13th losing season haiku

Painful bleeding wound
maybe forming scab? All hail
Bay, Duke, Maholm!

Games 161 and 162: Brewers at Pirates

Congratulations to the Brew Crew for clinching the .500 season.

NFL week 4 thread

Don't forget to make picks if you are in the pool.

Here's a thread for NFL jabber this weekend.

Mexican football

Mexicans are sensible people. They love the Steelers.

Game 160: Brewers at Pirates

The Brewers have to win two of three to finish above .500 and break their equally-long streak of losing seasons. The Pirates have no hope of a winning season, of course.

Pirate fans could chant this weekend, "One of us! One of us! One of us!"

Except for Bones. He will be cheering, "Reverse Wiggy Wheel!"

Oliver Perez starts tonight. Game is at seven. Plenty of good seats, I'm sure. Wear a couple fleeces if you plan to stay for the whole show.

...Pirates 4, Brewers 0, after four. Ollie looks OK.

...I like to think that I've generally outgrown hatred, as in, I'm rarely all about "hating" this or that. But for some reason, Doug Davis is a guy I just loathe. So I'm enjoying this game tonight. If I was ten again, and still had baseball cards (or access to Bones' baseball cards), I find his card and bite down hard on it, leaving ten-year-old-sized teeth marks.

...you have to really try to walk Bill Hall. Good job with the second effort, Ollie.

...d'oh. It's going to take a long time to forget the bad taste of this season.

Week 4 picks

I took a bath last week and did terribly in the pick 'em pool. On the year I'm 13-21, yet more than a dozen spots from last place.

A lot of us did poorly. In fact, I've never seen a year quite like this one, with so many pick 'em players under .500 going into week 4. Only 7 of 34 Honest Wagner players are at or above .500. Only 25 players on the whole site (not sure how many total players there are, but I'd guess hundreds) are at or above .500. Tell me again why the books have to take a cut of any winnings? They are rolling in the profits so far this season.

My picks last week were sweet, even if all wrong. That can happen.

This weeks' picks are sweeter. Have fun picking against them.

Using the lines at pigskin.com, here the picks. Detroit covers at Tampa Bay. So laughable, it just might happen. Houston covers at Cincinnati. More laughter. Indy rolls Tennessee. Kansas City owns Philadelphia. The Bolts come and lose a squeaker to Tom Brady. The Seahags outrun the Redskins in DC. The Giants crush the Rams. The Jets cover at Baltimore.

Jets cover at Baltimore??? I am not afraid of first-time starters at quarterback. I am afraid of bad quarterbacks, of course, but first-timers are not always bad. Tom Brady, for example, was a sixth-round understudy when Drew Bledsoe ruptured his spleen in 2001.

Bollinger was a mobile, smart quarterback at Wisconsin. He's been holding the clipboard for three years. So what if his name is synonymous, in New York, with third-string offensive ineptitude? We've yet to see what he can do with the first-stringers.

Quarterbacks can lose a game; Kyle Orton knows something about that. Generally, though, they are an overrated part of some system. If they take care of the ball, whether or not the team wins on offense is not so much determined by their play.

The Jets offense may be in bad shape around him, but so too is the Ravens' offense. The Ravens are not as good as many think on defense, and the Jets are better than many think on defense.

All in all, even with the first-time starter at QB, this should be a close game. What clinches it for me is the insanely low number: currently 30-31. A seven-and-a-half-point spread is enormous in a game that's expected to generate that little scoring.

Moving on. I had a blue-and-black striped dress shirt in my hands the other day at the mall. It was spiffy. I was going to buy it, but something about it ... bothered me. What is it? I kept thinking. Suddenly I knew: the color scheme was identical to the Dallas football colors. I put the shirt back. I could never wear it without thinking, every time I looked in the mirror: "How 'bout them Cowboys!"

Dallas covers at Oakland. Minnesota covers at Atlanta. Green Bay covers on Monday night.

There are three games I see as a 50-50 proposition: Buffalo "at" New Orleans, Denver at Jacksonville, and San Francisco "at" Arizona. If I was over .500, I'd stay away. But now it looks like a few coin flips might improve my record. I'll take all the visitors. I'm especially curious to see how J.P. Losman, former Tulane standout, plays against the Saints. Since he has a reputation for being too emotional, I guess he might be a little out of control.

Still time to get in our pool. It's free.

Huzza for express, now first among our pool players with the min. plate appearances (24 games picked).

Bones' 2006 playbook

What can I bring to the table as 2006 Pirates manager? A new out-of-the-box playbook. Designed to sell tickets and teach some of these damn kids a lesson that they need to execute the fundamentals they've been taught ... or face Wiggy.

Page 1 is the new defensive play "the reverse Wiggy wheel". In this one, Wiggy plays first. Upon contact, the whole infield sprints into clockwise rotation. P covers 3B, 3B covers SS, SS covers 2B, 2B covers 1B. This frees Wiggy up for a full-speed head-on collision with the unsuspecting baserunner.

This doesn't work for walks or homers. So page 2: say Kip just got cute with his sixth walk of the game or Mesa just grooved a fastball. Of course, the game is now beyond reach and the pitcher needs a sharp correction. I signal for the "Wiggy hook". In this one, Doumit lofts the ball back to the mound, but about a third of the way towards third. Kip/Joe/whoever jogs off the mound to shag the errant throw. Wiggy sprints off third, seemingly also shagging said errant throw. But of course, he never slows down, overruns it and does what he does best. Page 3 is a variant of this one where Wiggy gets shifted to LF after Tike botches a play in CF. Fogg comes in to serve up fly balls and Wiggy does his thing. Page 4 is "Wrong-way Wiggy". This one gets prescribed after egregious baserunning blunders. Next time offender gets on base behind somebody else, lead baserunner is replaced with Wiggy. You can guess what comes next.

We might not win many games, but that hasn't been the goal in awhile, right? More importantly, I think all these puerile shenanigans would sell tickets, and make a LOT of money for Mr. Nutting.

Game 159: Pirates at Cubs

Pirates have a lead here in the sixth.

How would Bones handle this situation? I guess he'd call a beanball, just to keep them Cubs honest. And in their place.

Bones throws his name into the ring

After reading about all these other guys, I can't resist. I hereby publicly declare my willingness to manage the Pirates in 2006.

Despite no managerial experience of any sort and extensive family and second job commitments, I could do the best job I could to keep everybody afloat. If Dave and Kevin (and Ogden) picked me, I'd make changes. I'd have my own program. My specific platform is: the daily starting line-up would be determined by a daily HW reader vote. That plus I'd ban laundry carts. And lying down (while on the clock).

All hail Zach Duke

Add tonight's game to the evidence that Zach Duke deserves the NL ROY award. Sure, other guys played more often, but no one has been as consistently good as Zach Duke.

That's the second time Duke has beaten strong outings from Greg Maddux. (Here's the first.)

No Zach Duke, then perhaps Maddux gets his 15 wins.

Duke also beat Tim Hudson.

Game 158: Pirates at Cubs

Duke and Madduke.

The silent killer

Brian O'Neill on the walk.

Neil Walker's journal

For MLB.com. Send him email and remember, he's only 20. Be kind.

Freddy Sanchez to play third in 2006

Dejan Kovacevic considers the idea. Uh, I say, no. He's not the worst stopgap option, but he's not the kind of impact hitter this team so seriously needs. He's Abraham Nunez with the stick, more or less.

If the Pirates can any kind of high-upside third-base prospect in trade this offseason, I think they should do it, even if it means trading some of the young pitchers so near and dear to our hearts.

If it's Chris Stynes or Freddy Sanchez, I'll take Freddy Sanchez.

Paul Maholm

Dejan Kovacevic wrote this biography of Paul Maholm for Sunday's PG.

I believe that the first five starts of a rookie's career suggest, in a fairly reliable way, whether or not they will make it in the big leagues. Maholm threw four gems and then got hit hard once.

