Pirate defense

The Pirates are #2 in the National League at turning balls in play into outs. Numbers here, from Baseball Prospectus. (Defensive efficiency glossed here).

Apparently, this is more than luck. From BP basics article by James Click:

When analyzing defensive performance, the most important mental adjustment to make is to hold the defense accountable for every hit on balls that could have been fielded. Initially, this does not seem fair--defense and pitching are almost inseparably entangled. Determining if the causality lies with the pitcher or the fielders is even more perplexing than drawing conclusions about the play itself. This approach certainly requires some refinement, but it removes the decisions of the official scorer from the equation. Bill James suggested this approach in one of his Abstracts in the 1980s, calling the new metric "Defensive Efficiency (DE)." It is, quite simply, the percentage of balls in play fielded by the defense. The best teams are usually around .7300 with the worst around .6900.

So the Bucs look good up there at .716.

They finished last year at 0.687; 2003, 0.693. So what the hell is going on here? Are all the soft-tossing lefties making life that much easier for the defense? Or are these guys (Wilson and Castillo aside) better than they seem?

Nothing wrong with Jack Wilson

Jack Wilson is fine. You start the year hitting .150, it's going to take several months, even if you hit .300, to get your batting average up to a good place.

On May 16 I analyzed the hitting performance of the second three-week period of the season. Looking at Jack I wrote, "all he needs now is a little luck. I expect he'll hit .275 the rest of the way."

In the last two weeks, Jack has hit .283 / .309 / .434. He's only had a few strikeouts in that period (3 in 53 at-bats). He's not going to hit for a lot of power or be an on-base machine (since there's little reason to pitch around him; he has little home-run power and his stature is not, shall we say, as intimidating as Adam Dunn). And he's probably not going to hit .400 for a month and raise the batting average dramatically. The odds are against that. So get over the low batting numbers, I say, and focus on the recent performance. He looks OK to me. I would keep running him out there with a day off here and there against the kinds of pitchers that really give him trouble.

If he keeps that strikeout rate at 5% or so, he's a fine contact hitter. He's qualified to hit near the top of the lineup if one believes, as some do, that a #2 hitter should be able to make contact on demand (for hit-and-runs, for example). He's not the perfect #2 hitter, but he remains a good contact guy with some power (actually, bravery hustle baserunning bravado foot speed: he legs out a good share of doubles and triples). With his defensive ability, he's an asset. Not a superstar, but not an inferior player, either. Bat him seventh or eighth if you can, but I don't think he's so inept with the bat that he needs to be benched or targeted for verbal abuse.

Unless a somewhat-muscular 740 OPS with excellent defense is not good enough, there's no good reason to call him out as part of the problem.

Stats Geeks does number two

Article here. I've also been thinking Mackowiak would make a good no. 2 hitter against righties. Then he's gone and shown some power in the last week, though, making me think No. 5 or No. 6 would also be good.

Hitting, not scoring

Dejan Kovacevic on the carnival of stranded runners. I agree with Mac, this is nothing to worry about. So long as they keep getting on base, sooner or later they will score in big bunches. The only worry is that they stop getting on base. Since I don't see too many Pirates putting up gaudy, unbelievable hitting numbers, I'm not concerned. It's strange to think that they played pretty good baseball but still went, with the help of many one-run losses, something like 3-8 at a stretch.

The legend of Freddy Sanchez

Chapter 3, Chapter 4.

So the Bucs are 1-0 so far on this tough stretch of 26 games.

Game 49: Marlins at Pirates

1:35pm, Al Leiter and Mark Redman.

Game 48: Pirates at Reds

1:15pm. Kip Wells and Brandon Claussen. Claussen is another one of the Reds' pitch-to-contact guys. Few Ks, fewer walks. Problem is (for the Reds, at least), hitters have managed about a 900 OPS on that contact. He's coming off one mediocre start against the Nationals that looks good compared to the string of awful starts preceding it.

Dejan reports that Mac said he'll use the same funky lineup he used yesterday. I'd like to see Wigginton continue to show how hot he can get when he's on a streak. All that has looked decent in his 2003 and 2004 final numbers came in short, intense bursts of productivity.

And how does Wigginton look at first base? Last January, I thought we might see him there. To some extent I buy into the argument that, as a converted second baseman, he ought to be at least decent at a corner, once he learns the position.

As good as he's been, Lawton needs regular rest. I like the idea of Sanchez as our lead-off man against left-handers.

Game 47: Pirates at Reds

7:10pm, Dave Williams and Eric Milton. Milton has not been striking out or walking many batters; hitters have been making regular and solid contact off him.

On performance-enhancing drugs

Read this article, "A Day at the Brain Spa," by Ronald Bailey for Reason online.

The executive could also work in a cup or two of coffee here and there. And regular exercise.

Another one-run game

Bucs are now 3-11 in one-run games. Last year they were 20-26 in one-run games.

Not sure what else to say about that. Sucks to lose.

Game 46: Pirates at Reds

7:10pm. Josh Fogg and Ramon Ortiz.

I was pretty happy when I learned that the Reds signed Ramon Ortiz. So I could say, I've been looking forward to seeing him face the Bucs. I hope I'm not disappointed.

Mackowiak

Dejan Kovacevic reports on the ongoing development of Rob Mackowiak. I noticed some of these trends last week. Now Kovacevic explains what appears to be the basis for Mackowiak's improved plate discipline, and he notes that others have noticed the overall drop in power. Mackowiak has had some extra-base hits in the last week, though I'm not sure if that's been an indication of his power coming around. I'll follow up on that May 15 post sometime early in June.

Kovacevic also reports that Mackowiak has taken over third base against righties. Back in early January we speculated that this might or should happen. Wigginton has been a good part-time player.

This same notebook column describes the respect Ian Snell has earned from McClendon.

...Joe Rutter remembers the day Rob's son, Garrett, was born.

Game 45: Pirates at Reds

Seven o'clock, Oliver Perez at Elizardo Ramirez.

Zen and Zing

Nice piece by Jonathan Mayo on the friendship of Duke and Snell.

Game 44: Pirates at Cardinals

8:10pm. Mark Redman and Mark Mulder. Mulder has been in a groove.

On parity

Yesterday's Stats Geek.

One factor in the distribution of championships, I think, is the expanded playoff format. Most anything can happen in a short series. Like Brian, I'm tired of hearing that money is the be-all and end-all in baseball.

Wednesday Q & A

Here it is.

Game 43: Pirates at Cardinals

8:10pm. Kip Wells and Jason Marquis. Marquis has been wild. In his last four starts, he has K'd 8 and walked 11 in 25 innings. He's also been extremely lucky, I suppose, enjoying a .187 BABIP. Remember, the league average for batting average on balls in play is about .300. Pitchers have only a little control over this. Generally speaking, pitchers that are tough to hit are tough to hit hard. Mark Prior and Pedro Martinez have enjoyed sub-.200 BABIPs this month. They walk few and strike out more than a quarter of the opposing batters. Maybe Prior and Martinez have earned that low number.

