All hail Wilbur Miller for the Zimbalist report in Baseball Prospectus.
I haven't been a huge fan of the theory that payroll determines winning percentage. I was all about the 2005 plan and thought it would work. But WTF do I know? The season since the 30-30 mark has been more shameful than I ever would have expected. And yeah, throwing money at the problem just might help.
8:10 PM EST. Ian Snell vs. Chris Carpenter. Furmaniak makes his Bucco debut playing 2B and batting eighth.
Squaring around too late on a first-pitch sinker from Mulder, Mark Redman broke the tip of his left (throwing) index finger fouling off a bunt tonight. Since he's likely out for the year, odds are he'll pick up his $4,500,000 player option to return in 2006.
Redman finishes the year at 5-15. In 178.1 IP, he gave up 188 H, 18 HR, 56 BB to 101 Ks for a 4.90 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Not good, but not as terrible as the record might indicate. Redman's ERAs by month Apr-Sept: 2.78, 3.43, 4.01, 6.94, 7.63, 11.57. Let's hope he can reset that come April '06. Wow, there should be quite a logjam competing for '06 rotation spots.
Brian O'Neill thinks it has something to do with being outslugged and outwalked.
Also some interest in Mackanin's bunts. McClendon had a reputation for bunting a lot which he didn't deserve. I think it was that his pitchers were good bunters and bunted a lot. E.g., Kris "Super-bunter" Benson (insert "laying one down" joke here) had 15 in 2004.
But forget about laying down bunts. Talking to fans, it sounds like the new dipshit thing the Pirates do is not field them correctly.
Mark Redman vs. Mark Mulder. Bucs up 2-0 in the fourth. Eldred's 2-for-2. Wiggy's also 2-for-2 and just barreled over Molina, but couldn't jar the ball loose.
Link here.
Graham would like to manage at the big-league level some day.
True or false: the younger batch - the newest arrivals - play fundamentally better baseball than the older younger batch. Indy people, Altoona people: do the guys down there field bunts, for example, better than the guys up here?
Steelers up 20-7 at halftime. Ben's 7-for-9 and looking good. All hail the beautiful 63 yard TD strike to Randle El and Big Money's first NFL TD!
Still plenty of time to join the pool.
Usually, Week 1 is an easy week where good teams meet expectations. Most years, everyone comes out above .500 against the spread. The rest of the season is tough. The usual, easy success in week 1 will drive you crazy in weeks 2 through 6 as you seek to regain that touch.
The trick with the first week, I think, is simply picking winners. You have to start the season with a clear idea of the relative strengths of the teams. You don't want to borrow another person's ratings. Sports Illustrated will only lead you astray. You have to make up your own. I evaluate the teams by looking at the coaching staff, the offensive line, the ball handlers, the defense, and the special teams. Continuity, while boring, is promising. Rarely do new coaches or new schemes work well right from the beginning.
So far, I rank the division this way. AFC East: Buffalo, New England, Jets, Miami. AFC North: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland. AFC West: Denver, San Diego, Oakland, Kansas City. AFC South: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston. Buffalo, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, and Indianapolis are my playoff teams.
NFC looks like this. The NFC North will be a toss-up between Green Bay, Detroit, and Chicago. They are equally average. Minnesota no good. NFC East, Philly runs aways with it. I count five teams in the AFC as good as the Eagles. The NFC has a bigger second tier. The Eagles should make the championship game again and play some one of St. Louis, Atlanta, Carolina, maybe New Orleans or, maybe Green Bay if they get home playoff games and Favre is still rolling in January.
In the rest of the NFC East, I see little separating Dallas, Washington, and the NY Giants. The Rams should win the West, with Seattle a clear second. San Fran and Arizona fight for third. The NFC South is the strongest division. Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans are all good. I put them on a level with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis. Tampa Bay is solid, but probably finishing with 7 or 8 and going nowhere.
So here are the picks I'm making this morning. I took New England. FWIW, you always take the Super Bowl winner in week 1. I am taking Pittsburgh, Denver, Buffalo, and San Diego as winners. Not sure about the Colts on the road in the Sunday night game at Baltimore. I'm taking Washington because I expect they'll be better this year, maybe even surprisingly good. And gimme the New York Jets and Detroit because I think their opponents are overrated.
Only the Detroit pick is counterintuitive and kind of sassy. 70% of the pigskin.com players are taking Green Bay. I expect that simply taking the majority choice on each game will bring a player 9 wins.
Another thing about making picks: you don't want to be too eager. I will go back and pick up the rest of the games later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Use this thread to make your predictions.
... all done. Updated the NFC picks, above. Gimme Seattle, who is a better team than Jacksonville. The Saints to cover. The Bengals to win big enough. The Bucs to win straight up in Minnesota. Giants take Arizona apart. The Rams destroy the 49ers. The Falcons squeak by Philadelphia.
Ollie returns, facing Luke Hudson. Just underway right now. Bases loaded full of Bucs already. McLouth led off with a single, Jack got beaned, then Bay walked. Bucs seek to build a lead bigger than Mesa can blow in the 9th.
I like the NFC about as much as I like the American League. If some of these comments seem stupid, consider me ill-informed.
This division looks like the AFC South. The Eagles look great. The rest of the division looks pretty crappy and destined for disappointment and failure.
First, them Eags. Andy Reid's career record: 71-37. Suck that, Brian Billick. They more or less return last year's team. And they add a bunch of players from what looks to me like a pretty good draft. They put up with TO, and I guess there's no point arguing with a team that's done as well as they have.
I don't know how to rank the rest of the division. The Cowboys are not as good as some people think, and the Redskins are not as bad as others say.
Let's talk Cowboys. Bill Parcells has not impressed me of late. The line sports Rob Petitti of Pittsburgh and looks real good on paper. Drew Bledsoe is good when he's healthy. Julius Jones reminds me of Fred Taylor. I don't see great depth behind either player. They have guys that catch the ball. On defense, they switch schemes in what looks to me like a high-risk, medium reward move. Will Dat Nguyen suffer in a 3-4 the way Ray Lewis did? We'll see.
Tom Coughlin of the Giants is another coach that has not impressed me lately. They put crazy pressure on Eli Manning, who may or may not be able to handle it. The rest of the team looks pretty average to me, but saying that probably exposes my ignorance of the merits of guys like Frank Walker. With little to bitch about, I suppose I should rank the Giants a game above the Cowboys.
The Redskins have been the whipping boy of the preseason prognosticators. You have to predict someone to have a terrible win-loss record, so you pick on the team that did it the year before. Pirate fans know something about this.
Is Joe Gibbs now a doddering moron? His 146-75 career record is a Double Andy Reid. When you bring Andy Reid's svelte profile to mind, that's a weighty record.
I like any team that takes care of the O-line first, and the Redskins looks pretty set there. The noise about Patrick Ramsey? See earlier comments about Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, Boller. Any moron can be a good steward provided that the team builds the offense around his strengths and limitations. I like how the Redskins are reviving the Little Smurf theme with the wideouts. Why not?
I have not gone through the entire NFC yet, but if this division was in the AFC, I'd say only the division winner will make the playoffs. The other teams look to be cruising for a 6-8 win season.
Just wanted to share this amazing trio of songs to come out my iTunes: A.C. Reed, "These Blues is Killing Me," Junior Wells, "I'm Gonna Move to Kansas City," and Blind Willie McTell with Curley Weaver, "Honey It Must Be Love." Wow. Maybe it's the Friday afternoon beer ears. Or maybe not.
The Steelers are surely the cream of the AFC North. No doubt about it.
We have Cowher, Dick LeBeau, a very good offensive line. I've been high on Max Starks since the day he was drafted. We have plenty of talent in the ball-handling department. Concerns about Roethlisberger, for me, are similar to the concerns people voice about J.P. Losman or Kyle Boller: overstated. Roethlisberger showed he's a cut above those guys, yes. The similarity is the equation of the QB's fortunes with the team's fortunes. The Steelers are going to run the ball. If Roethlisberger can hand it off, we should be OK. And Roethlisberger doesn't play defense (though, if he starts throwing a lot of interceptions, he could be the curse of the defense). All in all, the Steelers bring a well-coached, solid-all-around team into the season.