We'll see what he looks like in March. For now, regardless of what happens the rest of the year, I'll be thinking we have a good one.

The extra 52 seconds

The spin here - that it cost the Steelers the game - is just bullshit. (No offense, Alan Robinson. Keep the stories coming.)

All day the Steelers had loads of opportunities to win, to put New England away, and this had nothing, nothing at all, to do with the losing.

...With the bye week coming up, I'm not talking about the Steelers again until October 10th.

Game 157: Pirates at Dodgers

The harsh light of day.

The Los Angeles Dodgers had hoped to be battling for a playoff spot in the last week of the season. Instead, they're just trying to stay motivated as the season winds down.

The Dodgers look to build some momentum heading into the offseason as they wrap up a four-game series with the league-worst Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium.

Arrrrrgh. It's true; we're a game and a half out of Colorado. If Pete Mackanin is worth his salt, he'll take advantage of the Rockies closing the season with seven road games. He'll overtake them, plunder their good shit, and leave their sorry ship wrecked and burning on some distant rocks.

Kip "The Glory of 2005 Will Always Be On Me" Wells and Edwin Jackson, the uber-prospect Los Angeles would not trade for Adam Dunn.

NFL week 3 thread

All hail Alan Faneca!

Game 156: Pirates at Dodgers

The Pirates play today at 4:00 o'clock, which is, unfortunately, the same time that the great Alan Faneca takes the stage.

Lots of good Pirates reading in the PG today. Perfect Sunday morning cup of coffee stuff. Maybe we'll link up and discuss those things next week.

What's the news about Eldred's hamstring? I hate to see them starting with the hamstring injuries.

Game 155: Pirates at Dodgers

The battle of O. Perezes.

Rowdy picks, NFL week 3

My picks are Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, at whatever lines we get for our pool at pigskin.com. I am on the fence with some other games and may add one or two more tomorrow morning.

...I will add J'ville too.

Game 154: Pirates at Dodgers

Paul Maholm vs. D.J. Houlton, starting right now. Mack-o-wack is batting clean up and playing third.

Make picks

Don't forget to make picks this week. The link at the top left will get you there if you've got post-concusssion syndrome and can't remember how. Still time to join the pool, too, and compete for fabulous hooraws and huzzas. So far I have one pick set: I love the Steelers this week. More picks later.

Dale Sveum

Paul Meyer.

Game 153: Astros at Pirates

2-1 Houston, Pirates coming to bat in the eighth inning.

NFL week 3

Whenever I have an off-week picking games, I usually blame picking them early, if that's the case. This week I'm determined not to get eager and won't pick games until Saturday or Sunday morning. (FWIW, The pool is still open to new players.)

In the meantime, here's a question. The Steelers come on at 4:15. The Pirates will be at LA at 4:10. Fans will be forgiven if the Pirates have slipped their mind when the great Alan Faneca takes the field.

At one o'clock, assuming you could have your pick of the litter, which one of these games will you be watching?

Atlanta at Buffalo
Cincinnati at Chicago
Jacksonville at New York
Oakland at Philadelphia
Tennessee at St. Louis
Carolina at Miami
Cleveland at Indianapolis
New Orleans at Minnesota
Tampa Bay at Green Bay

I have my opinion, but I'd like to hear yours first.

John Russell: Gimme the keys

John Perrotto has been thinking manager and has this today on John Russell.

Yesterday he was sending Leyland to Detroit.

I'm not eager for a Leyland return, and I'm not qualified to say much more on the subject.

If Pirates Ruled

Fun stuff. Hook jab to Boing Boing.

Kip Wells

Dejan writes about him.

I think the Bucs have to cut him loose.

. . .I should elaborate. Two theories come to mind that answer the, "What's wrong with Kip?" question. The first and most common one appears to be, Kip does not like playing in Pittsburgh, does not improve under our coaching, and does not know how to help himself. This leads to the worry that the Pirates will let him go, and some other pitching guru will "solve" him over a weekend. And he'll pitch like Jason Schmidt for the next ten years.

I am not privy to the opinions of Pirate coaches on Kip Wells. I don't know how they explain his inconsistency and general failure to get good results from good stuff. I would guess, however, that if they have a hypothesis, Kip has either rejected it or they have tested it with bad results.

The second theory, which does not get enough play I think, is simply that Kip is a bad pitcher. Not all Pirate pitchers left Pittsburgh for greater success elsewhere. KPatrick brings up Jimmy Anderson. The second theory is simpler. Why buy into a line of psychobabble about a young man's troubled response to what he (maybe) perceives as his dysfunctional baseball family? Why not just say, Kip Wells is a bad pitcher?

More and more he reminds me of Brett Tomko. I think I've said that before.

The odds are that, no matter where Kip pitches in 2006, he's not going to pitch well. I wish him luck but that has to be the most common-sense prediction.

Since he's not going to pitch well, we can't afford to pay him. If we bring him back at a much higher salary, that's a Daryle Ward-type gamble with much higher stakes. We don't need to gamble with the rotation at this point, especially since it's clear we are committed to Oliver Perez.

Game 152: Astros at Pirates

KPatrick kicks it off with this comment: "Hey since there's no game 152 thread up, I'll ask: has Kip Wells just quit? Is he tanking? Is there any reason Gorzelanny and or Bullington shouldn't have his spot? Could we get Rabies in a trade for Wells right now?"

North Side to notch no more

Gather 'round for Q & A time.

His question - do the Indians have self-inflicted wounds the size of Aramis Ramirez and Chris Shelton - is a good one. I pay more attention to the Tribe than to any other AL club, but I draw a blank. Unless of course "trading away Matt Lawton" ... uh nah. They did squander Bartolon Colon for some uberprospect shortstop who never went anywhere. I'm not sure that qualfies.

At the end, Dejan requests a new, distinctly Piratical name for the notebook section collecting all the undiscovered, suggestive, and often unexpected odds and ends. How about "Hidden Vigorish"?

Game 151: Astros at Pirates

Will Carroll, yesterday in his Under the Knife column, on tonight's starter for Bucs: "Watch for Tom Gorzelanny on Tuesday. You'll see the best splitter in baseball I've seen since Mike Scott."

All hail express and Groovyman

10-6 last week in the pool.

Bay to get paid

Sounds like a good idea to me. He is Mr. Consistency.

Teke

Wants to manage. Does he still wear those cool glasses?

Cover the children's eyes

Stats Geek on the 2005 rotation.

Snell outduels Clemens

No matter what comes of his career, you know for all his days Ian Snell will have this headline and box score framed in his drinking room.

Huge budget Pirates movie

Not safe for work: Pirates, with Jesse Jane, Carmen Luvana, Janine, Teagan Presley, Devon, Austyn Moore, Jenaveve Jolie. This is porn, people. Pirate porn. Not at all safe for work. "Came" out today for Talk Like a Pirate Day.

Game 150: Astros at Pirates

Seven o'clock, ar.

Talk like a Pirate day

It is indeed.

Dipsy-doodle stuff

John Perrotto on Jack-in-the-box day.

This was definitely one of the cooler giveaways of the year.

The 3-4

Ed Bouchette runs down the teams installing or still adapting to the 3-4. I saw that comment from Dom Capers in last week's interview. It's good to be ahead of the curve. I also thought that both Carr and Capers sounded unusually deferential to the Steelers.

As they should, I suppose.

Ravens honk

Surprise of the day: Tennessee 25, Craisins 10. It's not surprising that the Tennessee, a week after going to school to study with the best, would play strong and win. What does surprise me is this: Jamal Lewis 10 carries, 9 yards. Chester Taylor 3 carries, 5 yards. Anthony Wright 25-for-40. 13 runs, 40 passes? WTF were they thinking? Was the Titan run defense was that stout?

...just listened to the first quarter. Craven offense inept. First series, three and out. Second series, Lewis fumbled the ball away on the second play. Two penalties on the third drive. Tennessee has possession more that ten minutes. Tenn. announcers swooning about Pacman Jones' debut. Albert Haynesworth doing the gimpy General act. Tenn. announcers saying Ray Lewis has lost a step but remains smart.

