Mark Redman starts today against his old team.
Rest up this weekend. Games start next week.
Friday, April 01, 2005
Thursday, March 31, 2005
Picking winners
Hobby horse time. I'll put two Rowdy principles to test here.
Principle one: Sports are, fundamentally, levelling, democratic, egalitarian, all that good flag-waving All-American stuff. As Americans, we love sports. We even feel a certain national pride in the sporting soap operas we revere for diversion.
I maintain there's more parity in the Major Leagues than most baseball pundits want to believe. I suspect this has something to do with the way the whole country has been trending Aristocratical. When people write about money and baseball, I often think they are writing about This, Our Glorious New Gilded Age. When they bitch, I wonder if they are left out. When they gloat, I wonder if they like the view from their perch.
Levelling often characterizes the Story of Baseball. (Some people call this Regression to the Mean, but whatever.)
The great, they will be brought low. The meek, they will inherit first place.
I say all the teams are more or less looking at 78-84 wins on Opening Day. Some teams will deal talent for promises in July and August. Some teams will acquire talent. So there is a tendency for the good to get better and the bad to get worse.
As always, losing begets losing. Winning begets winning.
In the end, the teams will fan out and finish clustered in the 71 to 91 win range, with a team or two around 61 and a team or two around 101. If you think poor teams don't finish last, go look up the 2004 New York Mets, who won fewer games than our scrappy Pirates.
Principal two: gamblers mainly bet on winners, on "sure things." For this reason, longshots and perennial losers represent your best gambling bargains. Remember Smarty Jones.
Now open this link: 2005 MLB OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS.
I'll bet a virtual Ben Franklin against the following teams making their over/unders: New York-A (101.5), Boston (97), St. Louis (92), Angels (91.5), Cubs (88 current). These teams are overhyped by the gloaters. The lowly and the cowardly fear them overmuch. The company men toe their line.
I'll bet more virtual Franklins on these teams beating their over/unders: KC (64), Colorado (67.5), Brew Crew (68.5), Nationals (69.5), Toronto (70), Arizona (70.5) our Pirates (73), Seattle (76). I'd love to bet on the Reds, but their pitching sucks and, with the new ownership, they'll probably tear down and trade a bunch of Wily Mos. New ownership is not always a good thing, people. The Devil Rays have too much losing inertia as a franchise for my support. Perhaps if I paid more attention to them I could believe.
If I'm counting straight, that's thirteen virtual gambles. Wish me luck. And play along, if you care, in the comments.
Mike Prisuta is a communist
I'll take the over for sure. We talked about this last fall, during the football season. Spreads, lines, over/unders, are not scientifically designed as accurate projections. They are designed to provoke gambling. That's it. No one wants to gamble on the Pirates, so their over is low low low.
Prisuta, card-carrying Communist that he is, needs more gambling experience. Then he can speak to the Workers of the World about the meaning of the Magic Numbers the Capitalist Bully-Boys chalk on the wall in Las Vegas.
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
Roster set
Assuming catcher Humberto Cota has recovered from a left hip bruise that has kept him out of the lineup since last Saturday, the Bucs will open the season with Cota and Benito Santiago behind the plate; Sanchez, Hill, Daryle Ward, Jose Castillo, Jack Wilson, Craig Wilson and Ty Wigginton in the infield; Tike Redman, Jason Bay, Matt Lawton and Rob Mackowiak in the outfield; Oliver Perez, Kip Wells, Mark Redman, Josh Fogg and Dave Williams in the starting rotation and White, Jose Mesa, Salomon Torres, Mike Gonzalez, Brian Meadows, John Grabow and Ryan Vogelsong in the bullpen.
Them's the words of Ed Eagle at MLB.com.
That's about what I expected going into March. So far so good or, about what we could expect.
Other thoughts: sign the Cuban guy, sure, I say.
Gorzelanny, goddamn.
Dave Williams vs. Zach Duke: I didn't see either one of those guys pitch with my own eyes. And if I did, I'd probably be all like Wow. So I only know what I read. Based on what I read, Duke sounds ready.
Spring stats don't project much. Williams was lousy in the box score. If Mac says he was pitching well, that's fine for me. Williams gets five starts before I'll start getting apoplectic about giving Duke a chance.
It's funny to think that if I was the GM, I would have traded Duke in February and promoted him in March. When you have something good, it can burn a hole in your pocket.
Remember too, that Duke is no sure thing. Lots of guys with good control dominate the minors and fail to make it in the bigs. Nelson Figueroa comes to mind. So too, I think, Joe Roa. I want to believe in Duke but he'll have to prove himself again and again and again before we can call him Zach Maddux. And, as I think it was Gene Collier who wrote it, it is only the fifth starter's job. So whatever.
Time to play ball. No stumbling out of the gate this year.
Pirates buy catcher David Ross
The book on David Ross: Good power, good patience, little ability to hit for contact, once considered a sleeper, now 28 years old, okay defensively. More depth?
It doesn't look like he fits on the 25-man roster, which the Bucs finalized today, reports Alan Robinson.
Dead arms
Mac on Mike Gonzalez:
"He's fine," McClendon said. "He has a dead arm like all the rest of the pitchers. It's just a little stiffness. He'll be back out there soon."
Hmmm. Do all the rest of the pitchers have dead arms or is Mac speaking figuratively? Get well Gonzo, we're gonna need you.
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Note from the Commish
Clay to the Honest Wagner Yahoo! league, which is NL-only, about 16 players, and using something like a 10x11 roto scoring format: "Everyone in the Yahoo league set their draft status to ready by Wednesday at 11pm. I will set the draft to happen on Thursday so that there is time over the weekend for trades and waiver wire action."
I'm walkin'
Is Tike Redman developing the patience of a leadoff hitter? Maybe. Is he there yet? Not really. Last spring it was five walks in 70-odd at-bats. This spring it's five in 60. That's better but short of the one-for-every-ten lazy man's measure.
Who is singing the Fats Domino tune? Chris Duffy (7 in 48 AB), Mackawack (6 in 61), Craiggers (9 in 58).
How many HBP for Craig this spring?