More to the point, a pitcher that can't throw strikes - like Jason Marquis, of late - can't claim to generate pop-ups or groundouts "on purpose." This guy has been lucky. If fortune favors the brave, Jason Marquis has been Hercules. FWIW, last year they hit .305 on balls in play off Jason Marquis.

Hopefully the Bucs sit back and make him throw strikes tonight. Why swing at the tough stuff when you can expect a hanging breaking ball?

If Wells and Marquis both labor, or if we get a stingy ump, this could be a loooooooooooooong game. It will be worth it if the Bucs can score early and often off Marquis.

Eric Byrnes and Ken Macha

So the A's are back to peddling Eric Byrnes. An interesting subplot now is the possibility that he's on the block because he and his manager, Ken Macha, don't get along.

And I could be wrong about this, but I believe the possibility of Macha coming to manage the Pirates in 2006 was one of the factors in McClendon not getting an extension before the start of the season. Macha is from this part of the country.

I see a lot of somewhat-political bullshit whenever a new owner, manager, or GM takes over a team that has not been successful. The new boss replaces good people with new people, or goes about making dramatic roster moves to "send a message." There's a lot of bullshit barking at the employees to form new lines and walk new ways. Unless the previous boss was corrupt or incompetent, things get worse before they get better. A team that wants to win consistently needs stability in the front office.

McClendon has come a long way. He knows the rest of the NL Central as well as anyone. I'd like to see him retained come October. I will not be impressed or optimistic if the Pirates let him go.

Back to Byrnes. I don't know what to think of the possibility of acquiring him. It depends, I suppose, on what he costs in talent and on who he replaces on the 25-man roster. I certainly wouldn't deal Mike Gonzalez or Zach Duke for him. Would he play center? I also wonder what we could expect from him from the start. Would he hit much in his first tour of National League pitching? (Do GMs have a good idea which hitters put up good numbers only because they know the opposing pitchers so well [Jason Kendall, e.g.], and which hitters put up good numbers regardless of who is pitching?) I'd worry that Byrnes would not adapt to the NL quickly. Can we bear to watch another new acquisition suck for two months?

Bucco pitching, May 3 to May 23

Looking at the numbers for the last three weeks, I see that the pitching has been good, but not as good as I thought it had been.

• Mark Redman has been a stud. He's thrown just under 30 innings and held hitters to a .200 /.241 /.286 line, a 527 OPS, which is sick. He faced Houston, San Francisco, Milwaukee, and Colorado. His control has been good, not great. He struck out an average number (15), walked a few (6), and probably was more lucky than not with balls in play.
• Kip Wells has been good. For a power pitcher, he still needs to change some of his walks into strikeouts before we'll see elite performance. 20 Ks in 27 IP is decent, but 12 BBs in the same period cancels out some of that strikeout goodness. Hitters only managed a utility-infielder-esque .237 / .325 / .333 off Kip. He faced Houston, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Chicago. Redman's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .235 looks lucky to me; Kip's BABIP in the same period, .289, looks more sustainable. The best part of Wells' recent success has been his ability to go deep into games. He's gone 6, 7, 6, and 8 innings without throwing more than 110 pitches. The combination of effectiveness and less-than-stellar power rates makes me wonder if Kip is becoming less of a thrower and more of a pitcher.
• Josh Fogg is a pitcher. He continues to houdini sublime effectiveness from mediocre to poor rate stats. In his last 26 innings, he has struck out 11 (not good) and walked 10 (not good). "Control" does not come to mind looking at those numbers. Nevertheless, he held the Diamondbacks, the Giants, the Cubs, and the Rockies to autility-infielder-esque 0.232 / 0.303 / 0.337. Fogg does more with less. His .255 BABIP probably speaks of more good than ill luck; with that number Fogg has averaged right around .300, with the rest of the league, the last two years.
• Dave Williams has imitated Mark Redman to good effect. He had similar K/BB numbers, a more average BABIP (.287), did about six innings per start, and held the Diamondbacks, Giants, Brewers, and Cardinals to a fourth-outfielder-esque 0.258 / 0.305 / 0.404 line. Three of those starts were on the road. His performance may be just as impressive as Redman's.
• Ollie started twice in those three weeks, at Arizona (disaster) and home against Colorado (better). He's back at square one, stuck in March 2004 form. He struck out a bunch (9 in 10 IP), walked way too many (6), and got pounded at a three-hitter-esque rate of .293 / .396 / .537.
• The bullpen has not seen much action with the starters going 6-7 innings per start. Vogelsong and Grabow have pitched less than five innings, Rick White six.
• Jose Mesa has been wild, hittable, and lucky. In eight high-leverage innings, he has struck out few (3), walked a ridiculous number (7), and been pounded with five extra-base hits. It all adds up to a .292 / .412 / .583 line. I would call that wild and hittable. The .240 BABIP suggests it could have been worse. His BABIPs for 2004 and 2003 were .320 and .340. With hidden vigorish, maybe he'll finish 2005 around .280. On the year, though, he's around .302.
• Mike Gonzalez has 9 Ks in his last 7 2/3 innings. You don't need luck if the opposing hitters can't put the ball in play, but he's had some, too, with his .217 BABIP. He's been wild, too, walking an Ollie-esque 4 batters in that period. That said, no one could hit this guy. Opponents went .115 / .233 / .154 off him.
• Salomon Torres has been wild - 1 K and 6 BBs in 7 IP. But he's been effective without too much in the way of visible luck. Like the three soft-tossing starters, he appears to be getting the most from what's he got.

On the whole the pitchers have been average or better. They are not hurting the team's chances at finishing at or just above .500. It would unrealistic to expect these guys to shut down the better-hitting teams and win 2-0 games. But I think they will continue to pull their weight. Paired with a sick-hitting offense, this staff could take a team to the playoffs. I also take comfort in the team's depth here. With Zach Duke and Ian Snell more or less ready, or at least qualified, to work as the fifth starter, the pitchers look set to do their part.

Zach Duke surgery

The doctor went to work in Durham. A little here, a little there, sew the patient up, all in a day's work.

When's the last time a 22-year-old was compared to Warren Spahn? And how is that changeup coming along? I think he'll need it in the show.

Thoughts on the loss

Damn, the Cardinals have some good players. You just cannot give RBI opportunities to Albert Pujols. You cannot give Larry Walker an inch on the bases. And Chris Carpenter was untouchable for most of the night.

That said, the Bucs don't look too shabby to me. This one wasn't a laugher. The Bucs need to make haste slowly, as the old saying goes, with the Cardinals. They are going to make mistakes and the Cardinals are going to make mistakes. It looked to me like the Pirates made a few extra mistakes after the first few. Maybe they were thinking they had to play mistake-free ball to beat the Cardinals. Going into the ninth, that two-run lead felt like twenty runs. It wasn't a laugher but it didn't look or feel close at the end. Still, the fact remains that it was close. It's good to see such focus on the need to play perfect ball, even when you see it, for example, in that terrified look Dave Williams flashed, at the end of his start, as he wheeled around on every batted ball to see where the hell it would land.