The Ravens don't look as good on paper to me. Brian Billick has been more than competent and has a 61-42 career record. Jonathan Ogden's line is getting old and showing wear. They run-block well, but they need to pass-block better if the Ravens want improvement from Boller. Their criminal fullback might stay healthy or might not. Either way, Chester Taylor can replace him capably. Anthony Wright is not much of an insurance policy for Kyle Boller; I'd much rather have Tommy Maddox. Derrick Mason, yawn. The defense will be good. We'll see if the scheme change helps Ray Lewis, or if unmasks some sort of natural, inevitable decline.
The Bungles are the easy choice for the third spot. They have a lot of upside, sure, but they still have to take that to the window and cash it in. Is Marvin Lewis a great coach - one as good as Cowher or Billick? We still have not seen evidence that he is. I would have thought he'd fix the defense first thing, but in 2004 it still looked crappy to me. Maybe Odell Thurman can change that. Or maybe new DC Chuck Bresnahan can. I dunno. I'll believe in improvement when I see it. I need to do more research on their O-line, but the news that their LT hobbled through the preseason and received a lot of "challenges" to improve -- that's not good news. Jon Kitna is a capable backup for Carson Palmer; there's little reason to worry about the QB position. The other ball-handlers look competent enough to me.
And then there's the Browns. They have a new GM, a new coach, a new defensive scheme. The GM cleaned house, squandering resources in the process. There's a good saying about homeowning. When you buy a new house, wait a year before you do anything major with the landscaping. Those shrubs you hate in the spring might be gorgeous in the fall. That tree by the house might be convenient in summer. You just don't know. Whenever I see a new coach or GM start by trading, say, his entire defensive line to one of the league's most experienced coaches for a bag of peanuts, then I expect woe and woe. Long-term rebuilding programs are naive undertakings, and I expect a world of pain for Browns' fans this year. That said, Cleveland is a good football town, and, as always, we can expect them to channel some unexpected mojo here and there. Maybe in the second half they won't totally suck. And of course they'll approach their games with Pittsburgh like it's their Super Bowl.
Dustin Nippert makes his major league debut vs. Josh Fogg. Eldred's on the bench again. Game just started. Lead-off double on the sixth pitch for Counsell.
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(2) Picks must be made through the pigskin.com website.
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John Perrotto considers ten manager options for the Pirates. Eleven if you include the new Mack. Paul Meyer writes up Art Howe's interest.
The main value of the hiring might be as a PR move, crazy as that sounds. It depends on how thoroughly they will clean house, and it depends on how much the new manager will be empowered to select his own coaches. Spin Williams will find another job quickly, I'd guess, if the Bucs release him.
From Perrotto's list, I think I like Grady Little the best. The team can't go wrong with Leyland or Macha. Getting the Mets to pay for Art Howe would be fun, but it would do nothing to improve the team's national image as a subsidized loser.
Another thing. Lately I've been thinking about the whole "Come Hungry" theme in the context of this year's disappointing season. I liked the ads they produced - Oliver Perez burning cookies etc. - and didn't see it as advertising ballpark food.
There may have been two problems with it. First, it suggests that fans won't come hungry; it implies (and thus reinforces) apathy (that certainly exists). Second, it's needlessly deferential, like it's appropriate for a gang of kids to approach the season as a group of ambitious apprentices.
Next year I hope they roll out the new team with no apologies and a lot of attitude. Maybe they could work the words "bloody," "murderous," and "revenge" into the marketing slogan. "Come for the blood, stay for the murder, savor the revenge." Cast David Littlefield as Captain Ahab err Stede Bonnet chasing down the St. Louis behemoth.
Grady Little is hardly Blackbeard, but they could dress him up, make him wear an eyepatch and pegleg. He does mutter and garble his sentences with in an authentic Pirate-like way. With coaching, he could probably add a vicious, spitting edge to his vocal deliveries to the TV cameras.
OK, I'm being silly. I just hope they don't come back fawning in the spring, hat in hand, fresh-faced and courting the public with innocent looks and promises of plucky progress. Even if that's all they have to offer, it might just continue the learned helplessness theme.
Brandon Webb vs. Mark Redman. Top of the third, Bucs down 3-0. Redman just got yanked. Enter RV.
The Denver Broncos will probably have the most in the win column when the 2005 AFC West standings are etched in stone.
Every year the Broncos bring back the same coaches – Mike Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, Larry Coyer, Rick Dennison – and every year they do more or less the same thing. Coyer, the former Pitt defensive coordinator, has the shortest tenure (six years with the team, starting his third as defensive coordinator). How do they keep these people year after year? Perhaps by cultivating the reputation of being “predictable.” Denver rarely does anything earn the preseason buzz. This year, they went out of their way to look stupid, drafting Maurice Clarett.
The Broncos return their usual all-word offensive line. Even if they are low-down dirty cheaters, I still respect any franchise that never forgets that there’s no more important unit on the team.
Jake Plummer is more than competent. The Broncos also two or three running backs who will collect impressive stats if given the ball. I remember Ron Dayne’s Wisconsin days, and I remember Mike Anderson’s earlier NFL success. With that line, either one of those guys will be a star. The wideouts are great, Stephen Alexander fits. This offense looks solid and formidable.
Starting in front of some great linebackers are a bunch of Browns. What the hell is going on here? Courtney Brown and Gerard Warren has flashes of brilliance for Cleveland that punctuated more interminable periods of injury and idiocy. Good luck with that, Denver. The DBs should be fine.
Like the Colts, the Broncos also have a nice home-field advantage. The Broncos play in the thin air of Denver. That must be good for a half-win every year. This year they get a long list of sea-level opponents to throttle.
There’s a wide gap between Denver and San Diego, the team I’d select as second-best in this group. Marty Schottenheimer is no rookie from the college ranks. Once upon a time, he was “Master” to Bill Cowher, “Student,” and the Steelers flew to Kansas City every season for a MNF game at Arrowhead.
The Bolts are another team with a solid quarterback and a power running game. Carl Mauck, the guy who coached the Chargers’ o-line when they stunned Pittsburgh in the mid-90s, returns to coach a group that dominated opponents last year. Antonio Gates can catch the ball. The Chargers feature some nondescript wideouts, but I doubt that matters.
On defense, the Bolts are lead by Wade Phillips, one of the best defensive coordinators. They were solid last year against the run, but they were pretty incompetent against the pass. I don’t see any reason to expect them to be much better this year. They drafted a pass-rushing end in the first round, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to play for awhile. Quentin Jammer has been a bust, but he the Bolts used a high pick on him. And he has a cool football name. So they continue to light a candle every night and hope he finally lives up to expectations.
I love the Raiders, who are, on the highway of NFL franchises, the quirky independent restaurant surrounded by faceless corporate big boxes. And I love how the Raiders always hire a couple of guys to wear some kind of silly costume, stand on the edge of the parking lot, and shake some kind of noisemaker to attract folks stuck in traffic.
On paper, they appear to have all the answers. But I’ll believe it when I see it. Norv Turner leads a team constructed on a Rube Goldbergesque “can’t miss” plan. Odds are, it will miss. There are too many questionable parts to this plan and when any one part fails, the whole plan is scrapped. Dave Littlefield would disapprove of the team’s “flexibility” – they have none.
First, Kerry Collins, a troubled, unreliable, moody goon with an amazing arm. Hasn’t he always played best when expectations were lowest? Throw in Randy Moss, who is not getting younger and yes, you know it, is built for a dome.
What really matters is the offensive line. They have Rowdy favorite Robert Gallery on the right side. The line looks OK, and I suppose Lamont Jordan can be a feature back. But Moss will be a distraction. After standing outside in a Mexican poncho and sombrero, shaking maracas and wearing a fake mustache, he’s going to expect to be a large part of the offense. And who knows what Kerry Collins will do.
On defense, the Raiders appear to have solved the offensive-line focussed division by adopting a 6-1 scheme. As you have probably heard by now, they will start two ginormous men at outside linebacker. This could produce gaudy results against the run, but I wonder how durable they’ll prove. I’m not sold on the idea as a long-term, full-season strategy. We’ll see. The DBs will have less margin of error if these guys take turns playing Statue.