On offense, the Titans run screen after screen. Travis Henry running like Eddie George of six-eight years ago. Titans get a long field goal.

... now listening to the second quarter. Ravers with the ball. Haynesworth shoots right through the Ravin' OL, which the Titans are dominating, and buries Jamal Lewis. Wright completes one dink and one dunk--punt formation. Titans drive into Raven territory and turn the ball over. Wright sacked twice; Lewis gets some on a draw; punt. Next possession, Raisins stuffed, sacked, incomplete, punt.

The story of this game appears to be total domination in the first half. The three first-half sacks extinguished Baltimore completely. They got three more in the second half.

I'm downgrading the Ravens after this one. The o-line played terribly. They are old and not fully recovered from injury. Their run-blocking looked as bad as their pass-blocking, which was not even good last year. Anthony Wright looked inept, and the Titans made the Baltimore defense look average. I now grade the AFC North as Pittsburgh 5 stars, Bengals 4, Ravens 3, Browns 1.

I guess Kordell Stewart will start for Baltimore before the end of the season.

The Brownies did well today, but I didn't see much reason to lift them up. I see the Pack as a 3-star team (average), and given the circumstances, I didn't think that upset was a huge shock. The Browns go to Indy next week. I expect they'll do a little better there than San Francisco did in Philadelphia.

Game 149: Reds at Pirates

Game on 1:35pm. Eric Milton and Ollie Perez. Any chance the Pirates have of a winning season in 2006 involves Oliver Perez getting back to something like his 2003 2004 form.

That's stating the obvious, perhaps. Here's hoping he can show us something this afternoon.

...Albert mentions the Winter Leagues. Maybe Ollie is like Odalis Perez--maybe he can only pitch well if he pitches year-round.

NFL week 2: Steelers at Texans

Game on at 1pm.

the Jacksonville at Indianapolis game

Indy was taken by 27 of 28 players in the pool (still open spaces - join up if you want).

If you took Indy because the line was 1 1/2 earlier in the week, know that the one guy who runs our website corrected it to 8 1/2. He will make mistakes, and he will correct them. I've used the service for a few years, and I've seen this before. It's not like a bookie where your bet is locked in at whatever line was posted when you made your pick. From time to time, he'll have the spread or the favorite wrong. I'd say he could be more careful but hell, the service is free so I am not complaining.

Since most everyone is taking Indy (as of right now), any bad effect or misunderstanding will be cancelled out. The pool will triumph or fail together.

Know the lines from pages like this one (always on your left, linked as "Live Odds"). If a pigskin.com line looks too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true - check back in a few days to see if the wrong line hasn't been corrected.

Also note that lines that drift a point or two will not be corrected. I've only seen him correct the obvious bone-headed mistakes. So if a game starts as Arizona -2.5 and move to pick 'em, that won't be adjusted. If you trust the public and believe in bargain-hunting, that's an angle you can play specifically against the lines employed by our website.

Game 148: Reds at Pirates

Harang and Maholm. The Maholm rhymes from Kovacevic's last Q & A were pretty funny, esp. "Duke and Maholm, and three in the loss column." Let's hope we can do better than that in 2006.

Games 146 and 147: Reds at Pirates

Doubleheader starts in twenty minutes. Wily Mo Pena, the lefty killer in the Reds' lineup, bats cleanup against Zach Duke. Good luck with that, Zach.

If the Bucs sweep, they will have achieved win #60 half-way through September.

Welcome new guys

Rotoworld reports the Bucs just activated Matt Capps, Bryan Bullington, Tom Gorzelanny, Jose Bautista, and Ronny Paulino.

I look forward to seeing these men play. Bautista has two weeks to prove the Bucs don't need to acquire a Mike Lowell this offseason.

...P.S. Here's the link for Rotoworld: Link. I find they are agonizingly hit or miss. Knowing as much as I do about the Bucs, I know they don't always know what they are talking about when they analyze news. Scroll down the page, for example, and they write that the Bucs "are reportedly interested in hiring Jim Tracy." While that may be technically true, non-Pirate fans are not likely to understand that they are interested in Jim Tracy only to the extent that they are interested, reportedly, in managers with big-league managerial experience. And that Tracy interviwed for the job in 2000. But has Tracy leapt to the top of the list? I don't think any reports have suggested anything of the kind.

He prances up and down the dugout

Pirates interim manager Pete Mackanin likes what he sees from rookie outfielder Nate McLouth.

It's been a long season for Joe Rutter, I think.

Hometown Discount

Baseball Prospectus's Nate Silver makes a case for a "hometown discount" program in which MLB would release money from a team's revenue-sharing duty so that team could retain a free agent who is worth more to another team.

Here's part of the problem, as Silver explains:

Let's shift gears for a second and revisit the finding I introduced last week, that from a revenue-generation standpoint, players are worth significantly more to teams with a reasonable near-term hope of competing for a playoff spot. One of the implications of this is that teams that are not competitive, particularly ones that play in smaller markets, are at risk of joining something of a permanent underclass. When Jason Bay becomes a free agent in a few years, and the Pirates still stink, they're going to find that he might be worth $8 million per season to them, while he would be worth $10 million to the Phillies, who presumably will have gone 85-77 for seven years running and will desperately need a player to get them over the playoff bubble. If the Phillies outbid the Pirates for Bay, it's because he really is worth more in Philadelphia, not because the Pirates are being cheap.

Link here (premium content; req's paid subscription). More fans could understand the economic logic of that argument.

My initial response to his proposed solution was, Great idea, but how would the league explain this to the fans? On second thought, I think it would be an easy sell. The program could be wrapped in some kind of "family values" or "we build teams" context that might also do much to shed the negative connotations steroids has attached to the sport.

It would do nothing to improve the attitude and/or performance of notable grousers like Kris Benson, Kip Wells, or, more recently, B.J. Upton, who approach their time with a small-market club as the heavy dues they have to pay before they can play for a "real" team.

NFL week 2 picks

Still plenty of time to get in the Honest Wagner pick 'em pool. It's free of course.

I went 8-8 last week. This week I have eight picks: Buffalo (+2.5), Cincinnati (-2.5), San Francisco (+13.5, ATS only), Cleveland (+7.5, ATS only), Miami (+6.5, ATS only), San Diego (+2.5), Oakland (-1.5), New Orleans (+3.5). Those lines come from the free office pool website we are using, pigskin.com.

Use this thread to trash these picks or explain your own.

...oops, forgot the Steelers. Make it nine.

Off-day NFL thread

Only two adjustments to my preseason rankings in light of week one: OK, maybe Kansas City will be good this year. And while I still don't expect much from Miami, I have to move them up off the dirt floor where the Cardinals, 49ers, Vikings, and Clowns lie and moan.

So what are the big games in week two, the ones you'd want to see if/when you aren't watching the Steelers thrash another hapless opponent?

Buffalo at Tampa Bay intrigues me. The Bills look like the much better team, but the Dolphins (I learned) hold a sick home-field advantage in August and September. Will the Bills wilt in Tampa Bay? Have the Bucs had similar success outlasting rivals in early-season heat? Here's a link to the Tampa forecast.

The primetime games include some storied division rivalries (Dallas-Washington, Kansas City-Oakland) and the big schedule-change story (New Orleans). Miami and the Jets always play great games. Doesn't one team always beat the other? San Diego and Denver also looks like a great game, and it's one that will surely have a big impact on the tough AFC West division race.

And this may be somewhat degenerate to say, but Detroit at Chicago also looks like a good game to me. Do the Lions ever win at Soldier Field? Are the Bears as good (mediocre) as I think they are?

Zach Duke alert

Pirates have Thursday off, come home, and host the Reds Friday night. Zach Duke is scheduled to start.