The ghost of Kendall
He rattles his chains and moans in Joe Rutter's report on Humberto Cota.
He's a friendly ghost. Like Casper.
Training room of no return
"Once you get in the trainer's room, you have to beg to get out," Daryle Ward said.That from Joe Rutter's notebook.
Better the training room than the dining room.
Tike
Dejan Kovacevic reports on Tike's strong spring. Now his challenge is April in Pittsburgh:
"Playing in Pittsburgh in April, it freezes me up. I can't swing the bat, can't get the right breaks. Maybe it's mental. I watch Craig Wilson, and he's out there with short sleeves in April. I don't know how he does it. He tells me just to think it's warm outside. Maybe that's what I'll try. If I'm going to perform, I'll have to perform in cold weather."
Relax bro. It's just the weather, and everyone has to deal with it.
Beaver County birds
I enjoyed this article by Henry David Thoreau Mike Barcaskey. The sportin' papers usually focus on other things.
Perrotto rumblings
John Perrotto has been determined to bring the rumors all spring. Now Atlanta wants John Grabow?
Fewer Stiffs
Knock on wood, Stats Geek. But for the grace of God ...
Seriously, he's right. It may not be the Pirate fan way to talk of a .500 season, but I'm not down with the Pirate way if that's the case. I'd give the current team a 50-50 chance of finishing at or above .500.
Monday, March 28, 2005
The Bench
Dejan Kovacevic breaks down the bench. The news on D. Ward is great. I want to see him produce.
Something of a phenomenom
John Perrotto on Ryan Doumit, who "moves around too much and does not present a good target to his pitchers." Settle down back there, Ryan.
Sunday, March 27, 2005
Saturday, March 26, 2005
D'Rays want Mackowiak
Dejan Kovacevic fleshes out that rumor. It's true. They want the Bucs to take a reliever for him. I'd call that crazy talk.
Friday, March 25, 2005
Littlefield Q & A
Ed Eagle interviews the GM. Nothing controversial or surprising in there.
If you've been living in a cave, well, ... I hope it's a dry one.
Castillo to right
Dejan Kovacevic anticipates a big year from Jose Castillo.
Management appears to want to keep Castillo from getting too comfortable.He was assigned to Caracas of the Venezuelan winter league with specific instruction to hit more to right field, the opposite way for him and the way the Pirates believe would be best to fulfill his power potential. Again, he exceeded expectations by hitting .364 with 10 home runs in 54 games. His average ranked second in the league, as did his .598 slugging percentage.
On top of that, he fulfilled the Pirates' order to hit to right.
"It felt like everything I was hitting in winter ball was going to right field, even the home runs," Castillo said. "It felt easy."
Had they kept Castillo in the minors last year, he'd be a much-ballyhooed Top Prospect this year. That's my guess.
Steelers on juice
More evidence Jim Haslett in one of the worst coaches ever.
This steroids thing is driving me nuts. I try to ignore it, but it won't go away. For example, the latest issue of Sports Illustrated is wall-to-wall self-righteous indignation.
Anyone with a smattering of knowledge about the history of drugs knows that their effects are as Constructed as they are Real. And anyone who is seriously concerned about drug use and abuse knows this, too: our contemporary, irrational excitement about the Power of Drugs significantly promotes experimentation with them. Especially among the youth.
Here is what happened. A couple of politicians, in their bid to distract the country from the horrors of war, hold their breath until they turn red in the face. Then they point at San Francisco, a much-loathed city throughout much of the country, and say, "Look! A Black man on Drugs! Ruining Baseball!" The mainstream television networks, also eager to avoid addressing the horrors of war, cover the event like a Tsunami has claimed California. And chuckleheads like Rick Reilly seize the opportunity to present themselves as champions of Old-Fashioned Respect for Honesty and the Truth.
This is not about Cheating. If it was, Gaylord Perry would have been dragged from Cooperstown years ago.
This is not about Drugs. If it was, amphetamine use and alcohol abuse would be subjects that guys like Rick Reilly also take seriously.
You can draw your own conclusions. But those are mine.
Baseball and golf
Jim Brockman of the Bradenton Herald considers whether or not golf is good for your baseball.
What I want to know is, do any of the Bucs play disc golf?
Thursday, March 24, 2005
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Coaches meeting
According to Ed Eagle in this report, the coaches are meeting right now to make decisions they won't announce (or finalize, I guess) until early next week.
Joe Rutter also reports on what might be happening as we speak read.
Albie leaves
Loser. See you later, big guy. I'd be all about going to the minors if I had a good chance to pitch for Pittsburgh later in the season. I shit you not.
His curveball is a real hammer pitch
John Perrotto writes about the boy wonder.
The scouts who watched that game [against the Phillies last Friday] walked away raving about Duke."There is no doubt in my mind that kid can pitch in the major leagues now," said a scout from a National League organization. "He has the stuff to get big-league guys out and his curveball is a real hammer pitch. He has the poise. He has the mound presence. I really don't know what more he could learn in the minor leagues."
Duke's fastball reaches 92 mph but the curve and changeup are his best pitches. And it is that poise and mound presence that has impressed his teammates this spring.
Make no promises now and give him the job a few weeks later. Dave Williams, AAA. Ryan Vogelsong, grab a mop. Odds are that both those guys will get their turn.
Let's win some games. Let's sell some tickets. Put the guy with the real hammer pitch on the mound.
Sub-par power and poor on-base skills
We're asking about Juan Encarnacion? Why? In 3339 career ABs, Juan E. went .265/.311/.439, while drawing 199 BBs and striking out 620 times! For a corner OF, that's putrid. He's been even worse in PNC, puking up 51 ABs of .196/.226/.353. As if those stats weren't damning enough, listen to what the experts have to say:
2005 BP: "The Marlins made a good decision to let him go in the fall of '03, waching as Dan Evans signed him to a silly two-year deal. ... Encarnacion looks good in a uniform, plays right field well, and occasionally hits a mistake a long way. He's also one of the worst regular right fielders in baseball."