The Chiefs look outclassed. They are old in the wrong places, too. They have young help on the way, but I doubt the old guys – e.g. Willie Roaf – will still be a tremendous asset when the young guys get it on. And what are they doing with Kendrell Bell? The Chiefs have also hired Dewayne Washington.
Not much else to say about the Chiefs; I could go on and on, but every preseason prognosticator has to take a break somewhere, and I’m taking mine here.
Maholm hosts Javier Vazquez and the D-backs starting right now. Bay robs Royce Clayton of a jack in the first at-bat. Yikes.
The Indianapolis Colts look like they will continue to be the best of the AFC South. I don’t think Tony Dungy’s little-quick-guys defense can win a championship in a league that’s moving more and more back to the power running game. Dungy remains a great coach, however, and with his offense and his home field (a dome), the Colts should continue to outscore most opponents.
The move to the four-team division increased Indy’s home-field advantage, I think, because they now enjoy five non-divisional games at home. Teams just don’t like playing non-divisional road games on turf. They never have. The risk of injury is too great. The Colts whipped their non-divisional opponents last year, going 5-0 against them. Curiously, over the last three years, they’ve gone 10-5 hosting non-divisional opponents and 7-2 hosting their division rivals, who have not been powerhouses. The Colts will beat anyone at home. This formula: high-powered offense, cheap, no-frills, undersized defense, and a dome home looks pretty good if you like 10 wins a year and going nowhere in the playoffs.
Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Houston look evenly matched. They look like good teams on paper, but since most teams look great on paper going into week one, these teams don’t look good. They are probably looking at seven or eight wins if things go well.
Jacksonville’s new offensive coordinator, Carl Smith, has rebuilt their offense. That’s always a bad sign I think. They return Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor, two plays with a lot of upside. Both will get hurt. Leftwich will play through his injury, Steve McNair-style, while Fred Taylor will surely miss time. The rest of Jack Del Rio’s team will have to keep chopping wood.
One player to watch is Matt Jones, a converted quarterback in the style of Steeler greats Ward and Randle El. The Steelers have been on to something here for a few years now; it’s one good thing from the Stewart era. I keep expecting more teams to imitate their success. We’ll see what Jones can contribute for the Jags.
The offensive line looks mediocre, and the defensive line looks great. Unless the Jags weather the usual injury cascades much better than their rivals, it’s hard to see how they match up, on paper, with the rest of the AFC.
The same could be said for the Titans, but I think they could be a surprising 8-8 or 7-9 team. Jeff Fisher is a great coach, the franchise has been ably and stably managed Floyd Reese, and there are plenty of players left after the salary-cap purge. Like Jacksonville, they also have a new offense. I don’t yet understand how Chow’s offense will differ from earlier Jeff Fisher offenses.
Steve McNair will be back with Billy Volek, a great backup. Chris Brown and Travis Henry are running backs. So long as their line holds up, those guys can get the job done. Drew Bennett, Tyrone Calico, and now former Steeler Troy Edwards has arrived, with his old Jacksonville playbook I’m sure. I still fear Steve McNair, so I expect this crew could score many points.
On defense, the Titans have players in Albert Haynesworth and Keith Bullock. The secondary looks weak, however, so any injury to Tennessee’s pass-rushing specialists could have Kansas City ‘04-type consequences. Sure, the Titans look mediocre on paper, but this is just the kind of franchise that I’d expect to slip under the radar and do some damage while no one is looking.
The Texans may be getting their act together. Dom Capers is back with his Lloyd McClendon-ish career record. David Carr has been improving, but I wonder how much of his body he still has. There’s no doubt that the 140 sacks he has absorbed has taken more than a couple years off the end of his career. I expect this guy will not be the quarterback of the next winning Texans team.
His offensive line returns intact and more experienced. They won’t suck, and their run-first offense should be effective, especially with the addition of uber-blocking tight end Mark Bruener.
The defense will depend on a ragtag group of young linebackers. This defense surely has more upside than, say, Jacksonville’s, but who knows how long it will take these guys to play well together.
All in all, the AFC South looks pretty underwhelming.
All hail the Buffalo Bills – they are my pick as most likely 2005 AFC East champion. What’s not to like? They are coached by a former Steeler, Mike Mularkey, who I regret scapegoating (just a little bit) for that miserable season. They are managed by a former Steeler, Tom Donahoe, who is not incompetent and clearly learned many things in the black and gold. After losing five of their last six games in 2004, their team came together to finish 9-3. They would have finished 10-2 and made the playoffs, but they had to play the Steelers in the final week.
Jon Paul Losman hails from Tulane, so that doubles the chip he should have on his shoulder for the widespread overreaction to his performance in some meaningless preseason game. He’s a young player, he’s going to struggle. And people will continue to doubt him because he has a lousy name with no stud-quarterback connotations. FWIW, I just visited his website and voted in a poll, predicting 30+ TD passes for him this year. The results of the poll are pretty surprising.
The Bills won’t ask him to throw too many passes. They will run the ball, mainly putting it in the hands of Willis McGahee, who, wisely, will not be spared as many carries as he can handle. If they wear him out, they have that big rookie, Lionel Gates, to bruise in his place. And as we saw in Cleveland, Kelly Holcomb is a Mike Tomczak or Tommy Maddox-type backup: he can be great in relief. So I don’t see the QB position as problem for Buffalo. Not yet at least.
Also note they more or less returned the same offensive line that played so well in the final two-thirds of 2004. Mike Gandy replaces Jason Jennings, but that looks like no big difference to me.
Eric Moulds should be good for half a season, and maybe Roscoe Parrish can contribute if/when Moulds wears out. While the rest of the wideouts are pretty undistinguished, receivers are pretty overrated in my view.
The defense loses Rowdy-favorite Pat Williams, but you can’t go to the well too often with dudes as big as Pat Williams. His replacements look plenty competent. The linebackers, which include London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes, are first-rate. The secondary looks strong too.
With former Steeler Bobby April running the special teams, I see no cause for worry there, either.
Losman is unproven, but he won’t have to do much. The Bills play four of their first six games at home. This does not leverage the cold weather advantage much, but I can’t see the non-divisional guests, Houston and Atlanta, risking their ACLs too much on Buffalo’s turf.
New England remains strong, of course, but this team has sustained heavy losses from the coaching ranks. Since the NFL game is so fast and complex, and since NFL players are so young, I think continuity of care matters a great deal. New coordinators on both sides raises two big question marks for me.
Tom Brady’s health also appears to be some concern, especially since the Patriots are inexplicably turning to Doug Flutie if Brady misses time. Their wideouts won’t repeat their near-perfect 2004 season. Their running game is as good as it gets, so perhaps I make too much of the threat of Flutie.
The back half of the Patriots’ defense also looks weaker, where the Patriots will play, among others, former Steelers Chad Brown and Chad Scott. I’m not saying J.P. Losman is poised to exploit what might be a weak secondary, but I have doubts about the Patriots this year. So I rank them second.
New York also starts the year with a lot of change and a potentially damaged and/or fragile quarterback. When I hear that a team is installing a whole new offense, and that the new offense is very different than the old one, then I expect something like five losses in the first six games.
The Jets also appear to have had a particularly weak draft. Throw in what they have in Doug Jolley, a backup tight end that cost them a first-round pick, and it’s hard to see where the team might expect sudden, helpful contributions from really young guys.
They sport a great offensive line. I love that Mawae and wish he was a Steeler. Curtis Martin and Derrick Blaylock can run the ball. Lava Coles will be red hot so long as Pennington can get the ball to him.
The defense looks decent, but not as good as Buffalo’s. They will miss Jason Ferguson. Jonathan Vilma may be all-world, but when I hear “Defensive Rookie of the Year,” I think Kendrell Bell and worry for him.
The Miami team is a mess. With a new coach who is a rookie to the NFL, I regard 2005 as a rebuilding year. Their draft looks good.
Any choice between Gus Frerotte, Sage Rosenfels, and A.J. Feeley does not inspire confidence, but quarterbacks can be overrated. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown should be good. Tight end Randy McMichael can catch. And Hudson Houck can coach so there is promise for the offensive line.
