallback if they fail to acquire a young bat such as Atlanta Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche, the name most often linked with the Pirates in the lobby yesterday...
It is possible, too, that the Pirates' eye on Nixon is a sign that they are entertaining platoon options.
How else to explain the word circulating that they were bidding for free-agent first baseman Kevin Millar before the Baltimore Orioles signed him over the weekend for one year at $2.75 million? Millar is neither young, at age 35, nor left-handed.
Nixon? Ugh. Nixon made $7.5 million last year, but according to Dejan, "The view from Boston: Interest in Nixon is thin, and his salary could dip." For good reason. In 2003, Trot raked in a monster career year (.306/.396/.578). It's been downhill ever since. Over the past two years, Trot has put up lines of .268/.373/.394 in 381 ABs (2006) and .275/.357/.446 in 408 ABs (2005). Since 2004, Trot has been ravaged by injuries, going on the DL six times with serious injuries including: herniated disc, strained quad, torn quad, oblique strain, sprained groin, and strained biceps. On top of that, he had knee surgery in Oct. '05. For his career, Trot is notoriously useless against LHP. Against RHP, Trot is .292/.379/.513. Against LHP, Trot turns into Abe Nunez: .213/.309/.325 for Trot, .243/.313/.318 for Noonie. Against RHP and if healthy, Trot would likely be the second best hitter on the Bucs. But overall, is a 32 year old injury-prone platoon RF part of a "plan"? Would Trot be Lefty McThump or Lefty McRump?
Angry Q+A today, largely over Sully's Dominican academy going to the Braves, with no interest from DL and the Bucs. Dejan blames the franchise's failure on the Latin American vacuum:
I have said it before and will repeat it here: There is no single greater factor in the franchise's downfall -- not payroll, not poor trades or signings or drafting -- than the almost total vacuum of Latin American prospects over the past eight years.I find it hard to blame DL for a failure to commit to Latin America. If the owners aren't encouraging him to do so (which they're clearly not), why should DL give a damn about signing 16-year-old Dominicans, when he's only under contract through next year, and will very likely be long gone once any signed prospects reach the majors? DL has more pressing things to worry about than the long-term future of the Bucs, like finding another job.
Asked if Barry Bonds might return to Pittsburgh to break Hank Aaron's record, Littlefield said (and John Perrotto reports):
“There are players out there who probably fit what we’re doing better than Barry,” Littlefield said. “Certainly, he’s one of the better players ever to play the game, but with where we’re at right now there are other players out there who interest us more.”
While I know what he means - I think - Littlefield's choice of words is, as usual, unfortunate.
If Barry didn't have all this cheating stuff hanging over his head, and if Barry wasn't loathed by so many in the Pittsburgh area, and if Barry's days in town were remembered for more than that lame throw which could not beat the speedy Sid Bream -- then I'd think he'd be a good addition for whatever he commands in a one-year deal.
Day one of the winter meetings is over and not much happened, Dejan reports in today's chat. Yesterday, Dejan mentioned Loney, Church, and Kotchman as possible Lefty McThumps. Church is 28, but any one of those three would obviously be a huge upgrade. The biggest rumor of the day is that the Bucs have asked about Adam LaRoche but are unwilling to part with Mike Gonzalez in return. Maybe DL wants to hold off to see if Gonzo together with a starter or two could fetch someone like Loney or Kotchman.
Cory at A New Pirates Generation has organized a new collective Pirates blogging project, the Pittsburgh Pirates Roundtable. The first installment launched today, in which 14 Bucco bloggers/fans all answer the same three questions. It's long, but well worth the read (except for the next-to-last idiot), so check it out. Thanks to Cory for inviting us to contribute and for all the work to put this together. All hail the Roundtable!
The 4-7 Steelers battle the mighty 3-8 Tampa Bay team at four-fifteen.
Dejan does the math:
"... the Pirates will make a minimum of $61.5 million this year before a single ticket is sold for PNC Park."Ouch. His point is we could afford Suppan, and should try to sign him. Also at the PG, Gene Collier hates on Kip, mocks Walt Jocketty, and calls the pursuit of Suppan "one of the better litmus tests of ownership interest to come along in years".
The Trib's Rob Biertempfel interviews ESPN.com's baseball analyst Keith Law, who has some not-so-nice things to say:
"You can't fix this kind of team at the winter meetings. There are teams you can really help if you're aggressive in the market, at the winter meetings. The Pirates aren't that kind of team.All stuff we knew already, but strange to read this in the Trib.I don't think this is going to be a $100 million team anytime soon. So, if they're going to succeed, they have to build from within. That involves drafting well -- not something they've done -- developing well, which they've been awful at; and acquiring younger, less expensive talent in trades where you move a veteran. And that's not something they've really done, either.
If you talk to enough executives from other clubs, you'll hear a consistent theme that dealing with the Pirates is not easy, in terms of just executing a trade," Law said. "It's tough. They ask for a lot for their players, and it's tough to get them to commit to a deal."