2004 BP: "Already a problem at a corner outfield spot with sub-par power and poor on-base skills, a nagging shoulder injury he kept under wraps further hurt Encarnacions's production ... If that's what passes for a a Dodger offensive upgrade- at two years, $8 million, no less - expect more punchless flailing at Chavez Ravine."
2000: "Prior to last year, 17 players in major-league history had turned the ugly trick of having no more than 20 walks and at least 100 strikeouts. Five of them were 24 or younger: John Bateman (1963), David Green (1984), Cory Snyder (1986), Benito Santiago (1987) and Craig Paquette (1993)...Encarnacion was also a disappointment defensively, and his once-limitless ceiling now appears as low as Pat Buchanan's presidential hopes."
I agree with these guys. Juan stinks. Like Derek Bell. What is DL thinking? Please don't do it, DL.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Will Carroll Health Report
Will Carroll, who is not a doctor but sometimes sounds like one, reviews the state of the Pirates' health for Baseball Prospectus. It's premium so you won't see it if you don't subscribe. No real surprises there, but I'd forgotten how much Dave Williams (the only red light) has struggled with injury.
In other Prospectus news, I see they repaired their team depth chart today. Bobby Hill is no longer presented as in line to receive most of the playing time at second base. They still have Rob Mackowiak only managing 165 plate appearances, however, which is just wrong. They have Mesa with a 5+ ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and 36 saves. I doubt that's possible but respect their attempt to hedge. He had like a 3.25 ERA last year and sports a career WHIP in the 1.4s. Mesa with nearly a 1.6 WHIP is not going to save 36 games, no matter how many opps he's given.
Dejan returns
Two good pieces from Kovacevic today. In the jobs open essay, he runs down the jobs that are, uh, open. Pretty self-explanatory I think. Note this:
First baseman Graham Koonce, the top power-hitter in Class AAA two years ago while in the Oakland system, is hitting .385 with two home runs in 13 at-bats. His best chance of making the Pirates is for management to buck recent tradition and go with an 11-man pitching staff to keep 14 position players. That has not been ruled out and might even be the preferred path.I'm all in favor of going with an eleven-man staff. We have some rubber-armed relievers and no one that needs babying -- except maybe the old man Mesa. I don't like seeing him on back-to-back days. With all the off days in April, I'd rather carry an extra bat and Mac can go crazy shuffle boogie on the Brewers and Cubs. If he substitutes enough, we can destroy their pitching staffs.
The other fine offering from Dejan Kovacevic was his notebook. He tells us how the pitch Ryan greased down the middle for a Gabe Gross home run, was a split-finger fastball, the same one he's working to develop this spring and, if I remember right, was throwing also in winter ball.
What I want to know is, does Ryan have a rubber arm? Can he be an eleventh-pitcher innings-eater? If so, that would be pretty valuable.
No Andy Capp
Brian O'Neill: mid-season form.
He's right. That's all good.
I thought last year was a pretty good year. I pretty much blanked out on the end of the season - the Steelers can do that to you - but I thought it was pretty good overall. Lots of highs and lows, plenty of drama, though maybe too much farce. 2005 will be better.
'79 Series Trophy for sale
No shit. What would you, as a fan, rather have -- the Bucs spend $1 mil to get Juan Encarnacion to play here for one year, or the Bucs spend $1 mil (or less) to purchase the stinking trophy?
I vote trophy.
Duffy still here
John Perrotto writes up the strong spring of Chris Duffy.
While Duffy has hit .298 and stolen 117 bases in four pro seasons, he has really made his mark in the field. Baseball America picked him as the best defensive outfielder in the Eastern League last summer."We haven't had many players like him (in the organization) the last few years," Pirates scouting director Ed Creech said. "He can really go get the ball in center field. He's an outstanding defensive player, the type of guy who could win a Gold Glove at the big-league level some day.
"He also has a chance to be a good top-of-the-order hitter with his speed, especially if he continues to improve as a hitter."
Plate discipline remains his glaring flaw. This is a familiar story.
On a related subject, I wonder how Matt Lawton's arm has looked out there. Is he giving up a ton of doubles and triples, as the Indians predicted after he was dealt? My guess is that offense is probably twice as important as defense. If Duffy's fielding is worlds better than any other centerfield candidates, he still has to hit nearly as well as the other candidates.
Last year the Bucs promoted Jose Castillo a bit ahead of schedule and stuck it out with him. Before that, they did the same with Jack Wilson. If you don't expect to contend this year, maybe you consider investing a year in Chris Duffy. Let him hit eighth and expect about nothing from his bat for the first half of the season? It could be an investment that pays dividends in 2006.
Then what do we do with Tike? Trade him to the Astros?
Duffy is to Redman as Duke is to Vogelsong. A cost of promoting a young guy is giving up on one of your old guys. Vogelsong can go to the pen and pitch long relief, so perhaps the analogy is not perfect. If Duffy joins Lawton, Bay, Wilson, and Mackowiak, Redman would be something like a fifth outfielder, unless Ward fails to make the team, we're planning on starting Mackowiak often in the infield, or someone looks to start the year on the disasbled list.
Monday, March 21, 2005
Battling his mechanical thing
Ed Eagle reports on today's game. Vogelsong pitched well again.
Vogelsong, who is one of three pitchers vying for the final opening in the Pittsburgh starting rotation, credits his improved command to an adjustment to his windup that keeps his left shoulder more in line with the catcher during the delivery."I'm still battling with my mechanical thing," said Vogelsong. "When I stay with the change, I throw the ball where I want to."
Go Ryan. Time is not up for him.
Tigers tomorrow.
Conine watch
I don't know what the Bucs might see in Juan Encarnacion. Maybe the D'Rays will offer B.J. Upton for Rob Mackowiak and Littlefield feels desperate for corner outfield depth. With Duffy looking good, and Redman looking better, why do we need an Encarnacion? I thought we had learned our lesson about proven veterans of this low (but average, and therefore, not bad) quality. Does Ward look that bad at first? Will there be no time for Craig Wilson in the outfield?
A Mack-a-whack trade would shock me since he's the definition of flexibility. And that's the cornerstone of the current approach.