Jason Taylor is as good as they get, but the entire defense moves to a new style with the new coach. Maybe Miami catches lightning in a bottle and everything works from the start. I think the odds are against it, but it could happen. In the best-case scenario, Miami puts it together in the second half.
On paper, none of these teams look terrible. To me, the Bills stand out.
Here’s my last word on the disaster. Only Piracy and Steeling after this one, I promise.
What I saw last week was waste. It was perhaps the most wasteful spectacle I’ve experienced in my life. Katrina was going to cause suffering. Katrina was going to damage the Gulf Coast, no matter how prepared Americans were for the hurricane. But Katrina did not do so much damage, and she did not cause so much suffering, without a good deal of assistance.
The waste of lives, first and foremost, warrants enough mourning to change your life. And the waste of happiness, the waste of peace, the waste of prosperity warrants just as much serious reflection. The people of New Orleans, better than the people of any other American city, understand that it is not leisure that is not used. New Orleans had plenty of problems and plenty of suffering, but its people also demonstrated a gracious living and an unusal appreciation of the basic elements of life. It is outrageous that the survivors of the flood suffered as much as they did. And it is outrageous that they will be robbed of their way of life for months and months, if not years and years.
New Orleans also demonstrated an easy hospitality to even the most inconsiderate of tourists. All told, my trips to New Orleans, strung together, would not add up to more than a month. But New Orleans taught me, for lack of a better way to express it, how to parade. New Orleans taught me how to eat and how to drink. The people of New Orleans have immeasurably added to my happiness. And you've heard that before, I'm sure. I think it's fair to say, we need New Orleans. That place has to be there. It is critical to the balance in the way of life that has made America so prosperous. So we will miss the example of the city for as long as it’s gone. And it’s a terrible thing to live without.
But we northerners are hard-headed, pragmatic, and materialistic. We are insufficiently moved by some loss of joy. Yet for this, the disaster should shock us further. Even by the coldest of standards, the waste of resources is stunning, and it comes at a time when the nation can least afford it.
First, we knew this disaster was coming. As I watched the city fill with water, I remembered Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard: A little neglect may breed great mischief. Or, for want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost, and for want of a horse the rider was lost. There’s more to that old proverb; in some versions, the loss of the rider causes the loss of a battle, a war, and a nation.
Americans enjoy unprecedented prosperity. If we like the way we live, and if we want to preserve that way of life, then we have to elect politicians who will invest our gains wisely. As Poor Richard says, Get what you can, and what you get hold.
Before the disaster, scientists warned that it would take about a billion dollars to build the proper levees. After the disaster, one economist estimated that the storm destroyed 100 billion dollars of American wealth. A billion in time, Poor Richard might say, saves ninety-nine. If you would be wealthy, think of saving as well as of getting.
The nation is worse than broke. We were far into debt before the hurricane landed, and we will only be so much more in debt as we rebuild some fraction of the lost personal property and public infrastructure. Remember: When you run in debt, you give to another power over your liberty. It’s not unreasonable to regard the national debt as a grave danger to American liberty.
Perhaps because we have no surplus, no “rainy day fund,” the consequences of this great and sudden expense are compounded. Avoiding the blame for this mind-numbing waste of life and savings brought out the very worst in both our elected leaders and our more partisan neighbors. Truly, as Poor Richard says, The second vice is lying, the first is running in debt.
Mainly they lied about the “great job” and “hard work” that went into the planning and orchestration of the relief effort. Great Talkers, little Doers. They fell to blaming one another when the public responded with skepticism. To some extent, this I can understand. Politicians will be politicians. 'Tis hard for an empty bag to stand upright. But then so many private citizens abandoned their duty to the commonweal and gave themselves over to shameless partisan bickering. As if you could spin such disaster! Ignorance leads Men into a Party, and Shame keeps them from getting out again. It is stunning to hear private citizens interpret what happened as no great fault of every elected official involved.
History shows that such folly will be punished. Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty, and supped with infamy. We are not so rich that our prosperity cannot be destroyed through prideful incompetence.
We must hold these people accountable, if only to teach a hard lesson to the younger generation of politicians who will soon replace them. Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. And, since they scarce will learn in that, we must make the lesson abundantly clear. We just witnessed an utterly incompetent orchestration of resources, and we have to hold these incompetents responsible for the consequent additional and needless destruction of life, liberty, and happiness.
I have nothing else to say about it. To those who read this far, thank you for your time.
Tomorrow I will be back with some thoughts about the AFC East and the AFC South.
After ignoring the delusion-inspiring NFL preseason, I'm booking up on the look of the NFL for 2005.
I saw a widespread changing of the guard and changing of the game in the major leagues this year. I wonder if we'll see the same in the NFL.
Enjoy your Labor Day. Here's hoping you are not at work this morning.
Life goes on. Today at 1:30 it's Kip Wells facing Jerome Williams and the Cubs. I've got some cold Sierra Nevada Pale Ale (5.6% alcohol) for later. Mack is 3-for-3 with 2 jacks vs. Jerome lifetime. Bucs are only one game behind the Rockies for Worst NL Record.
In other Bucs news, Fogg is out of the rotation. He's taking it like a man: "The young guys they have coming up have been doing really well. More power to those guys." Mac on Fogg; "He's throwing strikes," McClendon said. "But they're the kind of strikes that don't come back."
The Bucs have collected over $27,000 for Hurricane relief in the past two days outside PNC Park. You can also donate on Federal and General Robinson streets. Or on the Red Cross link to the top left. Please give what you can.
Sat on the porch today and played catch with Rowdietta, my 3-yo daughter. I taught her to throw overhand. She can bring the heat.
I asked her if she was going to play baseball when she grows up. "No," she said,"I'm going to play Ball Catch Lose." Then she laughed a good three-year-old cackle.
I started to ask, "What is that?" But I stopped because I realized I knew the answer.
Later, I sat in a bar in my Pirates jersey with a pint of Bass. I actually barked at the bartender, some ditzy person, for serving a pint with two inches of head. She topped it off. I watched some college football but couldn't focus much on it. The football, like the beer, went down well and hit the spot. I always drink Bass when I really Need One. It has a high alcohol content. I spent the rest of the day drinking some beer from St. Mary's, PA. It was "honestly refreshing" as advertised, but I honestly can't remember the name of it. I want to say Stoudt but I know that wasn't it.
It looks the situation in New Orleans will stabilize on the death front, but I'm still sure we'll be living with bad economic consequences for years and years.
Do you know what caused the Great Depression? Callous indifference.
Look at the news today. The last time I saw one event dominating the Yahoo! news page, wall to wall, top to bottom, left to right, was 9/11. There is no evidence to suggest this story will abate any time soon, either. If anyone thinks life in America will get back to normal tomorrow, or Monday, or a week from now, I guess they are kidding themselves.
I doubt I'll have anything to say about football or baseball for awhile. It's not like this is my job, or like I have a boss, or like I can't do whatever the hell I want to do (or not do) with this blog.
The disaster has shown that our government, at all levels, is seriously, seriously, seriously incompetent. I don't mean that as any kind of partisan political statement. In fact, I have nothing but unbridled contempt for political partisans. If I'm going to mindlessly root for one side or another, I'll root for a baseball team. If I'm going to throw myself into competition and willfully abandon reason, I'd do it for a trivial matter. Politics and government is far too important to debate like it's Michigan vs. Ohio State or Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh.
Our government failed, catastrophically, at every level, from the Mayor to the President.
The incompetence. The waste. The callous neglect. Of human life, of our national heritage, of natural resources.
I'm speechless. I have nothing else to say right now.
How about you?
Here's what the Mayor says. He's a little bit to blame, I think, him and every other elected official in the city, for not making hurricane preparation a required study for every public school, for every grade, in every year. But he's far more sinned against than sinning. And now is not the time to point the finger at this guy.
And the Mayor's right about this: Keep talking about it. That's the best thing you can do. Keep talking about it.
I have a hard time with the internet this week. I'm only drawn to news that infuriates me. I am stunned, shocked, outraged, disappointed, angry about the callous neglect of the city's protection in the years and days before the storm and flooding.