Game 145: Pirates at Cardinals

2:10 PM EST. Oliver Perez vs. Jason Marquis. Stakes are high as the Cards could clinch the division with a win and an Astros loss.

All hail Mojo

His 7-4 work with the Magic 8-ball has him leading the pool.

I thought going with the crowd would get you nine or ten wins, but it was only good for six.

I bought the NFL FieldPass thing so I can listen to the games I missed during the week. Right now I'm listening to that New York Jets at Kansas City game. The Chiefs destroyed New York from play 1. It was relentlessly one-sided from the start.

... OK, that game sucked. Denver-Miami on now. Fourteen minutes into the game, and all I've heard is how hot and humid it is in Miami. The Denver broadcasters sound confident Denver will eventually destroy Miami, too.

... and the Seahawks fumbled away the opening kickoff. Not hard to guess why they went on to lose.

Pirates of the Allegheny

All hail Wilbur Miller for the Zimbalist report in Baseball Prospectus.

I haven't been a huge fan of the theory that payroll determines winning percentage. I was all about the 2005 plan and thought it would work. But WTF do I know? The season since the 30-30 mark has been more shameful than I ever would have expected. And yeah, throwing money at the problem just might help.

Game 144: Pirates at Cardinals

8:10 PM EST. Ian Snell vs. Chris Carpenter. Furmaniak makes his Bucco debut playing 2B and batting eighth.

Redman breaks finger

Squaring around too late on a first-pitch sinker from Mulder, Mark Redman broke the tip of his left (throwing) index finger fouling off a bunt tonight. Since he's likely out for the year, odds are he'll pick up his $4,500,000 player option to return in 2006.

Redman finishes the year at 5-15. In 178.1 IP, he gave up 188 H, 18 HR, 56 BB to 101 Ks for a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Not good, but not as terrible as the record might indicate. Redman's ERAs by month Apr-Sept: 2.78, 3.43, 4.01, 6.94, 7.63, 11.57. Let's hope he can reset that come April '06. Wow, there should be quite a logjam competing for '06 rotation spots.

Why do the Pirates lose?

Brian O'Neill thinks it has something to do with being outslugged and outwalked.

Also some interest in Mackanin's bunts. McClendon had a reputation for bunting a lot which he didn't deserve. I think it was that his pitchers were good bunters and bunted a lot. E.g., Kris "Super-bunter" Benson (insert "laying one down" joke here) had 15 in 2004.

But forget about laying down bunts. Talking to fans, it sounds like the new dipshit thing the Pirates do is not field them correctly.

Game 143: Pirates at Cardinals

Mark Redman vs. Mark Mulder. Bucs up 2-0 in the fourth. Eldred's 2-for-2. Wiggy's also 2-for-2 and just barreled over Molina, but couldn't jar the ball loose.

Q & A with Brian Graham

Link here.

Graham would like to manage at the big-league level some day.

True or false: the younger batch - the newest arrivals - play fundamentally better baseball than the older younger batch. Indy people, Altoona people: do the guys down there field bunts, for example, better than the guys up here?

Mesa out

The king is dead, long live the king.

Ed Eagle reporting Mesa removed from closer's role.

Steelers Game 1: Tennessee at Pittsburgh

Steelers up 20-7 at halftime. Ben's 7-for-9 and looking good. All hail the beautiful 63 yard TD strike to Randle El and Big Money's first NFL TD!

Game 142: Pirates at Reds

Maholm vs. Claussen. Eldred's on fire.

Game 141: Pirates at Reds

Seven o'clock, Kip Wells and Ramon Ortiz.

NFL week 1: the Picks

Still plenty of time to join the pool.

Usually, Week 1 is an easy week where good teams meet expectations. Most years, everyone comes out above .500 against the spread. The rest of the season is tough. The usual, easy success in week 1 will drive you crazy in weeks 2 through 6 as you seek to regain that touch.

The trick with the first week, I think, is simply picking winners. You have to start the season with a clear idea of the relative strengths of the teams. You don't want to borrow another person's ratings. Sports Illustrated will only lead you astray. You have to make up your own. I evaluate the teams by looking at the coaching staff, the offensive line, the ball handlers, the defense, and the special teams. Continuity, while boring, is promising. Rarely do new coaches or new schemes work well right from the beginning.

So far, I rank the division this way. AFC East: Buffalo, New England, Jets, Miami. AFC North: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland. AFC West: Denver, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City. AFC South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston. Buffalo, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, and Indianapolis are my playoff teams.

NFC looks like this. The NFC North will be a toss-up between Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago. They are equally average. Minnesota no good. NFC East, Philly runs aways with it. I count five teams in the AFC as good as the Eagles. The NFC has a bigger second tier. The Eagles should make the championship game again and play some one of St. Louis, Atlanta, Carolina, maybe New Orleans or, maybe Green Bay if they get home playoff games and Favre is still rolling in January.

In the rest of the NFC East, I see little separating Dallas, Washington, and the NY Giants. The Rams should win the West, with Seattle a clear second. San Fran and Arizona fight for third. The NFC South is the strongest division. Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans are all good. I put them on a level with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis. Tampa Bay is solid, but probably finishing with 7 or 8 and going nowhere.

So here are the picks I'm making this morning. I took New England. FWIW, you always take the Super Bowl winner in week 1. I am taking Pittsburgh, Denver, Buffalo, and San Diego as winners. Not sure about the Colts on the road in the Sunday night game at Baltimore. I'm taking Washington because I expect they'll be better this year, maybe even surprisingly good. And gimme the New York Jets and Detroit because I think their opponents are overrated.

Only the Detroit pick is counterintuitive and kind of sassy. 70% of the pigskin.com players are taking Green Bay. I expect that simply taking the majority choice on each game will bring a player 9 wins.

Another thing about making picks: you don't want to be too eager. I will go back and pick up the rest of the games later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Use this thread to make your predictions.

... all done. Updated the NFC picks, above. Gimme Seattle, who is a better team than Jacksonville. The Saints to cover. The Bengals to win big enough. The Bucs to win straight up in Minnesota. Giants take Arizona apart. The Rams destroy the 49ers. The Falcons squeak by Philadelphia.

Game 140: Pirates at Reds

Ollie returns, facing Luke Hudson. Just underway right now. Bases loaded full of Bucs already. McLouth led off with a single, Jack got beaned, then Bay walked. Bucs seek to build a lead bigger than Mesa can blow in the 9th.

NFC East preview

I like the NFC about as much as I like the American League. If some of these comments seem stupid, consider me ill-informed.

This division looks like the AFC South. The Eagles look great. The rest of the division looks pretty crappy and destined for disappointment and failure.

First, them Eags. Andy Reid's career record: 71-37. Suck that, Brian Billick. They more or less return last year's team. And they add a bunch of players from what looks to me like a pretty good draft. They put up with TO, and I guess there's no point arguing with a team that's done as well as they have.

I don't know how to rank the rest of the division. The Cowboys are not as good as some people think, and the Redskins are not as bad as others say.

Let's talk Cowboys. Bill Parcells has not impressed me of late. The line sports Rob Petitti of Pittsburgh and looks real good on paper. Drew Bledsoe is good when he's healthy. Julius Jones reminds me of Fred Taylor. I don't see great depth behind either player. They have guys that catch the ball. On defense, they switch schemes in what looks to me like a high-risk, medium reward move. Will Dat Nguyen suffer in a 3-4 the way Ray Lewis did? We'll see.

Tom Coughlin of the Giants is another coach that has not impressed me lately. They put crazy pressure on Eli Manning, who may or may not be able to handle it. The rest of the team looks pretty average to me, but saying that probably exposes my ignorance of the merits of guys like Frank Walker. With little to bitch about, I suppose I should rank the Giants a game above the Cowboys.

The Redskins have been the whipping boy of the preseason prognosticators. You have to predict someone to have a terrible win-loss record, so you pick on the team that did it the year before. Pirate fans know something about this.

Is Joe Gibbs now a doddering moron? His 146-75 career record is a Double Andy Reid. When you bring Andy Reid's svelte profile to mind, that's a weighty record.