Anyway, for what it is worth, two reports out of Florida suggest that Marlins fans should keep an eye on Jeff Conine's shoulder. If he's good to go, it appears, then the Marlins return Littlefield's call about Encarnacion.
Principal Torres
John Perrotto on Salomon Torres's Dominican academy. We've seen that news before, I forget where. I'm too lazy to search the archives right now.
Still, I'd much rather read about this than learn what Jason Kendall thinks of the Pirates' chances in 2005. I mean, whatever.
I'm not mainly a fan of the players. I'm mainly a fan of the team. And it's easy to be that way when you have zero interaction with the players. Judging from all the Kendall stories I've seen in the papers over the last few weeks, I'd guess that the beat writers miss Kendall. I don't, and I'm willing to bet that most Pirate fans don't miss him, either. It's not like he slid into home to score the winning run in some NLCS or hit four home runs in a World Series for us.
Don't get me wrong--the players are great. We're lucky to have the ones that we do. I'm sure I'd be all about drinking beer with any one of them should we meet in some bar. But baseball is a team sport. I don't wish Jason Kendall anything but the best. Same goes for J.J. Davis, Jose Guillen, Bronson Arroyo, and so forth. All the players are great. But it's the progress of the team that holds my attention.
Burnett and Van Benschoten
John Perrotto on these guys.
"Obviously, it's not the best thing in the world to lose a year," Van Benschoten said. "You've got other talented pitchers coming up through the farm system. The competition is only going to get stronger for major-league jobs in this organization. Hopefully, I won't get passed by."No worries, JVB. Be the best pitcher you can be and there will be no getting passed by.
Snell responds
John Perrotto's story on the cuts contains a number of interesting bits.
Even if you doubt Snell can make it as a starter, keep him in the rotation. Our disrespect for the short guy is gathering notoriety. This makes him more attractive in trade, since it provides a rationale for opposing teams to see him as underrated and neglected by our coaches. Let them print "Save Ian Snell!" t-shirts.
Plus. knock on wood, but for grace of God we need him to make starts for us.
100 on opening day
Thank you John Perrotto, for reading my mind and answering that question I had about how the Bucs are getting the starters ready.
Perez threw 60 pitches Sunday and the Pirates hope to stretch him out to 75 on Friday when they play Tampa Bay in St. Petersburg. Perez would then have a pitch count of 90 in his final spring start, March 30 against Minnesota in Bradenton, putting him on pace to raise the limit to 100 on opening day.
This from his version of the Ollie-will-start-on-Opening-Day story.
More Duke
In Joe Rutter's report for the Tribune-Review, he explains the pros and cons of breaking camp with Zach Duke.
Duke has been the most impressive pitcher in camp recently, giving up one run in his past eight innings. Weighing against him is his status as a non-roster player. Duke doesn't have to be added to the 40-man roster until November, so the Pirates won't have to waste his first of three options by sending him to Class AAA Indianapolis.If Duke makes the team and it is later decided he needs to return to the minors, he would exhaust that first option.
In addition, the clock would begin on Duke's major-league service time, which would be a factor in a few years when he is eligible for arbitration.
Williams has one minor-league option remaining, and Vogelsong none.
I forgot about that not being on the 40-man roster. Either way, if he sticks, we want him to stick.
As for keeping him down so we can save money three years from now, I can't believe that should amount to much of a consideration. There will be a new CBA three years from now, for one. For two, it's silly to count chickens so far in advance. Those chickens are not even yet glimmers in the eyes of a rooster, because that rooster himself is not yet a glimmer in the eye of another rooster.
More than anything, the Bucs need to win now. If they want to sell tickets in May, they should do everything they can to win in April.
If Duke is ready to go, every day that they keep him in the minors is lost money. And probably more lost money than they would need to shell out when he gets to arbitration--if he gets to arbitration. 2008 is a loooong time from now in baseball years.
Duffy sticks around
He didn't go down in the last round of cuts. Joe Rutter's report on the same here.
Nice AP photo of Mr. Duffy here.
Sunday, March 20, 2005
Saturday, March 19, 2005
Wigginton homers off Pavano
It drives me crazy when the Pirates hit home runs off "the best that money can buy," i.e., guys like Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano. I have learned that money buys and means everything in baseball. So I know that Brown and Pavano must have been having a little fun. I bet if we study the tape we'll see a big wink right before the "pitch" was lobbed in there. Or maybe the Yankees catcher standing up and whispering in Ty's ear.
. . . hey, I was right. There's Pavano laughing his ass off at the good joke. I wish they wouldn't toy with us like that.
How many pitches?
This from a story about the Phillies:
The Phillies are pushing their starting pitchers harder this spring in an effort to avoid another slow start.Under new pitching coach Rich Dubee, the starters already are hitting 70-to-75 pitches. They’re scheduled to hit 100 before spring training ends.
In previous seasons, the starters usually topped out in the 80s under former pitching coach Joe Kerrigan.
“If we get to 100 pitches, that means in the start of the season we can run ’em six and seven innings,” Manuel said.
A year ago, the Phillies’ five starters pitched into the seventh inning five times in a 10-11 April.
“There’s no sense taxing our bullpen early,” pitcher Brett Myers said. “We have to get ready for 100 pitches at some point. Sooner than later is better.”
That's Randy Miller's prose for the Bucks County Courier Times.
What are the Pirates doing under the great Spin? I don't have a clue. I don't see any pitch counts in my USA Today boxscores.
Duke, Duke, Duke
Two great articles out there about Zach Duke's performance against the Phillies. Paul Meyer writes one for the PG and Joe Rutter for the Tribune-Review.
Meyer talked to Brian Graham:
"He's done everything we expected him to do," minor-league director Brian Graham said. "He could absolutely pitch in the big leagues right now. From a development standpoint, it would be better for him to pitch in Class AAA to gain experience, to learn how to command the baseball a little better."But, at the same time, he throws the curveball for a strike, the changeup for a strike and he commands his fastball to a certain degree where he will be successful in the big leagues. If he gets more experience, he'll be more successful in the big leagues."
Curveball, changeup, fastball, everything in the zone.