No one can say "no one saw this coming." The ability of our government to accept the risk of experiencing this current situation - "hey, let's not plan for a disaster; we'll just hope it doesn't happen" - disgusts me. Here's a striking example of an unbelievably stupid and downright callous acceptance of risk. Any rational government, by the people and for the people, would have done more before and after. They had years to shore up the levees, days to schedule an airlift. We all knew on Friday night that Katrina was gathering strength and heading for the gulf coast.
Leave the behavior of the isolated refugees aside. Since there are tens of thousands, it should be no surprise that it contains a criminal element. There is nothing the people of New Orleans could have possibly done to deserve such betrayal from their state and federal government. How in the world could the government and media so callously disregard one of our nation's greatest cities? The people of New Orleans have contributed immeasurably to this nation's culture, history, and economy. And the Speaker of the House says maybe we consider not rebuilding it? Can we get him to resign tomorrow?
The incompetence of the response to this tragedy is beyond abominable. When the situation is under control, in weeks or months or years, we better see resignations, firings, and people going to jail for this. There is no excuse, not one, none, no excuse at all for this historic, record-shattering, mind-blowing display of incompetence. I don't hear any apologies from the people responsible for this incompetence - just excuses - and this makes their behavior all the more criminal and hateful.
I have a high tolerance for incompetence, as most regular readers of this blog can attest. But this is mind-numbing. No one can say we didn't see this coming. Anyone who does is either an incompetent moron or a bald-faced liar with no shred of decency.
I'm also stunned that the NFL football players and baseball players continue to play games. After 9/11, the league postponed games only after members of the New York "Jets" said "No, we won't do this, it's wrong." The New Orleans Saints will play their home opener in Texas for what good reason? What was the point of making that decision while tens of thousands of people remained trapped in the city? And today they play games and exhibition games for what reason?
The mainstream media needs to cover this story now. And non-stop until the situation is tenable. Let it the coming weeks become one long study of the problem. Let every citizen get a college seminar's worth of education on the subject. If they want something else from TV, let them turn it off and get back to work.
The question is this: How did it happen? Why did it happen? When might it happen again? We need to hear people talking about this. And talking about this.
When we're convinced we won't ever live to see such a disgusting display of governmental incompetence again, then we can talk about football and baseball and other diversions from the daily industrious routine.
Looks like the NFL is determined to avoid the cancellation or postponement of games.
From this AP story:
Recovery will take so long, [Coordinating Director Bill Lokey] said, that some [FEMA] workers could spend their entire career working on Katrina.
No apology for the hurricane posts: even if Piracy and New Orleans go way way back (think Jean Lafitte), I don't need the excuse. This is an enormous disaster, not just for New Orleans and surrounding areas, but for the whole country. As this unfolds, in agonizing slow motion, we are all losing much, much more than the damn Superdome.
What's especially painful is the lack of preparation. Those people in the Superdome ... how exactly will they be evacuated? Where will they park the C-130s needed to carry them away?
The focus on the looting: could that be more wrong-headed? What good is the property in buildings that are soon to be immersed in contaminated flood waters?
It looks to me like we are losing the city permanently. They'll have to build much taller levees, pump the water out of the city, let it dry out, and then raze everything. How many years will it take to accomplish this? How much money? And who is paying for it?
I wonder: the next time I visit the French Quarter, will it be in some meticulously-recreated Las Vegas attraction?
I love New Orleans, one of the great cities of the USA.
If you have money, send it here.
Story here. I wonder if dome architects won't consider such use for a stadium from now on, and especially when the stadiums are built with tax dollars.
I'd be surprised if any of these people ever set foot in the Superdome after they are allowed to leave next week.
Here's hoping for a last-minute reprieve. This is terrible.
... I know the Weather Service exaggerates sometimes. They have to get your attention, after all. But this isn't a foot of snow coming toward NO.
If those estimates are realized, we're talking 10-20 times the number of people killed on 9/11, the end of the baseball season, and no NFL games for awhile. No way the Saints will play in the Superdome on 9/18.
This is not to trivialize the likely cost of this storm - who gives a damn about sports when such things happen. But let's put things in perspective. That is serious carnage forecast by NWS. Life, all over the country, will not proceed as usual come Tuesday. The country has never experienced anything like they are forecasting. Camille did not land so near New Orleans in 1969.
Everyone, all over the country, should brace themselves. And get ready to give blood.
Brian writes:
I went to the Indianapolis Indians game tonight against the Columbus Clippers to see Oliver Perez pitch..Here's his line:
1 2/3 pitched, 7 hits, 6 earned, 2 walks 0 k's 1 wild pich, 1 hit batsmen, 2 homeruns
Needless to say, he had no control and very un-Oliver like velocity. He was topping out at 91-92 and just getting punished.
Even the outs were hard hit.
I left after the third inning, but from what I saw Jose Bautista is quite a player. He made at least 4 plays over there at 3rd tonight and one of them was a diving stab of a line drive that stopped the bleeding for Oliver. He also had a hard hit single and didn't look overmatched at all.
Craig Wilson looked pretty good out there in the field and while he didn't get a hit while I was there, he did draw two walks.
Ronny Paulino looks like a big league catcher back there too. He handled Oliver's wildness pretty well (His control was TERRIBLE) and you can tell he is a leader on that field.
That's all I've got - If you have any questions about anything else I saw - let me know!
All hail Brian. Thanks for the report.
Seven o'clock. Weather's not looking too great with the likelihood of rain, but I guess they get the game in. Eric Milton and Josh Fogg.
Hitting the wire tonight is an AP story by Alan Robinson on McClendon's view of his contract situation.
Good things come to those who wait. I can think of no reason why Littlefield, even if he wants Lloyd back next year, would need to inform him of that before October.
I don't think a manager change would do much to change things, but I admit that I don't know half the story. Continuity of care, as they say in the daycare business, makes a huge difference on young people. Are rookies major-league toddlers? Maybe some of them.
And there must be off-the-field factors that go into a decision like this. Is McClendon very unpopular with the fans? Do the Pirates hire polling firms to find out? Since the team is in the business of selling tickets, I could understand letting a perfectly good manager go just because the fans would be more excited by a change of leadership. An owner or GM who gets into the habit of switching managers often - as PR, scapegoat-sacrificing stunts - pretty much sucks. But there's no point in never making a change, either.
What I learned from Robinson's article is that McClendon appears to genuinely want to come back. I did wonder if he might not be ready for something new. All the losing has to wear on you. Even if he was itching to finish the year and go fishing, I wouldn't expect him to ever say such a thing. But something about these quotes has me thinking that he does want to be back here. That should count for something.
I'm prepared for just about anything, short of Chuck Tanner returning.
From Indy's newsletter:
CALL-AN-INDIAN -- ZACH DUKE Listen to a grand slam line-up of baseball stories read by Indians players as the Indianapolis Marion County Public Library presents Call-an-Indian. Call (317) 275-4444 to hear former Tribe pitcher Zach Duke read "Bad Dog Dodger."
Someone needs to record this as an mp3 file.
(Thanks to Jason from the comments).
DK reports the Pirates promoted Walker and McCutcheon, so good news on the prospect front. Who will the Bucs send to the Arizona Fall League?
Congratulations to Tony LaRussa for winning all those games.
Tonight the Bucs face Aaron Harang, who has quietly put together a solid season for the Reds. We'll be watching Mark Redman to see what he can do against a lineup that's loaded with lefty-killers. Keep an eye on Wily Mo Pena, for example, who hit two home runs the last time the Reds faced a left-handed starter.
Some guy with a lot of wins against our admirably-overachieving soft-tossing lefty.
Dave Williams for team captain, I say.
This is a great story. And one, I'm sure, that other teams will remember at next year's draft.
Duke fell to the 20th round! Wow. Did he increase his final signing bonus with that gambit? It depends on where he would have gone had he been singing "Pro Ball" to all the scouts.
From yesterday's Q & A by Dejan Kovacevic of the PG:
Only the Pirates' management can mess up next season.That is not to say they will. Only that I see it as being the greatest potential variable.
Leave what is there alone. Get a third baseman through a trade, get a right-handed starter as insurance through free agency, and do the usual tinkering with the bullpen.