I like any team that takes care of the O-line first, and the Redskins looks pretty set there. The noise about Patrick Ramsey? See earlier comments about Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, Boller. Any moron can be a good steward provided that the team builds the offense around his strengths and limitations. I like how the Redskins are reviving the Little Smurf theme with the wideouts. Why not?

I have not gone through the entire NFC yet, but if this division was in the AFC, I'd say only the division winner will make the playoffs. The other teams look to be cruising for a 6-8 win season.

Got the blues

Just wanted to share this amazing trio of songs to come out my iTunes: A.C. Reed, "These Blues is Killing Me," Junior Wells, "I'm Gonna Move to Kansas City," and Blind Willie McTell with Curley Weaver, "Honey It Must Be Love." Wow. Maybe it's the Friday afternoon beer ears. Or maybe not.

AFC North preview

The Steelers are surely the cream of the AFC North. No doubt about it.

We have Cowher, Dick LeBeau, a very good offensive line. I've been high on Max Starks since the day he was drafted. We have plenty of talent in the ball-handling department. Concerns about Roethlisberger, for me, are similar to the concerns people voice about J.P. Losman or Kyle Boller: overstated. Roethlisberger showed he's a cut above those guys, yes. The similarity is the equation of the QB's fortunes with the team's fortunes. The Steelers are going to run the ball. If Roethlisberger can hand it off, we should be OK. And Roethlisberger doesn't play defense (though, if he starts throwing a lot of interceptions, he could be the curse of the defense). All in all, the Steelers bring a well-coached, solid-all-around team into the season.

The Ravens don't look as good on paper to me. Brian Billick has been more than competent and has a 61-42 career record. Jonathan Ogden's line is getting old and showing wear. They run-block well, but they need to pass-block better if the Ravens want improvement from Boller. Their criminal fullback might stay healthy or might not. Either way, Chester Taylor can replace him capably. Anthony Wright is not much of an insurance policy for Kyle Boller; I'd much rather have Tommy Maddox. Derrick Mason, yawn. The defense will be good. We'll see if the scheme change helps Ray Lewis, or if unmasks some sort of natural, inevitable decline.

The Bungles are the easy choice for the third spot. They have a lot of upside, sure, but they still have to take that to the window and cash it in. Is Marvin Lewis a great coach - one as good as Cowher or Billick? We still have not seen evidence that he is. I would have thought he'd fix the defense first thing, but in 2004 it still looked crappy to me. Maybe Odell Thurman can change that. Or maybe new DC Chuck Bresnahan can. I dunno. I'll believe in improvement when I see it. I need to do more research on their O-line, but the news that their LT hobbled through the preseason and received a lot of "challenges" to improve -- that's not good news. Jon Kitna is a capable backup for Carson Palmer; there's little reason to worry about the QB position. The other ball-handlers look competent enough to me.

And then there's the Browns. They have a new GM, a new coach, a new defensive scheme. The GM cleaned house, squandering resources in the process. There's a good saying about homeowning. When you buy a new house, wait a year before you do anything major with the landscaping. Those shrubs you hate in the spring might be gorgeous in the fall. That tree by the house might be convenient in summer. You just don't know. Whenever I see a new coach or GM start by trading, say, his entire defensive line to one of the league's most experienced coaches for a bag of peanuts, then I expect woe and woe. Long-term rebuilding programs are naive undertakings, and I expect a world of pain for Browns' fans this year. That said, Cleveland is a good football town, and, as always, we can expect them to channel some unexpected mojo here and there. Maybe in the second half they won't totally suck. And of course they'll approach their games with Pittsburgh like it's their Super Bowl.

Game 139: D-backs at Pirates

Dustin Nippert makes his major league debut vs. Josh Fogg. Eldred's on the bench again. Game just started. Lead-off double on the sixth pitch for Counsell.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em pool: You are invited

Rowdy has invited you to join a PigPool at Pigskin.com (http://www.pigskin.com).

If you are a member of Pigskin.com, click the following link to join the pool: http://www.pigskin.com/Pool/PoolSignUp.asp?PID=78 and enter poolname: "Honest Wagner Pick 'em Pool" and password: "51yardparker".

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Here are the rules for the pool, if you care to accept this invitation.

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Thanks and good luck to all who participate in this free pick 'em pool.

Setting the course for 2006

John Perrotto considers ten manager options for the Pirates. Eleven if you include the new Mack. Paul Meyer writes up Art Howe's interest.

The main value of the hiring might be as a PR move, crazy as that sounds. It depends on how thoroughly they will clean house, and it depends on how much the new manager will be empowered to select his own coaches. Spin Williams will find another job quickly, I'd guess, if the Bucs release him.

From Perrotto's list, I think I like Grady Little the best. The team can't go wrong with Leyland or Macha. Getting the Mets to pay for Art Howe would be fun, but it would do nothing to improve the team's national image as a subsidized loser.

Another thing. Lately I've been thinking about the whole "Come Hungry" theme in the context of this year's disappointing season. I liked the ads they produced - Oliver Perez burning cookies etc. - and didn't see it as advertising ballpark food.

There may have been two problems with it. First, it suggests that fans won't come hungry; it implies (and thus reinforces) apathy (that certainly exists). Second, it's needlessly deferential, like it's appropriate for a gang of kids to approach the season as a group of ambitious apprentices.

Next year I hope they roll out the new team with no apologies and a lot of attitude. Maybe they could work the words "bloody," "murderous," and "revenge" into the marketing slogan. "Come for the blood, stay for the murder, savor the revenge." Cast David Littlefield as Captain Ahab err Stede Bonnet chasing down the St. Louis behemoth.

Grady Little is hardly Blackbeard, but they could dress him up, make him wear an eyepatch and pegleg. He does mutter and garble his sentences with in an authentic Pirate-like way. With coaching, he could probably add a vicious, spitting edge to his vocal deliveries to the TV cameras.

OK, I'm being silly. I just hope they don't come back fawning in the spring, hat in hand, fresh-faced and courting the public with innocent looks and promises of plucky progress. Even if that's all they have to offer, it might just continue the learned helplessness theme.

Game 138: D-backs at Pirates

Brandon Webb vs. Mark Redman. Top of the third, Bucs down 3-0. Redman just got yanked. Enter RV.

No more McClendon

The candidates. The Q & A.

AFC West preview

The Denver Broncos will probably have the most in the win column when the 2005 AFC West standings are etched in stone.

Every year the Broncos bring back the same coaches – Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, Larry Coyer, Rick Dennison – and every year they do more or less the same thing. Coyer, the former Pitt defensive coordinator, has the shortest tenure (six years with the team, starting his third as defensive coordinator). How do they keep these people year after year? Perhaps by cultivating the reputation of being “predictable.” Denver rarely does anything earn the preseason buzz. This year, they went out of their way to look stupid, drafting Maurice Clarett.

The Broncos return their usual all-word offensive line. Even if they are low-down dirty cheaters, I still respect any franchise that never forgets that there’s no more important unit on the team.

Jake Plummer is more than competent. The Broncos also two or three running backs who will collect impressive stats if given the ball. I remember Ron Dayne’s Wisconsin days, and I remember Mike Anderson’s earlier NFL success. With that line, either one of those guys will be a star. The wideouts are great, Stephen Alexander fits. This offense looks solid and formidable.

Starting in front of some great linebackers are a bunch of Browns. What the hell is going on here? Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren has flashes of brilliance for Cleveland that punctuated more interminable periods of injury and idiocy. Good luck with that, Denver. The DBs should be fine.

Like the Colts, the Broncos also have a nice home-field advantage. The Broncos play in the thin air of Denver. That must be good for a half-win every year. This year they get a long list of sea-level opponents to throttle.

There’s a wide gap between Denver and San Diego, the team I’d select as second-best in this group. Marty Schottenheimer is no rookie from the college ranks. Once upon a time, he was “Master” to Bill Cowher, “Student,” and the Steelers flew to Kansas City every season for a MNF game at Arrowhead.