With a little luck - a baserunner or two in front of Jason Bay's home run, maybe - that kind of focus will be rewarded. For a moment I thought tonight's game had the feel of a playoff game. It didn't seem like they had a chance to win at the end, but they did, and it did seem like they belonged on the same field as the Cardinals. And that was not so much the case at the end of last year.

Anyway, it's been more than a couple weeks. The Pirates continue to look consistently better. There may be little chance of winning the NL Central but still they look consistently better, even losing. I hope they sleep well tonight.

Game 42: Pirates at Cardinals

8:10pm. Dave Williams and Chris Carpenter.

This is the first of a three-game series with the team that's running away with the NL Central. The Cardinals continue to be the team the Bucs must measure up against. Yes, I think this team is better than last year's team. But the team's improvement means little if it means nothing relative to the best teams in the division.

Minor-league update

Dejan Kovacevic has some news in today's notebook.

Game 41: Rockies at Pirates

1:35pm. More perfect weather forecast, for the afternoon at least. Joe Kennedy and Josh Fogg.

Game 40: Rockies at Pirates

7:05pm. Perfect weather forecast. Jason Jennings and Oliver Perez.

Game 39: Rookies at Pirates

7:05pm. Wright and Redman.

I was tuned into a Rockies game the other day. The announcer, a good homer, read an email from a fan asking if the Rockies would finish the year with more win than the Pirates. The Pirates were selected not at random, of course, but as though they stood for Losing. The question more or less said something like, "Do you think we might - shudder - be as bad as the Pirates?" I forget the exact wording.

The two announcers were quite hearty with their knowledge that yes, this Rockies team was much better than that Pirates team.

This weekend, we'll see if they are right.

Redman the Champion

Dejan Kovacevic has 2000 words on Mark Redman.

Jose Castillo breaking out

John Perrotto writes about Jose Castillo.

Bucco Ball Boy

Chuck Curti profiles the Pirates' ball boy.

Losing one-run games

The one-run, last-minute losses don't bother me like the hang-your-head, lose-by-ten losses. Jason Bay had the bases loaded and he struck out. Jack Wilson double play. So what? At least the team got to that point. If they keep loading the bases, all their problems will melt away, eventually. Even losing, the Bucs look competitive. Far better to lose by a hair than to lose by a lot.

Bring on Colorado ...

Game 38: Cubs at Pirates

Day game - first pitch 12:35pm. Glendon Rusch and Kip Wells. Right-handers have been torching Rusch this year. I'm sure Mac's aware of that.

Q & A time

Gather 'round.

I was at the game when D. Ward put the ball in the river. It sucked. The Astros pounded the Bucs early and late.

Game 37: Cubs at Pirates

7:05 pm. Game one of a two-game series. Mark Prior and Josh Fogg.

Coach Mesa

Mesa gets the AP treatment from Alan Robinson, Pittsburgh's AP writer extraordinaire.

Mesa is most fun to watch pitching from the stretch.

D-fence

Stats Geek waves the big D and the section of picket fence.

Always thinking

Paul Meyer on Dave Littlefield.

Air ball

Ed Eagle comments on Jack Wilson's 2005 swing. Does this sound fixable? I guess yes.

All hail Ian Snell

Mr. Stamina, says his coach in John Perrotto's report.

Perrotto on Kendall trade

He likes it.

Starting the service-time clock

Baseball Prospectus: Another consideration with a player like Marte is the question of starting his service-time clock. How much of a concern is that for you, given the budget constraints the Braves and every other team must face?

Schuerholz: It's never an issue for us. Maybe that's just because of my attitude--we always seem to have quality talent in the pipeline behind the guy whose time clock starts, behind the guy who's going to get more expensive than his quality of play demands. So we'll just put another player in that role. We have great confidence in our scouting and development program, that we have a very full pipeline of talented players. If they're good enough, there's really no problem--they'll earn their way into a starting spot.

I cringe when I hear or read talk that the Pirates should keep a player in the minors in part because that prevents the starting of his service-time clock. Such talk, for example, was bandied about as a reason to keep back Zach Duke coming out of March. The real reason not to promote Duke was Dave Williams, who has been great in the fifth-starter role. Even if not starting the clock is so important, which I don't believe, then I don't understand what Littlefield would have to gain by acknowledging that this is a factor. It's cheap and whiny and repels me. Maybe he didn't acknowledge it; I don't know; I don't care to research it. It was most certainly mentioned as a factor in the Duke decision by various journalists and folks in the know. And I don't recall Littlefield refuting the speculation the way I thought he should. If I was the GM and someone asked me that same question Jonah Keri asked the Atlanta GM about Andy Marte, I'd say, "Hell no" and a bunch more unprintable words.

What I also like here in Schuerholz's reply is the easy confidence. If you don't have it, learn to fake it. That's should be part of the job. And why can't any GM have this confidence? Under the current CBA, the team gets three years for the first million dollars. That's twenty-one dog years and even more baseball years. And in the next three years, the players make less in arbitration, in most cases, than they'd make as a free agent. I don't care how po' the Bucs are, I'll never think it's less than penny-wise, pound-foolish to countenance talk about the delaying of a promotion so a player will cost the team less in four or five years.

Schuerholz handles himself well in that interview, which I totally recommend, over at BP in their for-pay area. Since he's a GM, I know he's talking out the side of his mouth, but still it sounds good. If he runs for office when he gets bored with baseball, I think he'll do well.

Pirate hitting, April 25 to May 15

The Bucs have gone 11-7 since last April 25 (and 9-5 so far this month). The numbers for that period are below. Here are some observations and thoughts that struck me as I looked at them for thirty minutes:

• They hit 24 home runs in this three-week period. Those with more than one: Daryle Ward 6, Jason Bay 5, Lawton, Castillo, Jack Wilson, Wigginton, Cota, 2 each.
• Jason Bay has been on a tear. 12 of his last 23 hits were for extra bases. Here's a list of some NL players who had more than half their hits go for extra bases in 2004: Russ Branyan, Barry Bonds, Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, Vinny Castilla, Jim Thome, Luis Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Brad Wilkerson, Ken Griffey Jr.
• Craig Wilson was doubling like crazy when he went on the DL.
• With six strikeouts in 65 at-bats, Darlye Ward has been making a lot of contact. Last year he struck out 45 times in 293 at-bats, and finished the year at .249 / .305 / .474. If he maintains the 90% contact rate, he could hit .300 this year, because when Ward hits the ball, he hits it hard. 11 of his last 21 hits went for extra bases.
• Neither Bay nor Ward are hitting at a rate that I would regard as unsustainable. Both players saw 47% of their hits go for extra bases in 2004. For both players, then, the lofty extra-base hit percentage is just a bit above what they showed they can do last year. Watch Ward's strikeouts. They are the difference between a .249 / .305 / .474 line and a .323 / .343 / .677 line.
• With seven strikouts in 42 at-bats, Jose Castillo does not look like a .300 hitter. But who cares? He doesn't need to hit .300 to be a major asset. He has five extra base hits and looks to be on his way to that breakout year we all predicted. Last year he struck out 92 times in 383 at-bats. If he maintains that 1-in-6 strikout rate and continues to show this decent amount of power, he'll finish the year with something like 25 doubles, 16 home runs, and a line like .275 / .325 / .440.
• Rob Mackowiak has shown improvement with the eye with degeneration in the bicep. Another Pirate who has cut down on the strikeouts, he whiffed eight times in his last 47 at-bats. That's better than last year, when he struck out 114 times in 491 at-bats (17% vs. 23%). On the season, he's somewhere in between, so some modest improvement appears to be real. What's not been there the last three weeks, though, is the power. Last year, 37% of Mackowiak's hits went for extra bases. Over the last three weeks, his hits have rolled to the wall at about half that rate. Now at .309 / .374 /.392 for the year, he appears to be morphing into Jason Kendall. Has Mackowiak been tapping the easy singles into the holes the opposing infield has given him? Even if this is the case, I doubt he can sustain the .319 batting average with that many strikeouts. (Last year, Jason Kendall hit .319 / .399 / .390 with only 41 strikeouts in 574 at-bats.) If a player reduces his strikeouts from 23% to 17%, he's going to add about twenty points to his batting average. The K reduction plus the six walks in the last 47 at-bats, then, suggest the possibility of real OBP improvement. Last year Mackowiak finagled 50 walks in 491 at-bats. He paired that with a low BA and only finished with a .319 OBP. If he continues to improve his command of the strike zone - striking out a bit less, walking a bit more - he could finish the year with a league-average OBP of .340. Or even higher if he can houdini a .300 BA like Jack Wilson did last year. But where is the power? I'd rather see a .330 OBP with a .420 SLG than a .350 / .395. These aren't All-Star numbers but they are great for a player with Mackowiak's defensive ability and flexibility.
• Jack Wilson is now hitting the ball as hard as he did in 2004 (38% of his last thirteen hits have gone for extra bases vs. 32% for all of 2004). He's striking out at the 2004 pace, too, so all he needs now is a little luck. I expect he'll hit .275 the rest of the way.
• We knew Ty Wigginton could hit if he was not a starter, or only an emergency starter. This is what he did with the Mets. We also knew he was streaky. Well, the Bucs have demoted him into a part-time player and he has gotten hot. I've been impressed to see McClendon resisting the urge to start him after every multi-hit game. In his current role, he has value. Will he lose his value if his role is expanded? This is a bird-in-the-hand issue. I'm happy with what he's giving us now. There will be no Free Ty Wigginton t-shirt campaign coming to PNC Park. That may be unfair, but he had his chance in April and blew it. Let him fight for PT Craig Wilson-style. It appears to be good for him.
• Cota has been an all-or-nothing thug at the plate. Dave Ross has hit like we expected when Littlefield acquired him for a three-bedroom home in Ohioville.
• Freddy Sanchez, Bobby Hill, and Tike Redman have been non-factors. There must be some hidden vigorish in there somewhere.

.NAME .TM GM PA ...BA ..OBP ..SLG R+RBI
BayJa PIT 18 77 0.319 0.367 0.639 30
WardD PIT 16 67 0.323 0.343 0.677 25
WlsnC PIT 09 30 0.435 0.606 0.739 07
Lawtn PIT 18 78 0.260 0.313 0.411 20
Cstlo PIT 10 43 0.357 0.372 0.595 16
Mkwak PIT 17 53 0.319 0.396 0.383 11
WlsnJ PIT 17 65 0.217 0.277 0.383 12
Wggtn PIT 10 32 0.276 0.364 0.552 10
CotaH PIT 10 39 0.229 0.308 0.486 09
RossD PIT 09 26 0.208 0.241 0.333 05
Snchz PIT 12 31 0.200 0.226 0.267 04
Redmn PIT 15 34 0.156 0.200 0.250 06
Sadlr PIT 03 08 0.250 0.250 0.625 02
HillB PIT 11 25 0.130 0.192 0.130 05
Resto PIT 04 09 0.000 0.222 0.000 01
Amzga PIT 02 04 0.000 0.250 0.000 01

On Ollie

Here's John Perrotto's version of the story. Rob Biertempfel has a note, too.

Perez is so unusual a starter, there really is no sense is having him rehab at AAA. He's going to crush AAA hitters doing things that will go punished in the big leagues. It sounds like he's working with Spin to recapture the mechanics he used last year.

Assuming there's no injury to his arm or shoulder, he should be ready to go soon enough. The rest of the starters have stepped it up. So much for the CW that said the Bucs would need 30 quality starts from Kip and Ollie to compete. Right now they look competitive without him. Getting him back in 2004 form would provide a huge lift, of course.

All hail Ian Snell

Wow.

Game 36: Brewers at Pirates

Gary Glover and Dave Williams. Bucs still sneaking up on .500. Also looking for their fifth win at home.

...Bucs win, 4-2. All hail most everybody. The Bucs are playing as well as anyone in the NL Central right now. I'd love to see them keep it that way for, I don't know, a month or five.

Game 35: Brewers at Pirates

The Bucs might have an extra day to think about Friday's loss, if the rain comes and stays. It would be ironic to have Umbrella Day rained out.

Game 34: Brewers at Pirates

7:05pm. Chris Capuano and Kip Wells. Hopefully Kip avoids the fastball when pitching to Russell Branyan.

This is a big series with the Pirates looking up at the Brewers. We also have the two hottest teams in the NL Central. The weather for the weekend bears watching, too.

Expected to dangle Mesa

Today the Chicago Sun-Times, reviewing the sadness that is the Cubs' bullpen, informs us:

Getting a quality closer in a trade won't happen before late June. And by then, there will be long lines in front of the few teams willing to deal. The Pittsburgh Pirates are expected to dangle closer Jose Mesa, but they won't get serious until right before the July 31 trade deadline.

Why are the Bucs expected to dangle Mesa? My guess is this: every year, in recent memory, the Bucs have dangled someone and thus turned July into the end of the season. Pirate fans have been somewhat cool with that since the Steelers start play in August. We will cooperate, more or less, with end-it-in-July gambits.

But not this year, I hope. We're stuffed to the gills with prospects. If anything, I'd like to see the Bucs trade not for prospects but for one of the arb-eligible guys teams often want to deal to make room for some hotshot minor-leaguer.

We know the team is about $5M under budget for the 2005 payroll. The GM swore he wasn't going to use that money on anything but the 2005 team. Bucco bloggers and off-season internet-talking fans were generally pleased when he failed to "blow" that money on what we regarded as bottom-of-the-barrel free agents like Jeromy Burnitz, Juan Encarnacion, and Charles Johnson. The Bucs should target a guy like Lyle Overbay. Not Overbay - we don't want to help out an NL Central rival - but someone like that, who has proven he can play at a high level, who stands to be dumped by his team because he'll make fairly large raises in arbitration.