Otherwise, work with what is already in place. And by that, I mean ?
Continue to make a priority of the young players in every situation everyday, even if it means temporary setbacks.
Teach, teach , teach. Dismiss the boorish concept that major-leaguers already should know this or that. Work with them, if need be, as if it is their first day in the Gulf Coast League.
Take every measure imaginable to make sure these players get the best instruction, physical conditioning and everything else in the wintertime so there are no ugly surprises in the spring.
Get Bay signed through his arbitration years before he breaks you and, simultaneously, get him feeling rewarded for his massive contributions. Consider Perez, too. He never will be cheaper than with his shopping-cart discount.
And yes, even if there is an outcry back home, make sure there are at least two or three veterans on the team to keep things in line. Some fires already were put out this year. Better to be safe in this regard for next year.
Bottom line: It will not be easy to mess it up.
I agree with everything except the first and last sentence. It will be easy to mess up 2006, and it will be easiest for the players, not the management, to screw it up.
It's fairly obvious how to run the team. And it's fairly obvious that the best qualities management could have are varieties of patience. And say what you want about their taste in players, Littlefield and McClendon have shown a lot more patience with the bottom half of our roster than most fans have.
This is why I think it's a bogus argument, to say that replacing the management, or only replacing the management, would turn the team around: the managers just don't do that much. Cuban or McClatchy, Theo Epstein or Dave Littlefield, Ken Macha or Lloyd McClendon: the difference, I think, is almost always overstated. I don't doubt there's some difference, but I do think that, more often than not, it's greatly exaggerated or misunderstood.
It all comes down to the players. It's dangerous to promote the understanding that they have nothing to do but "be themselves," or "relax and have fun." Because that's not true. If you look at the truly great ballplayers, none of them got to be where they are because they were good at relaxing and having fun. Read everything you can find about Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan, or Greg Maddux, and compare that to what you know about Oliver Perez and Kip Wells. In order for the Pirates to improve in 2006, the players have to improve. And that will take study, sacrifice, perseverance, humility, and a lot of hard work.
Ballplayers work like dogs during the season. It's a hellish job, with all the travel, and one with a unique set of difficulties. Nobody understands what the players go through except the players. But no matter how hard they work in the season, they still have to keep at it in the off-season if they want to get better.
Last year, there was a sense during the off-season that everything might fall into place. Then look at our April. I don't know what the players did in the off-season, but it's obvious that whatever they did, they did wrong. April could not have been a bigger disaster.
If the fans expect better next April, I think they have to make that clear to the players. Framing the situation as one that will inevitably improve - as one in which only the management can fail - does not help. David Littlefield will have little influence on young pitchers who debate, some morning in December, whether or not they should study some film or whether or not they should just go party all week. Lloyd McClendon (or whoever the manager will be) will not be there when a player is tempted to overeat, to not do his maintenance workouts, or to make other bad decisions that will affect his preparation for 2006.
Littlefield could spend six million dollars hiring nannies and personal trainers and additional coaches for the players, so that they have all the help they need to make the off-season something that will prepare them for success in 2006. But if the players don't avail themselves of these resources, I don't see how this can be interpretd as a failure of management.
The responsibility for the team's play at the start of 2006 is on the players, not on the managers. There are some fairly obvious things the owner, the GM, the manager, and the various coaches could do to point these young men in the right direction. But that won't be enough.
These young men have unusually good opportunities to have an unusually lucrative and satisfying career. If they are given the impression that any degree of future success is simply inevitable, they are that much more likely to screw up those opportunities. Management may or may not do all the things on that checklist. What really matters is how much the players contribute to their own improvement.
He'll rub some dirt on it and not miss more than one start. Ed Eagle reports:
Fortunately for the Bucs, X-rays taken during the game were negative. And although Duke was limping around with his foot in a walking boot after the game, he's not expected to miss more than perhaps one start.
All hail that.
Jason Marquis and Zach Duke.
... while you are waiting, read Southpointbucco's post on Wigginton and Noonie at OnlyBucs.
The pitch count that matters is number per inning. And Zach Duke's inning total is one thing, the number of pitches he has thrown this year, another. He has been effective and efficient all year, so the high inning total is somewhat deceptive. I doubt he's thrown that many pitches.
I worry more about a player pitching when he's tired. If he's had four or five days' rest, let him start. If he's ineffective and wears out in any inning, being it inning one or inning eight, then of course you remove him.
If I ran the circus, I'd let him take his regular turn the rest of the season. He needs experience. Let him see the league. Give him tape to study during the winter.
No way would I shut him down just to shut him down. Let him play out the string. Take him out when he labors, and let the inning count go as high as he can drive it. So long as he's not throwing 120 pitches to go five or six innings, I doubt there's anything to worry about. If he's effective and efficient, no one can say he's being poorly managed.
Wigginton's back, as John Perrotto and so many others report.
Sounds like the Bucs will start Mackowiak at second and Wigginton/Sanchez at third vs. righties, and Wigginton at third and Sanchez at second vs. lefties. But that's just a WAG based on the known platoon splits. Wigginton ran warm and freezing cold earlier in the year. Neither Wigginton nor Sanchez is much of an option vs. RHP, but Wigginton hit some righties before this April.
Odds are, Mac will play the shuffle boogie with the oppo research notebook and the Magic 8-ball.
If he's out for some time, the Bucs could call up Bob Probert Ty Wigginton, or they can call up Jose Baustista.
I vote Probert for the rest of the Cardinals series. They are hanging by a thread, physically; throw the wrecking ball at them. If Ty fails to hit like crazy and spark the team, send him down and give Bautista the experience.
Mark Mulder and Josh Fogg. Given the Bucs' record against LHP and against the Cardinals, and given Josh Fogg's record against St. Louis, the odds of the Bucs winning this one must be something like one in five. Our hopes may lie with lefty-killer Freddy Sanchez.
I'll be watching Jose Castillo throughout this homestand, to see if he can start hitting at home.
That should help balance the strange YTD splits for the right-handed slugger.
Sure, Eude Brito was a minor-league lefty a short while ago, but we'll take it. Any excuse for a toast ... so ... all hail Brad Eldred, may it one of hundreds of black-and-gold home runs off left-handed pitching!
...just thought of something. If Brad let his hair grow real long and did not wash it, then we could call him ... El Dread.
He's probably heard that one before ...
The season is winding down quickly. 1:35pm, Mark Redman and someone named Brito.
This Eude Brito throws left-handed, so we should watch to see if the right-handed Brad Eldred can hit him. When he starts pounding the left-handed pitchers, then we'll start see what he could be at this level.
"I don't know if everybody's seeing the end of the tunnel or what, but it just seems like the whole atmosphere around here has changed a little bit over the last 10 days," veteran reliever Rick White said. "I guess you can attribute that to the fact we're playing playoff-contention teams."
As I get over the disappointment of this season, I'm agreeing more and more with those who think the Pirates could contend one of these next few years.
Paul Meyer, who reported that quote, found an even more optimistic scout:
A scout last night suggested "the Pirates are closer to winning than people think. If [Oliver] Perez comes back like he was last season and the kid [Zach Duke] is for real, they have a chance to have the best pitching staff in the league."Rotation?
"Staff," the scout said. "They have two left-handers [Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow] in the bullpen who are in the top 10 percent in the major leagues."
Food for thought -- at least.
Link here.
All hail Brad Eldred for his third big-league walk. Anyone see it and care to share the experience?
... found it on the ESPN pitch-by-pitch: Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Ball, B Eldred walked.
Better than expected! Hoo-raw! Great at-bat, Brad Eldred!
The Phillies were always my favorite opponent for the Pirates back in the 1970s.
Tonight's game begins at seven. Kip Wells faces the Phillies' great rookie pitcher, Robinson Tejeda.
Which Kip will we see tonight? Dr. Kipple, or Mr. Wells?
...way to mess up Tejeda's YTD stats and ROY bid. All the young Bucs!
Look no further for the cause of 13 consecutive losing seasons.
I wonder if the FSM recognizes something like this as "full Pirate regalia."
I sure hope so.