Meyer also works in the obligatory nod to Zach's parents.
Both writers had the presence of mind to listen to Bobby Abreu. Here is Rutter:
The game was a rematch from last Sunday when Duke pitched three innings of relief against the Phillies and gave up one run and four hits. Bobby Abreu hit a solo homer off Duke in that game, but Duke got the upper hand last night when he struck out the All-Star right fielder twice."Revenge is always nice," Duke said. "I was able to execute my pitches a little bit better."
Abreu took notice.
"I can say he's going to be good," Abreu said. "He has a nice arm and nice command."
Duke's other strikeout victims were Jim Thome, Placido Polanco and Jimmy Rollins, the first time the Phillies shortstop had struck out all spring.
"I don't know how he is mentally, but he's got really good stuff," Polanco said.
Right now, if I'm management, I keep my mouth shut, make no promises, and be skeptical. Kinda like this:
Did the start raise Duke's stock?"It didn't lower it," manager Lloyd McClendon said.
In the end, you go with results. Even if it's plain to see that he could improve here or there, if he's getting results, I ride into Pittsburgh with him in the rotation. If all goes well, he won't need to make more than two starts in the first month. And almost anything could happen in those starts without forever destroying his poise.
He'll get a month to soak up the big leagues. He can get working on his Excel spreadsheet with notes about the NL Central hitters. Josa Mesa can teach him the mysteries of long toss. He's sure to be in the rotation at some point this season, so if he's getting results, let him stay.
The hidden cost of this is finding something to do with Ryan Vogelsong. I'd make him a swingman and let him pitch mop-up. Albie Lopez is on a minor-league contract so he can start at AAA and come up when needed. I believe Dave Williams has an option left. I'd send him down there to and let him take regular turns. That way if the Bucs lose a starter in April, they can promote Williams or Lopez or someone throwing regularly into the number four spot.
If, that is, they aren't big on the idea of seeing Duke again. I'm not a fan of moving young guys back and forth mid-season. Whenever he comes up, he should come up and stay up, regardless of the results in the first handful of starts.
Mackowiak and Redman
Great article by Joe Rutter out right now. Mackowiak defers to Tike as the team's only natural centerfielder. McClendon says Redman's defense has improved across the board.
Mackowiak's been improving his swing in hopes of making more contact.
After striking out almost once every four at-bats last year, Mackowiak resolved to shorten his stride so he would have better pitch recognition and not swing at so many pitches in the dirt.That's the truth. Down the stretch, when the games mattered most for those teams, they pretty much did what they pleased with the Pirates.The early results have been favorable. Mackowiak has struck out just twice in 26 at-bats.
"It has been paying off so far," he said. "It will be interesting to see what happens when we play the Cubs or Cardinals, teams that have a better scouting report on me."
Mackowiak understands he'll get his playing time one way or another:
"I go into every spring without a position, and it seems like I get my 300-400 at-bats during the year, so it's not something that is going to get me stressed out or worried," he said. "Things have a way of working themselves out."
I think he'll see more like 500 at-bats, but no one really knows. He's at least an average hitter against right-handers and he can play everywhere.
Finally, and I don't think we've discussed this much, yet another quote like this from the GM:
"Mackowiak is a viable option," general manager Dave Littlefield said. "It's a combination of what we get offensively from those two guys along with what fits defensively. Nothing is set in stone. We realize we need to score more runs. We also have to figure out what we think is a reasonable tradeoff comparing offense versus defense."
The Bucs were criticized a year or two ago for trying to build around pitching and defense, as though defense mattered much. One thing we can say about this team - it's not built around defense.
Friday, March 18, 2005
mid-March playing time guesses
I’m guessing the Bucs do not acquire anyone. No Juan Encarnacion, no Eric Byrnes, no Alex Sanchez, no Bobby Abreu. The Bucs should finish 2005 with roughly 5750 plate appearances. They had 5743 last year. I’ll guess 700 at first and left field, 675 everywhere else, and make up the difference (300) with a miscellaneous category. FWIW, 100 plate appearances roughly equals one full month of starting.
Jack Wilson: 600 ss
Craig Wilson: 600 ttl (225 1b, 350 rf, 25 lf)
Jose Castillo: 550 2b
Ty Wigginton: 550 ttl (475 3b, 75 misc)
Jason Bay: 525 ttl (400 lf, 125 cf)
Rob Mackowiak: 500 ttl (75 rf, 25 lf, 200 3b, 100 cf, 100 misc)
Matt Lawton: 450 ttl (250 rf, 200 lf)
Tike Redman: 425 cf
Daryle Ward: 400 1b
Benito Santiago: 350 c
Humberto Cota: 250 c
Bobby Hill: 200 ttl (100 2b, 100 misc)
Freddy Sanchez: 100 ttl (25 2b, 75 ss)
Brad Eldred: 75 1b
Ryan Doumit: 75 c
Ben Grieve: 50 lf, 25 misc
Chris Duffy: 25 cf
In my spreadsheet, that adds up to 37.5323 wins. The pitchers add up to 43.4576, for a total of 80.9899 wins.
Rubber arm
Joe Rutter wrote about Salomon Torres on Wednesday. Do most pitchers approach their pregame warmups with some kind of fear? Meadows' comments about the Mesa-Torres long toss puzzle me.
Duffy getting on base
Joe Rutter highlights this in his notebook.
The Pirates have used Redman's injury to take an extended look at Chris Duffy in center field. Duffy, ticketed for Class AAA Indianapolis, is batting .385 in his first major-league camp. He has one homer and seven RBI, but the most impressive number might be his .448 on-base percentage."We talked to him about the profile of a leadoff hitter, showing more patience, working the count better, getting to better hitter counts," general manager Dave Littlefield said. "His performance has been impressive."
They still ship him out with the next cut, I predict.
Redman a student of the outfield
John Perrotto profiles Tike.
Redman has logged many hours this spring with special spring training instructor Bill Virdon, the maestro of teaching outfield defense. Redman feels he has improved greatly."I have the speed to run down a lot of balls," Redman said. "My biggest problem has been the routes I take to balls. I've put in a lot of work this spring and I feel like I'm getting a better jump when the ball comes off the bat."