Who should we deal to acquire players at the deadline? Prospects. Pitching prospects. We don't need all those young guys. If we deal one or two to get a legitimate starter for the rest of '05 and '06 - someone with a much more impressive resume than Ty Wigginton had when we acquired him - we will still have a lot of pitching prospects. And since they are lousy percentage plays, it would help to diversify the teams' holdings. Young pitchers are high-risk, high-reward holdings; we need a low-risk, high-reward player. He will be relatively well paid, but we can afford it.

One other thing about dealing Mesa: has he not sworn up and down that he would retire if the Pirates trade him? I expect we will continue to see beat reporters for other clubs proceeding with the assumption that the Bucs will be eager to deal anyone who is good and making more than minimum. If Littlefield plays his cards right, he could pull off a national PR coup with a dramatic appearance on the trading market as a buyer. I root for such things because I think the Bucs will sell out more home games when they have another team that makes the playoffs two or three years in a row. As the Cubs will tell you, there are bargains to be had in late July, and the Bucs are poised to take advantage.

Gorzelanny

Throwing well, according to this big report from Paul Meyer.

Coach Perry

Dejan Kovacevic dissertates on Gerald Perry, the Bucs' hitting coach.

21 home runs in May

Bucs lead the league in homers this month (didn't stop the Sacramento Bee from calling them "the toothpick factory.") That and other causes for rational and/or irrational exuberance in Dejan Kovacevic's recap of last night's game.

FWIW, last year the Bucs also started 15-18. And were in last place for the effort. I said it before, I'll say it again. If the team is under .500, it doesn't matter what "place" they are in, unless it is first place. Under .500 sucks.

And I may be wrong about this, but it remains my conviction or superstition that it's harder to win games when you are above .500 than it is when you are below .500. The Bucs tore through three opponents on one of those west-coast road trips that, historically, have been tough on them. If you wake this morning in San Francisco and read the paper, you don't read about how great those Bucs are playing. You read about how your team is in a terrible funk and lost to the Pirates. At some point your reputation precedes you and teams get up for their series with you. The Brewers know better. Otherwise the Bucs remain well below the radar for the rest of the league. Until they pull up over the .500 mark, no one will and no one should pay them much respect.

Craig Stansberry

Paul Meyer writes up his promotion to Altoona.

Bucs add Restovich

Story here. (Thanks, Wilbur.)

Welcome to the land of opportunity, Michael.

Game 33: Pirates at Giants

Hooraw hooray, a game today. First pitch in thirty minutes. Josh Fogg and Noah Lowry. Sadler in left. Here's hoping he gets his first hit today.

The season is 20% over. The Bucs have rebounded somewhat from a miserable start. A few more wins and they'll be in position to make the next sixteen games of real significance. What looked like a somewhat-easy homestand, months ago, now looks tough. The Cardinals remain the cream of the NL Central but the Brewers will be a big challenge.

Anyway, the focus is now, as always. I'd like to see them knock around the Giants this afternoon.

On the Nuttings

John Perrotto summarizes the anti-Nuttings movement. I'm surprised to learn that Richard Mathews has come out against the Nuttings because I've long associated him with this editorial he wrote last year. If he's joined the movement, I wonder if the Nuttings have any supporters among the fan base.

I'm all for whatever works. I don't care who owns the team. I just want the team to win when I go to the ballpark, watch on TV, or listen on the radio. Hell, right now, I just want them to win half their games, which strikes me as an eminently reasonable desire.

But I can't get too wrapped up in chasing shadows. As I've written before, I think the onus of losing has to rest mainly on the players we've had. Talent is not some god-given magic power. The best players are the ones who work to be the best. And work harder to stay the best. Maybe the odds are longer for some of our guys than they are for others, but I doubt it. The players own the fate of the team. You guys can hate on G. Ogden Nutting, I'll hate on Derek Bell when the urge to hate grabs hold of me.

...oops, link changed. I can't find Mathews' pro-Ogden editorial.

Tony Pena resigns

Story here. I wonder if he has talked to Lloyd McClendon this season.

Perez hurt

Let's hope his labrum is OK. I don't know what else to say there.

Who's next for the fifth starter job? With Ollie out, a promotion must be in order.

Q & A time

Dejan Kovacevic has some good stuff today.

The 2006 lineup poll results surprise me. Folks put way too much stock in unproven players, I think. I'm not a fan of "proven veterans," but there's a big difference between a promising 25-year-old just off a promising 350-at-bat season in the big leagues and a promising 25-year-old just off a promising full-season at AA. Duffy, Eldred, McLouth, Koonce: I'll believe it when I see it. Let's not count chickens before they hatch.

Game 32: Bucs won

Missed it. What happened?

Perez feeling blue

Mac and Cota use the i-word. That and other news in Dejan Kovacevic's notebook.

Game 31: Pirates at Giants

Game starts 10:15pm. Mark Redman and Brett Tomko. Jose Mesa and Omar Vizquel.

Construction worker

Dejan Kovacevic notes the appearance of Sadler yesterday. Willie Randolph got some mindless love for instituting a dress code for the Mets when they travel. Has McClendon done the same thing? I'm just curious.

My fashion tip for McClendon: wear the glasses in the dugout. With those close-set eyes, he can look quite pop-eyed when he glares at the field. I'd do more to cultivate that cool Joe Liggins look. Umpires might show less of a hair trigger on the disrespectful comment retaliation.

Sixteen runs

This was a nice thing to do for the mothers everywhere.

The Bucs gallop up to 114 runs, stepping past the Cleveland Indians and the Oakland Athletics. And they are tied for third place for another day.

The third place does not impress me. When you're under .500, it doesn't matter where you are in the standings, you still have nothing to crow about.

What does impress, though, is seeing the Bucs round into form and looking kinda tough. If the season (162 games) can be compared to a ten-round boxing match, the Bucs (played 30 games) are still standing at the end of the second round. And they are getting in a few good licks as they ready the bell.

Only six teams in the National League are over .500 on the road this year. The Bucs are one of those teams. Off to San Francisco to finish round two with a quick three-game set.

Game 30: Pirates at Diamondbacks

The loss of Craig Wilson, just as he was beginning to hit, is not good. You hate to miss the good part of the streakiness. The Bucs call up Ray Sadler, a guy they got for Kenny Lofton Sausage Boy in the summer of the Aramis trade. He once had good PECOTA comps. Now they include George Foster, Joe Rudi, Larry Herndon, Felipe Alou, and Ruben Mateo. Sadler was hitting .291 with 31 doubles, 6 homers and 42 RBI at Class AA West Tennessee when we got him two years ago. Not sure what he's done since. Maybe he'll do something with this opportunity. Or maybe not. Whatever.

Any news on Santiago? Nothing on the wire. Adios Benito, we barely knew you.