The Bolts are another team with a solid quarterback and a power running game. Carl Mauck, the guy who coached the Chargers’ o-line when they stunned Pittsburgh in the mid-90s, returns to coach a group that dominated opponents last year. Antonio Gates can catch the ball. The Chargers feature some nondescript wideouts, but I doubt that matters.

On defense, the Bolts are lead by Wade Phillips, one of the best defensive coordinators. They were solid last year against the run, but they were pretty incompetent against the pass. I don’t see any reason to expect them to be much better this year. They drafted a pass-rushing end in the first round, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to play for awhile. Quentin Jammer has been a bust, but he the Bolts used a high pick on him. And he has a cool football name. So they continue to light a candle every night and hope he finally lives up to expectations.

I love the Raiders, who are, on the highway of NFL franchises, the quirky independent restaurant surrounded by faceless corporate big boxes. And I love how the Raiders always hire a couple of guys to wear some kind of silly costume, stand on the edge of the parking lot, and shake some kind of noisemaker to attract folks stuck in traffic.

On paper, they appear to have all the answers. But I’ll believe it when I see it. Norv Turner leads a team constructed on a Rube Goldbergesque “can’t miss” plan. Odds are, it will miss. There are too many questionable parts to this plan and when any one part fails, the whole plan is scrapped. Dave Littlefield would disapprove of the team’s “flexibility” – they have none.

First, Kerry Collins, a troubled, unreliable, moody goon with an amazing arm. Hasn’t he always played best when expectations were lowest? Throw in Randy Moss, who is not getting younger and yes, you know it, is built for a dome.

What really matters is the offensive line. They have Rowdy favorite Robert Gallery on the right side. The line looks OK, and I suppose Lamont Jordan can be a feature back. But Moss will be a distraction. After standing outside in a Mexican poncho and sombrero, shaking maracas and wearing a fake mustache, he’s going to expect to be a large part of the offense. And who knows what Kerry Collins will do.

On defense, the Raiders appear to have solved the offensive-line focussed division by adopting a 6-1 scheme. As you have probably heard by now, they will start two ginormous men at outside linebacker. This could produce gaudy results against the run, but I wonder how durable they’ll prove. I’m not sold on the idea as a long-term, full-season strategy. We’ll see. The DBs will have less margin of error if these guys take turns playing Statue.

The Chiefs look outclassed. They are old in the wrong places, too. They have young help on the way, but I doubt the old guys – e.g. Willie Roaf – will still be a tremendous asset when the young guys get it on. And what are they doing with Kendrell Bell? The Chiefs have also hired Dewayne Washington.

Not much else to say about the Chiefs; I could go on and on, but every preseason prognosticator has to take a break somewhere, and I’m taking mine here.

McClendon fired

So long, Mac.

Maholm hosts Javier Vazquez and the D-backs starting right now. Bay robs Royce Clayton of a jack in the first at-bat. Yikes.

AFC South preview

The Indianapolis Colts look like they will continue to be the best of the AFC South. I don’t think Tony Dungy’s little-quick-guys defense can win a championship in a league that’s moving more and more back to the power running game. Dungy remains a great coach, however, and with his offense and his home field (a dome), the Colts should continue to outscore most opponents.

The move to the four-team division increased Indy’s home-field advantage, I think, because they now enjoy five non-divisional games at home. Teams just don’t like playing non-divisional road games on turf. They never have. The risk of injury is too great. The Colts whipped their non-divisional opponents last year, going 5-0 against them. Curiously, over the last three years, they’ve gone 10-5 hosting non-divisional opponents and 7-2 hosting their division rivals, who have not been powerhouses. The Colts will beat anyone at home. This formula: high-powered offense, cheap, no-frills, undersized defense, and a dome home looks pretty good if you like 10 wins a year and going nowhere in the playoffs.

Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston look evenly matched. They look like good teams on paper, but since most teams look great on paper going into week one, these teams don’t look good. They are probably looking at seven or eight wins if things go well.

Jacksonville’s new offensive coordinator, Carl Smith, has rebuilt their offense. That’s always a bad sign I think. They return Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor, two plays with a lot of upside. Both will get hurt. Leftwich will play through his injury, Steve McNair-style, while Fred Taylor will surely miss time. The rest of Jack Del Rio’s team will have to keep chopping wood.

One player to watch is Matt Jones, a converted quarterback in the style of Steeler greats Ward and Randle El. The Steelers have been on to something here for a few years now; it’s one good thing from the Stewart era. I keep expecting more teams to imitate their success. We’ll see what Jones can contribute for the Jags.

The offensive line looks mediocre, and the defensive line looks great. Unless the Jags weather the usual injury cascades much better than their rivals, it’s hard to see how they match up, on paper, with the rest of the AFC.

The same could be said for the Titans, but I think they could be a surprising 8-8 or 7-9 team. Jeff Fisher is a great coach, the franchise has been ably and stably managed Floyd Reese, and there are plenty of players left after the salary-cap purge. Like Jacksonville, they also have a new offense. I don’t yet understand how Chow’s offense will differ from earlier Jeff Fisher offenses.

Steve McNair will be back with Billy Volek, a great backup. Chris Brown and Travis Henry are running backs. So long as their line holds up, those guys can get the job done. Drew Bennett, Tyrone Calico, and now former Steeler Troy Edwards has arrived, with his old Jacksonville playbook I’m sure. I still fear Steve McNair, so I expect this crew could score many points.

On defense, the Titans have players in Albert Haynesworth and Keith Bullock. The secondary looks weak, however, so any injury to Tennessee’s pass-rushing specialists could have Kansas City ‘04-type consequences. Sure, the Titans look mediocre on paper, but this is just the kind of franchise that I’d expect to slip under the radar and do some damage while no one is looking.

The Texans may be getting their act together. Dom Capers is back with his Lloyd McClendon-ish career record. David Carr has been improving, but I wonder how much of his body he still has. There’s no doubt that the 140 sacks he has absorbed has taken more than a couple years off the end of his career. I expect this guy will not be the quarterback of the next winning Texans team.

His offensive line returns intact and more experienced. They won’t suck, and their run-first offense should be effective, especially with the addition of uber-blocking tight end Mark Bruener.

The defense will depend on a ragtag group of young linebackers. This defense surely has more upside than, say, Jacksonville’s, but who knows how long it will take these guys to play well together.

All in all, the AFC South looks pretty underwhelming.

AFC East preview

All hail the Buffalo Bills – they are my pick as most likely 2005 AFC East champion. What’s not to like? They are coached by a former Steeler, Mike Mularkey, who I regret scapegoating (just a little bit) for that miserable season. They are managed by a former Steeler, Tom Donahoe, who is not incompetent and clearly learned many things in the black and gold. After losing five of their last six games in 2004, their team came together to finish 9-3. They would have finished 10-2 and made the playoffs, but they had to play the Steelers in the final week.

Jon Paul Losman hails from Tulane, so that doubles the chip he should have on his shoulder for the widespread overreaction to his performance in some meaningless preseason game. He’s a young player, he’s going to struggle. And people will continue to doubt him because he has a lousy name with no stud-quarterback connotations. FWIW, I just visited his website and voted in a poll, predicting 30+ TD passes for him this year. The results of the poll are pretty surprising.

The Bills won’t ask him to throw too many passes. They will run the ball, mainly putting it in the hands of Willis McGahee, who, wisely, will not be spared as many carries as he can handle. If they wear him out, they have that big rookie, Lionel Gates, to bruise in his place. And as we saw in Cleveland, Kelly Holcomb is a Mike Tomczak or Tommy Maddox-type backup: he can be great in relief. So I don’t see the QB position as problem for Buffalo. Not yet at least.

Also note they more or less returned the same offensive line that played so well in the final two-thirds of 2004. Mike Gandy replaces Jason Jennings, but that looks like no big difference to me.