What does Bill Virdon think?
For the record, I'm rooting for Tike. If he can hit .315, steal a whole bunch of bases and not get caught, and play great defense in centerfield, we can probably live with whatever OBP comes with that. That's not a prediction but best wishes.
BMAT exam
Three days young, but worth your time if you missed it:
The biggest battle in Brandenton is for a roster spot that might best be simply described as “OF/1B”. The way this works out reads like a question out of the BMAT (Baseball Management Aptitude Test):Team A must fill four lineup spots each receiving approximately 700 plate appearances for the 2005 season, while using no more than seven roster spaces. Craig Wilson, Matt Lawton, and Jason Bay must start, because Lawton and Wilson are earning a lot of money, and Bay is the reigning Rookie of the Year. All three players can play either outfield corner, Lawton and Bay have each had limited experience in center field in the past, and Wilson can play first base.
Graham Koonce, Brad Eldred, and Daryle Ward can play first base, but not particularly well. Ward and Ben Grieve can both play the outfield corners—badly. Grieve and Koonce were “take and rake” players who now take more than rake. Eldred is a prospect who hasn’t learned to take, but sure can rake. Ward neither takes nor rakes terribly well.
Tike Redman, Rob Mackowiak, and Chris Duffy can all play center field, and none of them are expected to post much more than a .320 OBP in the majors. Redman and Duffy have reputations as good fielders, while Mackowiak is not a good centerfielder. Mackowiak can play many positions, and must be placed on the major league roster because of his salary.
Lawton, Koonce, Ward, Grieve, Redman, Mackowiak, and Duffy are all lefthanded hitters. Wilson, Bay, and Eldred are all righthanded hitters. Question: which of these players make the major league roster, and how do you distribute 2,800 plate appearances among those players?
Nice work from Derek Jacques at Baseball Prospectus.
I don't know about Redman, but me, I think a .330 OBP is a more reasonable expectation from Mack-a-whack. As some fans noticed right around baby bracelet time last year, he put up almost a good chunk - was it almost a full season? - of 900 OPS hitting between the end of 2003 and the start of 2004.
Jason Bay gets hits
I'm not sure what's the point of this study by Tom Meagher at the Hardball Times. But, I like it. Jason Bay looks pretty talented. Or is it luck? I'll go with talent for now and cross that disappointment bridge later, if we ever get to it. Talent it is.
Mike Emigh Pirates Preview
If you missed it, here it is. Mike pours out his soul with this one, as usual.
I agree with just about everything there, especially the Rocky and Bullwinkle quote, but don't agree that all this necessarily adds up to 70-75 wins, only 70-75 wins, or certainly 70-75 wins. Sometimes, the more we study a team in the offseason, the more specific our expectations will be. The more specific our expectations, the more certain they'll thoroughly fail.
A year ago we were all sure that Oliver Perez would be better off starting at AAA. Josh Fogg looked godawful too. Jason Bay had a bum shoulder and the CW said that Littlefield got fleeced in the Giles trade.
Remember that only two out of three players will perform at a level that is close to what's expected. This cuts both ways. Oliver Perez could be the next Balor Moore. Yes. We can prepare for something like that. On the other hand, Ty Wigginton could be the next Brook Jacoby. Craig Wilson could keep up the Jim Thome impersonation all year. If we are going to prepare for the worst-case scenario, we could also prepare for some best-case scenario. Odds are we'll get equal measures but it's not that uncommon for a team to get a big heap of disappointment or a big heap of pleasant surprise. Nothing is as certain as it seems to be.
Thursday, March 17, 2005
Unsettled
Alan Robinson of the AP sums it all up. Interesting quote about the "Wards, Mackowiaks, and Redmans" in there.
Dayun Q & A
Came out yesterday, and I missed it then, so I'll post it now. That's one of your greatest resources as a fan. Send the man questions. He put a call out for the "females."
Try "ladies," Dejan, and see if you don't get a better response. How many ladies prefer to be called "females"?
I'm full of the unsolicited advice. He's on the right track with understanding his mail, or, shall I say, his read of the writing of his readers. Permit me the liberty of providing further counsel. Not only is the negativity exaggerated because most amateur writers (and face it, we are all amateur writers) mistake exaggeration for forcefulness. Not only is the negativity sharper because most amateur writers mistake sarcasm for persuasiveness. Wherever there is loss, there will be bitterness. The Pirates have done a lot of losing so naturally we are bitter. Bitterness too easily becomes sarcasm. Since there is a lot of sarcasm on the radio and on the TV - at least on the bobblehead shows - it should be no surprise that Dejan gets a lot of sarcastic mail. I think this reflects more on the way we write than on the way we are. At least that's how I read the hyperbolic and sarcastic comments that I often encounter when I surf the internet to see what people are saying about the team. Brush it off - it's mainly just the distortion inherent to the medium right now.
But Dejan clarifies his objection to this stuff in the above link. He now wants "rational" writing. Good luck with that, Dejan. Sports is a place where rational people go to be irrational. Perhaps because the average Pirate fan is older, wiser, etc., perhaps because there is more than a small hint of truth and markmanship in the sarcastic barbs that flood his inbox, perhaps that's why he thinks there could be a day when Pirate fans will be mainly rational. My point is, even if we are mainly rational, that's not something we necessarily bring with us to the ballpark. Checking your rationality at the door can be, for some people, one of the main attractions of sporting events.
Let knuckleheads be knuckleheads. The very low standard for rationality in sports debate is something that makes sports levelling, and that's a big part, I'd guess, of the enduring appeal of all rooting interests.
Spin slow with Albie
Another John Perrotto report for the Beaver County Times and Allegheny Times, this one on Albie Lopez.
"When someone has a leg injury like that, you're really putting him at risk to hurt his arm," Williams said. "Once you start changing your delivery to compensate for a leg injury, you're asking for trouble."
Get him all healthy and start him in Indianapolis. Remember the Bucs may be able to do without a fifth starter until May, so I guess there's no great urgency to even have a fifth starter. The urgency is to determine which of the fifth starter candidates can get major-leaguers out on a regular basis.