Now at .269 / .311 / .420. I was expecting .275 / .320 / .440. He's .258 / .304 / .445 since the ASB.
Wow. His real name is "Ryan," but everyone knows he'd prefer to be called Rowdy.
Bill Madden For the NY Daily News:
Nobody, not even Willie Randolph - who had vowed his troops would take an aggressive approach to the rookie - could say Duke didn't live up to his advance billing. "A sneaky 91-92 (mph) fastball, great curve and excellent command" was the basic scouting report on the Pirate phenom who, at 6-0 with a 1.87 ERA, is off to one of the most meteoric starts in big-league history.Maybe it was the repeated media questions about being just 2 1/2 games out of the wild-card race despite a deflating 2-4 West Coast road trip, or simply the flush of two efficient wins over the Pirates to start the home stand, but Randolph struck a defiant tone before the game when asked about the prospect of his team facing Duke for the first time.
"I saw him on TV," the Mets manager said. "He's got a good curve, a sneaky fastball and he pitches inside. I was impressed. But we're going to attack him. You don't give him too much respect. He's a young player and you've got to attack him. You don't let him get comfortable."
It was sound enough advice, just easier said than done.
From the get-go Duke settled into a comfort zone, retiring the first 11 Mets until his right fielder, fellow rookie Nate McLouth, broke up the perfecto by nonchalanting Carlos Beltran's routine fly ball to right and allowing it to glance off his glove for a two-base error. Duke, however, was unruffled and proceeded to strike out Cliff Floyd on a 2-2 overhand curve to end the inning.
"It's hardly easy," Duke insisted. "The main thing was I was able to get my two-seamer down in the zone and got a lot of groundouts and I got Floyd on a curve."
Up to then, he'd used just 50 pitches and his Pirate teammates, specifically Brad Eldred, another rookie, and Jose Castillo, had staked him to a 4-0 lead. While Eldred had struck the most crushing blow against Victor Zambrano, a two-run homer in the fourth on an 0-2 letters-high fastball, Castillo had the dubious distinction of twice getting nailed for the third out trying to stretch a double into a triple, after RBI doubles in the second and fourth. It is undetermined if this is any sort of record.
But enough of Castillo. Last night was all about the artistry of Duke, who was not even on the Pirates' 40-man roster at the start of the season, yet, despite his late call-up, must be considered a leading Rookie of the Year candidate.
I wonder if Duke was unsurprised by McLouth's nonchalance because he'd seen it at Altoona.
And here's a good quote, from Dejan Kovacevic's recap:
"He's got a heck of a curveball," [Cliff Floyd] said of Duke. "I hope he'll be around a long time. The game needs guys like him. He can turn a franchise around."
We could use some of that.
And a few years ago, McClendon was in the habit of telling the media that the Pirates had to become better baserunners. This got him a reputation for being a small-minded small-ball manager. Perhaps that's why he stopped talking about baserunning so often. As DK reports:
"It's not for print," McClendon said when asked about Castillo's base running.
Seven o'clock. Victor Zambrano and Zach Duuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuke.
... all hail the Altoona Curve! I like how all the rookies (Duffy, McLouth, Doumit, Eldred) get the start with Duke on the mound.
... all hail Brad Eldred! Now I have to go find another bottle of Marlborough sauvignon blanc ...
I'm starting to realize that the CW has Ben Roethlisberger coming "down to earth" this year. Chuck Delsman, for example:
If you're looking for an NFL player who will fall back to earth this season, try Ben Roethlisberger. I look for him and the Pittsburgh Steelers to struggle and miss the playoffs.
The more people bet against the Steelers, the better their chances. They play better with a chip on their shoulders. Last year they were universally disrespected after the 6-10 season. It's a good thing to see the Roethlisberger-will-be-a-dud meme going. I'll try to promote it with the misleading title of this post.
I don't know if it was Ward's good faith or the abundant magic on Monday Night, but I'm growing more optimistic about this Steeler season. No way Roethlisberger will be as good as he was last year. Well, he'll be better, but there's no way his stats will reflect that. Teams will attack weaknesses that he had (but no one knew about) in 2004. We can expect that. But down to earth? I doubt the guy will be mundane. My point in stating the expectation that he'll look worse on paper is mainly to say that everything went right in the 15-1 season, and the odds are greatly against a repeat of that run. He'll throw a game-ending interception into the end zone this year. When comparing the 2005 Steelers to the 2004 Steelers, you have to see that we can't expect Roethlisberger to be as near-perfect as he was last year.
Speaking of Steeler QBs, Tommy Maddox has always reminded me of Mike Tomczak - great backup. If Roethlisberger misses a game or mightily struggles somewhere, I don't think that impacts the Steelers that terribly, especially if they have Maddox ready to go in his place.
I still think that 9 wins is the most likely result. Before I said 7 before 10, but I'd reverse that now and say 10 before 7. Maybe 11 before 7. I can't expect 11 or more, not at this point, though I wouldn't rule it out.
And I think they'll take the division. They have to be the favorite. I look for the bad teams to be better, so I expect the North will be bunched up. The Bengals and the Browns will pose more difficult tests this year.
Depth does look like the possible problem with this team, but it's not a problem until it becomes a problem. I've liked Max Starks from day one. And once again I think Verron Haynes could break out with health and opportunity. So we'll see. The rest of the preseason will be a meaningless fog. So long as everyone stays healthy, we won't learn much more about this team until the games begin next month.
Dejan Kovacevic reports Josh Fogg may not see too many starts. As with D. Ward and Tike Redman, Josh Fogg got the full set of opportunities to establish himself as a regular. He'll probably leave Pittsburgh, be out a job, and, starting in 2007, catch on with another team. And then go on to contribute 2000 innings over the next dozen years. And maybe win a World Series or two.
Fogg's probably done here, but his career is not over. If wanted to stick around as a Pirate, he picked a bad year to have a bad year. He cleared waivers so the Bucs could even trade him if a contender wanted him right now.
So a number of us have noticed that Eldred twitches and fidgets at the plate these days, and the few of us who saw him at Altoona, don't remember seeing this.
What do we make of that?
Eldred's power potential makes him a must-play, must-keep character for us. Unless Littlefield can replace him with a sure thing - which is doubtful considering the salaries power hitters command - we'll sink or swim with Big Country. I may not like to watch nervous Eldred at the plate, but there's no way I'd rather be watching Darlye Ward, who has worn out his welcome with his still-inconsistent contribution. I had hoped 2005 would be the year he'd be a steady if unspectacular contributor. I also came into the year viewing 2005 as his last chance.
Eldred has struggled each time he has moved up a level. And after the struggles, he calmed down and became one of the best hitters in his league.
The best-case scenario for Eldred's future, I think, is something like Adam Dunn or Russ Branyan. Despite his huge size, Dunn has always drawn walks. His strike zone is big but not so big that every pitch is a strike. Eldred has not shown that patience. Branyan has always showed a dramatic platoon split. A left-handed hitter, Branyan just can't hit lefties. Eldred has not hit lefties, either. Eldred has been above-average (already) against right-handed pitching. Since Eldred is a right-handed hitter, there's no reason to think he won't adjust to big-league left-handed pitching. That may be the point where he emerges as the kind of hitter he can be at this level.
If he turns into a .265 / .325 / 575 hitter, who makes something near the minimum, then he's a real asset. Eventually, hitters with poor K-to-BB ratios and Ginormous Power will draw more walks. Pitchers begin to fear them. Branyan developed into a .325 OBP guy and this year, he's sporting an OBP in the .380s.
Good things come to those who wait. The Pirates have to wait for Eldred. The fans might as well. It would be easier to watch all the games if Eldred's batting posture was a bit more reassuring, but I think we have to wait on this guy.
A good test for the nature vs. nuture argument w/ player development might be our beloved pinch-hitter, Abraham Nunez. Why has he blossomed in St. Louis? Did Tony La Russa teach him to cut down on his strikeouts? Or his improvement more likely the result of him getting older and more experienced?
Did he work harder in the offseason because he'd be starting a new job?
Was he used incorrectly by McClendon? Most of us would yes; we hated to see him pinch-hit so much. Is this why he struck out so much as a Pirate?