Happy Mother's Day

Enjoy the day, ladies and gentlemen, and don't forget to call your mommies.

Game 29: Pirates at Diamondbacks

9:40pm again. That should give us plenty of time to get good and liquored, or to find something better to do with the evening. Seriously, my guess is the Bucs look competitive tonight. Arizona is due for a slide and the Pirates have been waking up with the bat. If Fogg has recovered from his crazy ear problem, he should be effective as usual, keeping the team in the game for six or seven. We can definitely score some runs on Russ Ortiz in Arizona.

Game 28: Pirates at D'backs

9:40pm, Oliver Perez and Javier Vazquez.

Pirate Johanssen

More pirate fun found at Boing Boing. That should give you something to do until game-on at 9:40pm.

Recent Pirates pitching

Here’s a snapshot of the Pirate pitching over the last three weeks.

name. G IP.. K. BB HR ..BA ..OBP ..SLG BABIP
Wells 4 24.3 20 12 1 0.234 0.362 0.327 0.309
Redmn 4 26.3 12 11 1 0.260 0.375 0.333 0.284
WmsDv 4 24.0 18 07 4 0.242 0.451 0.303 0.273
Perez 4 22.7 18 15 6 0.294 0.576 0.402 0.300
FoggJ 2 09.0 03 05 2 0.349 0.605 0.417 0.374
White 7 10.0 04 03 0 0.167 0.200 0.265 0.175
Gonzz 5 06.7 05 03 0 0.143 0.190 0.250 0.184
MesaJ 7 07.0 08 02 0 0.240 0.320 0.286 0.349
Grabw 6 06.3 05 03 0 0.227 0.273 0.320 0.287
Vogel 5 08.7 02 06 0 0.324 0.378 0.419 0.355
Meadw 6 06.0 04 04 0 0.393 0.500 0.469 0.468
Trres 7 08.0 01 02 3 0.300 0.767 0.364 0.222

Wells, Redman, and Dave Williams were solid, overall, in the last four starts. None of these guys pitched as well as any of the Cardinal starters, but they pitched better than all the Cubs starters.

Wells didn’t walk as many people as I remember him walking. He walked 11% of the hitters he faced, which was average. Redman may have been a little lucky in those four starts. Since he’s a soft-tosser, it’s no surprise to see his strikeout numbers so low. He walked at about the same rate as Kip.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This will vary much like batting average, but somewhat above it. Starters who throw 120 innings will finish the year with a BABIP between the .240s and the .340s. The latest thinking on the subject of BABIP is that pitchers exert some control over it, but it still appears to be 93% luck. (Go to Baseball Prospectus and search the archives for “BABIP.” Read what Nate Silver and Clay Davenport have written on the subject this spring.) Last year Redman posted a .308 BABIP. Right now he’s at .284. There may be some luck involved here, but I think he can sustain this level of excellence, low strikeout totals aside. His solid performance does not appear to be the result of some huge dose of luck. The same goes for Dave Williams. Williams gave up more home runs but he compensated for that with a pretty stingy walk rate. All three of these guys – Wells, Redman, and Williams – have been good and I don’t see any reason to think they won’t keep it up.

Oliver Perez was awful. Six homers and fifteen walks in 23 innings? That’s bad. Opposing hitters have posted a 978 OPS against him. I can’t stress enough how bad that is. He has faced 100 different hitters over the last three weeks. On average, they hit at rates that are comparable to Scott Rolen’s or Jim Thome’s 2004 numbers. One of his last four starts was a gem. In the other three he allowed twenty-one hits and thirteen walks in fifteen innings. Don’t tell me the bad start was the fault of G. Ogden Nutting when the team’s “ace” came back this “prepared” to lead to the team to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll return to his 2004 form. Or maybe not. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him scuffle like this through the All-Star Break. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him throw another gem tonight.

The bullpen was solid enough. White won’t maintain those rates all year, but Mike Gonzalez might. Even if he didn’t get much in the way of breaks, Brian Meadows was not good. Grabow looks much better this year. Hopefully Torres regains his form soon.

All in all, the situation looks good to me, with Ollie as the wildcard.

make with tha dancin, yar

Check out these clowns. There seems to be some kind of Piracy renaissance going on.

Game 27: Pirates at Diamondbacks

Old lefty (Shawn Estes) and young lefty (Dave Williams) tonight out west in Retirementland. 9:40pm start. As with last night, I'll be lushing it up and some distance from a computer. Use this thread to record your ramblings, should you have them.

Satisfaction

It was a good one. Kovacevic sums it up.

HOUSTON -- The Pirates first pulled off the unlikely.

They made Roger Clemens sweat.

Then, they pulled off the unthinkable and won on a night he was spotted a three-run lead.

To boot, they finished it off by smacking around Houston's sensational closer, Brad Lidge.

Daryle Ward and Jason Bay homered off Lidge in a three-run ninth to propel the Pirates to a 6-4 victory against the Astros at Minute Maid Park that unquestionably was their most satisfying of the season.

Full recap here.

Game 26: Pirates at Astros

The Bucs send Mark Redman to duel with another one of these AAA call-ups, some AAAA mule, I forget his name, Rocky Clementine? Something like that ...

On scapegoats

Like most of you, I scale back my attention to the Mighty Bucs when things hit the skids. It's just not that rewarding a hobby, duh, and there other things, like going to the zoo, that I can do with my time.

So I missed Dejan Kovacevic's M.A. Thesis on the financial health of the Bucs.

The way I see it, the payroll is more or less tied to tickets sales. The Bucs sell about 55% of their tickets. The quickest and easiest way to double the payroll would be to sell 95% or more of the tickets. The big-payroll teams sell 75% or more.

The PG estimates the team made about $13M last year. Their sources indicate that that Bucs are still more than $100M in debt for god knows what, Operation Shutdown I guess.

An additional $12M of payroll is not going to magically turn this team into a playoff contending dynasty, even if it's well spent. And what are the odds of spending it well? Drop $12M into players and what do you get - a Magglio Ordonez? a Chan Ho Park? or a Todd Helton? Can you get a Todd Helton for $12M?

Given that the Bucs have holes all over the diamond, I was on board with the plan to hold the money. We were all pretty terrified they'd blow the dough on Jeromy Burnitz or Juan Encarnacion, two guys Littlefield wanted, and now I think it's not unfair to say we were wrong about that. We could have used Burnitz's April or Encarnacion's April.

A lot of fans don't seem to get that the owners don't look to be profiting from the team. I hate penny-pinching illiberal callous-hearted bastard-bosses as much as the next person. In no way do I give a damn about Nutting's reputation. Let's all damn him to hell if he makes all his employees miserable and fills his newspapers with shit. Sign me up for that. But even if the evil Emperor Palpatine is stuffing that $12M in a mattress, and not applying it to the team's large debt, he's still making less than most of the superstar players. Last year, A-Rod made twice what the PG estimates the Nuttings could have plundered. The owner is not all-powerful here. There's no point hoping that these owners (or any other owners, for that matter) will swoop in and pour $100M of their own money into the payroll. That's not going to happen. That's not ever going to happen.