All hail Spin
From John Perrotto's report on Vogelsong's strong effort yesterday:
"I thought Vogelsong threw well and the most important thing is that he threw strikes," Pirates manager Lloyd McClendon said. "Whenever he throws strikes, his stuff is as good as anybody in the league."In an effort to throw more strikes, Vogelsong made some mechanical adjustments with pitching coach Spin Williams in recent days that kept him from throwing across his body.
"I was cutting myself off in my delivery and not giving myself a chance (to throw strikes)," Vogelsong said. "The first inning, I got caught in between because I was trying out new stuff with my mechanics but still getting into bad habits with my old mechanics. After the first inning, though, I felt very comfortable."
Vogelsong, who has been guilty of outthinking himself in the past, then stopped and smiled.
"My motto for this season is: Just get them out," he said. "It doesn't matter how, just get them out."
This is how Ollie's emergence began--with some kind of Spring Training delivery adjustment. Maybe this is nothing, but it is a bit of evidence that his good day was more than just luck.
Wednesday, March 16, 2005
Pirates destroying Yankees
Sure is embarrassing. Sucks for us when Matt Lawton and Rob Mackowiak homer off Kevin Brown. If I say "hopeless" and stamp my foot hard enough, a whole wall of bobbleheads nod up and down in agreement.
Don't worry, kind readers, I won't get any crazy ideas in my head. Such as, the Bucs can hold their own with the likes of New York.
There's four more innngs to play. The Bucs will give back those runs, of course.
Baseball Toaster Pirates Preview
Derek Smart, formerly of All-Baseball.com, now writes Cub stuff for the new Baseball Toaster. He has a little fun with his Pirates preview. Link here. He may relish our misfortune a bit. Who can blame him?
He talked to some yahoo about the Bucs and obviously got a bunch of misinformation.
Feel free to wander over and tell him how much you agree with his take. Or maybe you have something cute to say about Mark Prior's elbow. Have fun with it.
Mack-a-whack
The Bradenton Herald profiles him and his Spring this morning. Maybe he could hit left-handed pitching if he was given more chances to practice. Last December I was thinking Rob would win at least half the third-base job. Now I'm thinking he'll win at least half the centerfield job.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Korean Choi Hoon Cartoon
Here it is. Let the translating guesses begin. Thanks to shayborg for the link.
High expectations for Ty Wigginton
When Wigginton came up with the Mets, I was intrigued by all the Brook Jacoby comparisons and what Jay Bell had to say about him that Spring Training. I was also intrigued by the gap between the stories I'd read about Wigginton and the stuff I'd read from statheads like the folks at Baseball Prospectus.
This year Mac and Littlefield are touting Ty Wigginton as a breakout candidate. And he is - definitely - a candidate for a breakout season. (The link is to Ed Eagle's report for MLB.com).
But I wonder, why the high expectations? The norm around here is usually the reverse, that is, not making promises or saying anything to get anyone's hopes up.
Come Hungry
We'll see how it wears, but the 2005 ad campaign makes a good first impression. Humor: good. Acknowledging our desire to win: good.
There must be some good joke potential with this. If we come hungry, how do we leave?
I'll be full of beer and Manny's win or lose ...
Rumor mill
Clay calls my attention to this Sportsline page citing John Perrotto rumormongering about Ryan Vogelsong and Termel Sledge. I dunno how I missed it the first time it came out. Must have been five in the morning or something.
Also on this page: news that Aramis Ramirez, a first baseman who bumbles OK at third, wants Adrian Beltre money.
Perrotto on
Classic John Perrotto for this Ides of March.
The only tinny note in that screed is the part about the Bucs having no chance of competing this season. It's bitter hyperbole. Of course they have a chance. It's not wildly improbable that the Bucs surprise, win 89 games, the NL Central, and contend in a series or two. If this kind of thing never happened. sports would not be sports.
I'm trying to speak precisely here. You can say "no chance" as a shorthand for "longer odds than most," and that may be rhetorically effective, especially if, like Perrotto, you are trying to put them blame for twelve years of losing where it belongs. But it's still illiberal hyperbole. Even if a team has extremely slim odds - say four times worse than your 2005 Colorado Rockies - what's the point of shouting that from the rooftops? You might as well get a bullhorn and announce to the neighborhood that little Cindy's lemonade stand has no chance of recouping the start-up costs Dad invested in lumber, sugar, and lemons.
P.S. Whoa is Blogger jammed. If this post appears like a dozen times, that's because I'm re-sending the post every few minutes until it shows up. The gravy days of free Blogger may be behind us. The number of new blogs has grown exponentially over the last few months and they appear to have all they can handle.
Sickels on the prospects
For his new Scoop blog, John Sickels grades out the Pirates prospects. Not much in the way of surprise or originality there. Sickels appears to agree with the frequent assessment of the system as chock-full of C and B prospects.
Wilbur, Mike, and other regulars on the internets were all over it in the comments.
Don't be stunned if one of the C or B prospects goes and has a breakout year. That happens. Ollie was a C prospect for Sickels. That said, don't ask me to predict which player will do this. I see Duke getting 15-20 starts for the Pirates this year with results something like what Sean Burnett (without the injury) turned in last year. Decent but not Greg Maddux, fully-formed and invincible. There will be bigger worries.
Zach Duke
This is from yesterday, but with Todd Ritchie's retirement, you might want to read again John Perrotto's report on Zach Duke.
Harts and Duffy
Joe Rutter reports that Jeremy Harts has a great arm. And Chris Duffy is making good with his chance to play more while Tike Redman nurses a bum wing.
Tike is another guy who won't finish the year with as much playing time as he saw in 2004. Or so I'm guessing and anticipating.
Ticket sales up
Karen Price reports for the Tribune-Review. Seriously though, they remain disappointing. More winning, more sellouts, more money for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez.
Dave Williams
It was a tale of two cities for Joe Rutter, who reported on Dave this way on Monday and this way on Tuesday.