Has his effectiveness increased because he's surrounded by greatness? I call this the Charles Johnson effect. He had one good year (2000), in large part, I always thought, because he hit ninth in a stacked Chicago lineup. Does Noonie succeed in St. Louis because his opponents overlook him among so many intimidating players? Did opponents ever regard him as a threat when a Pirate?
I don't know why Noonie has played better than Scott Rolen this year, but I doubt the reason is Tony La Russa's ability to better handle him.
I'd guess it's far more likely that Noonie answered the wake-up call of unemployment with redoubled efforts to improve himself as a player. He was once a prospect (with St. Louis, I think), so it's not like he's ever been without talent.
Should McClendon be fired because there is some Noonie on the current roster?
I just don't accept the idea that the big-league manager has much to do with the success or failure of his individual players.
The Pirates have a waterbug prospect at Altoona. Paul Meyer provides this biography.
Also catch Josh Bonifay on Jose Castillo's defense. Yeah, Charlie is right. We can expect Castillo to post better defensive numbers (see Tuesday's Stats Geek) as he matures.
A lot of interesting stuff, as usual, in the Q & A.
My take on any manager or general manager is this. If he's a rookie, he's going to screw up. If he pays attention, studies the game, and has real problem-solving ability, he's going to get better. If he does not pay attention, does not study the game, and creates more problems then he solves, then he needs to be fired.
I don't have any kind of access or inside information, but I've seen little evidence that McClendon is more a problem-maker than problem-solver. The fact that a lot of raw players leave Pittsburgh and continue to improve is no strike against McClendon; that's like blaming the 6th-grade teacher when the 10th-grade girls grow boobs or get pregnant. I expect every player the Pirates cast off after a few years of service to catch on somewhere else and keep getting better. They have talent and sometimes it takes a lack of security (e.g., getting dumped by the Pirates) to motivate young players to get the most out of it. If players are malingering in Pittsburgh, trying to stay healthy and extend their career into the free agency paydays, then it doesn't matter who is the manager in Pittsburgh. If the additional motivation of finding a new job doesn't help, simple aging and maturing will. Of course young players leave Pittsburgh and keep getting better.
In addition, I'm not impressed with arguments that proceed from the assumption that the manager is the person who is primarily responsible for a player's development. The primary responsibility for a player's development falls to the player. Any good coach or teacher knows this. All the good players know this.
So all things being equal, I would assume that McClendon will be a better manager in 2006 than any rookie manager. I also assume that Littlefield will be a better general manager in 2006 than any rookie general manager. But I'm not terribly qualified to make that decision, so I can only offer that opinion with a shrug.
Seven o'clock. Mark Redman and Kristin Bentley. Bentley's name triggers some kind of memory. I'm not sure what. Anyway, he's pitching a hell of a lot better this year than, say, Kip Wells.
Good Stats Geek this morning.
Is Castillo's defense so Bobby Hillesque? I expected a little more from him with the bat. There's still time.
Why does Castillo hit so poorly at home?
And why does Rob Mackowiak hit so poorly as an outfielder?
Next time, maybe the Stats Geek can interpret some of the crazy splits which characterize our inconsistent players.
And all hail Jason Bay. How long had it been since we won a series in Houston?
A gambler friend of mine offers this rule: if a good team loses to a bad team, bet on the bad team to win again the next day. Everyone thinks no way they lose to them again, but usually, they do just that.
I was skeptical and wanted to see the math when he told me this. With the Astros streaking and due to face first Chicago and second Milwaukee, I admit that's what I thought when we snuck out of dodge with the series win.
For some reason I doubt the Astros would give a playoff start to Wandy Rodriguez.
This preseason game is getting a little silly. Somewhere, fantasy players are snagging Nate Washington off waivers and high-fiving themselves mentally.
Game on in half an hour. I remember the last time the Eagles came to Pittsburgh for a preseason game ... maybe it was the last time ... years ago at Three Rivers. The Steelers stunk it up and lost, but I had a blast anyway.
Wow, I'd like to be as optimistic as Al & Vivek at Football Outsiders. I blame the Bucs ....
The Steelers have NOT established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL. One good season doesn't do this for me. They went 15-1 in 2004, but they were a 6-10 team in 2003. The 2005 season could be like the 2004 season for the Chiefs. The Chiefs went 8-8 in 2002, 13-3 in 2003, and 7-9 in 2004.
Football teams that take their greatness for granted will disappoint their fans. Are the Steelers up to this? I don't know. But ask yourself this: would we have had this kind of contract-holdout distraction one year ago?
I'm not convinced the 2003 record has much bearing on the Steelers' 2005 season, but I'm also not convinced the 2004 season does much to meaningfully predict the 2005 season. I guess any prediction should begin at zero, that is, at 8-8. What are the Steelers showing us right now to suggest they are better than an 8-8 team? Not much, but the same could be said for almost every team in the league. The only exceptions would be the ones that have posted winning season after winning season after winning season.
Another thing. Most of you have been over this before, so forgive me if this is tired stuff by now. Ben Roethlisberger is good, but he's not going to complete 66% of his passes over the course of his career. Dan Marino completed 59%. The all-time completion PCT record-holders are Steve Young (64%), Joe Montana (63%), and Troy Aikman (61%). I'm not predicting disaster for Big Ben, but teams will make adjustments - remember the New England playoff game - and it's not at all likely that he will be as effective in 2005. Even if he is really, really good - say a Hall-of-Fame QB - he's not going to live up to the 2005 standard.
For all we know, he'll be kicking a laundry cart after a 3-5 start. He has to play pretty well for what, another dozen seasons, before anyone should be serious with with Marino / Young / Montana stuff.
And as Scoop always notes, it's been part of Cowher's legacy to delight when expectations are low and disappoint when expectations are high. I'll be keeping my expectations pretty low.
I would not be shocked to see them go 7-9 in 2005. Eight or nine wins may be more likely, but I'd go with seven before I'd go with ten.
So I say, brace yourself, Steeler fans.
What are your thoughts?
A total of 18 of the 30 major-league clubs were within 6½ games of a playoff spot when the weekend began.So, while it's understandable that Pirates' fans think the economic deck is stacked against their favorite team, the truth is there is as much parity in the majors now as there has ever been. While the Pirates have not figured out how to take advantage, increased revenue sharing and a luxury tax have helped competitive balance.
Even the Los Angeles Dodgers still have hopes of making the playoffs.
So what happened? What does it mean to not "take advantage" of the greater parity?
Rick Shrum PG interview with Pirates historian and retired PR whiz Sally O'Leary.
What did your work entail during the early years with the team?O'Leary: We did community days, fan mail. There weren't many promotions until later. One of my biggest jobs was to update statistics every day. I had to go to every home game and keep statistics and a box score. I had to listen to road games because I still had to keep score. We also kept a ledger book of every game, which was handwritten and had details of everything: weather, the umpires, outstanding plays. We also had a page on every player. When we were at Forbes, we didn't have things like a computer or electric typewriter. I didn't even have a calculator. I had a little book that listed percentages that helped me with batting averages.
All hail Sally. Link here.
Beautiful win. Way to stick it to the NL Wild-Card leader.
And three toasts tonight for Dave Williams. All hail that guy for the CG gem.
Murray Chass:
The Pirates plucked Duke, a left-hander from Texas, in the 2001 draft. But they selected him in the 20th round, meaning he was available to every other team in the first 19 rounds. How does a 20th-round pick win his first five decisions in the majors after dazzling five minor leagues in the previous three and a half seasons?The answer is Duke wasn't really a 20th-rounder. He wasn't projected as a first-round pick, but he would most likely have gone within the first five rounds.
"He would have gone higher in the draft," Dave Littlefield, the Pirates' general manager said, "but there was word that he wanted a lot more dollars than he was worth. Since people deemed him unsignable, he was headed to college."
The Pirates, moving belatedly but boldly, intercepted Duke before he matriculated. It was one of the best moves they had made since drafting Roberto Clemente in 1954. "Our scout" -- Grant Brittain -- "did a nice job with him and was able to get him signed," Littlefield said.
Link here.
Two o'clock. Another win at Enron field would make my day. Dave Williams and Ezequiel Astacio.