So how will the Pirates return to respectability? First, by catching some fucking breaks with the young players, that's how. They've already had a decent share of good luck with Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (2004 edition). They need to keep playing their cards the way they've been playing them and hope for more breakouts than busts. To state what should be obvious, the fate of the team is in the hands of the players we got, at PNC and in the minors. They own this team as much as the Nutting boys.

Second, to get a more competitive payroll, the Bucs are going to have to sell out most of their home games. Rising attendance will increase the value of the media contracts. Everything is tied to attendance, which is tied, duh, to winning.

We're not going to the ballpark to watch a team with a .400 winning percentage. Not when the zoo is less than half the price and every bit amusing for our small children.

You go to the ballpark, you drop a lot of cash. If the Pirates win, you love it and leave thinking, how soon can I come back here? Who can I bring with me? Fans want to share the winning experience. If the Pirates lose, you leave with some kind of nasty sick feeling. Some people blame themselves and say they are a jinx on the team. Others indulge all kinds of bitter vitriol. Others are disappointed to the point of depression.

One of these years the Bucs will have some kind of promising offseason. And they will start hot in Pittsburgh. If the Bucs were 16-9 instead of 9-16, much greater walk-up ticket sales would be there when they return to PNC.

It's like the old boating license story. You need experience on a boat to get the license, but you need a license to get experience on a boat. The Bucs need to win to sell out the stadium, and they need to sell out to win.

The only way out lies with the players we got. The addition of one $6M slugger and one $6M starter will not be enough. We need the guys we got to realize more of their potential.

The players own this team. If I'm the Nuttings, I offer an ownership share as part of the next long-term deal tendered to some worthy young man.

All hail the Wilsons

Five hits, two homers, and so what about the funny-looking plays in left. Finally some hidden vigorish for the Bucs tonight.

On the Nuttings

John Perrotto has something to say.

Game 24: Pirates at Astros

Sometime today, probably 8:05pm. C'mon, hidden vigorish.

New Stats Geek. Next week, I'd like a column on the odds of so many position players getting off to such poor starts. Unless they all just suck, the odds have to be really slim. It's like they've joined together in some kind of bizarre career-suicide pact.

Game 23: Pirates at Astros

8:05pm. Anyone paying attention?

Astros recent hitting

While I'm at it, here are the numbers for the Astros.

LaneJ HOU 18 79 0.274 0.329 0.521 21
Bagwl HOU 17 75 0.254 0.359 0.365 18
Evert HOU 15 61 0.281 0.333 0.474 18
Ensbg HOU 16 63 0.245 0.365 0.377 12
LambM HOU 17 45 0.256 0.356 0.538 13
Biggo HOU 18 70 0.224 0.288 0.373 12
Tavrs HOU 18 69 0.206 0.275 0.333 17
Ausms HOU 12 41 0.263 0.333 0.316 09
Chavz HOU 08 26 0.308 0.308 0.385 06
Vzcno HOU 10 17 0.267 0.353 0.400 04
Burke HOU 13 40 0.189 0.250 0.216 06
Plmro HOU 12 13 0.182 0.357 0.455 02
Scott HOU 12 30 0.120 0.267 0.120 02
Brnlt HOU 09 09 0.000 0.200 0.000 00

Biggio, Ausmus, Taveras, Burke, and Scott have been pretty cold. Lane has been great. The rest have been average.

Bucs hitting, April 11 to May 1

Those who were reading Honest Wagner last summer may recall that I'm in the habit of looking at three-week splits. That's a good-enough sample, I think, to guage what's going on. The following analysis, however, tells us only what has happened. It can be lousy as a predictor of what will happen. And in no way can a three-week snapshot give us an accurate view of a hitter's overall ability.

The players are sorted by a metric I call "expected run production." Basically, it's PA*(OBP*SLG). OPS gets a lot of press these days but (OBP*SLG) works better once you get used to the funky numbers it generates.

Daryle Ward has been our best hitter these last three weeks. Note "RP" means run production, i.e., runs plus RBI. Lawton's number is low because he leads off. Hitting behind the bottom half of the lineup, he hasn't had much in the way of RBI chances. Hitting in front of the top half of the lineup, he hasn't often toured the full circuit from first to home.

NAME. TM. G. PA .BA.. .OBP. .SLG. RP
WardD PIT 14 47 0.341 0.426 0.756 19
BayJa PIT 17 74 0.288 0.365 0.515 14
Lawtn PIT 17 73 0.270 0.382 0.397 10
Snchz PIT 15 39 0.306 0.359 0.528 06
Mackw PIT 16 55 0.280 0.345 0.360 10
RossD PIT 11 35 0.235 0.257 0.588 09
HillB PIT 13 33 0.290 0.324 0.387 10
WlsnC PIT 15 56 0.174 0.333 0.196 05
CotaH PIT 06 22 0.200 0.273 0.500 03
WlsnJ PIT 16 65 0.156 0.169 0.188 03
Wiggn PIT 13 35 0.147 0.171 0.235 05
Redmn PIT 11 29 0.111 0.167 0.185 03
Duffy PIT 04 03 0.333 0.333 0.667 01
Sntgo PIT 01 04 0.000 0.000 0.000 00
Amzga PIT 02 01 0.000 0.000 0.000 00

The Bucs have had four hitters carrying their own weight: D. Ward (I'll spare the weight joke here), Jason Bay, Matt Lawton, and Freddy Sanchez. I'd say that two of those guys have proven they are for real - they consistently do their share of the hitting. Freddy Sanchez has been a pleasant surprise. I'm not sure, however, that I've seen enough from Freddy to believe his overall hitting ability - the level at which he would consistently perform if a starter - is much different from that of Bobby Hill.

Dave Ross is still up there on the strength of those bombs. The .235 BA is about what we should expect from him. He probably won't repeat the .588 slugging outburst.

Most of the rest of the team is below the suckass line for (OBP*SLG). Hill has not been so good and everyone below him on that list, with the exception of Cota and Duffy, who did not see much playing time, has been downright wretched.

Stale

John Perrotto. Go Jack Jeter.

19 of 21

Ed Eagle reminds us the Pirates have lost 19 of their last 21 at Houston, where they begin another series tomorrow.

Game 23: Giants at Pirates

1:35pm, some minor-league call-up and Ollie. Might rain, but they should get the game in. I'm taking Rowdy Jr. and Rowdietta to the zoo.

Craig f'n Wilson

So wtf is wrong with this guy? Look at the 2004 splits. See September? 13-for-76, 26 Ks (34%), 8 BBs, a .171 / .284 / .342 line? See post-ASB, 57-for-243, 80 Ks (33%), 20 BBs, a .235 / .322 / .453 line? Even Dave Kingman limited the Ks to 27%. Wilson struck out 28% of the time in the (very good) first half of 2004.