Todd Ritchie's retirement leaves the Pirates with three available candidates for the fifth starter job. But Albie Lopez has been hobbled by a right calf injury and is not expected to take his turn on the mound Wednesday.Ritchie's retirement clarifies the situation somewhat. I'll stick to my prophecy that we find time for all those guys provided they prove they can pitch well enough to keep the Bucs in the game.That would seem to leave Ryan Vogelsong and Zach Duke as Williams' competition. Even with a strong start Wednesday, it may be too late for Vogelsong to get back in the hunt. That leaves Duke, who may no longer be a wild-card in the process. Although Duke has made only nine starts at the Double-A option, he has continued to open some eyes in camp.
Bobby Hill
Paul Meyer reports on our pinch-hitter.
As much as I love Bobby Hill for those pinch hits, my crystal ball says he sees less playing time in 2005 than he saw in 2004. The bench will be better and deeper this year.
Justin Reid
Paul Meyer profiles him for the PG.
Primarily a starter throughout the first four years of his minor-league career, Reid made quiet, steady progress through the system, reaching Nashville by the 2003 season.If Reid can hit 30 home runs for us, that would be sweet.He had a 3.02 ERA with Class A Hickory in 2000. He had a 2.25 ERA with Class A Lynchburg and a 2.54 ERA with Altoona in 2001. And he was 11-8 for Altoona in 2002.
His control was impeccable -- 14 walks in 110 innings with Altoona in 2001, for example.
And yet he was barely mentioned as a prospect because he was tagged as a soft thrower.
Which was interesting to Reid.
He came out of California-Davis in 1999 as the school's all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings (11.09). And he struck out 176 in 170 innings with Hickory in 2000.
"It's like saying a guy's not a home run hitter and he hits 30 home runs every year," Reid said.
Reid, 6 feet 5 and 225 pounds, perhaps finally broke through as a prospect last season with Nashville.
In 32 appearances, split equally between starting and relieving, he was 5-3 with two saves and a 3.96 ERA. In 122 2/3 innings, he allowed 112 hits, which includes 18 home runs, and 35 walks and struck out 121. He ranked second in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in strikeouts per nine innings (8.9).
Monday, March 14, 2005
Blogger
Several posts "disappeared" today. Blogger is a great service and one I highly recommend. But in the middle of the day, especially on Monday, it seems, when many people return to the internets after a few days off, it jams up. Used to be that anything I "posted" would find its way to my blog eventually - often it would appear in my list of posts but not on the site. That is, Blogger would receive the post but not republish the blog. Lately as posts have timed out - I click "publish post" and nothing happens for sixty seconds - I'm losing them altogether.
The solution is to be more patient and to post more in the off-peak hours. The service remains a great value. I mention all this not to complain about blogger but to explain about there being none of the posts here that I thought I blogged.
To make up for lost time, here's a shorter version of the lost posts:
No surprises with the recent cuts.
Duke should be trade bait for a guy like Kearns. But but we need starters so the timing is real bad for dealing him. I will enjoy keeping him around and seeing how his thread of our story turns out.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Big Country
For the Tribune-Review, Joe Rutter reports on Brad Eldred, who, like Ryan Howard of Philadelphia, shows impressive power when he can make contact.
When you have that much power, I wonder why you try to flaunt it at the plate. I'm not a hitting coach but training Eldred to double off the wall strikes me as the right idea. The man is going to hit home runs without trying. So why try? What he needs to do is make more contact. I'd guess that he'd gather a lot more singles than he expects. With that kind of power, the ball will get through the infield in a hurry.
Not hard, not straight
John Perrotto describes Mark Redman's changeup as well as his makeup for the Beaver County Times.
In fact, his changeup is his best pitch and his sinking fastball rarely reaches 90 mph. Redman learned his changeup at The Master's from coach Geoff Zahn, who pitched in the major leagues for 13 seasons from 1973-85.Redman strikes me as one of Littlefield's better acquisitions, but the only that can be shown or proven is on the field. My biggest concern with him actually concerns our defense. We don't want our guys going to sleep out there as Redman nibbles. They appear to be plenty challenged, defensively - with notable exceptions."The changeup is what really makes the difference for Redman," Marlins manager Jack McKeon said. "Hitters know it's coming and they still can't hit it, that's how good it is. He'll drive you to drink at times because he'll throw a lot of changeups off the plate for balls because he's trying to get hitters to chase.
"He'll run a lot of 3-2 counts but he'll also find a way to get guys out."
That is because Redman rarely leaves a pitch over the middle of the plate and has walked only 2.8 batters per nine innings during his career that has seen him go 48-51 with a 4.37 ERA in 139 games, 127 starts.
"I don't throw hard but I also don't throw many pitches straight," Redman said.
Albie Lopez
According to Ed Eagle, he is competing for a rotation spot. Albie reminds me of Wilson Alvarez. I'm not sure it's a fair comparison but whatever.
Bubble news
Paul Meyer summarizes how the 25-man roster would look if Spring Training ended today.
If the Bucs won't make room for Vogelsong as a mop-up swingman, then they will have to trade or release him. He's out of options. I doubt he could clear waivers. And many teams are so hurt for starting pitching, I think they'd be happy to take a flyer on a guy who throws as hard as RV.
McClatchy vs. Congress
It's not in the nature of most Pirate fans to respect or admire the owner, but I pretty much agree heartily with McClatchy's take on Congress's dog-and-pony-on-steroids show.
You don't have to be for or against the war to see that politicians today will do just about anything to keep our mind off the war in Iraq. And does anyone believe that the Republicans, one of the savviest political organizations in American history, honestly thought they could end Social Security as we know it? They don't call it the third rail of American politics without good reason.
This shouldn't be a controversial observation. If you are for the war, you should be thankful for whatever news displaces news of the grim reality of war. Everyone knows that American resolve for such things never lasts long. If you are against the war, you are probably bitter that people are so easily distracted from unpleasant but necessary chores such as following the news of our war in a faraway place. Congress, in their support for the war, and doing their best to look busy with other Important Issues.
Anyway, one cheer for McClatchy for openly questioning our nation's need to worry about something as trivial - in the grand scheme of things - as the place of steroids in American baseball.
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