Eric Moulds should be good for half a season, and maybe Roscoe Parrish can contribute if/when Moulds wears out. While the rest of the wideouts are pretty undistinguished, receivers are pretty overrated in my view.

The defense loses Rowdy-favorite Pat Williams, but you can’t go to the well too often with dudes as big as Pat Williams. His replacements look plenty competent. The linebackers, which include London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes, are first-rate. The secondary looks strong too.

With former Steeler Bobby April running the special teams, I see no cause for worry there, either.

Losman is unproven, but he won’t have to do much. The Bills play four of their first six games at home. This does not leverage the cold weather advantage much, but I can’t see the non-divisional guests, Houston and Atlanta, risking their ACLs too much on Buffalo’s turf.

New England remains strong, of course, but this team has sustained heavy losses from the coaching ranks. Since the NFL game is so fast and complex, and since NFL players are so young, I think continuity of care matters a great deal. New coordinators on both sides raises two big question marks for me.

Tom Brady’s health also appears to be some concern, especially since the Patriots are inexplicably turning to Doug Flutie if Brady misses time. Their wideouts won’t repeat their near-perfect 2004 season. Their running game is as good as it gets, so perhaps I make too much of the threat of Flutie.

The back half of the Patriots’ defense also looks weaker, where the Patriots will play, among others, former Steelers Chad Brown and Chad Scott. I’m not saying J.P. Losman is poised to exploit what might be a weak secondary, but I have doubts about the Patriots this year. So I rank them second.

New York also starts the year with a lot of change and a potentially damaged and/or fragile quarterback. When I hear that a team is installing a whole new offense, and that the new offense is very different than the old one, then I expect something like five losses in the first six games.

The Jets also appear to have had a particularly weak draft. Throw in what they have in Doug Jolley, a backup tight end that cost them a first-round pick, and it’s hard to see where the team might expect sudden, helpful contributions from really young guys.

They sport a great offensive line. I love that Mawae and wish he was a Steeler. Curtis Martin and Derrick Blaylock can run the ball. Lava Coles will be red hot so long as Pennington can get the ball to him.

The defense looks decent, but not as good as Buffalo’s. They will miss Jason Ferguson. Jonathan Vilma may be all-world, but when I hear “Defensive Rookie of the Year,” I think Kendrell Bell and worry for him.

The Miami team is a mess. With a new coach who is a rookie to the NFL, I regard 2005 as a rebuilding year. Their draft looks good.

Any choice between Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, and A.J. Feeley does not inspire confidence, but quarterbacks can be overrated. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown should be good. Tight end Randy McMichael can catch. And Hudson Houck can coach so there is promise for the offensive line.

Jason Taylor is as good as they get, but the entire defense moves to a new style with the new coach. Maybe Miami catches lightning in a bottle and everything works from the start. I think the odds are against it, but it could happen. In the best-case scenario, Miami puts it together in the second half.

On paper, none of these teams look terrible. To me, the Bills stand out.

On plenty, poverty, and infamy

Here’s my last word on the disaster. Only Piracy and Steeling after this one, I promise.

What I saw last week was waste. It was perhaps the most wasteful spectacle I’ve experienced in my life. Katrina was going to cause suffering. Katrina was going to damage the Gulf Coast, no matter how prepared Americans were for the hurricane. But Katrina did not do so much damage, and she did not cause so much suffering, without a good deal of assistance.

The waste of lives, first and foremost, warrants enough mourning to change your life. And the waste of happiness, the waste of peace, the waste of prosperity warrants just as much serious reflection. The people of New Orleans, better than the people of any other American city, understand that it is not leisure that is not used. New Orleans had plenty of problems and plenty of suffering, but its people also demonstrated a gracious living and an unusal appreciation of the basic elements of life. It is outrageous that the survivors of the flood suffered as much as they did. And it is outrageous that they will be robbed of their way of life for months and months, if not years and years.

New Orleans also demonstrated an easy hospitality to even the most inconsiderate of tourists. All told, my trips to New Orleans, strung together, would not add up to more than a month. But New Orleans taught me, for lack of a better way to express it, how to parade. New Orleans taught me how to eat and how to drink. The people of New Orleans have immeasurably added to my happiness. And you've heard that before, I'm sure. I think it's fair to say, we need New Orleans. That place has to be there. It is critical to the balance in the way of life that has made America so prosperous. So we will miss the example of the city for as long as it’s gone. And it’s a terrible thing to live without.

But we northerners are hard-headed, pragmatic, and materialistic. We are insufficiently moved by some loss of joy. Yet for this, the disaster should shock us further. Even by the coldest of standards, the waste of resources is stunning, and it comes at a time when the nation can least afford it.

First, we knew this disaster was coming. As I watched the city fill with water, I remembered Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard: A little neglect may breed great mischief. Or, for want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost, and for want of a horse the rider was lost. There’s more to that old proverb; in some versions, the loss of the rider causes the loss of a battle, a war, and a nation.

Americans enjoy unprecedented prosperity. If we like the way we live, and if we want to preserve that way of life, then we have to elect politicians who will invest our gains wisely. As Poor Richard says, Get what you can, and what you get hold.

Before the disaster, scientists warned that it would take about a billion dollars to build the proper levees. After the disaster, one economist estimated that the storm destroyed 100 billion dollars of American wealth. A billion in time, Poor Richard might say, saves ninety-nine. If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as of getting.

The nation is worse than broke. We were far into debt before the hurricane landed, and we will only be so much more in debt as we rebuild some fraction of the lost personal property and public infrastructure. Remember: When you run in debt, you give to another power over your liberty. It’s not unreasonable to regard the national debt as a grave danger to American liberty.

Perhaps because we have no surplus, no “rainy day fund,” the consequences of this great and sudden expense are compounded. Avoiding the blame for this mind-numbing waste of life and savings brought out the very worst in both our elected leaders and our more partisan neighbors. Truly, as Poor Richard says, The second vice is lying, the first is running in debt.

Mainly they lied about the “great job” and “hard work” that went into the planning and orchestration of the relief effort. Great Talkers, little Doers. They fell to blaming one another when the public responded with skepticism. To some extent, this I can understand. Politicians will be politicians. 'Tis hard for an empty bag to stand upright. But then so many private citizens abandoned their duty to the commonweal and gave themselves over to shameless partisan bickering. As if you could spin such disaster! Ignorance leads Men into a Party, and Shame keeps them from getting out again. It is stunning to hear private citizens interpret what happened as no great fault of every elected official involved.

History shows that such folly will be punished. Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty, and supped with infamy. We are not so rich that our prosperity cannot be destroyed through prideful incompetence.

We must hold these people accountable, if only to teach a hard lesson to the younger generation of politicians who will soon replace them. Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. And, since they scarce will learn in that, we must make the lesson abundantly clear. We just witnessed an utterly incompetent orchestration of resources, and we have to hold these incompetents responsible for the consequent additional and needless destruction of life, liberty, and happiness.

I have nothing else to say about it. To those who read this far, thank you for your time.

Tomorrow I will be back with some thoughts about the AFC East and the AFC South.

Getting ready for some football

After ignoring the delusion-inspiring NFL preseason, I'm booking up on the look of the NFL for 2005.

I saw a widespread changing of the guard and changing of the game in the major leagues this year. I wonder if we'll see the same in the NFL.

Enjoy your Labor Day. Here's hoping you are not at work this morning.

Game on

Life goes on. Today at 1:30 it's Kip Wells facing Jerome Williams and the Cubs. I've got some cold Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (5.6% alcohol) for later. Mack is 3-for-3 with 2 jacks vs. Jerome lifetime. Bucs are only one game behind the Rockies for Worst NL Record.

In other Bucs news, Fogg is out of the rotation. He's taking it like a man: "The young guys they have coming up have been doing really well. More power to those guys." Mac on Fogg; "He's throwing strikes," McClendon said. "But they're the kind of strikes that don't come back."