As we close the book on April, we can state plainly that Wilson more or less repeated those September numbers. 15-for-64, 21 Ks (33%), 13 BBs, a .234 / .388 / .250. That's a lot of walks - .388 is one hell of an OBP on a hollow .234 performance - but we're not asking him to lead off.

Strikeouts are not necessarily a terrible thing. Adam Dunn struck out 33% of the time last year and he's up to the same tricks this year. But he's batting .292. The difference there might be luck. But three-quarters of Dunn's hits this year have been for extra bases. Only one of Wilson's fifteen hits have been for extra bases. The difference there is not luck.

What gives? Any theories? Why more Ks and no power? One extra-base hit in 64 at-bats is Sean Burroughsesque.

And may we not hear "he's pressing." That's got to be the laziest thing in the world to "report." If a ballplayer isn't pressing every day out, especially if he's starting for a team that has endured twelve consecutive losing seasons, then he's not worth more than a shit or two. No more Kordell Stewart bullshit about how it's all about having fun. That's mollycoddle bullshit. If a player doesn't enjoy "pressing," or doesn't perform at a high level when he "presses," then he doesn't belong in the big leagues.

I can understand why a player would tell the media that he's pressing. If he's having some very difficult time doing some particular aspect of his job at the plate, perhaps (a) he doesn't want to talk about it and (b) he thinks it wouldn't help to tell the media and help spread the word. As if ballclubs get their scouting information from the opposing team's newspapers. So what's the real story here? My hunch is that we will have to figure this out for ourselves. Where has all the power gone?

Game 22: Giants at Pirates

First pitch 7:05pm. Noah Lowry and Dave Williams. Bucs still looking for win number nine. They are five games under .500.

Game 21: Giants at Pirates

Brett Tomko and Mark Redman tonight. First pitch 7:05pm. None of the Bucs have much of a meaningful record against Tomko, so I will look for a more left-handed lineup full of the usual suspects.

Bucs go for win number nine.

Schmidt questionable

No Bonds this weekend and maybe no Schmidt too. That's OK with me. The Giant bullpen will also be something of a mystery. Matt Herges and Jeff Fassero might appear as the late-inning guys.

Vizquel to armor up

Joe Rutter has more on the Mesa-Vizquel feud.

The relationship began to sour in 1998 when Vizquel homered off Mesa during an intrasquad spring training game and did a cartwheel as he crossed home plate. An angered Mesa vowed to hit Vizquel the next time he faced him.

Both these guys are characters.

Sanchez and Hill

John Perrotto writes about them.

Coach Mesa

Dejan Kovacevic has a long biography.

Day off

Back tomorrow. P.S. Get well Josh Fogg.

Rose-colored contacts

Cool. Get us 26 pairs.

All hail Coach Mesa

300 saves for the big guy. So is he a first-ballot Hall of Famer, or does he have to wait for the Oldtimers' Committee?

Nice win today. There was a lot to like - Kip Wells having nine-pitch innings. And a lot to not like - the Bucs only score two runs from I-don't-want-to-count-how-many baserunners.

The Astros did not play so well in either one of the games here in PNC Park. Their outfielders looked out of position and awkward on lots of plays. Even Brad Lidge was ineffective. The hitters did their part to make Kip (and Ollie) look good.

But I wouldn't take anything away from these last two wins. The cheaper wins count as much as the pistol-whippings. God knows we've given away more of these than we've collected in the last two four eight twelve years. The Bucs had good opportunities to win and win they did.

Day off for the players tomorrow so you know they are goofing off tonight. Maybe they all go over to "00" Rick White's house to play roulette "just for entertainment purposes."

Right this minute, they are four games under .500 and six games out of first. That's better than they stood lay three days ago, but hardly standing tall.

Game 20: Astros at Pirates

Getaway day for the Stros - game starts at 12:35pm and they will head back to Houston to host the Cubs. The Bucs will get a night off, hopefully not spend it Ryan Freel-style, and host the Bonds-less Giants this weekend. DK is already on the Mesa-Vizquel angle. Bones and I have been looking forward to seeing them face off for quite some time.

Andy Pettitte and Kip Wells. Man I love the day games. Cloudy and maybe windy.

Dejan Q & A

Dejan Kovacevic answers questions for the PG.

In case you didn't notice, I haven't been reading much about the Bucs the last two weeks. What could I possibly learn that I don't know? It's enough to watch for transactions and tune into the game. Not to knock Kovacevic or any of the other fine writers, but an hour or three a day with the team on the TV or the radio has more than satisfied my Bucco curiosities.

I also said that I'd wait until they'd played nineteen to twenty-one games before I indulged in any analysis of the early-season free-fall. Three solid weeks strikes me as a significant sample of baseball. In April, with the extra off-days, it takes more like four weeks to complete than many games. I have observations to make and things to say but patience requires patience. It can wait another half-week or so.

I enjoyed Kovacevic's Q & A this morning - good to see he's maintaining his sense of humor.

Game 20: Astros at Pirates

7:05pm, Andy Pettitte and Kip Wells. The Bucs are looking for win number eight.

All hail Ollie

Win number seven. Ollie threw 80 strikes.

And all hail Coach Mesa, his easy slow delivery, his 95-mph heat. That was save number seven on the season and 299 in the career.

And all hail the 8,413 souls who went to the game, every one of them on their feet at the end.

Game 19: Astros at Pirates

Roy Oswalt and Oliver Perez tonight at 7. The Bucs are six games under .500 as they begin the final week of April.

Game 18: Pirates at Cubs

2:20pm, Josh Fogg and Kerry Wood. Dave Williams might start for Josh if Josh still has ear problem. The Bucs are looking to win number seven.

... game on. That pregame thing on Kurt Smith's Voices of Summer (where is Lanny ranked?) reminded me of the article in the latest Sports Illustrated on XM satellite radio by Steve Rushin. My question: how much did he get paid for that gushing review? Seriously, I was certain, reading his glowing praise for the product, that he got at least a free year's worth of service in exchange for the column. And I'm most sympathetic to his whole love-of-baseball-radio sentiment.

Rushin can thank the likes of these people and these people if this upsets him. You'd think SI would require him to run some kind of disclaimer or disclosure when he devotes his entire column to such puffery.

Bill James and the numbers

Just back from the coffee shop where I sat and read this in the print edition. It cheered me up a bit, which I needed.

Clutch hitting is a murkier area, for me, than the "hot hand," which most obviously exists. James's mature disillusionment with the truth-divining potential of baseball statistics strikes me as inevitable and a good thing. There's long been an irony, by turns delicious or irritating, when self-important "well-informed" baseball fans deploy a superstitious confidence in the interpretation of numbers to belittle the more self-consciously (and honestly) superstitious managers, players, beat writers, radio personalities, etc. A lot of good has come out of the study of advanced metrics, for certain, but to some extent their most alluring uses - e.g., projection - are little more than a modern-day alchemy. Too much faith in one projection system or one overall value measure is no better than too much faith in the good that comes from not stepping on the white line when you take to the field.