The Bucs have collected over $27,000 for Hurricane relief in the past two days outside PNC Park. You can also donate on Federal and General Robinson streets. Or on the Red Cross link to the top left. Please give what you can.

Ball Catch Lose

Sat on the porch today and played catch with Rowdietta, my 3-yo daughter. I taught her to throw overhand. She can bring the heat.

I asked her if she was going to play baseball when she grows up. "No," she said,"I'm going to play Ball Catch Lose." Then she laughed a good three-year-old cackle.

I started to ask, "What is that?" But I stopped because I realized I knew the answer.

Later, I sat in a bar in my Pirates jersey with a pint of Bass. I actually barked at the bartender, some ditzy person, for serving a pint with two inches of head. She topped it off. I watched some college football but couldn't focus much on it. The football, like the beer, went down well and hit the spot. I always drink Bass when I really Need One. It has a high alcohol content. I spent the rest of the day drinking some beer from St. Mary's, PA. It was "honestly refreshing" as advertised, but I honestly can't remember the name of it. I want to say Stoudt but I know that wasn't it.

It looks the situation in New Orleans will stabilize on the death front, but I'm still sure we'll be living with bad economic consequences for years and years.

Do you know what caused the Great Depression? Callous indifference.

Open thread

If you have any notes you'd like to make or leave, here's a place for them.

Incompetence

Look at the news today. The last time I saw one event dominating the Yahoo! news page, wall to wall, top to bottom, left to right, was 9/11. There is no evidence to suggest this story will abate any time soon, either. If anyone thinks life in America will get back to normal tomorrow, or Monday, or a week from now, I guess they are kidding themselves.

I doubt I'll have anything to say about football or baseball for awhile. It's not like this is my job, or like I have a boss, or like I can't do whatever the hell I want to do (or not do) with this blog.

The disaster has shown that our government, at all levels, is seriously, seriously, seriously incompetent. I don't mean that as any kind of partisan political statement. In fact, I have nothing but unbridled contempt for political partisans. If I'm going to mindlessly root for one side or another, I'll root for a baseball team. If I'm going to throw myself into competition and willfully abandon reason, I'd do it for a trivial matter. Politics and government is far too important to debate like it's Michigan vs. Ohio State or Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh.

Our government failed, catastrophically, at every level, from the Mayor to the President.

The incompetence. The waste. The callous neglect. Of human life, of our national heritage, of natural resources.

I'm speechless. I have nothing else to say right now.

Still pissed

How about you?

Here's what the Mayor says. He's a little bit to blame, I think, him and every other elected official in the city, for not making hurricane preparation a required study for every public school, for every grade, in every year. But he's far more sinned against than sinning. And now is not the time to point the finger at this guy.

And the Mayor's right about this: Keep talking about it. That's the best thing you can do. Keep talking about it.

This response to Katrina disgusts me

I have a hard time with the internet this week. I'm only drawn to news that infuriates me. I am stunned, shocked, outraged, disappointed, angry about the callous neglect of the city's protection in the years and days before the storm and flooding.

No one can say "no one saw this coming." The ability of our government to accept the risk of experiencing this current situation - "hey, let's not plan for a disaster; we'll just hope it doesn't happen" - disgusts me. Here's a striking example of an unbelievably stupid and downright callous acceptance of risk. Any rational government, by the people and for the people, would have done more before and after. They had years to shore up the levees, days to schedule an airlift. We all knew on Friday night that Katrina was gathering strength and heading for the gulf coast.

Leave the behavior of the isolated refugees aside. Since there are tens of thousands, it should be no surprise that it contains a criminal element. There is nothing the people of New Orleans could have possibly done to deserve such betrayal from their state and federal government. How in the world could the government and media so callously disregard one of our nation's greatest cities? The people of New Orleans have contributed immeasurably to this nation's culture, history, and economy. And the Speaker of the House says maybe we consider not rebuilding it? Can we get him to resign tomorrow?

The incompetence of the response to this tragedy is beyond abominable. When the situation is under control, in weeks or months or years, we better see resignations, firings, and people going to jail for this. There is no excuse, not one, none, no excuse at all for this historic, record-shattering, mind-blowing display of incompetence. I don't hear any apologies from the people responsible for this incompetence - just excuses - and this makes their behavior all the more criminal and hateful.

I have a high tolerance for incompetence, as most regular readers of this blog can attest. But this is mind-numbing. No one can say we didn't see this coming. Anyone who does is either an incompetent moron or a bald-faced liar with no shred of decency.

I'm also stunned that the NFL football players and baseball players continue to play games. After 9/11, the league postponed games only after members of the New York "Jets" said "No, we won't do this, it's wrong." The New Orleans Saints will play their home opener in Texas for what good reason? What was the point of making that decision while tens of thousands of people remained trapped in the city? And today they play games and exhibition games for what reason?

The mainstream media needs to cover this story now. And non-stop until the situation is tenable. Let it the coming weeks become one long study of the problem. Let every citizen get a college seminar's worth of education on the subject. If they want something else from TV, let them turn it off and get back to work.

The question is this: How did it happen? Why did it happen? When might it happen again? We need to hear people talking about this. And talking about this.

When we're convinced we won't ever live to see such a disgusting display of governmental incompetence again, then we can talk about football and baseball and other diversions from the daily industrious routine.

Day off

Nothing to see here, move along.

Game 133: Pirates at Brewers

Underway. The Bucs have come back to take the lead, 5-4.

A srike-thrower

Biloxi native Paul Maholm was great last night. Kovacevic reports here.

Saints to play in Texas

Looks like the NFL is determined to avoid the cancellation or postponement of games.

New Orleans

Read this email from a rescue worker.

The bad news with Hurricane Katrina

From this AP story:

Recovery will take so long, [Coordinating Director Bill Lokey] said, that some [FEMA] workers could spend their entire career working on Katrina.

No apology for the hurricane posts: even if Piracy and New Orleans go way way back (think Jean Lafitte), I don't need the excuse. This is an enormous disaster, not just for New Orleans and surrounding areas, but for the whole country. As this unfolds, in agonizing slow motion, we are all losing much, much more than the damn Superdome.

What's especially painful is the lack of preparation. Those people in the Superdome ... how exactly will they be evacuated? Where will they park the C-130s needed to carry them away?

The focus on the looting: could that be more wrong-headed? What good is the property in buildings that are soon to be immersed in contaminated flood waters?

It looks to me like we are losing the city permanently. They'll have to build much taller levees, pump the water out of the city, let it dry out, and then raze everything. How many years will it take to accomplish this? How much money? And who is paying for it?

I wonder: the next time I visit the French Quarter, will it be in some meticulously-recreated Las Vegas attraction?

Game 132: Pirates at Brewers

So what were Maholm's radar gun readings? Brian wants to know.

Red Cross needs money

I love New Orleans, one of the great cities of the USA.

If you have money, send it here.

Life in the Superdome

Story here. I wonder if dome architects won't consider such use for a stadium from now on, and especially when the stadiums are built with tax dollars.

I'd be surprised if any of these people ever set foot in the Superdome after they are allowed to leave next week.

Red Cross time

You can donate to the American Red Cross here.

New Orleans

Here's hoping for a last-minute reprieve. This is terrible.

... I know the Weather Service exaggerates sometimes. They have to get your attention, after all. But this isn't a foot of snow coming toward NO.

If those estimates are realized, we're talking 10-20 times the number of people killed on 9/11, the end of the baseball season, and no NFL games for awhile. No way the Saints will play in the Superdome on 9/18.

This is not to trivialize the likely cost of this storm - who gives a damn about sports when such things happen. But let's put things in perspective. That is serious carnage forecast by NWS. Life, all over the country, will not proceed as usual come Tuesday. The country has never experienced anything like they are forecasting. Camille did not land so near New Orleans in 1969.

Everyone, all over the country, should brace themselves. And get ready to give blood.

Game 131: Reds at Pirates

Luke Hudson and Kip Wells. One-thirty.